Dante Exum having worst rookie season since Austin Rivers

[YogurtProducer]

Nope. Here are the RPM rankings for five 19 year old rookies. Exum isn't close to the worst, and is
above average for a rookie. I would list all the rookies but this thread will probably be locked
before I could look them up.

Andrew Wiggins 196
Dante Exum 272
Aaron Gordon 372
Jabari Parker 444
Zach Levine 457 (dead last)

This is the dumbest post so far.

LaVine - 21 minutes/7.6 points/3.2 assist/1.8 turn overs/0.9 steals

they both average 21 mintues and LaVine beat Ex in every catagory except for turn overs.

There is this whole defense aspect to basketball as well

[indilakeshow]

When Exum was drafted, people knew he was going to be raw. Just read his draft report:

We have seen enough of Exum to know that he is one of the best under-20 players in the world, but he still has quite a ways to go before becoming a star in the NBA… The areas that he needs to focus on are his ball-handling, decision-making, and outside shooting, especially if he wants to reach his goal of being a Derek Rose-like point guard… The potential is there, so much so, that he will likely be drafted ahead of a number of players who are more NBA-ready.

So ball-handling, decision-making, and outside shooting were his weaknesses coming in, and still are his weaknesses right now. He's extremely young and will undoubtedly improve in those areas. Nobody expected him to come in and dominate, the fact that he isn't great player immediately isn't surprising and was actually expected.

I agree that Exum is probably being graded too early, but still this draft report doesn't do him any favors. The report is not saying he's raw at all. In fact it says he's one of the best under-20 players in the world, and that the areas you listed are actually areas he needs to focus on to become a star, not a serviceable player.

As of right now? He sucks. Would I waive him or trade him if I was the GM of the Jazz? Hell no.

[atlantabbq99]

If Exum turns out to be a bust, it won't be the most shocking things in the world. We have Evan Turner, Michael Beasley, Jonny Flynn, Derrick Williams, Kwame, Darko. the list is big, its just the nature of the draft.

If Exum ends up being a decent starter, it wouldn't be a surprise either.

Exum is only averaging 4ppg. Can he develop and turn into a 15-20ppg guy 4 or 5 years from now? maybe but its very very rare. Kobe, McGrady, Dirk, KG, Tony Parker, Livingston, all averaged over 8ppg in their rookie season while playing decent minutes. Jonathan Bender is the only High schooler i can think of who only averaged 3ppg in his rookie year (but only average 5 minutes).

Exum might be a bust, or he night turn into a good pro, but this isn't anything new or shocking in the NBA

[youngthegiant]

I kinda hate when people say, oh a player is only 19 so they need time to develop. I mean yes players do improve as they get older, but right off the bat you can see potential in their game. Take Giannis for example, 18 when he came into the league and he put up decent numbers, but most importantly you could see the skill he has. I don't know much about exum, as I haven't seen him play much. But looking at his numbers From February ...he is out there 26 minutes a game and is averaging just a little over 3 points. That is really,really bad.

[Michigantown]

I don't really see how Stauskas could continue to be such a bad 3pt shooter. It has to improve I would think. He was a prolific shooter before the NBA.

I will judge him after he has the same head coach for the whole season.

[jazzfan1971]

I don't know. He's not impressed me much. But, the Jazz brass still seem to love him. I'm taking a wait and see view at this point.

Lets give him the offseason and reassess next season. Maybe 20 games in.

[GallagherArt]

Lavine has been the most detrimental rookie, perhaps not necessarily the worst. I'm sure there are worse rookies who aren't given the opportunity to makes mistakes as Lavine has been, but because he has it's really been damning to his metrics.

This is not an indictment of his potential or future, however, he has the worst VORP, WAR, RPM, WS, & among the worst BPM in the league.

[miltk]

the only quantifiable "worst" would be a big donut in x number of games, going 0 for everything

[JB1089]

Nope. Here are the RPM rankings for five 19 year old rookies. Exum isn't close to the worst, and is
above average for a rookie. I would list all the rookies but this thread will probably be locked
before I could look them up.

Andrew Wiggins 196
Dante Exum 272
Aaron Gordon 372
Jabari Parker 444
Zach Levine 457 (dead last)

This is the dumbest post so far.

LaVine - 21 minutes/7.6 points/3.2 assist/1.8 turn overs/0.9 steals

they both average 21 mintues and LaVine beat Ex in every catagory except for turn overs.

Defense is also a part of the game...50% of it, in fact.

[Domejandro]

I don't know. He's not impressed me much. But, the Jazz brass still seem to love him. I'm taking a wait and see view at this point.

Lets give him the offseason and reassess next season. Maybe 20 games in.

To compound on this (I quoted you because you may find this tidbit interesting), Flip Saunders, who has so far shown to be fantastic at talent evaluation, was completely uninterested in Dante Exum according to inside sources. Obviously nothing to be terrified by, as General Managers are incorrect quite often, but I actually have a lot of faith in Flip Saunders, something I have never been able to say as a Timberwolves fan.


As for the thread, I was not a fan of his entering the Draft due to my doubts I had based on his weaknesses and hearsay, but the idea that he has had the worst rookie season ever is absolutely preposterous. He has not been as horrible as Austin Rivers, and Austin Rivers was not the worst rookie ever. Silly thread all together.

[stitches]

As I said in the previous thread last week, this year is not about production with Exum. It's about getting used to the speed and physicality of the game. Don't look at the numbers, they are pretty bad, but they don't really reflect the things you have to be excited about with him and they don't reflect the impact he has on the game.

Right now he doesn't capitalize on any of his tools - he blows past opponents with ease and then stops himself when he sees big bodies in the paint and withdraws to the perimeter. He drives and swings awesome passes to the perimeter for spot ups, which are often missed, because our guards/wings(with exception of Hayward) are some of the worst in the league. He is super long, but plays timid and in effect plays short in the paint, because he doesn't enter it with the intention of attacking the rim, but with the idea to always pass... His timidity and lack of physicality reflects in him not even trying to score much(outside of spot up jumpers).

It's the same in defense... he keeps up with his man, he's there, his length disturbs opponents, but doesn't force anything and gets very few steals and blocks, even though he probably defends better than average for his position. And with all that said, he's one of the very few rookies with positive impact on their team...

Here's his on/off numbers:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2015/

The team is +1.1 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor and -5.4 when he's off the floor. That +6.5 impact, which is second only to Hayward on the Jazz. He's the only player in the Jazz regular rotation with positive balance when on court, not even Hayward gets on the + side. Some of that might have to do with Snyder putting him in situations to succeed and trying to protect him and not letting him stay too much out there when things get tough, but the sample of over 1100 minutes seems good enough to take it seriously and to be able to conclude that he at the very least doesn't hurt the team, mainly by having much better defense than Trey Burke.

Offensively, there is a lot of progress to be made, but the tools are there. We probably won't really know how he will turn out until at least year 3. I personally don't expect anything, but an occasional flash this season. I want to see increase in the aggression next year and consistent probing of the defense and drives to the basket. I won't really be looking at the results, but I'd like to see much more aggressive play from him. We will see how this one goes...

[Xsy]

Dante Exum was drafted because of his physical tools, not his basketball skill. He's obviously very inexperienced. He's still very shy, preferring to defer the ball, and stand around the three point line. When he attempts an offensive play, you can tell he's nervous when he takes his shots. As of now, his strength is in his defense. He has good court vision and solid passing as well.

From where I'm sitting, there's still plenty of time for him to develop into a really good defensive PG, with serviceable offense, and solid passing ability. If he really puts his work in, he can become the great PG people hyped him up to be. He has the physical tools, he just has to figure out the mental aspect of the game, and really work on his shooting stroke.

Who knows, though. If he can't get over his timid nature, there is definitely a chance he can become the PG version of Hasheem Thabeet.

[stitches]

Dante Exum was drafted because of his physical tools, not his basketball skill. He's obviously very inexperienced. He's still very shy, preferring to defer the ball, and stand around the three point line. When he attempts an offensive play, you can tell he's nervous when he takes his shots. As of now, his strength is in his defense. He has good court vision and solid passing as well.

From where I'm sitting, there's still plenty of time for him to develop into a really good defensive PG, with serviceable offense, and solid passing ability. If he really puts his work in, he can become the great PG people hyped him up to be. He has the physical tools, he just has to figure out the mental aspect of the game, and really work on his shooting stroke.

Who knows, though. If he can't get over his timid nature, there is definitely a chance he can become the PG version of Hasheem Thabeet.

Yep, to me this is the key to his development. If he doesn't get over the timidity and lack of aggression he will bust. Just there is no way to be a good PG in the current NBA without having either good drive game or great shot. I don't think he will ever be a great shooter, so the hope for me is that he will turn back to the things that got him to the NBA and the the things he was supposed to be good at - drives to the basket, which should open up his game a lot.

[SOUL]

As the Jazz posters said (who watch way more of him than me) - stats don't worry me at all for rookies. The timidness thing is a major hump that will make or break him. If he starts to become aggressive and show off his gifts then he will be just fine, if he is still playing like he's allergic to contact and the paint, then all of his skills are going to waste.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Nope. Here are the RPM rankings for five 19 year old rookies. Exum isn't close to the worst, and is
above average for a rookie. I would list all the rookies but this thread will probably be locked
before I could look them up.

Andrew Wiggins 196
Dante Exum 272
Aaron Gordon 372
Jabari Parker 444
Zach Levine 457 (dead last)

This is the dumbest post so far.

LaVine - 21 minutes/7.6 points/3.2 assist/1.8 turn overs/0.9 steals

they both average 21 mintues and LaVine beat Ex in every catagory except for turn overs.

Basketball is more complicated than raw stats.

[Luigi]

I am very irritated by his camping on the 3 point line. He was supposed to be getting to the rim with an elite first step. It never happens. That was his biggest NBA potential, and if he doesn't start doing it soon I'm going to be unhappy.

On the plus side, he does have defense and court vision instincts. That''s a nice surprise.

[Revived]

I don't really see how Stauskas could continue to be such a bad 3pt shooter. It has to improve I would think. He was a prolific shooter before the NBA.

NBA 3pt line is further away than high school & college.

[TommyPointGawd]

Lavine has been the most detrimental rookie, perhaps not necessarily the worst. I'm sure there are worse rookies who aren't given the opportunity to makes mistakes as Lavine has been, but because he has it's really been damning to his metrics.

This is not an indictment of his potential or future, however, he has the worst VORP, WAR, RPM, WS, & among the worst BPM in the league.

The baseballifaction of basketball is starting to become annoying. These advance stats allow people to make judgements with ever watching the guys actually play. I have probably watched 5-10 games of Exum and a few more of Lavine. You can see the potential in both. Exum is playing so scared its almost startling. He doesn't want to make any mistakes. He is unselfish to a fault. I would say he hurts his team with this mentality, rookies have to let it all out from time to time. That's the advantage of playing on a bad team.

Lavine however is not scared. His minutes are sparadic and he makes a ton of mistakes. But he has also had big games. He has shown glimpses of being a top player. Creating his own shot taking over games. While his best bet will probably be a JR Smith type. You would be silly to think Exum is better than him in anyway Right Now.Use any Analystic metrics you want. I just can't see it. Future who knows.

[Amish Mafioso]

Wiggins, Parker, Aaron Gordon, and Exum are all age 19, but Exum is by far having the worst season of the 19yr old who got drafted.

So basically, Exum hasn't been better than Wiggins. OMG, time to panic!

[rumdiary]

As I said in the previous thread last week, this year is not about production with Exum. It's about getting used to the speed and physicality of the game. Don't look at the numbers, they are pretty bad, but they don't really reflect the things you have to be excited about with him and they don't reflect the impact he has on the game.

Right now he doesn't capitalize on any of his tools - he blows past opponents with ease and then stops himself when he sees big bodies in the paint and withdraws to the perimeter. He drives and swings awesome passes to the perimeter for spot ups, which are often missed, because our guards/wings(with exception of Hayward) are some of the worst in the league. He is super long, but plays timid and in effect plays short in the paint, because he doesn't enter it with the intention of attacking the rim, but with the idea to always pass... His timidity and lack of physicality reflects in him not even trying to score much(outside of spot up jumpers).

It's the same in defense... he keeps up with his man, he's there, his length disturbs opponents, but doesn't force anything and gets very few steals and blocks, even though he probably defends better than average for his position. And with all that said, he's one of the very few rookies with positive impact on their team...

Here's his on/off numbers:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... -off/2015/

The team is +1.1 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor and -5.4 when he's off the floor. That +6.5 impact, which is second only to Hayward on the Jazz. He's the only player in the Jazz regular rotation with positive balance when on court, not even Hayward gets on the + side. Some of that might have to do with Snyder putting him in situations to succeed and trying to protect him and not letting him stay too much out there when things get tough, but the sample of over 1100 minutes seems good enough to take it seriously and to be able to conclude that he at the very least doesn't hurt the team, mainly by having much better defense than Trey Burke.

Offensively, there is a lot of progress to be made, but the tools are there. We probably won't really know how he will turn out until at least year 3. I personally don't expect anything, but an occasional flash this season. I want to see increase in the aggression next year and consistent probing of the defense and drives to the basket. I won't really be looking at the results, but I'd like to see much more aggressive play from him. We will see how this one goes...

Perfectly put.

I feel the main issue with Exum is lack of offensive aggression and willingness to take contact. On the face of things he looks like a pass-first-Kobe, but he doesn't have that same psychotic drive to dominate... yet.