Otto Porter

[Induveca]

Nivek,

Even many of the top Sloan Sports guys (I posted them admitting as much), SportsVu etc all readily admit until they are able to get far more data via image recognition/tracking defensive analytics will remain very far behind offensive analytics. I'll defend Barkley on that point, it's a statement easily backed up by the analytic gurus.

This is from Sports Aptitude, SAP and statisticians from the most recent Sloan conference.

-----
Furthermore, perhaps no aspect of basketball is as important and as under-studied as defense. Our case
studies were designed to show how new data and emerging approaches can be integrated to help analysts better
characterize defense in the NBA. While we contend it is clear that these studies effectively demonstrated the
potential of spatial/visual analytics to expose new insights about defense, we also assert that the paper’s methods only represent a small first step in a multi-step progression towards the core objective of better defensive analytics.

Evaluating defense in the NBA is very difficult. Despite the new analytical opportunities introduced by player tracking data, our current ability to extract meaningful defensive analytics from these data remains undeveloped.

This fundamental notion manifests in multiple ways within our evaluation of interior defense.
----

Barkley isn't as off base as people are making him out to be, he was obviously pissed off but his major point was analytics are weighted far too much on offense currently. The above shows a clear reason why. It was a valid point based upon many such statements as cited above.

[Induveca]

Nivek,

Even many of the top Sloan Sports guys (I posted them admitting as much), SportsVu etc all readily admit until they are able to get far more data via image recognition/tracking defensive analytics will remain very far behind offensive analytics. I'll defend Barkley on that point, it's a statement easily backed up by the analytic gurus.

This is from Sports Aptitude, SAP along with Harvard/MIT statisticians from the most recent Sloan conference.

-----
Furthermore, perhaps no aspect of basketball is as important and as under-studied as defense. Our case
studies were designed to show how new data and emerging approaches can be integrated to help analysts better
characterize defense in the NBA. While we contend it is clear that these studies effectively demonstrated the
potential of spatial/visual analytics to expose new insights about defense, we also assert that the paper’s methods only represent a small first step in a multi-step progression towards the core objective of better defensive analytics.

Evaluating defense in the NBA is very difficult. Despite the new analytical opportunities introduced by player tracking data, our current ability to extract meaningful defensive analytics from these data remains undeveloped.

This fundamental notion manifests in multiple ways within our evaluation of interior defense.
----

Barkley isn't as off base as people are making him out to be, he was obviously pissed off but his major point was analytics are weighted far too much on offense currently. The above shows a clear reason why. It was a valid point based upon many such statements as cited above.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Nivek,

Even many of the top Sloan Sports guys (I posted them admitting as much), SportsVu etc all readily admit until they are able to get far more data via image recognition/tracking defensive analytics will remain very far behind offensive analytics. I'll defend Barkley on that point, it's a statement easily backed up by the analytic gurus.

This is from Sports Aptitude, SAP along with Harvard/MIT statisticians from the most recent Sloan conference.

-----
Furthermore, perhaps no aspect of basketball is as important and as under-studied as defense. Our case
studies were designed to show how new data and emerging approaches can be integrated to help analysts better
characterize defense in the NBA. While we contend it is clear that these studies effectively demonstrated the
potential of spatial/visual analytics to expose new insights about defense, we also assert that the paper’s methods only represent a small first step in a multi-step progression towards the core objective of better defensive analytics.

Evaluating defense in the NBA is very difficult. Despite the new analytical opportunities introduced by player tracking data, our current ability to extract meaningful defensive analytics from these data remains undeveloped.

This fundamental notion manifests in multiple ways within our evaluation of interior defense.
----

Barkley isn't as off base as people are making him out to be, he was obviously pissed off but his major point was analytics are weighted far too much on offense currently. The above shows a clear reason why. It was a valid point based upon many such statements as cited above.

I agree there are problems with the approaches taken to defense so far in the SportsVu analysis. But, that's talking about AUTOMATED evaluations of INDIVIDUAL defenders, which is a different subject than what Barkley was addressing.

Barkley's claim wasn't something like "James Harden is the worst defender in the league." It was "the Rockets are the worst." Well, team-level defensive stats are terrific. We know which teams are good defensively and which aren't. We know which stats are meaningful and which aren't.

And, with all that said, there are still good analytical tools to get at the quality of individual defenders, even if there aren't yet good tools to quantify exactly HOW they're good defenders. But, that SportsVu data might get there with careful analysis and possibly some upgrades to the technology. Probably a good place to start would be in looking at how different activities on the floor impact team defensive efficiency, which they haven't seemed to have done yet.

Barkley's argument boils down to "I don't know anything about analytics and I never will." That's not a winning argument with me on any subject. Your mileage may vary.

[Ruzious]

Nivek,

Even many of the top Sloan Sports guys (I posted them admitting as much), SportsVu etc all readily admit until they are able to get far more data via image recognition/tracking defensive analytics will remain very far behind offensive analytics. I'll defend Barkley on that point, it's a statement easily backed up by the analytic gurus.

This is from Sports Aptitude, SAP along with Harvard/MIT statisticians from the most recent Sloan conference.

-----
Furthermore, perhaps no aspect of basketball is as important and as under-studied as defense. Our case
studies were designed to show how new data and emerging approaches can be integrated to help analysts better
characterize defense in the NBA. While we contend it is clear that these studies effectively demonstrated the
potential of spatial/visual analytics to expose new insights about defense, we also assert that the paper’s methods only represent a small first step in a multi-step progression towards the core objective of better defensive analytics.

Evaluating defense in the NBA is very difficult. Despite the new analytical opportunities introduced by player tracking data, our current ability to extract meaningful defensive analytics from these data remains undeveloped.

This fundamental notion manifests in multiple ways within our evaluation of interior defense.
----

Barkley isn't as off base as people are making him out to be, he was obviously pissed off but his major point was analytics are weighted far too much on offense currently. The above shows a clear reason why. It was a valid point based upon many such statements as cited above.

I agree. yadayadasomethinganalyticalhuha

Aha!

Quoted out of context? That's what Charles said about his autobiography.

[Dat2U]

Barkley speaks from a perspective of ignorance. He has the old school logic, that unless you've played the game, it's impossible to accurately judge the performance of players because you haven't experienced or know what it actually takes to play ball at a professional level.

I don't know how anyone could take him seriously or support his arguments.

[Induveca]

Beyond frustrated with this guy. Looks like he's riding the pine until summer league barring new injuries.

Far too passive/weak....he has that Vesley "deer In headlights" look the past few months as well.

[SizzlinSimms]

he has that Vesley "deer In headlights" look the past few months as well.

On reddit's /r/nba they continue to harp on Wittman for not playing Porter, however the dude looks so lost and is not that good. I'm upset that the Wiz did not draft Nerlens Noel instead, I think he's going to be a decent if not a great player in the NBA. Possibly the next Tyson Chandler. Yet we settle for the next Joe Alexander.

[Dark Faze]

He'd look a lot better playing next to more players that can create.

We're just drafting guys who can catch the ball and shoot and be good all around players. Its a part of EG and Wittmans mentality.

[dckingsfan]

Look, he has made terrific strides year over year... If the trend line stays linear that would be a really good player

Code: Select all

Season   Age    WS/48   VORP   ORtg   DRtg
2013-14   20   -0.006   -0.4    86    107
2014-15   21    0.090    0.4   104    104
2015-16   22    0.174    1.4   122    101


[dckingsfan]

He'd look a lot better playing next to more players that can create.

We're just drafting guys who can catch the ball and shoot and be good all around players. Its a part of EG and Wittmans mentality.

Agreed... putting Otto next to Beal isn't such a great idea - next to Harden?

[stevemcqueen1]

He needs a new coach. Wittman isn't going to give him a real chance. Beal needs one too, but for different reasons.

[Induveca]

Otto has been afforded plenty of opportunity. He's been especially atrocious his last 10 games, with the exception of one. He's averaged 22 minutes in those games with one deserved DNP-CD.

Let's just all pray there is a sucker in the league willing to take on Porter via a decent trade.

Porter reminds me a lot of Jae Crowder. Great college player, but overmatched at the next level.....his skills just don't translate when everyone is x% taller x% faster vs his Gtown days.

Maybe one day he'll become a decent bench player, Crowder is finally showing some competent bench play in Boston this past month.

[gambitx777]

Porter is a decent player, does he make a mistake every now and then sure. but those look worse because Wittman makes him look worse! Randy Wittman is the problem. Get a better HC in here and I would bet all the money in my pocket that Porter is 100% better.

[dckingsfan]

Yeah, Wittman needs to go - but Wittman isn't Porter's problem. Last year he was physically incapable. This year he is a rookie but he doesn't have that "something" that keeps him on the court. Let's face it - Temple and Butler have outplayed him this season.

[Induveca]

Noel last night: 23 points 14 rebounds 3 blocks 5 steals

Otto last night: 2 points, 3 rebounds

This is really going to frustrate me for the next decade. Noel with 16+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. And his contributions are actually leading to some wins lately (2 in a row, 3 of 5).

[payitforward]

Barkley speaks from ...the old school logic, that unless you've played the game, it's impossible to accurately judge the performance of players because you haven't experienced or know what it actually takes to play ball at a professional level.

I don't know how anyone could take him seriously or support his arguments.

On the money. But, I can assure you, our GM takes that perspective seriously! He's from that same old school.*

The difference, of course, is that nothing hangs on what Barkley says -- he's an entertainer. Ernie has had it in his power to p#ss in a whole bunch of bowls of soup, unfortunately.


* For a long time, nearly all NBA GMs were ex-players. Most of them were terrible at their jobs, and the few good ones (Red Auerbach leaps to mind) picked the other guys' pockets all the time. I lived in SF and was a rabid Warriors fan when Al Attles traded Robert Parish and the #3 pick (Kevin McHale) for the #1 pick (Joe Barry Carroll) and #13 pick (Rickey Brown -- lasted 2 seasons).

[dckingsfan]

Noel last night: 23 points 14 rebounds 3 blocks 5 steals

Otto last night: 2 points, 3 rebounds

This is really going to frustrate me for the next decade. Noel with 16+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. And his contributions are actually leading to some wins lately (2 in a row, 3 of 5).

We have Seraphin

[Ruzious]

I'd definitely prefer to have Noel over Porter, but let's at least wait to see how Porter does in the playoffs - assuming Wittman plays him in the playoffs - before panning him. It's not far-fetched to believe that Wittman would be playing Seraphin over Noel. That might have been even more frustrating.

[payitforward]

Noel last night: 23 points 14 rebounds 3 blocks 5 steals

Otto last night: 2 points, 3 rebounds

This is really going to frustrate me for the next decade. Noel with 16+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. And his contributions are actually leading to some wins lately (2 in a row, 3 of 5).

Not much doubt that Noel's a better player than Porter -- he was projected #1.

Now that he's clearly recovered from the injury that downgraded that projection, hindsight tells us he'd have been a better pick than Porter.

What's really going to be frustrating is when Philadelphia is one of the dominant teams in the league, and we suck again -- or stay more or less average by way of patchwork moves.

[payitforward]

I'd definitely prefer to have Noel over Porter, but let's at least wait to see how Porter does in the playoffs - assuming Wittman plays him in the playoffs - before panning him. It's not far-fetched to believe that Wittman would be playing Seraphin over Noel. That might have been even more frustrating.

Seems almost certain he'd be playing Seraphin over Noel, now that you mention it!

Noel being really good doesn't make Porter worse. As you say, lets give the kid a chance.