Nerlens Noel Thread

[Kirk Van Houten]

I think we have seen a big enough sample right now to say Noel won't be ROY. It's Wiggins. That being said he is going to be a special player as the years go on. Noah type ceiling... DPOY definitely in his future.

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[Wilfried]

He must improve on his offensive game (elbow shot and passing, nothing else) and than he can become a Marcus Camby-clone, which is very good.

Happy to see his progression and him staying healthy. He's very good already and will benefit from playing next to Embiid.

[Ericb5]

He must improve on his offensive game (elbow shot and passing, nothing else) and than he can become a Marcus Camby-clone, which is very good.

Happy to see his progression and him staying healthy. He's very good already and will benefit from playing next to Embiid.

He isn't close to the rebounder that Camby was though either.

[Tony Franciosa]

Camby would be a nice ceiling. Theo Ratliff circa 2000-2001 is his floor at this point I think.

[Mogul]

He's growing in front of our eyes. If you take a 2 or 3 game hiatus from the Sixers and come back, you notice the difference. His PER has risen about 2 points in the last month. If he can raise his PER to around 15 or so and wind up averaging just under a double double, can he realistically compete with Wiggins in the eyes of the Associated Press?

[Mr Sixer]

Despite offense being overvalued in the ROY race, Noel still needs offensive improvement to be considered. He is too much of a negative on that side of the ball. As far as Noel in the longterm, I have no worries and think he will be a great complement to Embiid, he just needs to bulk up and keep showing the improvement in his game he has shown so far

[42uptop]

Noel is not going to win rookie of the year. It goes by stats, and a lot of the good things Noel does are not going to jump out on the stat sheet. However this roster is now 12th in defensive efficiency, and I credit Noel for most of that. He is a savant on defense.

3-2 over the last 5 games, and Noel has been more efficient, though he is only taking 6.4 shots in 30 minutes. That seems low even with Noel's well documented flaws, and I hope he gets more involved.

[Mogul]

It goes by stats, and a lot of the good things Noel does are not going to jump out on the stat sheet.

I don't get this point. Isn't Noel leading all rookies in several stat categories...?

[CoreyGallagher]

Most don't really visit the Rookie Discussion thread in GD, but accumulated some stats and Noel is already amongst the better defenders in the NBA. Ranks 7th in Opponent fg% at the rim, he ranks 6th in the league in Defensive Box Plus/Minus. 23rd in Defensive Win Shares (14th among front court) and he plays on an 11 win team. I mention the team's wins because WS is apportioned to how many wins a team has, it makes him ranked so high more impressive by playing on a team with so few, that's also why no player in the vicinity of him in the rankings plays on even a remotely comparably bad team. Then there's the obvious raw numbers of 1.6 steals per game and 1.7 blocks per game, him and Anthony Davis are the only two players in the league averaging that many of both. His offense is putrid, although seems to be finding his spots recently shooting 50.7% (60-117) since January 7th.

[MRxBLACK]

Last night he picked up 2 early fouls and didn't foul again the entire game. He's great at avoiding fouls while being the defensive anchor.

[42uptop]

It goes by stats, and a lot of the good things Noel does are not going to jump out on the stat sheet.

I don't get this point. Isn't Noel leading all rookies in several stat categories...?

He's averaging 8 points a game on 44 % shooting. Never said it was fair, but voters aren't going to overlook that because of his DRPM. These general awards are still heavily biased towards offense.

[CoreyGallagher]

It goes by stats, and a lot of the good things Noel does are not going to jump out on the stat sheet.

I don't get this point. Isn't Noel leading all rookies in several stat categories...?

He's averaging 8 points a game on 44 % shooting. Never said it was fair, but voters aren't going to overlook that because of his DRPM. These general awards are still heavily biased towards offense.

Yeah, saying it goes by stats is sort of misleading, it goes by a few specific stats.

[ankle420breaker]

Anyone else notice how Noel got pulled for for the stretch run over the last two games? I know we were playing small ball, but considering Nerlens' mobility I didn't view him as a liability. Seeing as how he's been on the floor to finish just about every close game this season I was a little surprised that he sat for the last two.

[83SixersRocked]

I'd like to think that the Nerlins we'll have in a couple of years would have 3-4 more baskets in last night's game, putting him somewhere in the mid-teens. Tack on his defense, and that's not a bad place for him to be.

[phillynative]

He has trouble catching the ball and can't carve out space for himself because he's so thin. That's why his touches are low..

[Ericb5]

Let's not be homers here. Noel is not as good of a player as Wiggins, period.

The only way he wins the rookie of the year is if Wiggins has a season ending injury in his next game, and then Noel goes crazy for the rest of the year.

[Mogul]

Not sure why you're putting Wiggins on a pedestal, though. He's about 5 PER points under the pace MCW was playing at around the ALL Star break last year. Wiggins isn't that impressive.

[CoreyGallagher]

Let's not be homers here. Noel is not as good of a player as Wiggins, period.

The only way he wins the rookie of the year is if Wiggins has a season ending injury in his next game, and then Noel goes crazy for the rest of the year.

Wiggins' not a two way player as advertised, his defense hasn't translated yet per player tracking and data. He's strictly an offensive player right now and that being considered, his jump shot has fallen off after the first month. Even with that ridiculous November shooting he's only hitting on 32.6% of his jumpers on the season. His entire game is predicated on playing at/above the rim, that's not bad, however Wiggins' hype is as prevalent as ever in that most assume he's something more than he is. I'm not condemning him, he's a raw prospect with a sky high ceiling, that's what I thought he was coming into this season and that's what he seems to be. To Minnesota's credit they have broken him out of his shell and have gotten him to throw caution to the wind, most thought he'd be timid.

Noel's not going to win ROY, however the margin between them as players, difficult as it may be to compare, is not astronomical.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 4=&p5=&p6=

Noel has better BPM, better VORP, within a point of PER, same differential in O to Drtg.

Not being homers, plenty of data to it. As I mentioned above, Noel is realistically among the best defenders in the league, that's what the numbers purport.

[MRxBLACK]

^^^ Noel has 2.2 DWS on an 11 win team!? Jesus.

[CoreyGallagher]

Seem to hold him to a higher level of scrutiny because we've all been waiting for him for so long and we neglect what he does so well. He's doing some amazing things, for instance the only rookie to ever average more than 1.50 blocks and 1.50 steals the same season was David Robinson in 1989-90. Noel is at 1.71 and 1.60. Such a basic prerequisite makes it impressive.

Last 5 games he's averaging 8.8 ppg on 60% shooting (67% ft), 6.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, 2.2 spg, 3.0 bpg, while committing only 2.6 fpg. His rebounding has been sort of on tilt this season, has his ups and downs, but even that we're being overly critical of. Rookies don't usually rebound that well, here's a list of notable player's rookie season rebounding numbers, per 36...

Noel 8.6
Garnett 7.9
Chandler 8.9
Sanders 7.3
Bosh 8.0
Davis 10.2
Aldridge 8.1
Marc Gasol 8.6
Hibbert 8.7

I'm sure the list goes on and on.

He isn't close to the rebounder that Camby was though either.

Camby 7.5 rebounds per 36 his rookie season. 8.4 per 36 his sophomore season.
Noel 8.6 rebounds per 36 so far his rookie season.