Blue Jays Salary Situation

[bluerap23]

This is the current projections (with arbitration assumptions) based largely on Cot's baseball contracts.


Reyes, Jose $22,000,000
Buehrle, Mark $20,000,000
Bautista, Jose $14,000,000
Dickey, R.A. $12,000,000
Encarnacio, Edwin $10,000,000
Martin, Russel $7,000,000
Navarro, Dioner $5,000,000
Estrada, Marco 3,900,000
Donaldson, Josh 4,500,000
Izturis, Maicer $3,000,000
Saunders, Michael $2,875,000
Cecil, Brett 2,600,000
Thole, Josh $1,750,000
Valencia, Danny 1,700,000
Smoak, Justin 1,000,000
Delabar, Steve 500,000
Loup, Aaron 500,000
Redmond, Todd 500,000
Hutchison, Drew 500,000
Goins, Ryan 500,000
Drabek, Kyle 500,000
Pillar, Kevin 400,000
Pompey, Dalton 400,000
Sanchez, Aaron 500,000
Stroman, Marcus 500,000
Romero, Ricky $7,750,000
TOTAL - TOR $133,875,000

Updated Feb. 5, 2015 to reflect numbers for estrada and saunders

[dagger]

I see names on that list that might not be back. Valencia, for example. He was necessary because we needed a right hand bat and a third baseman with Lawrie out for the season. Is he really necessary with Donaldson and a likely return of Izturis who can back him up at 3B? Delabar? I'm not sure we'll keep all of Dirks, Mayberry, Smoak. Dealing with committed salary, we have 10 players for $109m. Depending on the next move(s), I expect some of this estimated $134m to disappear irrespective of moves like trading Navarro or Happ.

[Lateral Quicks]

I see names on that list that might not be back. Valencia, for example. He was necessary because we needed a right hand bat and a third baseman with Lawrie out for the season. Is he really necessary with Donaldson and a likely return of Izturis who can back him up at 3B? Delabar? I'm not sure we'll keep all of Dirks, Mayberry, Smoak. Dealing with committed salary, we have 10 players for $109m. Depending on the next move(s), I expect some of this estimated $134m to disappear irrespective of moves like trading Navarro or Happ.

Agreed. Names I wouldn't expect back:

- One of Happ/Estrada (hopefully Estrada)
- Andy Dirks (not a regular, and makes no sense as a 4th outfielder)
- Navarro
- One of Mayberry/Navarro (depends on if we platoon DH or LF)

There's also a lot of AAA/AAAA guys on that list, some of which probably won't be back.

And if we do somehow land a legitimate front-end guy, I think it's a virtual lock Dickey (and Thole) are gone, lessening the marginal salary impact.

[Schad]

I'd non-tender Estrada, and I'd give consideration to non-tendering Smoak, as well. Moving Dickey/Thole is, assuming we can find at least a mid-rotation starter somewhere, a no-brainer for me.

Just a note: we have a little bit more than that committed owing to a couple mil in option buyouts.

[satyr9]

Yeah, I was very nervous when the offseason started 'cause Dirks and Smoak and Estrada are options. Terrible options, but options. I was hoping they were just interim pieces to let AA run wild and do what he wanted knowing he had at least replacement level options in place depending on how the offseason broke, but it was always possible they were actually what we were going to go with. I also think it's helpful in negotiations. Never leave them knowing what you have to have, 'cause you get squeezed.

Blessedly, with Martin and Donaldson in the picture, I think it's clear those guys are placeholders, not intended to all make the squad.

So some pieces may just get waived, but others even if they stay it'll be at a better number than the projected arb. Estrada at 4.7, if the arb number is right, is crazy. Far better to take any number of second tier relievers from the UFA market at close to that price. So either they find a deal or he's non-tendered. Same for Smoak.

How to figure out the salary situation, I'd work it backwards for now. Don't fill up a 25-man and say here's the extra and what we got, just look at what we know, for as close to a certainty as we're gonna get will be on the squad next year. I'd say they're at about 95m committed with no 2B, no LF, no DH, no second C ('cause it could go three different ways), one starter missing, and 2-3 relievers. They've also got a lot of salary to dump or cut, but pieces like Dickey or Navarro are easily moveable. More is cuttable like Estrada and Smoak and Dirks. Izturis is probably the hardest piece, which is why I'm leaning towards us being stuck at 2B, which also makes sense when you consider where Goins and Travis are in the system. As long there's 3 guys in the system capable of playing it defensively, we can hopefully avoid a sub .600 OPS type season, which is really all we'll need out of the spot.

[Santoki]

That Lind trade was baffling in hindsight (not that it wasn't right away). Was that really all they could get for him? A guy they were using just in case and will probably now non-tender? It basically equates to declining Lind's option. He had to have been a locker room issue. It's the only thing that makes sense.

[dagger]

I'd non-tender Estrada, and I'd give consideration to non-tendering Smoak, as well. Moving Dickey/Thole is, assuming we can find at least a mid-rotation starter somewhere, a no-brainer for me.

Just a note: we have a little bit more than that committed owing to a couple mil in option buyouts.

One thing I found with buyouts is that some sports teams budget them differently, amortizing them over longer periods. It's not a CBA or league thing, but Rogers is certainly a company that would use amortization extensively, so who knows, it might not count against the budget in the same way as Jose Reyes.

[torontoaces04]

No matter how often it is discussed, seeing Ricky @ 7.5 mill is crushing on the soul.

[Santoki]

No matter how often it is discussed, seeing Ricky @ 7.5 mill is crushing on the soul.

Is this finally the last year of that deal?

[bluerap23]

No matter how often it is discussed, seeing Ricky @ 7.5 mill is crushing on the soul.

Is this finally the last year of that deal?

Yup
I wish they would have taken him the route of brett Cecil a long time ago

[Kinger95]

Does all romero's money come off the books next year? With Buhrle's 20 mill expiring coming off the books too and also depending what we do with Navarro and Happ what will next seasons committed salary look like after projected arb numbers?

We are gonna have like 40 mill to spend no?

[bluerap23]

Updated with recent transactions/

Also of note: Jays currently have 42.6 million committed to 2016. Though that number increases to 74.6 million with Jose, Edwin and Dickey options picked-up. Also doesn't include arbitration numbers (don't know how to project that far in advance, but I imagine Donaldson would have to earn at least 7 million in 2016 for example).


Reyes, Jose $22.00

Bautista, Jose $1.00 ($14.00)

Dickey, R.A. $1.00 ($12.00)

Encarnacion, Edwin $2.00 ($10.00)

Martin, Russell $15.00

Izturis, Maicer $1.00

Donaldson, Josh Arb 2

Cecil, Brett Arb 3

Saunders, Michael Arb 3

Thole, Josh Arb 4

Valencia, Danny Arb 2

Donaldson, Josh Arb 2

Delabar, Steve Arb 2

Loup, Aaron Arb 1

Redmond, Todd

Hutchison, Drew Arb 1/2

Goins, Ryan

Burns, Cory

Drabek, Kyle Arb 2

Hague, Matt

Hendriks, Liam

Hynes, Colt

Jenkins, Chad

Jimenez, A.J.

Pillar, Kevin

Pompey, Dalton

Rasmussen, Rob

Sanchez, Aaron

Schultz, Bo

Stroman, Marcus

Tepera, Ryan

Tolleson, Steve

Romero, Ricky $0.60

TOTAL - TOR $42.60

[bluerap23]

EDIT:

Jays currently have 76 million ear marked for 2016.
This includes a core of Reyes, Martin, Bautista, EE, Dickey, and 1 million for Izturis buyout.
Does not include all of our arbitration eligible players which will likely cost 30 million.
There are more than enough funds to pay Shields as long as he is willing to take less in first year of the deal (10,20,20,20)/

[Santoki]

Valencia wins arb and gets $1.675 million.

[dagger]

Valencia wins arb and gets $1.675 million.

Oops, there goes another reliever.

[satyr9]

I think we've finally reached the point where arbitration meetings are actually these silly things where they sit down, both open up MLBTR, read the projection and pick the one closer.

[Back2back2back]

I can't believe we are still paying Romero $7,750,000

If I don't perform well or up to expectations at my job, I get fired. Why should it be any different for professional baseball players?

[Skin Blues]

I can't believe we are still paying Romero $7,750,000

If I don't perform well or up to expectations at my job, I get fired. Why should it be any different for professional baseball players?

You're allowed to sign a contract with your employer that precludes you from being fired for poor performance. Obviously, there is not nearly as much demand for your services as there was for Romero back when he signed that contract. It goes both ways; in 2013 Mike Trout, the best player in baseball, had a contract literally worth 2% of the average annual salary of his teammate Josh Hamilton.

[satyr9]

I can't believe we are still paying Romero $7,750,000

If I don't perform well or up to expectations at my job, I get fired. Why should it be any different for professional baseball players?

Lots of people have long-term contracts, not just athletes. He did get fired, that's why he's not on the team, but he still gets paid, that's what contracts are for. If you had skills as unique as Ricky's you just might have a contract that runs for 5 years at a time. And please, that's not me trying to be mean, I certainly don't have those skills. Just recognize how few people on the planet have what Ricky had, it's just crazy how fast and far he fell.

And if it helps, he's really only making 7.5m. The other 250k is just Cot's averaging out the cost of the signing bonus.

edit: late jinx!

[Aventador]

Is it possible to trade Ricky as salary fodder to a team, and we pick up a slightly more expensive player and cut into our budget a little bit?