Coach Nick's analysis; the effect of Pau on defense

[Sugarless]

Horford is the best show and go center in the game. Using Pau's defense against his worst possible kind of matchup is not particularly helpful by Coach Nick.

What about the stat that his Defensive FG% at the Rim is 30 in the league among bigs. Do we play Horford every night?

There are very few stats that say Gasol defends the rim poorly

- The stat that has Gasol defending .488% at the rim says he's doing it better than Marc Gasol, Omer Asik, Anthony Davis, Joakim Noah
- Gasol guards guys to shoot .075% LESS than what those players shoot normally on shots within six feet
- The only problem area statistically with Gasol on his defense has been jump shooting (guys make .039% MORE with Gasol guarding them).

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/2200/tracking/defense/?Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

The problem isn't Gasol's ability to defend the rim; it's a lack of empty possessions. Right now the Bulls are #1 in the entire league at defending the rim (.583% v league average of .630%) and Gasol is a main reason why.

Right now the issue with Gasol on the floor is lack of turnovers (12.2% turnover rate would be 7th lowest in the league for a team) and too many offensive rebounds (DRB rate of 73.4% is 3% lower than when Gasol sits and is a bottom 10 team ranking). Simply put, the Bulls aren't getting enough empty possessions when Gasol is playing but it's NOT because he's allowing teams to make a ton of shots at the rim nor are the Bulls giving up too many shots at the rim.

Right now in 100 possessions, the Bulls get 11.5 turnovers (that's 1.8 LESS than league average and good for 29th in the league). Right now the Bulls have to defend the rim 88.5 times out of 100 possessions and they give up 105.5 points on those trips, good for 1.19 points. The number one defense in the league is Golden State at 100.4 points/100 but they get turnovers 14.3 times meaning they give up 100.4 points over 85.7 possessions, 1.17 points per trip without turnover.

Your post is right on point from top to bottom and it's plain obvious that the Bulls have much deeper defensive problems than their rim protection, but I'm afraid it's a lost cause with some guys. No matter what the measurable facts say, there are certain people who have their mind set on something and they're just unable to move from there, since it would mean admitting some kind of defeat (actually it shouldn't be that way, it's not a tragedy to be wrong, but that's how you feel when you insist on defending the same ideas over and over and over again regardless of the arguments against them).

[DanTown8587]

Bulls last two games:

Dallas - 109.0 Defensive Rating
11.8 TOV Rate
22.0% Offensive Rebound Rate

San Antonio - 90.2 Defensive Rating
11.9 TOV Rate
19.1 Offensive Rebound Rate

Bulls on the year - 105.6
11.5 TOV Rate
25.9 Offensive Rebound Rate

The Bulls holding San Antonio was the 244th time this year someone shot sub .400% from the floor; it was only the 50th time that the team who did also didn't grab 10 offensive rebounds.

The Bulls have won the rebounding edge (via TRB%) 29 of 45 times this year and are 21-8 when they do win the rebounding edge and 8-8 when they do not.

[Rerisen]

Blog-a-Bull throws the kitchen sink at Pau.

No, I didn't write this. Geez, its too harsh even for me. But it seems Zach Lowe is far from alone. (Hat tip Game6 on the GB)

Pau Gasol was selected as an All Star starter by the fans. This is, honestly, a joke. Pau Gasol is the Bulls fourth best big man. Yes, fourth best. Behind Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and even rookie Nikola Mirotic. The idea that Gasol was somehow one of the best big men in the entire Eastern Conference is ridiculous. At first glance, it's easy to see why Pau has received this recognition. Pau is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, nearly 3 assists, and over 2 blocks in his roughly 35 minutes per game. Those certainly seem like All Star numbers. However, it's pretty likely that no one is putting up emptier stats than Pau Gasol is this season.

Offensively, the Bulls routinely force-feed Gasol isolations on the block, allowing him to post-up while everyone else mostly stands around watching him, not cutting, not moving, nothing, just watching. Pau goes to work down low and if he has a mismatch, he scores with relative ease. Put someone with some defensive skill in the post on Pau, though, and he is almost entirely neutralized. This has happened over and over this season. It happened recently against the Heat in Miami, as Gasol (along with Taj Gibson) was dominated inside by Hassan Whiteside, scoring just 13 points on 16 shots. In the Bulls' last game against the Cavs, with the defensively stout Timofey Mozgov as his primary matchup, Gasol went 4 of 14 from the field and scored just 11 points. In the Bulls' last game against the Washington Wizards' beastly frontcourt Gasol went 4 of 11 from the field and scored just 13 points in 33 minutes. Simply put, too often, Gasol's offense, the place where he actually provides some value, disappears when confronted with a tough matchup. Sure, put Pau on the floor with a depleted Bucks front line and he might drop 46, but against legitimate post defense, Pau does not shine the way a 7 footer with his size and skill should. He gets bullied.

Defensively, Gasol is an absolute trainwreck. Despite his heavy rebound totals, Gasol almost never boxes out anyone. His rebounding totals are primarily the result of his being around the rim for the vast majority of the game and catching whatever misses come off in his immediate vicinity.

Looking at ESPN's Real Plus-Minus tells a similar story. Pau is rated worse than Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson & outpaces Joakim Noah only slightly (Pau is +1.04 to Noah's +.69 per 100 possessions), but Noah has been significantly limited by his health all year. The Noah we've seen the last few games as he seems to return to health is a significantly better player than Pau.
....
start Taj, or better yet, Mirotic. The young Montenegrin has been absolutely buried at the altar of Gasol, despite being easily the Bulls best fit offensively in the starting lineup alongside Noah & Rose. He opens things up so much for the Bulls drivers and he racks up steals at more than triple the rate of Pau, helping to mitigate some of the Bulls defensive issues. It's no surprise that he rates out (by Real +/-) as the Bulls very best big man so far this season. Unfortunately, he's been getting the typical Thibodeau rookie treatment, since the Bulls other big men have gotten mostly healthy. Among 2-man Bulls combinations that have played at least 100 minutes together, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Joakim Noah all have Nikola as their best partner by Net Rating. Mirotic is Rose's second best partner, behind Aaron Brooks. You'll note that those are the Bulls starting players, minus Gasol.

All of this is to say Nikola is a perfect fit alongside the rest of the starting unit. He should be playing with those guys. But Thibodeau won't put him in there, both because he doesn't like to trust rookies, but also because Pau is the type to whine in the media about his minutes and role. See, for example, his public expression that he wanted to close games prior to the season even starting.

[fleet]

This is the new defensive team around Pau I want the Bulls to sign. We can dump Naz, Cam, and Snell to make room. Thibs can sub offense for defense in the last 5 Minutes with the other guys.

[READYTOGO]

Pau has never been a good defender and never will be. Who is hurting this team most is Noah and his atrocious ofense and DEFENSE. He is a total non-factor for us this season. Add to that Kirk Hinrich playing 25 plus minutes and you will start undestanding where the problems are coming from.

Stop blaming Pau, this is ridiculous. Bulls without Pau this year are a lottery team.

[chitowndish]

This is one of the bigger problems facing the team and if I had my way I'd probably rather run Taj and Gasol and Noah and Mirotic and I would rather do a true platoon type of rotation where they get similar minutes (I actually felt this way in the beginning as well, I just didn't like the idea of trying to run 2 C's when a lot of the league isn't even running one). With the way Noah's been playing and him coming back from injury we may actually be able to get away with it. I mean honestly could he really be that ticked about Taj starting after Taj has patiently come off the bench when he probably deserved to start for so long? We also have the built in excuse "it isn't that Taj is a better player it's just that Noah needs to get back from his injuries". If we can't do that I agree it's worth trying switching Pau and Noah so Noah defends C and Pau defends PF. If Pau gets burned at least we have that last line of defense and it could help Noah not having to chase people around the perimeter with a bum knee. Like if both Pau and Noah are going to get burned on the perimeter at least put the best defender at C.

I also think an underrated issue facing our defense is communication. Everyone laughs about Boozer's D but I think he at least did a great job calling out screens and keeping that communication going. I saw a video the other day that showed how Gasol just doesn't do this and Butler and Rose just go crashing into screens without realizing they are there which takes them completely out of the play and then Gasol can't cover for it which compounds it and are some of the plays were Gasol looks the worst because he just gets burned with his foot speed against a perimeter player with a head of steam. So some of this issue with perimeter guys getting into the lane is because our guys are getting picked off by the screens because they aren't aware of them. It isn't just horrible D by Rose either this is happening to Butler as well. So even though Boozer was a horrible defender at least he helped the other guys by communicating which provided them the best opportunity to defend.

To me though the interesting thing is all of this has to be completely obvious to Thibs. The guy is a defensive mastermind so I just can't believe the fans are seeing this stuff and somehow Thibs is in the dark on this. I really think Thibs is kind of letting the team embarrass themselves until they decide to get on the same page with him. Either that or he just doesn't give a crap anymore but I think it's more just waiting for the players to come around to his way of thinking.

[GetBuLLish]

Blog-a-Bull hit the nail right on the head. An awful signing that is made worse by the fact that it was so predictably bad.

[Mech Engineer]

I think the Noah /Pau combo is going to determine Thibs's fate. It is obvious as anything that they are killing spacing and forcing Derrick to throw up wild shots.

Noah/Pau are not even finishing when Rose misses a shot. It was obvious in the GS game when the Bulls players always seemed to have a defender on them except for Noah while multiple guys on GS would look free for a few seconds more.

Thibs has to adjust the big man pairing first regardless of all the +/- stats because those stats might look good with some hot shooting.

[umfan83]

I think the article is slightly over the top but I do agree with many if not most of the points. I think signing Pau was a mistake, but one we could work around and maybe turn into a benefit in the playoffs when we need points and can dump it to someone like him. Playing him 35+ mins and playing him primarily at center next to Jo is hurting the Bulls imo

[GetBuLLish]

Yea, the stupidity in signing Gasol is being significantly compounded by awful coaching decisions.

Maybe the FO and Thibs should stop bickering and starting realizing that they are both the problem.

[tomacorandom]

You can puke all the trash on Pau you want but you can't lie the people who are watching all the games. His defense hasn't been worse than the overall team defense. You can say this BS 100 times but it won't become true.
7$ million with 18-12, a winner with championship experience, a great passer who see how their teammates chuck many easy buckets that could be assists, He has defended well 1vs1 and he is 5th in blocks.

And bringing what a crappy Blog says to raise this post is a non-sense, even a bigger non-sense that what that blog says

[tomacorandom]

I think the Noah /Pau combo is going to determine Thibs's fate. It is obvious as anything that they are killing spacing and forcing Derrick to throw up wild shots.

Noah/Pau are not even finishing when Rose misses a shot. It was obvious in the GS game when the Bulls players always seemed to have a defender on them except for Noah while multiple guys on GS would look free for a few seconds more.

Thibs has to adjust the big man pairing first regardless of all the +/- stats because those stats might look good with some hot shooting.

The same combo that beat the best team this year. It's a lack of effort. When they want, they win everyteam in this league. Whatever is the lineup

[MGB8]

Pau should be coming off the bench in the role they had for Taj - a focal point of offense. Niko should probably be starting despite his "lost-ness" to get him in rhythm when possible and to bring spacing and thus open up the offense, bring energy, etc. Plus, more game time means more experience for the playoffs, when he'll need it.

Sub-out Niko first for either Pau or Taj (depending on offense/defense needs), then Noah.

[GetBuLLish]

The same combo that beat the best team this year. It's a lack of effort. When they want, they win everyteam in this league. Whatever is the lineup

The Utah Jazz beat the best team this year as well. If Utah just plays with more effort, they should be title contenders.

[tomacorandom]

The same combo that beat the best team this year. It's a lack of effort. When they want, they win everyteam in this league. Whatever is the lineup

The Utah Jazz beat the best team this year as well. If Utah just plays with more effort, they should be title contenders.

Your logic is **** awesome. Can you tell me when has Utah won @GS @SAS @DAL, LAC, WAS (x2), MEM, ATL, TOR, POR, HOU?

[GetBuLLish]

The same combo that beat the best team this year. It's a lack of effort. When they want, they win everyteam in this league. Whatever is the lineup

The Utah Jazz beat the best team this year as well. If Utah just plays with more effort, they should be title contenders.

Your logic is **** awesome. Can you tell me when has Utah won @GS @SAS @DAL, LAC, WAS (x2), MEM, ATL, TOR, POR, HOU?

Besides the fact that we have only beat Washington once (out of three tries) and have lost to Atlanta both times, my point was to demonstrate the glaring flaw in your logic.

Anyways, keep beating the "more effort" drum. You're not alone here on that one. I just wonder how many other fan bases believe the same thing about their team too. There might be 20 title contenders out there if every team just played with more effort.

[tomacorandom]

The Utah Jazz beat the best team this year as well. If Utah just plays with more effort, they should be title contenders.

Your logic is **** awesome. Can you tell me when has Utah won ?

Besides the fact that we have only beat Washington once (out of three tries) and have lost to Atlanta both times, my point was to demonstrate the glaring flaw in your logic.

Anyways, keep beating the "more effort" drum. You're not alone here on that one. I just wonder how many other fan bases believe the same thing about their team too. There might be 20 title contenders out there if every team just played with more effort.

We beat Atlanta. Your awesome logic tell us that as I failed saying we beat Was 2 times when it was only 1, all the others wins against @GS @SAS @DAL, LAC,, MEM, TOR, POR, HOU means nothing to you. Of course everyteam in the league can do that! This guy...