The Tobias Harris Situation

[Malik Starks]

I've always thought the Magic viewed A.G as the future at SF anyway. I've wanted to keep Harris, but mainly in a 6th man type role. It's clear that his value to many other teams far outweighs that.

Unless I'm wrong they should be able to get significant value back considering his F.A is restricted.

[purpleswordfish]

I've always thought the Magic viewed A.G as the future at SF anyway. I've wanted to keep Harris, but mainly in a 6th man type role. It's clear that his value to many other teams far outweighs that.

Unless I'm wrong they should be able to get significant value back considering his F.A is restricted.

The Magic have a ton of SF's, so I'm not sure what they're thinking there. At the end of last season, I thought it was Harris as the starter and Harkless off the bench. Then they drafted AG, and I don't know what to think. I understand some think that he could play PF for the Magic, but I would want to see him play more at that position before passing judgment.

The more this season drags on, the more I think that the Magic might let Harris walk or do a sign and trade. I don't see any front office paying max - or close to max - money for a guy when they're not showing progress season over season.

[tiderulz]

I've always thought the Magic viewed A.G as the future at SF anyway. I've wanted to keep Harris, but mainly in a 6th man type role. It's clear that his value to many other teams far outweighs that.

Unless I'm wrong they should be able to get significant value back considering his F.A is restricted.

we wont get "significant" value because the receiving team will be worried about having to possibly match a max contract. value yes, significant no.

[NEM]

I stopped reading at "tobias for THJ and early"... Then started again and stopped for good when he said this deal may be too good for us. Go back to the Knicks forum.

[Orlwillbeback]

with uber talented guys like Aaron Gordon behind him who I believe is a max contract calibre player.

what have you seen that shows this?

That's my projection for him. His combination of size, athleticism, basketball skills, IQ and motor are special. He's always doing things on the floor and making plays that you look on the floor and realise no other player on either team could make that play or make it so effortlessly. Whether it's recovering to block a 3 pointer, catching the ball in traffic in transition, spinning and finishing at the rim. He makes special plays.

Lol sure man. He is really raw and needs to develop before he can really contribute. Hes a looooong term project.

[Neato]

I've been pretty concerned for a while that henny is fully prepared to let tobias walk. I'd imagine that weighed heavily into drafting Gordon and signing frye. Option 1 would be to sign Tobias to a reasonable contract, but I think henny's expecting that to be challenging and he's already created the back up plan in case his fears are realized. when I say back up plan I suppose I mean the plan that gives him the greatest flexibility in different scenarios rather than the plan where we assume the retention of harris.

[Skin]

The way this organization is handling Tobias is masterful.

First, we draft Aaron Gordon because although Tobias gives us scoring and rebounding, he doesn't give us what we NEED as a starting SF and the one thing that is holding him back from being a star and that is... DEFENSE.

Second, he was given a low ball offer by Hennigan last summer. He might be able to command more on the open market, but there was absolutely no reason for us to set that price. We have the power to match, we have the power to offer him the most, and we have the power to trade him. But there's one other thing that we have... the power to monitor his playing time... which leads to...

Third, JV has made the decision to bring Tobias off the bench. This is the one thing that I hoped they would do but I was unsure how or if they would be able to do it. I brought this up in many of the discussions we had earlier when I defended Henny's stance on Tobe's extension. I mentioned it because technically we have the ability to affect Tobias' market value by controlling his minutes... or should I say, controlling his stats... one of the biggest driving factors behind setting a player's market value.

It might be perceived as a douchey move, but it helps us keep him in the affordable range and better yet, I think it's the best long term fit for him on our team. Harris is the perfect 6th man for us. I hope he gets something in between a starter and a 6th man type contract. His scoring will be a nice punch off the bench, but there will still be lots of minutes for him with the starters. So my hope is that he accepts being a bench player for now and doesn't let his ego get in the way. Championship teams go waaay beyond just 5 starters making the difference and I hope Tobe can see that even coming off the bench that he can still be impactful and useful. So far he has said all the right things, so I'm optimistic.

As for the SF position... it's Aaron Gordon's opportunity to seize and so far he is doing his part to force the team's hand for sure.

As for the PF position... I'm not really worried because there are so many good options. Myles Turner (still my fav), Karl Towns, and WCS lead my draft preferences. If that works out, then we'll have plenty of money to keep our core together for a long time.

PG Elfrid Payton / someone
SG Victor Oladipo / Evan Founier
SF Aaron Gordon / Tobias Harris 6th man
PF Myles Turner or Karl Towns / Kyle O'Quinn
C Nikola Vucevic / Dewyane Dedmon

That's a team that has a very bright future for the next decade.

[tiderulz]

Third, JV has made the decision to bring Tobias off the bench. This is the one thing that I hoped they would do but I was unsure how or if they would be able to do it. I brought this up in many of the discussions we had earlier when I defended Henny's stance on Tobe's extension. I mentioned it because technically we have the ability to affect Tobias' market value by controlling his minutes... or should I say, controlling his stats... one of the biggest driving factors behind setting a player's market value.

It might be perceived as a douchey move, but it helps us keep him in the affordable range and better yet, I think it's the best long term fit for him on our team. Harris is the perfect 6th man for us. I hope he gets something in between a starter and a 6th man type contract. His scoring will be a nice punch off the bench, but there will still be lots of minutes for him with the starters. So my hope is that he accepts being a bench player for now and doesn't let his ego get in the way. Championship teams go waaay beyond just 5 starters making the difference and I hope Tobe can see that even coming off the bench that he can still be impactful and useful. So far he has said all the right things, so I'm optimistic.

i dont think this will work like you think it will. Teams will just use 3 years worth of starting stats for his value and production. They will see any lessening of his stats are due to moving to the bench, and also how bad a coach JV is.

As for the SF position... it's Aaron Gordon's opportunity to seize and so far he is doing his part to force the team's hand for sure

and i dont know what you have seen, he isnt forcing any hand on the position so far, at least in my opinion. we start him now, our PPG will drop drastically.

[Skin]

i dont think this will work like you think it will. Teams will just use 3 years worth of starting stats for his value and production. They will see any lessening of his stats are due to moving to the bench, and also how bad a coach JV is.

Of course it may not work out that way, but I like the Magic's attempt to do it.

Let me ask... Do you think there is a chance that teams will see the way the Magic starting using him off the bench and rethink his value?

Or will they just ignore that and look at those 3 years of Tobias as a starter and consider him a lead player worth more than $12M per year?

I think at the very least we give them food for thought. ...and even if it's a strategy by the Magic that doesn't work the way they want, I'm glad they can say they executed the strategy instead of wondering "what if" later on..

As for Gordon... there ain't no doubts.

[tiderulz]

i dont think this will work like you think it will. Teams will just use 3 years worth of starting stats for his value and production. They will see any lessening of his stats are due to moving to the bench, and also how bad a coach JV is.

Of course it may not work out that way, but I like the Magic's attempt to do it.

Let me ask... Do you think there is a chance that teams will see the way the Magic starting using him off the bench and rethink his value?

Or will they just ignore that and look at those 3 years of Tobias as a starter and consider him a lead player worth more than $12M per year?

I think at the very least we give them food for thought. ...and even if it's a strategy by the Magic that doesn't work the way they want, I'm glad they can say they executed the strategy instead of wondering "what if" later on..

As for Gordon... there ain't no doubts.

personally, i think they ignore what they are doing with him now. I think they will see right thru any attempt to downplay his value. Teams know what other teams do.

[Neato]

i take a different view on the bench situation. I'm not as concerned about how other teams will view the benching. if tobias stays on the bench, i take it as a sign that our team doesn't value him as much as some of us and that it would be reflected in what they're willing to match in FA.

[LBPTarHeel27]

- re-sign him (keep him)
Possible...I just don't think he fits in long term. He is going to continue being a very good scorer and above average rebounder...but I would only want him around long term if he were to accept a role off of the bench. As a starter, he is going to still want to be "the guy". I don't think he is the kind of player who will lead a team to a title.

- re-sign him (trade him later)
I think this is likely what will end up happening. I envision Harris having a nice, long career...but perpetually as "the guy" on bad teams (Melo-lite). I think that Gordon has more overall potential than Harris and we can't have a near max player getting the starting minutes that should be going to Gordon.

- let him walk
I just can't see Hennigan allowing such an asset walking for nothing.

- trade him before all star break
I don't think this will happen because of the potential return. There just isn't anything out there right now worth targeting. There's no big name disgruntled star. There's no young stud buried under an establish star (that we know of and would be willing to pull the trigger on for Harris).

All of that said, I think Harris re-signs. He will eventually be dealt in a deal (combined with other assets) for a piece that Henny believes puts us over the top.

I see our core as Payton, Oladipo, Gordon (until we see if the potential can be reached), and Vuc. Everyone else can be had in a big deal. A package of Harris + Nicholson + Fillers + Picks is what I think will end up being dealt.

[magicfanejc42]

I think all of this starts with who our coach is.

If we keep JV (Which is a bad choice) we should trade Tobes. JV does not use him effectively and I think we'd be trying to spend too much money on a guy not playing to his full potential.

I do think we will be losing JV and since that's the most likely scenario, I think keeping him over the summer should be the main priority.

The thing about our team is that we have solid, young, up and comers who could potentially be championship level. Vuc is a superstar big. Payton could be the best pure PG orlando has seen in 20 years. Oladipo is a top tier role player/semi all star. Tobias is an easy 18/7 guy now playing a messed up role.

With a good coach in place, andh a solid addition this team is easily in contention every year in the East.

[Nyce_1]

If Tobias would just embrace the Ginobli mentality, we'd be set. I don't get caught up in who's starting/coming off the bench; it's always been about the best fit within the units, and right now, TH doesn't fit well with EP, Vic, Vuc, & Frye. if he embraced the role and ran with it, I'd pay tobias $14m/year.

[eyriq]

It is tricky. 47/39/80 are really nice shooting numbers to go with18/7/2. But then I dig deeper and I see an offensive rating of 104 on 24% usage, a per of 17, and a WS/48 of .092 and I'm less impressed. He lacks playmaking, turns it over more than he should, is a bit of an ego, and lacks any elite physical skills. Ultimately matching an offer sheet and rolling with him is my choice but if we could trade him and our pick for Aldridge or Love id prefer that.

[OrlandO]

What teams will go after him, how much are they willing to offer? Are we sure he's going to command more than 12 million if his stats remain the same and we keep losing? Seems to me a common argument is that we shouldn't pay him big money because his impressive stats aren't helping us win games. If that's the case, why are we expecting other teams to overpay? Vuc and Vic aren't helping us win right now either, btw.

Harris is 22 with great work ethic and putting up 18/7 on good efficiency. What's interesting is last year many insisted he wasn't capable of such numbers as a SF. How many also expected him to be a 39% 3pt shooter already? What else is he capable of in the coming years? He's 22, so he's far from a finished product. Let's not forget he and the team are being handicapped by jacque vaughn. When you project Harris' future, you have to ask yourself what can he do with a more complete team playing in a better system under a competent coach. If we were winning more and making a real push to sneak into the playoffs, would he be considered as expendable? Because I think he'd look better, not the same or worse, if we didn't have the lousiest coach in the league to go along with a bench that so far has largely consisted of two healthy midgets with limited abilities, a backup pg that hasn't been on a good playoff team in a decade, an injured rookie, moe harmless and a handful of other young/inexperienced players.

I think we should keep Harris unless we have an opportunity to snag someone better. Unfortunately, the best free agents probably stay with their current teams and the big market teams will attract the leftovers. For the Magic, Tobias may be the only free agent starter that's actually available and worth paying this summer. So I say we keep Harris because we can't afford to lose talent at this point. If we can't make it work once our team is in the next phase, then we cash him in for another player and/or assets - he's so young and skilled that I think that's feasible, especially with the cap going up.

Also, why do people think we have such great depth at SF that makes Harris expendable? Earlier in the year people were saying we could let him go because we have Harkless... lol. Now it's Marble?
Marble as a starter through 7 games: 4 pts on 31% fg 21% 3pt, 36% ft, 3.1 reb, 2.1 ast, 11. stl, 1.1 tov in 23 mpg
In what world is a 56th pick putting up those numbers "better suited" to start on this team? Guys like Marble and Harkless should not even be in the discussion when talking about keeping or trading Harris at this point. Harris vs Gordon is a different story, but I would argue Gordon isn't quite ready and we could play both players big minutes next season, giving us time to evaluate the Harris situation under better circumstances.

[Skin]

i take a different view on the bench situation. I'm not as concerned about how other teams will view the benching. if tobias stays on the bench, i take it as a sign that our team doesn't value him as much as some of us and that it would be reflected in what they're willing to match in FA.

I also think that even if it wasn't stressed as much. I think he would be a great 6th man... probably one of the best. The fact that his defense is lacking makes him tough be our long term starter and expect to have a great team.

[Driguez]

Ever since we drafted AG I felt we wouldn't keep Tobes even though I was a Tobes advocate. At this point Tobes is "expendable" as AG has shown promise and he is absolutely a 3. I don't think Henny will let him walk for nothing, nor I think he will be dealt before the deadline. I do think he could be with Orl for another year (deadline next season) if nothing is available to Hennys liking this summer time.

[Bensational]

These quotes are in reference to why the Spurs didn't extend Kawhi and to the Phoenix - Bledsoe negotiations.

Some of this type of strategy could be what Hennigan will try to do in the offseason to create the type of condition that could lead to more favorable contract (and why he didn't negotiate against himself in extension talks).

everyone knows the Spurs would simply match the offer, so why tie up $15 million a year in cash when teams know they aren’t going to get the player? (Once Leonard signs the offer sheet that team can’t spend that money until the Spurs match, a process that can take up to three days. That’s an eternity in the height of the free agent frenzy of July.) This is the situation that kept Eric Bledsoe without an offer from another team for much of the summer (although there is more of a demand for good small forwards as opposed to point guards). Bottom line, there is zero chance the Spurs let Leonard go, the only question is how much they pay him.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... ith-spurs/

The deal ends a months-long stalemate in which Bledsoe and his agent Rich Paul sought a maximum contract while the Suns used the player's status as a restricted free agent as leverage to wait for favorable terms. Perhaps we can thank the Minnesota Timberwolves' sudden interest in Bledsoe for pushing both sides to sit down and reach a deal...

...Bledsoe got an extra year and more money overall (though about $2 million less per season) than his most likely max-contract figure without any serious competing offers. That's not a bad take for a player who missed 39 games to injury in his first season as a starter. However, the Suns didn't exactly overpay, because $14 million per year seems like the market rate for someone of Bledsoe's talent, production, and potential.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/eric-bledsoe-finally-re-ups-with-the-phoenix-suns--but-questions-about-future-remain-234239673.html

oh yeah, totally. this seems to be prevailing as the new way of handling player extensions and negotiations. convince teams you'll match anything, so that nothing else is offered, and force a player to take the Monroe route.

and i reckon that's going to be a major sticking point between teams and players at the next bargaining agreement.

[Bensational]

for anyone who thinks we might do the "extend him now, trade him later" approach, what teams do you think we'd look to deal him with? do any have the rim protecting stretch 4 we need?

or do we just trade him for some future assets - young players and draft picks?