Stepping away from the panic button for a moment

The Goonibomber · Post #1 » by **The Goonibomber** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:20 pm

It's becoming far too common to bring our team's competitive fire into question.

For two postseasons, we've been stuck playing the role of the little engine that could. Thibs' maniacal dedication to defense, and the overall commitment to the philosophy of outworking (rather than outplaying) opponents spoiled us. The general sentiment was, "If we can overachieve when our cupboard is practically bare, imagine the possibilities when our team's talent matches his intensity!" We got used to seeing a team that exceeded any reasonable prediction.

Well, here we are after consecutive lackluster performances, and in the midst of one of the most bipolar phases of basketball you'll ever see. Because I'm a Bulls fan,I too worry about and put stock into tiny tabloid mentions of Thibs/FO clashes, or losing the locker room. I was the first one running around screaming that the sky was falling. It was all so eerily similar to what just happened with the 49ers and Harbaugh.

However, let's all step back and see how different the NBA is this year compared to what it's recently been.

Without a doubt, this is the biggest talent pool the NBA has had in decades. You could make two competitive all-star team's with guys who didn't even make the ASG roster.

And to go along with that, there is no handful of "title contenders". The tiers are now more convoluted into one of the three categories of: Non-playoff teams, Western Conference non-playoff teams/Eastern Conference playoff teams, and good teams.

And we know by now that we fit into the category of being a good team. We know it because we have had plenty of highs during this recent bipolar stretch. The problem with us on message boards, is that we go out of our way to dissect and downplay the highs, yet we dwell on the lows. Reading some of the conclusions to losses in the PG thread makes me feel bad for your mental health as fans.

I don't think there's a question that the addition of Pau, along with the (slightly decreasing) hesitancy of Rose to go full unicorn has changed the culture of the team. That doesn't mean we'll end up any worse when the games matter. Pau wants another title, and I imagine Rose just wants to have a say in how we're eliminated for once. Doesn't it seem OK to not jockey for the overall #1 seed? Especially given the lack of elite teams, the worst HCA the NBA has ever seen, and especially considering our road record?

If you were a Bull who had played under Thibs throughout his tenure, wouldn't you be happy to embrace Pau's attitude? Practice is already enough hell to put yourself through. Now you're telling me that I have to get up to go play the Lakers when there are 35 games left in the season?

Haven't we seen enough flashes to make us confident when healthy? Don't we know better than to lower our expectations, when our Bulls have done nothing but exceed them since Thibs has been coach?

WE'RE WINNING THE EAST!

clancyphile · Post #2 » by **clancyphile** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:31 pm

When the intended starting five of D-Rose, Butler, Dunleavy(!), Gasol, and Noah have started, the Bulls are 12-3.

I think there is a good team here. The problem is D-Rose is working his way to 100%, and Noah is also nowhere close to 100% this year as well. Those are two MVP-level players who aren't at full strength, and Noah's probably come back too soon.

pb-ceo · Post #3 » by **pb-ceo** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 1:05 am

i think your post falls under the category of "we'll be fine". but see they're just not very good. below average pg play on both ends. terrible defense. un athletic. not a good 3pt shooting team. there are certain teams like CLE ATL and WAS (and that's just the east) that simply know they are better and can prove it.

The Goonibomber · Post #4 » by **The Goonibomber** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 9:59 am

pb-ceo wrote:i think your post falls under the category of "we'll be fine". but see they're just not very good. below average pg play on both ends. terrible defense. un athletic. not a good 3pt shooting team. there are certain teams like CLE ATL and WAS (and that's just the east) that simply know they are better and can prove it.

At this point, there is no way to separate one 'good team' from another. Do you honestly, in your heart of hearts, think that either conference is decided yet?

As you've stated, a few teams present obstacles before we can make the Finals. So we don't have a cakewalk: big f***in whoop. Just because there's no red carpet laid out (ahem...Miami) why shouldn't we enjoy the ride as one of the more competitive teams? Judge the talent in April, not February.

The Goonibomber · Post #5 » by **The Goonibomber** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:29 am

Who out of ATL/CLE/WAS wants to play 7 games with us? We're still the most dangerous team this side of Lebron getting hot.

Bandit King · Post #6 » by **Bandit King** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:30 am

Last time I checked ATL killed us last game.

TimRobbins · Post #7 » by **TimRobbins** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:48 am

The Goonibomber wrote:Who out of ATL/CLE/WAS wants to play 7 games with us? We're still the most dangerous team this side of Lebron getting hot.

I think that other than the Raptors, every team would like to face us in the second round. The sad reality is the unless something drastically changes, we're looking at a first round matchup with the Cavs/Wizards and I don't think we can get passed either.

pb-ceo · Post #8 » by **pb-ceo** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 7:21 pm

yes I think there are 3 teams in the east that would not mind playing us at any point in the playoffs. they are better teams.

Keller61 · Post #9 » by **Keller61** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 7:30 pm

I don't believe HCA matters that much, but bracket position does. Having to go through three of ATL/TOR/WAS/CLE instead of two of them is a huge blow to our chances. It's like having to win three coin flips instead of two.

MGB8 · Post #10 » by **MGB8** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 7:41 pm

Meh, Toronto doesn't scare me. Washington is for whatever reason a bad matchup for the Bulls.

But as the Bulls are playing right now, they have pretty much no chance of beating either Atlanta or Cleveland in a series. Atlanta plays too solid overall, and Cleveland has too much talent that is finally gelling, including improved defense with Mozgov guarding the bucket, and Smith (who can play defense well when motivated) and Shumpert (ditto) added, along with Lebron and a Kyrie Irving who is trying harder.

Drellberg · Post #11 » by **Drellberg** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 7:57 pm

Argh. The Bulls in January do not equal the Bulls in May.
Atlanta in January does not equal Atlanta in May.

There is a lot of time remaining in this season. For goodness' sake, we aren't even to the ASG or the trade deadline.

On balance the individual talent on this team is at least as good as I expected when the season began. On balance. None of the players on this team suffer from lack of character or acute-onset laziness. Truly, not one. So injuries, slow-but-sure player development (e.g., for Rose, McDermott, Snell, and Mirotic) and lack of team chemistry explain most everything. I don't see how anyone can look all the way out to May to know where any of these will be at that point.

Conversely, Atlanta has been playing out of its mind. Do I really think that they will get all the way to May without significant regression to the mean? Uh, no. Looking that far out, I remain most concerned about Cleveland, as does "Vegas," I think.

Red Larrivee · Post #12 » by **Red Larrivee** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:06 pm

Playoffs are all about matchups. Too many people are focusing on grading the team game-to-game and building their playoff floor or ceiling off that. It's insanely difficult to judge this team. They beat Golden State, San Antonio and Dallas, but lost to Miami, the Lakers and Phoenix.

At the same time, playing Cleveland in the 1st round (which is where we're at right now) would be a nightmare. The Bulls probably don't win that series. Cleveland is just more talented.

There's two scenarios:

1. The Bulls play better and ascend to a #2 or #3 seed, to avoid Cleveland for the first round. If Cleveland stays at 4 or 5, then the only way we would see them is in the ECF. If not, it's a second round match.

2. The Cavaliers play better and ascend to a #2 or #3 seed. Chicago stays at the 4th or 5th seed, and plays Washington or Toronto in the 1st round and then gets to play Atlanta in the second round if they win.

Washington does scare me though. Their bigs are much stronger than ours and their team seems to play with a chip on their shoulder against us.

jumpstart · Post #13 » by **jumpstart** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:10 pm

I heard on the radio friday that they can't figure out whats going with Dunleavys ankle and Mike expressed his fustration during interview. sigh Im not sure whats going on.

MrSparkle · Post #14 » by **MrSparkle** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:45 pm

How can a team of the "best" sports doctors not be able to diagnose Mike's ankle? Wtf. It's weird that this is not the first time, especially considering the handful of times poor Deng was misdiagnosed or treated.

We've looked hopeless this month, but I wouldn't panic. If indeed there's a deep-rooted problem with this team, than any change (trading, firing Thibs) while likely not help this year's chances -- rather, it'd be a sign the organization is moving in a different direction, and it'd be setting up a more rosy 2016 plan (ooooh brother, the "Bulls' 2-years-from-now plan" should be an Onion article).

So then you hope that internally, Rose and Noah improve. We've seen excellent players waver from looking really bad
(post-injury) to radically rounding back into form, so it wouldn't be unprecedented if things clicked in April/May, and all a sudden Kyrie/Wall/Teague face-up with Rose and realize "OH ****- he's back." I'm more skeptical of Noah, because he's been a ****-show and he doesn't really have any skills to fall-back on if his speed and hops are gone. 07/08 Ben Wallace is an absolutely brilliant (and unfortunate) comparison; I mean, sure, Jo can hit the 2-handed play-ground jumper every so often, with crappy consistency, and he has a nice bounce pass to the cutter, but Lebron and any decent scouting report will have that **** negated every time, just as the Wizards and Heat did in years prior.

If there's no trade, then McDermott needs to be integrated and a SF buy-out/signing needs to happen, because we can't keep rolling with Kirk and Snell as our only developed options at SG/SF. To quote Kobe, they're soft as ****ing Charmin at this point. OK, to be fair, Kirk's not "soft"... and Snell's at least shown he can be of decent use... but both their feet, brains and hands are not moving together, and both should be waiving a towel and subbing in during blowouts... not averaging 25+ mpg for god's sake.

Other than this, I'm not panicking. Nothing to panic about besides a serious injury.

I would like to see Noah come off the bench, Taj start games. Taj could be a team player, but he's playing like he has something to prove, and as a result is going for aggressive post-up buckets ever time he catches the ball. Seems like detrimental competition, IMO.

kdapiton · Post #15 » by **kdapiton** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 10:54 pm

The Goonibomber wrote:Who out of ATL/CLE/WAS wants to play 7 games with us? We're still the most dangerous team this side of Lebron getting hot.

All of the teams above us minus Toronto would love to get their hands on us in the playoffs.

bearadonisdna · Post #16 » by **bearadonisdna** » Sun Feb 1, 2015 11:06 pm

ok, but only for a minute. the writting was on the wall last season when thibs inexplicably started carlos boozer over taj gibson. Its as bad as starting thabo sefolosha over james harden. Probably worse as taj was better offensively and defensively.
Now im not sure what coaching gaffes thibs is making this season as im missing most of the season for not being able to stream tho i watch the local broadcast games and listen on the radio. But every season there is usually something aggregious.

ok back to the button.

MrSparkle · Post #17 » by **MrSparkle** » Mon Feb 2, 2015 2:32 am

Well, I'd easily concur that our starting lineup is not the best lineup you can possibly start the game with. It's more a reflection of who's paid most or not a rookie.

bullsRlife · Post #18 » by **bullsRlife** » Mon Feb 2, 2015 3:47 am

Who the hell wouldn't want to play us if you're one of the top teams? Pack the paint, and dare us to shoot. What's Thibs gonna do? Play our shooters? Lmao.

ingvald · Post #19 » by **ingvald** » Mon Feb 2, 2015 2:24 pm

The Goonibomber wrote:Who out of ATL/CLE/WAS wants to play 7 games with us? We're still the most dangerous team this side of Lebron getting hot.

All of them would beat the Bulls in a 7 game series. The Cavs are rolling, the Wizards are a bad match up, and the Hawks are destroying everyone. Of course things can change by April but you're hoping all four teams will have a dramatic reversal of fortunes. I hope you're right but wish in one hand, **** in the other, and see which one fills up first.

gstephanopulos · Post #20 » by **gstephanopulos** » Mon Feb 2, 2015 2:39 pm

bullsRlife wrote:Who the hell wouldn't want to play us if you're one of the top teams? Pack the paint, and dare us to shoot. What's Thibs gonna do? Play our shooters? Lmao.

Actually, we are pretty good at 3s this year. MDJ missing games is really hurting us right now, Niko hitting wall is not helping also. But if this team ever gets healthy I can see 3s being a weapon.