JV on pace to do what only 8 centers have done

[Undefeated]

I have to ask, what is the benefit of what we currently do then? There has to be a reason why they would employ this defense and it can't just be turnovers.

The scheme is similar to what the Heat ran with Bosh as a PNR detonator. The main purpose is to force turnovers, but I think it also stymies the offense snuffing out the action before it even initiates.

[Clementine9]

Out of curiousity, how do other 7footers compare within 10ft, like Gasol, Duncan, Perkins, Bogut etc.

You know I like you man, but this is what Clementine was insinuating im "afraid of resistence" about. I would like to know too, and maybe one day ill sit down and go over all the numbers of them and post here, but its a big undertaking. I dont have the time or effort to do all that, hopefully someone can, but because its you adn I appreciate all the insider stuff, ill do the four you listed. It would be easier if I didnt have to go to each profile individually.

Inside 10 ft DFG% differential/overall
Jonas -2.6, overall +3.3
Gasol -5.2, overall -3.2
Duncan -7.4, overall -4.6
Perkins -7.6, overall -4.0
Bogut -15.7, overall -9.7

Edit: And just because Amir is in my tabs, -3.7, overall +1.2

I'm just trying to think, if Casey switched up his defence to how some of the other teams utilize their slower bigs on D, less ball pressure from guards/gambles on the ball, wouldn't that prevent less exposure for JV within the 10ft area? Its an honest question, our D hasn't been elite so an adjustment to our approach shouldn't be totally shrugged off. I appreciate you looking it up for me, I didn't expect you to do it during working hours so big thanks on taking the time to do it

Jonas was a -5.1 last season from less than 10 feet. He was a -.9 overall. For the first 30 games of this season he was -4.7 from less than 10 feet. Amir was -5.2 from less than 10 feet and a -1.1 overall last year. So what's changed since last season? They've both suffered. Jonas's stats in this area have suffered pretty dramatically in the last month (Amir's haven't, they've improved).

Whether it's deliberate or coincidence they're bringing Jonas OUT of the paint more, and Amir seems to be defending more closer to the rim. He's holding up fine but Jonas isn't defending well farther out. Again, not sure why it would be so different from last year.

[MrBojangelz71]

But, But, But

Demar makes a big impact....

Why can't both be good? There was no mention of DeMar here as last I checked he is not a centre. we have both (And Lowry).

In short; Shut the **** up ya dumb ass troll.

Snot had a rough year last year, being the laughing stock of this board. In his one dimensional mind, he feel that Demar coming back from injury as some validation. His but hurt over the fact Demar showed this board that Snot knows very little about this game, and what makes a players successful in it. Basically, he has no cred here.

Put him on ignore, like the majority of this board has done.

[stealthmode]

Have a seat Jonas

[Gntts]

So where did you prove this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence?

What do you mean prove? Prove this team is going somewhere with its guard heavy offense.

I think a strong inside presence, whether it be a C or PF is a necessity for the success of a team in the playoffs, with limited exceptions related to highly dominant wings.

There is nothing 100% true about what I say, just like there isn't anything 100% true about what anyone trying to predict a sporting outcome comes up with.

The onus on you to prove your ramblings, not me.

This is the issue, you use vague supposition and pronounce it as fact. You want discussion, but excuse stats because they dont give context? Yet youre able to say this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence? Do you see the problem here??

Ill note the limited exceptions as the out to your narrative.

You know whats 100% true, statistics.

Have not laughed so hard in a long time.

[Rapcity_11]

Jonas averaging 13 and 9. He is only playing 27 mpg, and this is why I can't stand Casey. If Jonas plays 8-10 more minutes a game he would average 16 and 10 easily.

Are you a JV fan first, or a Raptors fan first?

I am a Raptor fan and I understand and see when a player is being held back. Casey holds back JV and it will affect this team in the long run. JV's numbers don't lie. Same goes for JJ.

Then maybe don't phrase your reason for JV didn't to play more because he'll put up numbers.

If Lou played 36 mins a game he would put up 20 PPG easily. The numbers don't lie.

(See how ridiculous that sounds...)

[Rapcity_11]

What do you mean prove? Prove this team is going somewhere with its guard heavy offense.

I think a strong inside presence, whether it be a C or PF is a necessity for the success of a team in the playoffs, with limited exceptions related to highly dominant wings.

There is nothing 100% true about what I say, just like there isn't anything 100% true about what anyone trying to predict a sporting outcome comes up with.

The onus on you to prove your ramblings, not me.

This is the issue, you use vague supposition and pronounce it as fact. You want discussion, but excuse stats because they dont give context? Yet youre able to say this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence? Do you see the problem here??

Ill note the limited exceptions as the out to your narrative.

You know whats 100% true, statistics.

Have not laughed so hard in a long time.

Uhhhhh, how are they not? I'd love to hear.

[Thespianoid]

What do you mean prove? Prove this team is going somewhere with its guard heavy offense.

I think a strong inside presence, whether it be a C or PF is a necessity for the success of a team in the playoffs, with limited exceptions related to highly dominant wings.

There is nothing 100% true about what I say, just like there isn't anything 100% true about what anyone trying to predict a sporting outcome comes up with.

The onus on you to prove your ramblings, not me.

This is the issue, you use vague supposition and pronounce it as fact. You want discussion, but excuse stats because they dont give context? Yet youre able to say this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence? Do you see the problem here??

Ill note the limited exceptions as the out to your narrative.

You know whats 100% true, statistics.

Have not laughed so hard in a long time.

But statistics are 100% true. At explaining certain things which they are built to attempt to explain.

Statistics are very useful in certain capacities. They can tell you about what is happening with more precision than the naked eye. However, their accuracy depends on the methodology - how those statistics are generated. There can be flaws which produce data that isn't representative of the intended measurement.

The trouble with statistics is when sometimes people use/accept them as a tell-all. What they don't do is explain WHY the outcomes are the way they are. Which, in my opinion, is more important when trying to devise solutions to problems. That's where interpretation and context comes in.

On topic now...

I think there are a few things most people can agree on:

1. Jonas is only a decent defender right now. His rim protection is good, but anything outside of the paint and his effectiveness falls drastically.

2. Jonas has very good offensive ability. Of course not perfect and still with noticeable issues, but very good nonetheless.

So, with those in mind, where I'm seeing disagreements is the approach that should be taken with regards to his development and utilization within a team concept.

My thoughts:

1. With his defensive issues, what is the best solution? Of course, that depends on what the priorities are. Do you try to maximize wins now or do you sacrifice some current wins for the possibility of the return being greater down the line? And if so, to what degree do you swing one way or another (how often do you decide to sacrifice a chance at a win for gained experience, etc)

Also, what about modifying the defensive scheme? It has merit of course, but to what degree do you commit to a system rather than the players you have?

2. This one is a little bit more complicated. Jonas' issues offensively mean he cannot effectively shoulder a larger role consistently at this point in time. But should there be concessions made to prepare him for one down the line? It likely is already being done, just at a slower pace than most would like to see. I'd argue that the context of his usage must be considered when evaluating both his effectiveness and his deficiencies. Most notably, his turnovers and passing. I think there's much room for tweaking to improve both. I would like to know how often JV is involved in DHO plays that lead to drives compared to other bigs around the NBA, and how often his teammates move off the ball when he receives the ball in a post up situation.

Plus, can Jonas be involved in offensive sets aside from a screener and left block isolations? Maybe at the elbow/high post with cutters? Set duck-ins/tweaks to P&R plays which turn into mid-key post ups? Early offense rim runs/post ups?

[DarkKnight]

PER is one stat, mostly measuring box-score stats and vastly neglecting defence. It is useful, nonetheless. Some other stats:

The below are factual statements as of 6:40pm ET on January 30, 2015. All relate to Jonas Valanciunas.

------
368th in the NBA in Real +/- (this is a plus-minus stat adjusted for teammates, opponents, etc., so no complaints that it doesn't take that stuff into account). 65th of 76 player categorized as Centers.

Raptors score 108.7 points per 100 possessions with him playing (1187 of 2231 mins)
Raptors score 117.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench (1044 of 2231 minutes)
Raptors allow 109.2 points per 100 possessions with him playing (1187 of 2231 mins)
Raptors allow 104.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench (1044 of 2231 minutes)
-----

It is possible that though his personal box-score stats have led to such an impressive PER, his +/- and on/off stats show him being a huge negative to the team. A player who is a large defensive negative in his team's system would hurt his RPM and his defensive on/off, but would not impact his PER. From an offensive perspective, a player can put up great numbers personally, but can impact the flow of an offense in such a way as to reduce the total efficiency of scoring his team experiences. Both of these seem to be the case with Jonas, based on the numbers above.

[ForeverTFC]

PER is one stat, mostly measuring box-score stats and vastly neglecting defence. It is useful, nonetheless. Some other stats:

The below are factual statements as of 6:40pm ET on January 30, 2015. All relate to Jonas Valanciunas.

------
368th in the NBA in Real +/- (this is a plus-minus stat adjusted for teammates, opponents, etc., so no complaints that it doesn't take that stuff into account). 65th of 76 player categorized as Centers.

Raptors score 108.7 points per 100 possessions with him playing (1187 of 2231 mins)
Raptors score 117.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench (1044 of 2231 minutes)
Raptors allow 109.2 points per 100 possessions with him playing (1187 of 2231 mins)
Raptors allow 104.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench (1044 of 2231 minutes)
-----

It is possible that though his personal box-score stats have led to such an impressive PER, his +/- and on/off stats show him being a huge negative to the team. A player who is a large defensive negative in his team's system would hurt his RPM and his defensive on/off, but would not impact his PER. From an offensive perspective, a player can put up great numbers personally, but can impact the flow of an offense in such a way as to reduce the total efficiency of scoring his team experiences. Both of these seem to be the case with Jonas, based on the numbers above.

I like where this is going, and would like to throw more into the mix.

Raptors allow 111.6 points per 100 possessions with Terrence Ross playing
Raptors allow 105.7 points per 100 possessions with Terrence Ross on the bench

Raptors allow 108.4 points per 100 possessions with Vasquez playing
Raptors allow 109.6 points per 100 possessions with Vasquez on the bench

No one will claim that Vasquez is a better defender than Ross. However, Vasquez performs better within the context of this team and its defensive philosophy. ON/OFF numbers don't necessarily indicate who is the BETTER defender, rather who best fits the environment.

This gives support to both those who say that Valanciunas hurts this team as a defender, and those who say the team is putting him in position to fail, and that's when stats get tricky.

[Volcano]

PER is like an accumulation of boxscore stats or something. A lot of big men who are on finishing ends of plays have high PER, but they're not the ones creating their own shots. I dunno if JV's per minute stats would regress with a few more minutes.

% of FG that are assisted:

Tyson Chandler .747
DeAndre Jordan .745
Kyle Korver .936
Jonas Valanciunas .545
James Harden .151
Mason Plumlee .706
Dwight Howard .607
Kevin Durant .493
Anthony Davis .720
Tyler Zeller .774

Compared to other extremely efficient players JV is doing just fine creating his own shot.

yeah..didn't need stats to prove my point

I've been complaining for the past two years that we should be spamming P/R's with our bigs like Jose did

[JV4MVP]

So was in the 3rd quarter or early 4th that JV got his double-double. 7/7 FG btw.

Congrats to Casey for sitting him in OT.

[Got Nuffin]

I think I'm one of the few people that doesn't have an issue with Casey benching Jonas. Is Casey harder on Jonas than he is on his veterans? HELL YES. Is Casey holding Jonas back offensively? YES. He could be getting 16-17 & 10 on another team probably. But I think Casey understands that JV is potentially some kind of hybrid mix of a less athletic Tyson Chandler defensively and a speedier Zydrunas Ilgauskas offensively. That player would be one of the better centers in ANY basketball era.

That will probably only happen if it's drilled into Jonas right now that he must be accountable defensively. If he wants court time and shots, he needs to be perfect defensively. If Jonas is of the mindset that he can get to that level, he'll take it on as a challenge and eventually you'll see that player who is a force on both ends. We don't need Brook Lopez on this team, we need that player that Jonas potentially can become.

I honestly think, for all Casey's faults, this is what he is trying to get out of Jonas.

[Boogie!]

I was excited do until I saw Drummond and Lopez on the list... Meh meh.