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Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong

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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1781 » by hands11 » Sun Feb 8, 2015 4:05 pm

montestewart wrote:
hands11 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Ah the definition of success :)

Top 15!!!!

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings


You really have to stop looking at mostly useless pages.

You really think LAC are 3rd and the Buck are better then CHI and us ?

Reality is. The best teams are more likely.

ATL, GS, SAS, MEM, CAVS

not

GS, ATL, LAC, MEM, DAL

You would be better off looking at this page from Marc Stein.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

And we are only 14th because we just dropped 3. Once we beat ORL and TOR we will be back up near top 10

Oh, and read the side not on the Wizards.

This is the first season since 1983-84 that the Wiz have posted a winning record in November, December and January.

Making progress comes in phases.

Actually, Stein ranks the Wizards 14th with a 31-17 record. Since that ranking, they've gone 1-3. Don't be surprised if they drop in the next ranking tomorrow, possibly passed by Charlotte.

Hollinger, on the other hand, has the Wiz back up to 14 in the newest edition. Maybe his system gives them more credit for playing the Hawks close on the road. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings


Nahh. I highly doubt he puts CHA over us. For one, they aren't better then us. For two, they just lost to PHI.

One thing about Stein is that he actually uses his brain in doing the ranking. Its not just numbers.

He will be forced to evaluate how much of the Ls we rung up was a moment where the team hit a wall and got out of sync vs a systemic problem. We had actually been playing better the last two games in some areas, we just hadn't put it together.

After seeing them put it together against BRK who had been hot, and how CHI and others are playing, we either stay the same or we move up one. His ranking aren't simply based on record.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1782 » by milellie111 » Mon Feb 9, 2015 2:50 pm

Kanyewest wrote:I just talked to one of my friends who said that EG is a really good GM. Is this how most Wizard fans feel?


I believe most fans who are truly excited about the Wizards have analyzed the overall picture and direction of the team going forward. They have learned to have a short memory when it comes to past failed draft picks because they realize there's no use in crying over missed opportunities and injuries to which the GM had no control over. The team is on the right path now and Grunfeld has righted the ship. If team falls back into the lottery, criticize him then, but not while we are tops in the East.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1783 » by sashae » Mon Feb 9, 2015 5:16 pm

milellie111 wrote:They have learned to have a short memory when it comes to past failed draft picks because they realize there's no use in crying over missed opportunities and injuries to which the GM had no control over. The team is on the right path now and Grunfeld has righted the ship. If team falls back into the lottery, criticize him then, but not while we are tops in the East.


The majority of the complaints surrounding EG's performance has to do with his not properly taking advantage of opportunities which he had control over -- ie, poor talent evaluation. Is there anything that Saint EG can be found guilty of?
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1784 » by Sluggerface » Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:13 pm

My main problem with EG is that every season, it seems like we're hindered in some way by one of his earlier moves. I mean we're still feeling ramifications of the eric maynor situation. We turned that into a half year rental of Andre Miller at this point, and now we're strapped for a back up point on the roster, AGAIN, and Miller is eating away nearly 5 mil of the cap. Meanwhile Louis Williams is putting up a 6th man of the year campaign for almost the exact same price. Throw in the pointless Dejuan Blair signing and this is the 2nd season in a row where the bench is limping to the trade deadline. EG is always playing catch up, always attempting to clean up his messes. You have to be ahead of the curve to be successful in this league, and Ernie is never ahead of the curve.

I'm not going to argue that he's not executing the plan, but this team could be in a much better situation, while still executing the plan, with a better talent evaluator.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1785 » by dckingsfan » Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:22 pm

Yes but... we have a potential COY candidate and we are steaming into the playoffs for the second straight year. I would even say we are close to a top 15 team!
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1786 » by hands11 » Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:43 am

Sluggerface wrote:My main problem with EG is that every season, it seems like we're hindered in some way by one of his earlier moves. I mean we're still feeling ramifications of the eric maynor situation. We turned that into a half year rental of Andre Miller at this point, and now we're strapped for a back up point on the roster, AGAIN, and Miller is eating away nearly 5 mil of the cap. Meanwhile Louis Williams is putting up a 6th man of the year campaign for almost the exact same price. Throw in the pointless Dejuan Blair signing and this is the 2nd season in a row where the bench is limping to the trade deadline. EG is always playing catch up, always attempting to clean up his messes. You have to be ahead of the curve to be successful in this league, and Ernie is never ahead of the curve.

I'm not going to argue that he's not executing the plan, but this team could be in a much better situation, while still executing the plan, with a better talent evaluator.


For a GM, that's mostly a never ending process.

For a GM that is rebuilding a team from Gun Gate, blow up and Gils worse in the league contract, its a process.

Looks better this year then last. More talent. Solid cap for next year. Even better in 2016. And we still have our #1. And more wins.

Progress. Its really perfection.

Rasual was the right addition out of that group they were looking at. That's for sure.

And after this year, Wall should have enough maturity to truly shoulder the franchise at a playoff level. The more Wall, Beal and Otto can do that, they less they need older vets to teach them. But that process isn't over yet. Not this year.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1787 » by montestewart » Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:44 am

hands11 wrote:
montestewart wrote:
hands11 wrote:
You really have to stop looking at mostly useless pages.

You really think LAC are 3rd and the Buck are better then CHI and us ?

Reality is. The best teams are more likely.

ATL, GS, SAS, MEM, CAVS

not

GS, ATL, LAC, MEM, DAL

You would be better off looking at this page from Marc Stein.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

And we are only 14th because we just dropped 3. Once we beat ORL and TOR we will be back up near top 10

Oh, and read the side not on the Wizards.

This is the first season since 1983-84 that the Wiz have posted a winning record in November, December and January.

Making progress comes in phases.

Actually, Stein ranks the Wizards 14th with a 31-17 record. Since that ranking, they've gone 1-3. Don't be surprised if they drop in the next ranking tomorrow, possibly passed by Charlotte.

Hollinger, on the other hand, has the Wiz back up to 14 in the newest edition. Maybe his system gives them more credit for playing the Hawks close on the road. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings


Nahh. I highly doubt he puts CHA over us. For one, they aren't better then us. For two, they just lost to PHI.

One thing about Stein is that he actually uses his brain in doing the ranking. Its not just numbers.

He will be forced to evaluate how much of the Ls we rung up was a moment where the team hit a wall and got out of sync vs a systemic problem. We had actually been playing better the last two games in some areas, we just hadn't put it together.

After seeing them put it together against BRK who had been hot, and how CHI and others are playing, we either stay the same or we move up one. His ranking aren't simply based on record.

And this week, like clockwork, Marc Stein (the guy who uses his brain) drops the Wizards ranking to 16, while Chad "Just Numbers" Hollinger has the Wizards ranked 14th. So it's all those little things, the intangibles, the things that don't show up in a box score, the things that are only on the eye test, the things that require a brain, that make the Wizards worse in Stein's estimation.

PS: I seem to recall that Stein's system always had Arenas' Wizards ranked a little higher than Hollinger's system. Stein must have seen something in Arenas that went beyond the numbers.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1788 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:50 am

It's John Hollinger, by the way. And, Hollinger doesn't even work for ESPN anymore. He's a VP with the Memphis Grizzlies.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1789 » by montestewart » Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:58 am

TheSecretWeapon wrote:It's John Hollinger, by the way. And, Hollinger doesn't even work for ESPN anymore. He's a VP with the Memphis Grizzlies.

You're thinking of ESPN writer and western director John Ford. Easy to mix up.

PS: Wonder if the Grizzlies bosses ever try to apply pressure on Hollinger to inflate the team's ranking? That would make for a hilarious conversation.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1790 » by hands11 » Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:05 am

montestewart wrote:
hands11 wrote:
montestewart wrote:Actually, Stein ranks the Wizards 14th with a 31-17 record. Since that ranking, they've gone 1-3. Don't be surprised if they drop in the next ranking tomorrow, possibly passed by Charlotte.

Hollinger, on the other hand, has the Wiz back up to 14 in the newest edition. Maybe his system gives them more credit for playing the Hawks close on the road. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings


Nahh. I highly doubt he puts CHA over us. For one, they aren't better then us. For two, they just lost to PHI.

One thing about Stein is that he actually uses his brain in doing the ranking. Its not just numbers.

He will be forced to evaluate how much of the Ls we rung up was a moment where the team hit a wall and got out of sync vs a systemic problem. We had actually been playing better the last two games in some areas, we just hadn't put it together.

After seeing them put it together against BRK who had been hot, and how CHI and others are playing, we either stay the same or we move up one. His ranking aren't simply based on record.

And this week, like clockwork, Marc Stein (the guy who uses his brain) drops the Wizards ranking to 16, while Chad "Just Numbers" Hollinger has the Wizards ranked 14th. So it's all those little things, the intangibles, the things that don't show up in a box score, the things that are only on the eye test, the things that require a brain, that make the Wizards worse in Stein's estimation.

PS: I seem to recall that Stein's system always had Arenas' Wizards ranked a little higher than Hollinger's system. Stein must have seen something in Arenas that went beyond the numbers.


Yes.. that is what he did.

http://espn.go.com/nba/powerrankings

The bottom third of these rankings is filled with hard-to-watch teams, but the Wizards' current plight reminds you that the 11-to-16 range is more competitive than usual. Yet you can't overlook the fact that the Wiz, after an untimely five-game skid, are down to 10-15 against .500-or-better teams.

No doubt written before the win last night. And it looks like he wants to see a win against a quality team. Beating TOR should do that.

The system I described stands as stated.

But his grip was our record against over .500 teams and MIL is 8-17 which worse then us and I take issue with him ranking. I think he got it wrong this week.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1791 » by payitforward » Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:06 am

We have the 4th best record in the weaker of the 2 conferences. Our strength of schedule is below average difficulty. Were we in the Western Conference even with that schedule we'd be in the dead center of the conference based on our record.

Most analysts rate us about an average team in the league -- despite our better than average record -- and that seems about right.

Worth noting that it's a lot better to be mediocre, if that is the right word for the Wizards, than it is to be awful, which is what we've been mostly in recent memory. So... no complaints.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1792 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:08 am

montestewart wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:It's John Hollinger, by the way. And, Hollinger doesn't even work for ESPN anymore. He's a VP with the Memphis Grizzlies.

You're thinking of ESPN writer and western director John Ford. Easy to mix up.

PS: Wonder if the Grizzlies bosses ever try to apply pressure on Hollinger to inflate the team's ranking? That would make for a hilarious conversation.


Ah yes, John Ford, a true pioneer of location statistical analysis, and the long view, which frames players within their team context as well as the vast, harsh, rugged competitive landscape of the NBA. Very influential -- he's won four DeanOs for Best Stat Goober.

From what I understand, Hollinger has literally nothing to do with the rankings since he left ESPN. I do wonder how much he's getting paid for them to continue using his name and whatever approach he'd developed. They have good stat guys on staff there who could do as good or better. Maybe it's cheaper to pay him?
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1793 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:10 am

payitforward wrote:We have the 4th best record in the weaker of the 2 conferences. Our strength of schedule is below average difficulty. Were we in the Western Conference even with that schedule we'd be in the dead center of the conference based on our record.

Most analysts rate us about an average team in the league -- despite our better than average record -- and that seems about right.

Worth noting that it's a lot better to be mediocre, if that is the right word for the Wizards, than it is to be awful, which is what we've been mostly in recent memory. So... no complaints.


Not only is the Wiz strength of schedule below average, it's back to easiest in the league. And they're done with the hard part of their schedule.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1794 » by montestewart » Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:15 am

payitforward wrote:Worth noting that it's a lot better to be mediocre, if that is the right word for the Wizards, than it is to be awful, which is what we've been mostly in recent memory. So… no complaints.

I've had a good time watching more wins this year, and even some of the tough, close losses were so much better than years past. The losing team only knows one thing: it's better to win.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1795 » by hands11 » Wed Feb 11, 2015 4:18 am

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
payitforward wrote:We have the 4th best record in the weaker of the 2 conferences. Our strength of schedule is below average difficulty. Were we in the Western Conference even with that schedule we'd be in the dead center of the conference based on our record.

Most analysts rate us about an average team in the league -- despite our better than average record -- and that seems about right.

Worth noting that it's a lot better to be mediocre, if that is the right word for the Wizards, than it is to be awful, which is what we've been mostly in recent memory. So... no complaints.


Not only is the Wiz strength of schedule below average, it's back to easiest in the league. And they're done with the hard part of their schedule.


.006 weaker then GSW schedule.

.010 weaker then ATL schedule
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1796 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Feb 11, 2015 5:14 am

hands11 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
payitforward wrote:We have the 4th best record in the weaker of the 2 conferences. Our strength of schedule is below average difficulty. Were we in the Western Conference even with that schedule we'd be in the dead center of the conference based on our record.

Most analysts rate us about an average team in the league -- despite our better than average record -- and that seems about right.

Worth noting that it's a lot better to be mediocre, if that is the right word for the Wizards, than it is to be awful, which is what we've been mostly in recent memory. So... no complaints.


Not only is the Wiz strength of schedule below average, it's back to easiest in the league. And they're done with the hard part of their schedule.


.006 weaker then GSW schedule.

.010 weaker then ATL schedule


Yes. That's why we use strength of schedule in combination with scoring differential. GSW is outscoring its opponents by 11.1 points per game. ATL by 6.75 points per game. The Wizards by 2.43 per game.

SOS and scoring differential (Margin of Victory over at b-r) roll up into SRS (Simple Rating System). So, the Warriors are 1st in MOV and 29th in SOS. Combined, they're 1st in SRS. Atlanta is 2nd in MOV and 28th in SOS. Combined: 2nd in SRS. The Wizards: 12th in MOV and 30th in SOS. Combined: 13th in SRS.

If the Wizards were truly a GOOD team, they'd be outscoring their opponents by wider margins. Maybe that'll happen over the final months of the season. So far, they've been a little better than average in terms of relative strength, even as their record has been quite good. Hopefully, they'll gain strength down the stretch.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1797 » by MikeTheKid » Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:54 am

Why is this EG arse kissing thread still open?
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1798 » by dckingsfan » Wed Feb 11, 2015 1:53 pm

MikeTheKid wrote:Why is this EG arse kissing thread still open?

Delusion :)
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1799 » by milellie111 » Thu Feb 12, 2015 12:55 am

Beal, an impactful starter is out for a considerable amount of time yet we have depth in Porter, Temple, and Webster who can step in. I foresee the team keeping pace.
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Re: Grunfeld a Great GM. Proves Doubters Wrong 

Post#1800 » by milellie111 » Tue Mar 17, 2015 12:07 am

Sessions hard improved play has shown you can't jump to conclusions too quickly about an acquisition. Had to give the guy time to get settled in the offense
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