bulls individual WAR at all-star break

dice · Post #1 » by **dice** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:17 am

per ESPN:

above average NBA impact:

7.01 butler (excellent O)
4.75 gasol
2.45 noah (bad O, strong D)
2.38 niko (good D)
2.22 taj (good D)
1.95 dunleavy

below average NBA impact:

1.43 derrick (bad D)
1.33 brooks (good O, bad D)

D-league level play:

0.36 snell
0.06 nazr
0.02 kirk (bad O)
0.02 bairstow
-0.10 e'twaun
-0.24 dougie (bad all-around)

that's approximately 24 wins above a theoretical team full of D-league all-stars (hello NY knicks)

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm

Post #2 » by **alucryts** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:59 am

I think that this list is actually pretty good at describing the dynamics of the first half. It captures a lot of the trends I think are visibly obvious at this point.

dice · Post #3 » by **dice** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 2:34 am

alucryts wrote:I think that this list is actually pretty good at describing the dynamics of the first half. It captures a lot of the trends I think are visibly obvious at this point.

yeah, the only things bucking the traditional wisdom of this board are that:

1) jimmy's D has not been impactful thus far
2) joakim's D, while not as strong as last season, is still very good
3) pau's D has not hurt the team
4) niko has positively impacted team D

maybe the players' performance in those 4 cases are not accurately reflected by their impact (the truth is probably somewhere in-between), but as with all +/- stats, half a season is a small sample size

MrSparkle · Post #4 » by **MrSparkle** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 3:23 am

Also, on the bright side, Noah and Snell are playing much better in the last week. Snell's more of a side-bar (although he's really strung together a series of big games), but Noah's impact is far greater, and it'll really help if he continues rounding into form.

Rose and Noah are both capable of playing themselves into all-star shape within the next few months... Optimistically and realistically, it's reasonable for both to triple their RPMs...

But yeah, kudos to this group for somehow staying above .500... better yet a #3 seed. Thanks Jimmy?

genbar · Post #5 » by **genbar** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:10 am

MrSparkle wrote:Also, on the bright side, Noah and Snell are playing much better in the last week. Snell's more of a side-bar (although he's really strung together a series of big games), but Noah's impact is far greater, and it'll really help if he continues rounding into form.

Rose and Noah are both capable of playing themselves into all-star shape within the next few months... Optimistically and realistically, it's reasonable for both to triple their RPMs...

But yeah, kudos to this group for somehow staying above .500... better yet a #3 seed. Thanks Obama

Fickst.

dice · Post #6 » by **dice** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 4:13 am

paying up to the luxury tax level of $76.8 mil and distributing according to WAR, fair salary for each player would be (in millions):

19.618 butler
13.588 gasol
7.452 noah
7.265 niko
6.838 taj
6.118 dunleavy

4.730 derrick
4.463 brooks

1.875 snell
1.075 nazr
0.968 kirk
0.968 bairstow
0.915 e'twaun
0.915 dougie

since the bulls have been an above average team this season and nearly half the league is at least approaching the luxury tax level, this model works pretty well

Post #7 » by **RedBulls23** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:52 am

So why is this stat suppose to be better than all the other stats?

Post #8 » by **Payt10** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:46 am

Red-Bulls83 wrote:So why is this stat suppose to be better than all the other stats?

It's a better version of the +/- because it adjusts for the effects of each teammate and opposing player rather than just the raw net change. Gives you a better idea of individual impact. Matches up well with the eye test too for the most part.

Here is a better description: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10740 ... plus-minus

Leslie Forman · Post #9 » by **Leslie Forman** » Sun Feb 15, 2015 10:26 am

dice wrote:3) pau's D has not hurt the team
4) niko has positively impacted team D

I really don't give a damn what the stats say, these are complete lies.

If there's an individual stat that accurately contextualizes defensive impact, I have yet to see it.

dice · Post #10 » by **dice** » Mon Feb 16, 2015 12:47 am

tong po wrote:
dice wrote:3) pau's D has not hurt the team
4) niko has positively impacted team D

I really don't give a damn what the stats say, these are complete lies.

as i've stated, half a season is a small sample. but it's enough for me to say that their defense must at least be mediocre. and it's not a stat like PER where box score numbers are randomly weighted. it measures largely what happened on the scoreboard when a particular player was out there