Trade Targets (postcript on yesterday-other teams)

[Ron Swanson]

People are missing the point. You're not paying for the player Kanter is right now, you're paying him for the player you think he'll be 2 years from now. So of course, any contract valuation based on his current skill level is going to seem like an "overpay".

If you don't think his upside is that great, then that's a different story, but the statistics show that he's gradually improved on the offense and has the potential to be an elite post scorer, defensive inefficiencies aside.

Kanter not being a "great passer" at 22 years old isn't that big of a deal. Even Marc Gasol wasn't averaging over 2 AST per 36 until his age 25 season (albeit his 2nd year in the league).

[mattg]

People are missing the point. You're not paying for the player Kanter is right now, you're paying him for the player you think he'll be 2 years from now. So of course, any contract valuation based on his current skill level is going to seem like an "overpay".

If you don't think his upside is that great, then that's a different story, but the statistics show that he's gradually improved on the offense and has the potential to be an elite post scorer, defensive inefficiencies aside.

Kanter not being a "great passer" at 22 years old isn't that big of a deal. Even Marc Gasol wasn't averaging over 2 AST per 36 until his age 25 season (albeit his 2nd year in the league).

I don't believe in kanter or his work ethic. I've seen him since he was 17 years old and he's almost the exact same player now that he was then. Slightly better of course, but not the kind of progression you'd like to see for a kid who's been playing pro since then.

[brackdan70]

Just visiting and curious about Middleton? is he part of the Bucks future. He is an RFA this summer. How much do the Bucks match to keep him? From afar he seems like a pretty nice player, good shooter, good defender, can guard 2s and 3s.

[HurricaneKid]

Yeah not sure why people like kanter. He's a black hole in the post, he can sometimes bully smaller guys, but that's his entire game. Can't block shots, can't defend in space, isn't a passer, and an unimpressive jumpshooter. Wouldn't even consider paying him more than 7 mil. I'd rather just play zaza to bring much of the same stuff kanter brings.

I'd also rather keep Henson and see if he improves further. I'm not even a Henson fan at all, but his passing has made strides and he can potentially defend.

Scoring in the post and being able to draw double teams is an elite skill and something the Bucks lack sorely.

If he continues to develop, having a low post option on a team can do so many things for your offense.

Who gets doubled out of the post any more?? I mean outside of LeBron I don't know if there is much of a list. Al Jeff is possibly the premier post offensive player. But even if he shoots 55% (and he doesn't) its not that big an advantage over league avg scoring.

The reason there aren't more dominant bigs is that its not that efficient a play. And you more than lose the added efficiency by having your big put in the fulcrum of what the opposition is doing offensively. Which is why Pop took out TD and Vogel took out Hibbert in the closing seconds in the playoffs.

People need to stop saying this. The post big is going the way of the dodo. And Kanter isn't even any good in the post.

[raferfenix]

I think Giannis might be able to provide everything Henson can at the 5 spot within a season or so.

Now very well might be the time to sell high.

[Ron Swanson]

Yeah not sure why people like kanter. He's a black hole in the post, he can sometimes bully smaller guys, but that's his entire game. Can't block shots, can't defend in space, isn't a passer, and an unimpressive jumpshooter. Wouldn't even consider paying him more than 7 mil. I'd rather just play zaza to bring much of the same stuff kanter brings.

I'd also rather keep Henson and see if he improves further. I'm not even a Henson fan at all, but his passing has made strides and he can potentially defend.

Scoring in the post and being able to draw double teams is an elite skill and something the Bucks lack sorely.

If he continues to develop, having a low post option on a team can do so many things for your offense.

Who gets doubled out of the post any more?? I mean outside of LeBron I don't know if there is much of a list. Al Jeff is possibly the premier post offensive player. But even if he shoots 55% (and he doesn't) its not that big an advantage over league avg scoring.

The reason there aren't more dominant bigs is that its not that efficient a play. And you more than lose the added efficiency by having your big put in the fulcrum of what the opposition is doing offensively. Which is why Pop took out TD and Vogel took out Hibbert in the closing seconds in the playoffs.

People need to stop saying this. The post big is going the way of the dodo. And Kanter isn't even any good in the post.

Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol, Lamarcus Aldridge, Demarcus Cousins, Dirk Nowitzki, Anthony Davis, Tim Duncan, just to name a few...

[El Duderino]

The reason there aren't more dominant bigs is that its not that efficient a play. And you more than lose the added efficiency by having your big put in the fulcrum of what the opposition is doing offensively. Which is why Pop took out TD and Vogel took out Hibbert in the closing seconds in the playoffs.

As a bit of an aside on double teaming, Pop taking out Duncan may have cost the Spurs a ring late in Game 6 vs Miami when the Heat got game and series saving offensive rebounds on back to back possessions, each leading to a three while Timmy was sitting on the bench.

[drew881]

People are missing the point. You're not paying for the player Kanter is right now, you're paying him for the player you think he'll be 2 years from now. So of course, any contract valuation based on his current skill level is going to seem like an "overpay".

If you don't think his upside is that great, then that's a different story, but the statistics show that he's gradually improved on the offense and has the potential to be an elite post scorer, defensive inefficiencies aside.

Kanter not being a "great passer" at 22 years old isn't that big of a deal. Even Marc Gasol wasn't averaging over 2 AST per 36 until his age 25 season (albeit his 2nd year in the league).

Not a fan of this idea. Maybe it is different for your evaluation of bigs as opposed to other positions, but replace Kanter with someone roughly the same age. Replace Kanter with BK's name and few will agree with these statements to pay a player based on who he will be 2 years from now.

[emunney]

Kanter not being a "great passer" at 22 years old isn't that big of a deal. Even Marc Gasol wasn't averaging over 2 AST per 36 until his age 25 season (albeit his 2nd year in the league).

Kanter isn't just not a great passer. Kanter is a very poor passer and a turnover machine (considering how little he passes). He's been a worse passer and rebounder at every stage of his career than Al "What We're Talking About When We Talk About Black Holes" Jefferson.

[skywalker33]

Nuggets get: Henson/Stauskas
Jazz get: Thompson/Middleton
Kings get: Ilyasova/Clippers 2017 1st
Bucks get: Lawson/Kanter

Wishful thinking...REALLY wishful thinking !!!!

[Ron Swanson]

People are missing the point. You're not paying for the player Kanter is right now, you're paying him for the player you think he'll be 2 years from now. So of course, any contract valuation based on his current skill level is going to seem like an "overpay".

If you don't think his upside is that great, then that's a different story, but the statistics show that he's gradually improved on the offense and has the potential to be an elite post scorer, defensive inefficiencies aside.

Kanter not being a "great passer" at 22 years old isn't that big of a deal. Even Marc Gasol wasn't averaging over 2 AST per 36 until his age 25 season (albeit his 2nd year in the league).

Not a fan of this idea. Maybe it is different for your evaluation of bigs as opposed to other positions, but replace Kanter with someone roughly the same age. Replace Kanter with BK's name and few will agree with these statements to pay a player based on who he will be 2 years from now.

It's a calculated risk, sure. It's also a player-by-player basis, but that's how you have to approach restricted free agency. I'd offer Kanter roughly the max of what I'd offer Knight (4-yrs $48 mil), and while that may be an overpay to a lot of people, it's the realistic amount at which you'd force a team to consider matching.

Back in summer of 2013, people thought that an offer of 4-yrs $44 mil was "overpaying" for Jeff Teague. Back in 2011, people thought the same for DeAndre Jordan's deal. JaVale McGee's 4-yr $40 mil extension is an example of it not working out, but thus are the perils of retaining young players through RFA.

Paying free agents for their "actual value" is a myth. You pay market value, and market value for bigs in the NBA is always going to be "over-paying" if you don't take into account a player's growth arc and upside.

[mattg]

People are missing the point. You're not paying for the player Kanter is right now, you're paying him for the player you think he'll be 2 years from now. So of course, any contract valuation based on his current skill level is going to seem like an "overpay".

If you don't think his upside is that great, then that's a different story, but the statistics show that he's gradually improved on the offense and has the potential to be an elite post scorer, defensive inefficiencies aside.

Kanter not being a "great passer" at 22 years old isn't that big of a deal. Even Marc Gasol wasn't averaging over 2 AST per 36 until his age 25 season (albeit his 2nd year in the league).

Not a fan of this idea. Maybe it is different for your evaluation of bigs as opposed to other positions, but replace Kanter with someone roughly the same age. Replace Kanter with BK's name and few will agree with these statements to pay a player based on who he will be 2 years from now.

It's a calculated risk, sure. It's also a player-by-player basis, but that's how you have to approach restricted free agency. I'd offer Kanter roughly the max of what I'd offer Knight (4-yrs $48 mil), and while that may be an overpay to a lot of people, it's the realistic amount at which you'd force a team to consider matching.

Back in summer of 2013, people thought that an offer of 4-yrs $44 mil was "overpaying" for Jeff Teague. Back in 2011, people thought the same for DeAndre Jordan's deal. JaVale McGee's 4-yr $40 mil extension is an example of it not working out, but thus are the perils of retaining young players through RFA.

Paying free agents for their "actual value" is a myth. You pay market value, and market value for bigs in the NBA is always going to be "over-paying" if you don't take into account a player's growth arc and upside.

I don't think anyone disagrees with your overall premise of how players get paid. People do disagree about your evaluation of kanter's talent level and remaining potential. Kanter isn't a BK, Gordon Hayward gym rat type who works his tail off to improve which makes you feel a bit better about gambling on future improvement.

[emunney]

Yeah, the thing about Knight is that I would be shocked if he ever showed up out of shape, and I'd be surprised if his skill level didn't continue to improve. The risk with him is that he's a poor decision maker who thinks he should be a full-time decision maker.

Kanter isn't markedly better at anything than he was we he entered the league, and also I expect him to be fat within a few years.

[Giannis Parker]

Just visiting and curious about Middleton? is he part of the Bucks future. He is an RFA this summer. How much do the Bucks match to keep him? From afar he seems like a pretty nice player, good shooter, good defender, can guard 2s and 3s.

If Middleton comes at a price tag of 8m or less, I feel many of us here would agree that Middleton is a core piece.

Beyond that is where we start to see some split decisions.

I think Middleton is a good fit starter or a very good role player off the bench, worthy 5th or 6th guy on any team in the league atm.

[mattg]

Yeah, the thing about Knight is that I would be shocked if he ever showed up out of shape, and I'd be surprised if his skill level didn't continue to improve. The risk with him is that he's a poor decision maker who thinks he should be a full-time decision maker.

Kanter isn't markedly better at anything than he was we he entered the league, and also I expect him to be fat within a few years.

Kanter is a prime contract year type of guy. Former highly touted prospect who hasn't improved much since he was drafted and in that time has looked lazy and nonchalant towards his career. Suddenly this season he's playing a bit harder and is more productive but he hasn't really made any significant improvements to his game(skill level hasn't noticeably improved, body/conditioning look the same, etc). Maybe he's matured, but more likely is that he's just playing a little harder knowing it's his contract year. I mean we're talking about a kid who has had plenty of opportunities to do nothing but work on his game and he hasn't. Not the type of player I gamble on.


As for the list of guys who get double teamed, we need to make a distinction here. There are big men who get doubled when they touch the ball because of their skill and ability to generate offense, and then there are big men who get doubled when they touch the ball because they are turnover prone. Dwight is a perfect example of that. He's not a good enough decision maker nor post scorer to design an offense based around getting Dwight a touch and then letting him make a decision based on the defense. But he still gets doubled a lot because he's a turnover machine when that happens. That's what I see with kanter.

[BleedGreen1989]

Just visiting and curious about Middleton? is he part of the Bucks future. He is an RFA this summer. How much do the Bucks match to keep him? From afar he seems like a pretty nice player, good shooter, good defender, can guard 2s and 3s.

If Middleton comes at a price tag of 8m or less, I feel many of us here would agree that Middleton is a core piece.

Beyond that is where we start to see some split decisions.

I think Middleton is a good fit starter or a very good role player off the bench, worthy 5th or 6th guy on any team in the league atm.

What would you say his strengths/weaknesses are?

I can look at the box scores and get an idea but you guys watch him every night...

[eagle13]

The Jazz thought enough of Kanter to let Jefferson go - just like Favors convinced them to let Milsap leave. Jazz made this choice after watching Kanter develop for two years. If Gobert had not appeared out of no where Kanter would be the entrenched starter and you would not be able to pry him away from the Jazz.

At the level we can pay I am not expecting one guy to do it all - instead I look at the team. Imagine OQuinn Jones Leonard and Kanter all able to rebound well and all able to step out and hit a 3. That really opens the middle for Giannis Parker and Knight to operate inside. All 4 can convert their free throws which many bigs cannot. And as for defense and passing - its true some players are much more natural than others but I trust Kidd to get the most out of his team no matter who plays. Jones and OQuinn are both good shot blockers and all 4 have some girth to hold their ground against other big guys. Add that giannis holiday and knight are decent defenders and there is something for Kidd to work with

[VooDoo7]

Unfortunately, I expect the trade deadline to come and go, with us sitting tight. 147 pages for absolutely nothing.

[eagle13]

Unfortunately, I expect the trade deadline to come and go, with us sitting tight. 147 pages for absolutely nothing.

probably

[Prince12]

Sit tight would be a let down but still more positive then a win now move we have done in the past.