Call me crazy.....

[ElGee]

It became a big deal because there is a precedent and culture of cheating, nothing to do with having a bulls eye on your back

That's weird, I've been following the team during Kraft's entire ownership and I can't remember this "culture of cheating." Can you explain it to me? Off the top of my head, I remember the following infractions:

-Rodney Harrison suspension for HGH
-Patriots fine/draft pick over violating a league memo (not a rule, fyi)

Having a hard time remembering any other. Belichick was brought on under some debatable circumstances, although that was essentially ironed out through a trade. I'm wondering if this is different than the cultures of other teams:

-Minnesota (players using hidden devices to pass urine tests)
-NY Giants (Jim Burt caught greasing up his arms)
-Denver (filming another team's practice...and manipulating the salary cap)
-San Francisco (also manipulating the salary cap)
-San Diego (All-Pros using steroids)
-Pittsburgh (head coach tried to trip a returner during a game)
-Carolina (Not just steroid use, a steroid ring)
-NY Jets (same videotaping violation as Patriots, also had a coach trip a player during game)

That's pretty much all I got off the top of my head. The point here is not really to absolve anyone because "everyone does it," it's to point out that the notable incident in NE history is only notable precisely because of how good the Patriots are ("they beat us!? No fair!"). The incident is about a league-wide culture of stealing signs, many were doing it, and the thing that what most people use to justify a "culture of cheating" label (or as Jerome Bettis called them "known felons") was the violation of a memo for a practice many others were implementing. A practice that, from a competitive and "spirit of the law" / ethical standpoint was significantly smaller than some of the violations listed above (cooking the books is a fairly colossal competitive advantage).

The NFL has always had a signal-stealing culture. The Dolphins were accused of stealing the Patriots audio signals in 2006. Others have been accused of embedding an on-field mike to record QB audibles. Back in the day, Paul Brown listened to another team's radio frequency during the game to hear their plays. I don't love the competitive approach of "if it's in the open it's fair-game" when it comes to signal-stealing, but I also think it's beyond nonsensical to claim some team has a unique "culture of cheating" when one of their players is popped for PED's because clearly many (most?) pro athletes use forms of PEDs.

But maybe I'm missing something -- what off-field rules did they violate?

[El Turco]

there is a league wide culture of videotaping signals?really? because i dont remember any other team losing a first round pick and get fined total of million dollars. i love the patriots have every right to cheat because other teams must have doing stuff too mentality.

[bwgood77]

Tom Brady didn't need to. They would've and did kill the Colts without it. And it didn't play a difference in the game. But Tom Brady went ahead and did it anyway.

If they in fact did it (and I think this has been blown out of proportion and I hate the Pats) it certainly could have made a difference in the Ravens game. Rarely when someone gets caught for something it's the first time they did it.

[Bank Shot]

Saw this on rotoworld and it's pretty darn convincing. It looks like the Pats may have been doing this for a while.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible



So the difference in fumbles per offensive play between the Pats and the second place Texans is as big as the difference between the Texans and the 24th ranked Chiefs.

In terms of players who played for the Pats and then left:

As a whole, these players fumbled once every 98 plays when donning a Patriots uniform, but once every 67 plays when playing for any other NFL team.

So either the Pats are a massive, massive outlier or something fishy is going on.

Here's a Boston site summarizing what the Sharp guy is saying:

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/25/patriots-fumble-nearly-impossible-rate/LCgrlUR9qgxDsIgcal9dUI/story.html

Interesting stuff for sure.

[ElGee]

there is a league wide culture of videotaping signals?really? because i dont remember any other team losing a first round pick and get fined total of million dollars. i love the patriots have every right to cheat because other teams must have doing stuff too mentality.

Either you are deliberately ignoring the facts or you don't know. Just google it -- a number of people are on record about their practices. I'd start with Jimmy Johnson.

[ElGee]

Saw this on rotoworld and it's pretty darn convincing. It looks like the Pats may have been doing this for a while.

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible



So the difference in fumbles per offensive play between the Pats and the second place Texans is as big as the difference between the Texans and the 24th ranked Chiefs.

In terms of players who played for the Pats and then left:

As a whole, these players fumbled once every 98 plays when donning a Patriots uniform, but once every 67 plays when playing for any other NFL team.

So either the Pats are a massive, massive outlier or something fishy is going on.

Here's a Boston site summarizing what the Sharp guy is saying:

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/2015/01/25/patriots-fumble-nearly-impossible-rate/LCgrlUR9qgxDsIgcal9dUI/story.html

Interesting stuff for sure.

It's really bad "analysis" though. Using the same data set and counting methods as him (which ignore if a fumble occurs on special teams or not):

1) The New England Patriots don't even finish first in his own study! He just decides, for no apparent reason, to ignore dome teams because 3 of the 9 dome teams are in the top-4 in this time period along with New England. This, despite dome-team skilled players and outdoor teams having a nearly identical fumble rate of 1.42% (dome) when compared to outdoor teams (1.47%). (League average was 1.45%.) The Lions, a dome team, were dead last at 1.85% from 07-14.

2) He ignores that Quarterbacks account for sometimes half the fumbles in this (small) sample. If we look at skill-position players only by touches to generate fumble%, the Patriots skill-position player are 6th since in fumble% since 2007 at 1.23%. Here's the list:

Skill-Position Fumble% by team since 2007:
1. San Diego 1.01%
2. Atlanta 1.06%
3. Baltimore 1.09%
4. Indianapolis 1.09%
5. Green Bay 1.19%
6. New England 1.23%

I can't wait to see part III: "The San Diego Chargers fumble rate is super super impossible."

3) His entire premise is circular and depends on the assumption that fumbling is a random act. He offers no evidence for this, and has no explanation for why some quarterbacks, for instance, fumble far less than others. The top fumbling quarterbacks happen to be scrambling QBs with poor protection. It's as if the center-exchange, protection, and a QBs pocket awareness/risk-taking and ball=handling have nothing to do with fumbling in his universe...just because.

4) The next day he goes on to "analyze" Patriot fumbles for players in New England and on other teams. Does he do for this for any other team? No, of course not. Does he offer any statistical tests or analysis of variance? Absolutely not, because that would demonstrate that his findings don't really show anything abnormal at all.

To wit, 35 players had at least 1 touch with NE and another team from 07-14. Their fumble% in NE was 0.97% and 1.50% elsewhere. On the surface, that looks like a crazy difference. Except if you aren't told that this accounts for just 37 total fumbles in New England! Variance is a major player. Removing Brandon Tate alone -- someone who had most of his fumbles outside of New England on special teams, which warps his fumble% using this methodology -- the difference changes to 0.96% in NE and 1.27% elsewhere. Removing Danny Amendola, a player with the same ST issue, changes it to 0.97% in NE and 1.11% outside.

See how the numbers change from slightly below league-average to near the top by removing 2 players? That's called a sample-size issue (not to mention a reflection of the problems with not separating special team fumbles).

5) He fails to look at any other teams (again, ignoring if this behavior is abnormal). See, the author is trying to get hits by making a point, but his point can't be found in the data so he has to be very, very selective about what he presents. (Again, just subtly removing dome teams from the graph that's being passed around the web.)

Do you know what the difference is for Atlanta Falcon players in ATL and on other teams during the same time period using the exact same methodology?

Fumble Rates for Falcon players who also played on other teams, 07-14
In Atlanta: 0.77% fumble rate
On other teams: 1.24% fumble rate

That's a lower overall rate (0.77%!? -- nearly half league average) and an absolute change greater than the one observed in New England. All the more impressive considering they are flying past the league best in this mark -- it's one thing to start below average, but they are starting around the 7th-best rate in the league and finishing orders beyond what would be the league-best rate. Yet, no mention of this from the author.

That this is being passed around the web simply demonstrates a total lack of statistical knowledge, football knowledge and the power of bias -- people who want to believe something are going to look for things that validate that belief.

[Higga]

It's cheating. Pretty much that.

Cheating is too wide of a term. I mean committing pass interference is cheating too. There are degrees. What the Pats did IMO was like a parking ticket. I really don't think it's that big of a deal at all. It's mostly a media witch hunt trying to take down the top dog Pats. Journalists wanting to make a name for themselves as being the guy/gal that broke the big story that destroyed the Patriots.

Cheating is cheating. The rule is clear. It wouldn't have been done if there hadn't been a perceived advantage. It's clear that it was done. Eleven out of twelve footballs of the Pats? None for Indy?

I'm not saying this is an earth shattering injustice, but it certainly is cheating, and should be punished.

Okay, but the NFL rules state it should be a fine. So then, just fine them and move on with it.

[Revived]

Tom Brady didn't need to. They would've and did kill the Colts without it. And it didn't play a difference in the game. But Tom Brady went ahead and did it anyway.

If they in fact did it (and I think this has been blown out of proportion and I hate the Pats) it certainly could have made a difference in the Ravens game. Rarely when someone gets caught for something it's the first time they did it.

Yea I was truly expecting Baltimore to beat NE, didn't think they would choke away a 14 pt lead.

[GuyClinch]

If deflating a football was really that good for QBs - the league would have passed rules years ago that make it allowed. You know I am right they have been making it harder on defenses for years now. The DB can't do anything..