The Russell Westbrook Thread (2014/15)

[SideshowBob]

Also, don't know if he's reading, but if so...SideshowBob, do you have the SRS numbers w/ and w/o Russ and KD?

OKC In/Out (HCA/SOS adjusted)

Spoiler:

*Westbrook and Durant's injured games have been removed (@LAC and @GSW) for all samples other than full season

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OKC Season (55 G)

+2.84 SRS, +0.6 Offense, -2.0 Defense

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Westbrook, Durant OUT (14 G)

-3.52 SRS, -5.8 Offense, -2.2 Defense

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Westbrook, Durant IN (26 G)

+5.98 SRS, +3.4 Offense, -2.3 Defense

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Westbrook IN, Durant OUT (13 G)

+2.74 SRS, +1.5 Offense, -1.0 Defense

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So Westbrook In/Out shift is +6.25 SRS, and +6.1 shift in adjusted net rating. Durant's presence is coinciding with an SRS shift of +3.25. If I account for portability and the base level they are improving (Westbrook added to -3.5 team, Durant added to +2.75 team), Westbrook comes out as a +5.5 SRS player (which jives with my personal evaluation) and Durant a +3.5. Considering Durant has been A.) playing inconsistent, great at times and hobbled at times due to injury and B.) lower minutes, this does not seem wild. Healthy Durant at ~38 MPG is still a +6ish guy IMO.

Disclaimer: These are observations, not conclusions.

[dfins891]

So far this season in 13 games played without KD, Westbrook is averaging about 32 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds, 2.5 steals in only a little more than 33 minutes per game. Shooting about 46% from the field with a 55 TS%. OKC is 8-5 in those games. 4 of the losses were by 8, 5, 4 and 2 points. The other loss was the first game of the season where the Thunder had 8 healthy players and Perry Jones, Lance Thomas and Telfair all played significant minutes. Overall he's done a pretty great job carrying the team this year without KD. And that's not accounting for all the games KD was not himself in.

[bondom34]

Also, don't know if he's reading, but if so...SideshowBob, do you have the SRS numbers w/ and w/o Russ and KD?

OKC In/Out (HCA/SOS adjusted)

Spoiler:

*Westbrook and Durant's injured games have been removed (@LAC and @GSW) for all samples other than full season

-------------------------------------------------------

OKC Season (55 G)

+2.84 SRS, +0.6 Offense, -2.0 Defense

-------------------------------------------------------

Westbrook, Durant OUT (14 G)

-3.52 SRS, -5.8 Offense, -2.2 Defense

-------------------------------------------------------

Westbrook, Durant IN (26 G)

+5.98 SRS, +3.4 Offense, -2.3 Defense

-------------------------------------------------------

Westbrook IN, Durant OUT (13 G)

+2.74 SRS, +1.5 Offense, -1.0 Defense

-------------------------------------------------------

So Westbrook In/Out shift is +6.25 SRS, and +6.1 shift in adjusted net rating

The man.

[SideshowBob]

snip

Added a little write-up.

[bondom34]

snip

Added a little write-up.

Thanks for this, debating on the GB and gonna use it!

[SideshowBob]

snip

Added a little write-up.

Thanks for this, debating on the GB and gonna use it!

For the missed games arguments, I'd point to Elgee's research on the affect of RS health on championship odds (unsurprisingly, he brought this up in arguing for Russ in the POY thread last season).

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1197767#start_here

(3) Regular Season Player Health matters less than you think.

In the RS, for a normal portability 5 SIO player, playing the whole year results in a 21.4% chance to win the title. Playing half the year? An 20.2% chance. Playing even 10% of the year still results in an 18.0% chance to win the title, assuming the player is playing at a +5 SIO level in the RS and in the PS.

Why? Because the SRS differential the player created in the playoffs is more important than the HCA advantage lost. The majority of below average teams will never see the PS with such a player missing most of the year, but almost every time a player is on an above average team (51% of teams since 1986) his teammates will have qualified for the playoffs. Think Wilt Chamberlain in 1970 or Michael Jordan in 1986 and 1995.

The better the player, the more missing time will hurt him (because of the likelihood of losing HCA in the later rounds against better teams). An 8 SRS player added to a random team gives them a 45% chance of winning title if he's healthy all year. If he plays 10% of the RS and then the playoffs, a 32% chance of winning a title.

There was a bit more data posted in the Top 100 as well, I'll try to dig it up tomorrow.

[SideshowBob]

Westbrook Box-Score with Durant Out (13 G)

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    ORB    DRB    AST    STL    TS%   TOV%    GmSc
34.0   31.7   1.8    4.2    7.8    2.5   .546  .119     24.2

50.7% AST%
42.9% USG
115 ORTG
101 DRTG
~35 PER

[spearsy23]

Westbrook Box-Score with Durant Out (13 G)

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    ORB    DRB    AST    STL    TS%   TOV%    GmSc
34.0   31.7   1.8    4.2    7.8    2.5   .546  .119     24.2

50.7% AST%
42.9% USG
115 ORTG
101 DRTG
~35 PER

Holy. Crap.

[Rust In Peace]

I used to scoff at the notion of Westbrook being better than Durant. WB's incredible play this season is having me rethink that.

[SunKing]

Long time I didn't see a Russell game. Just put up 21/17/8 with 2TOs in 27 minutes while shooting 8/12... Dude suffers hyperactivity

[RSCD3_]

Westbrook Box-Score with Durant Out (13 G)

Code: Select all

MPG    PTS    ORB    DRB    AST    STL    TS%   TOV%    GmSc
34.0   31.7   1.8    4.2    7.8    2.5   .546  .119     24.2

50.7% AST%
42.9% USG
115 ORTG
101 DRTG
~35 PER

His AST% is almost 4.5x larger than his TOV%

[spearsy23]

Durant is GOATbrook's Alfred.

[bondom34]

He doesn't pass enough.
All his assists are inflated from Durant.
He's maybe a top 3 PG.


People finally paying attention, give the man some MVP love. I love what he and Kanter do, I'm amazed at how quickly he's gotten into the offense. They said it on NBATV, but he was involved in 59 points scored in 29 minutes. He was everywhere, doing everything except turning the ball over. Every time I think he reaches a new high, he does this sorta thing. I realized it at halftime, but as a fanbase I feel spoiled getting to see KD and Russ play together, then see last year when Russ was out and KD went off, now Westbrook w/o KD going ham. To top it off, they have this frontcourt of guys all 26 and younger, the youngest playoff team in the west by a good margin, and are playing well at a good time. I'll say it here, but if Durant leaves what he's seeing now, he's nuts.

[bbms]

That's Westbrook's early career vibe. Had capable offensive bigs around, was a 20-10 machine. Much more dangerous weapon now that he has bigs that can take the load offensively.

[Young gun 6]

My pick for the MVP next year as long as the team stays healthy. His usage will be down with Durant playing but i think he can take over and try to be the No.1. It will be tough though as it was for Kobe/Shaq (even though shaq was better for the most part) to conclude a 1 definite for the MVP if it comes down to OKC having the best record in the West.

Could easily see him going for 27/6/11 next season with Kanter there.

[NaturalThunder]

If OKC can re-sign Kanter and stay healthy, they're going to be a special team with "all-time great" capabilities next year. Durant, Russ, and Serge will be in the heart of their peak years and OKC's overall depth and balance will be absurd. It'll be interesting to see if Durant and Russ are viewed as "equally important" and end up splitting too many MVP votes, or if one can clearly take over as the MVP favorite by around the All-Star break.

[bondom34]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/you-t ... westbrook/

Russell Westbrook is the second motherf$*&#ing banana.

Great article!

[BBgun]

Long time I didn't see a Russell game. Just put up 21/17/8 with 2TOs in 27 minutes while shooting 8/12... Dude suffers hyperactivity

That really is the case though. It's like he has real-life ADHD that manifests itself in the way way he plays and benefits him tremendously.

Most players would crumble if they were asked to sustain a usage rate of 42%. They just wouldn't be physically able to do it. For Westbrook, his motor doesn't allow him to do anything else. If he's on the floor, its not possible for him to stop. It's ridiculous really...

[fallacy]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/royceyoung/status/570037971555979264[/tweet]

A: 23.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 7.9 apg, 27.73 PER
B: 27.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 6.8 apg, 27.18 PER
C: 26.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 8.0 apg, 29.24 PER

[ardee]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/royceyoung/status/570037971555979264[/tweet]

A: 23.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 7.9 apg, 27.73 PER
B: 27.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 6.8 apg, 27.18 PER
C: 26.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 8.0 apg, 29.24 PER

Curry
Harden
WB

What was the intention behind that tweet?