Let’s first look at Hutchison. He allowed well above MLB average damage on fly balls, as his .304 AVG-.772 SLG mark translates to 121 REL PRD. Once you adjust for his hard/soft fly ball rates allowed, his fly ball ADJ PRD plummets to 87. Hutchison was hurt quite significantly by his outfield defense; according to my Defensive Multiplier method, which I have detailed in some of my other articles, the Jays were the worst team in baseball at defending fly balls in 2014.
His actual 4.48 ERA is way out of whack with the other listed metrics. He was hurt by sequencing, as suggested by his 3.70 calculated component ERA. His 3.85 FIP underpins his 2.6 WAR figure, but misses the impact of the subpar team defense played behind him, and the relatively limited contact authority he yielded. His 3.19 “tru” ERA, based on his 85 ADJ PRD, is a more accurate barometer of his 2014 performance quality, and marks him as a hurler to watch in 2015.
Long-term, I think Odorizzi is a safer bet than Hutchison, though his upside might be a tad lower. Hutchison has two potential plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and is death to same-handed hitters. As we speak, lefties have their way with him, as he is still feeling his way with his changeup. Like many Rays’ hurlers, Odorizzi really knows how to pitch with his fastball, and has actually had more success with opposite-handed hitters thus far in his major league career. Both are already better than we think, and are at the forefront of their age group. Expect major steps forward in the near term, with top five Cy Young Award finishes not of the question in 2015.
Interesting to see that we were the worst team in baseball at defending against fly balls. With a few fly ball pitchers in our rotation the additions Saunders and Pompey replacing Cabrera and Rasmus could be just as important as the addition of Martin. Overall the Jays defense has really improved and could really produce some great results for our pitching.
Fangraphs really likes Stroman and Hutchison and potentially what the Jay's future rotation would look like with their prospect rankings of Norris, Sanchez and Hoffman that was released yesterday.
Fangraphs 2015 Pitcher WAR Projection:
10. Stroman 4.3 (190 IP)
48. Hutchison 2.7 (184 IP)
65. Buehrle 2.4 (201 IP)
67. Dickey 2.4 (210 IP)
103. Sanchez 1.7 (129 IP)
137. Norris 1.1 (99 IP)
