Shocked We Haven't Done Anything to the Bullpen

[dballislife]

Like completely utterly shocked...pitching is everything in baseball and the 7, 8, and 9th is like the last 5 or so minutes of a basketball game...thats closing time, u gotta lock up these innings to win games and series and get into postseason

wtf are we doing here, all great/playoff teams dont always have great offense or even elite starting pitching, but they all usually have amazing pens, like multiple shutdown guys for the late innings with solid depth behind them

wut was our pen like bottom 3 in baseball last year? and somehow for some reason with the season around d corner the pen looks even worse than last year...how is that even possible?

[baulderdash77]

It's the big problem with this offseason. We basically picked up Estrada and lost Janssen. I think we have 5 credible relievers right now and 6 if Delabar comes back. Year to year relievers are not always consistent but if Delabar regains his form then the bullpen could be very good. Like many I think if we had signed one of the good closers that may still be on the market our bullpen would look good.

That being said if our bullpen looks like:
Cecil
Loup
Estrada
Redmond
Jenkins
Delebar
Hendricks

It's not a complete dumpster fire but I don't expect we're setting the world on fire.

[dagger]

I'm not certain Delabar should be there. He not only got demoted to Buffalo, he wasn;t consistent enough there to get a ticket back to Toronto for September I think he's very risky banking on him to return to the form he displayed two seasons ago. My reading of this pen is too much long relief/mopup, and not enough right handed late-inning options. If not Delabar, who?

[baulderdash77]

Delabar is really a default option. It's super thin right now with anyone who's actually pitched in the MLB. Jenkins is almost a stretch too but he's been effective before he was injured.

The truth is that if Delabar doesn't return to form what do we do.

[Schad]

I'm not certain Delabar should be there. He not only got demoted to Buffalo, he wasn;t consistent enough there to get a ticket back to Toronto for September I think he's very risky banking on him to return to the form he displayed two seasons ago. My reading of this pen is too much long relief/mopup, and not enough right handed late-inning options. If not Delabar, who?

We have a large collection of guys who could perhaps be righty late-inning options...whether they'll be up to the task who knows. Wilton Lopez was an effective 7th/8th inning guy thanks to his ridiculous flyball suppression/walk avoidance, and if his stuff hasn't fallen off the table I'd expect him to have a shot to reclaim that role. Like Delabar, Matt West has late-inning stuff; whether he has late-inning control remains to be seen. If healthy, Stilson could feature in high-leverage spots, but he's held together with twine at this point. Sanchez, it appears, is being set up for the 9th inning.

So, there are a lot of potential options, with a handful having experience in those spots. Whether any of them are actually good options won't shake out until Spring Training.


Edit: momentarily forgot that Belisario didn't actually end up signing...it's hard to keep track of all these damned non-roster invites.

[Lateral Quicks]

At this stage we have to hope at least one of Delabar, Drabek, Tepera, Guilment or West can take the late inning RHP role and run with it. That or we actually spend some money on an established guy, which would be far preferable.

[Michael Bradley]

I'm still hoping the Jays come to their senses and put Norris/Sanchez in AAA to start the season, even if it means trying to catch lightning in a bottle with a few of the relief options in the bigs (Lopez, Guilmet, Drabek, West, etc), but it looks like Sanchez is destined for the pen, so they probably think they can get away with not adding anyone.

[Waylon Mercy]

I'm shocked we haven't done a lot of things so far this offseason. Hoping Beestons replacement
in the near future gets a new management team.

[Schad]

I'm shocked we haven't done a lot of things so far this offseason. Hoping Beestons replacement
in the near future gets a new management team.

You want AA fired because, with not a lot of money to work with, he acquired two players who were elite last year, turned Anthony Gose into a guy who could be our long-term answer at 2B (and soon), and JA Happ into an upgrade on Melky Cabrera?

Really, there are only two areas one can criticize: the Lind trade, which still looks pretty bad in retrospect, and the lack of movement on the relief front (and/or moving Dinner to allow greater ease of movement on the relief front). We were never going to solve every roster issue; the money wasn't there, but it's pretty clear that he prioritized high-end offensive production in a league where offense is increasingly difficult to come by.

AA's far from perfect; his missteps two seasons ago are part of the reason that we didn't have the cash to round out the roster, but if his performance this offseason is worthy of the axe, we're perhaps expecting just a little too much.

[Waylon Mercy]

I'm shocked we haven't done a lot of things so far this offseason. Hoping Beestons replacement
in the near future gets a new management team.

You want AA fired because, with not a lot of money to work with, he acquired two players who were elite last year, turned Anthony Gose into a guy who could be our long-term answer at 2B (and soon), and JA Happ into an upgrade on Melky Cabrera?

Really, there are only two areas one can criticize: the Lind trade, which still looks pretty bad in retrospect, and the lack of movement on the relief front (and/or moving Dinner to allow greater ease of movement on the relief front). We were never going to solve every roster issue; the money wasn't there, but it's pretty clear that he prioritized high-end offensive production in a league where offense is increasingly difficult to come by.

AA's far from perfect; his missteps two seasons ago are part of the reason that we didn't have the cash to round out the roster, but if his performance this offseason is worthy of the axe, we're perhaps expecting just a little too much.

I think it has a little more to do with his entire tenure than just this offseason

[Schad]

His tenure has had ups and downs, without question. But given where the club was in 2010 in terms of the major league roster (an aging star in Halladay, a bloated contract in Wells, not a hell of a lot of quality save for two bench players named Bautista and Encarnacion) and the minors (just about nothing), his overall tenure has been pretty good.

While it hasn't translated into a chance to contend, it's worth remembering that he took over at a time when we were expecting to rebuild, because the cupboard was bare; instead, the team was shockingly competitive in 2010 (and an almost surefire playoff team in another division), and in terms of assets we're in a better place than we've been in a decade or more. If this season goes south and AA gets fired, with his replacement handed the same task he was -- to retool, get younger, and compete a couple years down the line -- they'll be operating on a much lower difficulty level than he did.

[Michael Bradley]

Honestly, if this off-season is any indication of what AA is going to be like going forward, then the Jays should hold on to him. The farm system is in good shape despite the many trades two years ago, and if he's starting to value WAR, framing, etc, then he's at least valuing the same things as the top GM's in the game. Like I said before, I would have been fine with AA/Gibbons/Beeston getting the axe the day after the 2014 season ended, but AA has done more than enough to redeem himself by adding Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Travis, etc.

Regardless, AA's job is already in trouble the moment Beeston is gone, so if the Jays fail to make the playoffs this season, I don't see any scenario where he comes back, unless Beeston specifically handpicks his successor, and even that doesn't guarantee anything.

[Homer Jay]

I understand a lot of faith is being placed on Estrada being a consistent BP option. Hendricks was brought back and could fill a role. As well as NRIs like Colabello will be given a long look in spring training too.

They seem to think that Miguel Castro could be in play this year for the big club. AA seems very high on him

Still looks thin for this year. I wonder if a couple of more options on one year deals. I don't think we seem to be offering too much based on Bellisario backing out because of the lack of guaranteed money from the Jays, that he subsequently got from the Rays. I think AA is being super cautious and doesn't want to be cutting guys owed money like he had to last year with Rogers and Jeffress... not to mention he who shall not be named (and wasn't even invited to ST), Rickey Romero.

[satyr9]

His tenure has had ups and downs, without question. But given where the club was in 2010 in terms of the major league roster (an aging star in Halladay, a bloated contract in Wells, not a hell of a lot of quality save for two bench players named Bautista and Encarnacion) and the minors (just about nothing), his overall tenure has been pretty good.

While it hasn't translated into a chance to contend, it's worth remembering that he took over at a time when we were expecting to rebuild, because the cupboard was bare; instead, the team was shockingly competitive in 2010 (and an almost surefire playoff team in another division), and in terms of assets we're in a better place than we've been in a decade or more. If this season goes south and AA gets fired, with his replacement handed the same task he was -- to retool, get younger, and compete a couple years down the line -- they'll be operating on a much lower difficulty level than he did.

That shockingly competitive 2010, along with the vdub trade really shortened up the timeline. Forget the actual 25-man roster, the system at the time was literally the worst. Not counting the '09 drafteds (what few there were), the trade deadline deals (meaning Zach and Josh), or the offseason deals (Halladay haul), namely just the stuff that JP actually brought in before he became a title on the door a year earlier, this is the 2010 top 10 prospects that JP left AA (Snider had graduated, but I should mention him):

D.Cooper
H.Alvarez
C.Perez
B.Mills
E.Thames
B.Emaus
R.Schimpf
D.Farquhar
R.Bell
J.Arencibia

BTW, listen to this:

17) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C: Baseball America likes him a lot more than this, but both personal observation and his performance in Vegas make me very skeptical at this point. Power is there, but his approach to hitting is terrible. I see him as a reserve catcher.

Sickels knows some ****.

I had my usual 2,000 word rant to go with this here, but I'll save you all the trouble of scrolling past it and remove it now.

[Raps in 4]

I'm shocked we haven't done a lot of things so far this offseason. Hoping Beestons replacement
in the near future gets a new management team.

You want AA fired because, with not a lot of money to work with, he acquired two players who were elite last year, turned Anthony Gose into a guy who could be our long-term answer at 2B (and soon), and JA Happ into an upgrade on Melky Cabrera?

Really, there are only two areas one can criticize: the Lind trade, which still looks pretty bad in retrospect, and the lack of movement on the relief front (and/or moving Dinner to allow greater ease of movement on the relief front). We were never going to solve every roster issue; the money wasn't there, but it's pretty clear that he prioritized high-end offensive production in a league where offense is increasingly difficult to come by.

AA's far from perfect; his missteps two seasons ago are part of the reason that we didn't have the cash to round out the roster, but if his performance this offseason is worthy of the axe, we're perhaps expecting just a little too much.

I think it has a little more to do with his entire tenure than just this offseason

That's not what you said though:

I'm shocked we haven't done a lot of things so far this offseason. Hoping Beestons replacement
in the near future gets a new management team.

[Waylon Mercy]

You want AA fired because, with not a lot of money to work with, he acquired two players who were elite last year, turned Anthony Gose into a guy who could be our long-term answer at 2B (and soon), and JA Happ into an upgrade on Melky Cabrera?

Really, there are only two areas one can criticize: the Lind trade, which still looks pretty bad in retrospect, and the lack of movement on the relief front (and/or moving Dinner to allow greater ease of movement on the relief front). We were never going to solve every roster issue; the money wasn't there, but it's pretty clear that he prioritized high-end offensive production in a league where offense is increasingly difficult to come by.

AA's far from perfect; his missteps two seasons ago are part of the reason that we didn't have the cash to round out the roster, but if his performance this offseason is worthy of the axe, we're perhaps expecting just a little too much.

I think it has a little more to do with his entire tenure than just this offseason

That's not what you said though:

I'm shocked we haven't done a lot of things so far this offseason. Hoping Beestons replacement
in the near future gets a new management team.

?

[dagger]

My feeling isn't the problem isn't AA, it's Rogers. I like AA's drafting and on trades and signings, I'm okay with him. If he had the money, I believe he'd spend it. The fact is, the payroll in USD is down, and my sense is that the big reason for lack of additional spending is that the Canadian dollar has fallen further from where it was when the budget was set. While the team would have hedged much of a C$140m payroll for 2015, and higher ticket prices might have helped make up the difference, the payroll is probably unhedged for 2016. That's why the Jays seem reluctant to sign anyone who wants 2016 money, even a $1m buyout. The other possibility is the Beeston situation, Rogers no longer willing to spend beyond this season so as not to tie the hands of the new president/GM. That would be plausible for big money signings, but I can't believe it would prevent the signing of one lousy relief pitcher on a deal with a small 2016 guarantee.

So we're left all Bon Jovi - living on a prayer. The team has a very good batting order 1-7, providing none of the key pieces has a lengthy injury and at least one of Saunders, Pompey, Izturis can deliver what for them we might call "current career expectations", or CCE because they sound like the bottom third of the order. Every fan can set their own CCE for them, based on analytics or hope, but we'll know it when we see it. There is little room for age regression by our two oldest pitchers, or for Loup or Cecil to have a bad year by their standards. We need to push our young starters - Stroman and Hutchinson - to the max, which is disconcerting in Hutch's case because of his elbow history. And somebody we'd rather bring along slowly (or trade) like Sanchez or Norris has to excel in the role given them, even if that role is not what they are destined to fulfill in baseball.

So yes, one can be optimistic, but IMO one should be very guarded in that optimism. But for a few million more dollars spent judiciously, such extreme caution wouldn't be necessary.

[Schad]

Agreed, and part of the reason I'm not terribly upset that AA isn't spending every dollar of our budget on relievers (if we do still have $6m left) is that I have no confidence that, if we're in it in June/July and need to make a deal, Rogers will top up the payroll to allow additions. They screwed us over last year in a similar spot, and while I'd have spent down to the last cent to upgrade the rotation, had that been possible (and I'd still be good with adding a modestly priced reliever or two), keeping a few mil in reserve as a hedge may ultimately be more beneficial than the marginal upgrade gained by signing one of the bigger relief arms.

[dagger]

Agreed, and part of the reason I'm not terribly upset that AA isn't spending every dollar of our budget on relievers (if we do still have $6m left) is that I have no confidence that, if we're in it in June/July and need to make a deal, Rogers will top up the payroll to allow additions. They screwed us over last year in a similar spot, and while I'd have spent down to the last cent to upgrade the rotation, had that been possible (and I'd still be good with adding a modestly priced reliever or two), keeping a few mil in reserve as a hedge may ultimately be more beneficial than the marginal upgrade gained by signing one of the bigger relief arms.

We will probably have one of our best debates ever on this board, not to mention in the media generally, if the Jays are competitive in July, but still a bit of a long shot for playoffs, i.e. sitting right on the edge of beefing up vs breaking down, buy or sell.

[Michael Bradley]

If money really is available and AA is just saving it for mid-season, then I can live with that. I'd rather have three months of McCarthy/Headley type talent in July-Sept than sign K-Rod in February.

The question is whether money really is available. I don't trust Rogers at all. After not increasing payroll in June 2014 when the team's chances of making the post season was probably greater than 50%, I don't think it's wise to expect anything from them at this point.