2014-2015 NBA MVP Discussion

[INKtastic]

your argument is wrong because there were people with better or equally good stats as dirk whereas this is not the case with current season. if someone plays more than 65 games while leading their team to close to 55 wins then that player is in the race if he has great stats.

To suggest Curry's numbers aren't comparable to LeBron's is disingenuous at best, flat out dishonest at worst.

And I'm not saying LeBron can't even be in the race, of course he can, but to instantly suggest him missing games is more of a positive than a negative for him, that's not necessarily the case, and Dirk from a few years ago illustrates that perfectly.

it's not a positive that he missed games. It's does help demonstrate his value, though.

When Nash won his 2nd MVP, many of the voters pointed to how poorly the Suns played in the games he missed in their reasoning, only they got it wrong because their record without him wasn't as bad as they kept saying.

In this case, LeBron is the difference between being the cavs being a lottery team and a championship contender. It's not just his own stats, it's the tremendous impact he has on elevating the rest of the team.

[Tim_Hardawayy]

your argument is wrong because there were people with better or equally good stats as dirk whereas this is not the case with current season. if someone plays more than 65 games while leading their team to close to 55 wins then that player is in the race if he has great stats.

To suggest Curry's numbers aren't comparable to LeBron's is disingenuous at best, flat out dishonest at worst.

And I'm not saying LeBron can't even be in the race, of course he can, but to instantly suggest him missing games is more of a positive than a negative for him, that's not necessarily the case, and Dirk from a few years ago illustrates that perfectly.

it's not a positive that he missed games. It's does help demonstrate his value, though.

When Nash won his 2nd MVP, many of the voters pointed to how poorly the Suns played in the games he missed in their reasoning, only they got it wrong because their record without him wasn't as bad as they kept saying.

In this case, LeBron is the difference between being the cavs being a lottery team and a championship contender. It's not just his own stats, it's the tremendous impact he has on elevating the rest of the team.

You're right about the Nash case, and I was going to bring him up to point to the same thing, although the sample size of Nash missing games was a lot smaller when I looked it up (actually only 11 games combined between the 04-05 and 05-06 seasons, and only 4 in 05-06). The other thing that swayed it for Nash was Amare being out in 05-06, so everyone said "Well, he's CLEARLY the MVP of that team".

LeBron doesn't quite have something similar, he's more in the Shaq to the Heat situation, where his arrival obviously made them better, but it coincided with other really good pieces too (Wade in Miami, Love in Cleveland). Now, their play without LeBron obviously lessens the impact Love's presence will have on voters for sure, so I don't know, its difficult to say.

I still think LeBron is without a doubt the best overall player in the NBA. I just don't know that he can win the MVP, and after he lost it last season coming off his hot February and a 61 point game, its hard to see him as a lock this year with his team sitting at 25-20. But we'll see.

[MisterHibachi]

David Aldridge, who I'm pretty sure is a voter, has LeBron at #5 in MVP rankings, so he's right behind the leaders.

His top 5:
Harden
Curry
Gasol
AD
LeBron

[SideshowBob]

Cleveland In/Out (adjusted for HCA/SOS)

Season (45 G)

+1.5 SRS, +5.3 Offense, +3.4 Defense

---------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron OUT, Irving | Love IN (7 G)

-6.8 SRS, -3.7 Offense, +5.2 Defense

---------------------------------------------------------------

Lebron IN, Irving | Love IN (33 G)

+4.6 SRS, +8.4 Offense, +2.6 Defense

---------------------------------------------------------------

Since Lebron's return (7 G)

+11.8 SRS, +14.6 Offense, +1.9 Defense

---------------------------------------------------------------

I have breakdowns for GS and OKC as well, will update and post those later. Might do one for Dwight and Houston as well.

[Dubeta]

impact-wise, lebron is head and shoulders above anyone else. To win the mvp, hes gotta get a good team record though. GSW are the modern day bulls who are on a roll, it will be tough to top that.

[SideshowBob]

How good do folks think the cast around Curry is (in terms of talent, fit, coaching, etc. not just talent alone)? Say they do end up winning ~70 games and finish in the vicinity of 11-12 SRS. That's in line with the best single season teams of all time (71/72 Bucks, 92/96/97 Bulls, 72 Lakers, etc.). Is the cast around Curry really that much stronger than the casts around those team's best players, if stronger at all?

If the answer to that is no, what does that say about how good Curry is (box-score stats aside)?

[Nebula1]

Please edit thread to add poll. TY

[stayeduptolate]

Please edit thread to add poll. TY

this I agree with^^^^^^^^

[EvanZ]

How good do folks think the cast around Curry is (in terms of talent, fit, coaching, etc. not just talent alone)? Say they do end up winning ~70 games and finish in the vicinity of 11-12 SRS. That's in line with the best single season teams of all time (71/72 Bucks, 92/96/97 Bulls, 72 Lakers, etc.). Is the cast around Curry really that much stronger than the casts around those team's best players, if stronger at all?

If the answer to that is no, what does that say about how good Curry is (box-score stats aside)?

The Nuggets completely fell apart when Iguodala left and he's not even starting on this team. LOL

[TaylorMonkey]

Replace curry with any point guard in the league that can pass well and just okay with 3 and finishing at rim and this warriors team would probably only lose 5-6 games more by season's end.

Lol. Curry leads the league in +/- He's the most potent offensive player in the league.

You think they would only drop 5 games if Livingston was kind of okay at the 3? Because according to that claim, "kind of okay at the three" is the apparent difference between a top offense and a league bottom one.

The extents some go through to discredit Curry is pretty amazing. Where were you all when the team had roughly the same talent level last year? I don't remember any Lebron/Harden homers claiming we were stacked and a contender even without Curry then.

[gmoney411]

impact-wise, lebron is head and shoulders above anyone else. To win the mvp, hes gotta get a good team record though. GSW are the modern day bulls who are on a roll, it will be tough to top that.

This year he isn't. Harden is putting up monster numbers this year. I won't argue that LeBron still isn't the bigger impact player but the way Harden and LeBron are playing this year LeBron might only be heads above him. Shoulders may be coming soon though with the way Lebron is heating up.

[Shock Defeat]

Replace curry with any point guard in the league that can pass well and just okay with 3 and finishing at rim and this warriors team would probably only lose 5-6 games more by season's end.

Lol. Curry leads the league in +/- He's the most potent offensive player in the league.

You think they would only drop 5 games if Livingston was kind of okay at the 3? Because according to that claim, "kind of okay at the three" is the apparent difference between a top offense and a league bottom one.

The extents some go through to discredit Curry is pretty amazing. Where were you all when the team had roughly the same talent level last year? I don't remember any Lebron/Harden homers claiming we were stacked and a contender even without Curry then.

Yeah those people were calling Mark Jackson dumb for underachieving with the squad that he had. There was no reason that with the players Jackson had at his disposal the Warriors were below average in the West in terms of points scored.

Curry's team is ridiculous compared to what Harden has, which is a mediocre coach, a bunch of defensive players, and a questionable Dwight. The bench relies on old man Terry for crying out loud. When Dwight was out, Harden alone kept that team afloat while they were starting an undrafted rookie Tarik Black and playing a scrub in Dorsey at center. You know who also started some in that time? Isaiah Canaan who right now is back in the D-League.

[SideshowBob]

Replace curry with any point guard in the league that can pass well and just okay with 3 and finishing at rim and this warriors team would probably only lose 5-6 games more by season's end.

Lol. Curry leads the league in +/- He's the most potent offensive player in the league.

Not only does he lead the league, he's currently on pace to shatter the single season raw +/- total record (96 Jordan +980). Steph is at +547 through 42 games, which is on pace for +1068 through 82 games.

[Doctor MJ]

your argument is wrong because there were people with better or equally good stats as dirk whereas this is not the case with current season. if someone plays more than 65 games while leading their team to close to 55 wins then that player is in the race if he has great stats.

To suggest Curry's numbers aren't comparable to LeBron's is disingenuous at best, flat out dishonest at worst.

And I'm not saying LeBron can't even be in the race, of course he can, but to instantly suggest him missing games is more of a positive than a negative for him, that's not necessarily the case, and Dirk from a few years ago illustrates that perfectly.

it's not a positive that he missed games. It's does help demonstrate his value, though.

When Nash won his 2nd MVP, many of the voters pointed to how poorly the Suns played in the games he missed in their reasoning, only they got it wrong because their record without him wasn't as bad as they kept saying.

In this case, LeBron is the difference between being the cavs being a lottery team and a championship contender. It's not just his own stats, it's the tremendous impact he has on elevating the rest of the team.

I'll put it this way:

If the Cavs end up with the best record in the NBA this year, then LeBron probably does win MVP. The issue with LeBron's candidacy is that there's no reason to think they are going to end up with any kind of record that anyone would have thought was remotely impressive before the season started.

With regards to Nash's 2nd MVP, a couple things to remember:

1) Competition that year was just weak. Detroit was easily he best regular season team and they had no legit MVP candidate. Kobe was the most salient player, but his team lost as much as it won. In that particular year, the Suns winning 55 games didn't play as a weak record for an MVP candidate the way that 55 likely will this year when compared to Curry's Warriors, and of course LeBron's Cavs probably won't even match that despite playing in an awful conference.

2) Nash went the entire season without Amare, who was basically the mascot of anti-Nash-for-MVP proponents everywhere. The Suns were thus seen as a jaw dropping success all things considered.

3) While I'm actually inclined to agree that Nash got too much credit for willing a team of nobodies to victory (I think he was more impressive the prior year), I'm not sure what you mean by "their record without him wasn't as bad as they kept saying". He missed 3 games that year. The Suns lost all 3 games. That brought them to 2-8 over the first 2 years of Nash's run there. Pretty bloody awful.

[Doctor MJ]

Not only does he lead the league, he's currently on pace to shatter the single season raw +/- total record (96 Jordan +980). Steph is at +547 through 42 games, which is on pace for +1068 through 82 games.

Curry's raw +/- was also already insane last year. But yeah now it's clearly on an all-time level.

There really should be no MVP debate right now among people who are basically accepting of how the award typically works.

Want to insist LeBron's still the king until someone clearly dethrones him? That's fine.
Want to champion the jaw dropping Anthony Davis on the grounds of him being more outstanding? Cool.

If you're starting by looking at value though, you have 2 options: 1) Curry or 2) Outright denial of any stats that give an actual glimpse of what impact a player has on his team's efficacy.

[C3H6N6O6]

Replace curry with any point guard in the league that can pass well and just okay with 3 and finishing at rim and this warriors team would probably only lose 5-6 games more by season's end.

Lol. Curry leads the league in +/- He's the most potent offensive player in the league. /quote]

Not only does he lead the league, he's currently on pace to shatter the single season raw +/- total record (96 Jordan +980). Steph is at +547 through 42 games, which is on pace for +1068 through 82 games.

go search for klay's +/- too then.

[laika]

Lol. Curry leads the league in +/- He's the most potent offensive player in the league. /quote]

Not only does he lead the league, he's currently on pace to shatter the single season raw +/- total record (96 Jordan +980). Steph is at +547 through 42 games, which is on pace for +1068 through 82 games.

go search for klay's +/- too then.

Klay is #2 in the league, but well behind at +485. The site I use has Curry at +553.

There are only 12 players in the league with half as many net points as Curry, and 4 of those are his teammates.
Of the top 13 in the league, 5 are Warriors, 5 are Clippers and 3 are Hawks.

[Doctor MJ]

Lol. Curry leads the league in +/- He's the most potent offensive player in the league. /quote]

Not only does he lead the league, he's currently on pace to shatter the single season raw +/- total record (96 Jordan +980). Steph is at +547 through 42 games, which is on pace for +1068 through 82 games.

go search for klay's +/- too then.

The use of raw +/- is for the benefit of those who don't already follow the more sophisticated +/- stats, and hence tend to not see any meaning when they get mentioned. To summarize what the family of stats tell us:

1) Curry has the best raw +/-.
2) Klay and others also have very strong raw +/-, as one would expect given that they play with the league leader in the stat.
3) More sophisticated metrics which do things to separate between teammates, and thus identifying who the true keystone is, show a more dramatic advantage for Curry relative to his teammates than the raw metrics given - which is also as one would expect.

In short: Curry's not doing it alone, but there's no real reason to doubt that he's playing a classic alpha superstar's role when it comes to being crucial actually having that well-oiled machine look well-oiled.

[WhatsMyName]

There really should be no MVP debate right now among people who are basically accepting of how the award typically works.

If you're starting by looking at value though, you have 2 options: 1) Curry or 2) Outright denial of any stats that give an actual glimpse of what impact a player has on his team's efficacy.

Except some people with actual ballots (and other media people) are saying Harden is the MVP right now, but what what do they know about how the award actually works.

But on the other hand I really like your "I know it better so stop debating" stance, quite funny seeing things like "there should be no debate" and "outright denial" thrown around when it's really a close race and it comes down to personal preferences which one you prefer (shown by said differing opinions of media/voting people).

[INKtastic]

To suggest Curry's numbers aren't comparable to LeBron's is disingenuous at best, flat out dishonest at worst.

And I'm not saying LeBron can't even be in the race, of course he can, but to instantly suggest him missing games is more of a positive than a negative for him, that's not necessarily the case, and Dirk from a few years ago illustrates that perfectly.

it's not a positive that he missed games. It's does help demonstrate his value, though.

When Nash won his 2nd MVP, many of the voters pointed to how poorly the Suns played in the games he missed in their reasoning, only they got it wrong because their record without him wasn't as bad as they kept saying.

In this case, LeBron is the difference between being the cavs being a lottery team and a championship contender. It's not just his own stats, it's the tremendous impact he has on elevating the rest of the team.

You're right about the Nash case, and I was going to bring him up to point to the same thing, although the sample size of Nash missing games was a lot smaller when I looked it up (actually only 11 games combined between the 04-05 and 05-06 seasons, and only 4 in 05-06). The other thing that swayed it for Nash was Amare being out in 05-06, so everyone said "Well, he's CLEARLY the MVP of that team".

LeBron doesn't quite have something similar, he's more in the Shaq to the Heat situation, where his arrival obviously made them better, but it coincided with other really good pieces too (Wade in Miami, Love in Cleveland). Now, their play without LeBron obviously lessens the impact Love's presence will have on voters for sure, so I don't know, its difficult to say.

I still think LeBron is without a doubt the best overall player in the NBA. I just don't know that he can win the MVP, and after he lost it last season coming off his hot February and a 61 point game, its hard to see him as a lock this year with his team sitting at 25-20. But we'll see.

There are three things to look at for LeBron

Cavs record with LeBron - 1-8 (.111)
Cavs record without LeBron - 24-12 (.667)
Heat record without LeBron - the Heat replaced LeBron with a former all star SF in Luol Deng. They've dropped from .659 last year to .455 this year.

Clearly the Cavs need to get their overall winning percentage up while he continues to play like he has since his return from injury for him to have a chance of winning (and Golden State needs to lose a few more games than their current 70 win pace). Since his return from injury, though, LeBron has a PER of 30.3 and the cavs have the best offense in the league (Team ORtg 117.3 over the last 7 games from stats.nba.com)