Trade Deadline winners & losers

[bondom34]

I dont really care about that. I care about the difference between 7 and 12-15 is smaller than Thomas on a bargain contract.

7 or 12-15 post lottery odds. Or are you including that chance at a top 3 pick, that is as big as the Lakers chance of the top pick right now?

I think you are glossing over if not outright ignoring that, but on top of it, taking a coupe years of 15 picks that include Kawhi and Giannis is a pretty out of the norm sample.


Using the old 82games study for instance (I agree their criterion is bad, but the frequency of players hitting it is very noteworthy):

Pick: Star Solid Roleplayer
7: 30% 40% 25%
15: 10% 15% 30%

Using wins produced, it is roughly 50% higher at 7 than 15, according to 538. No small difference:


I think the stats show exactly why it takes a pick at ~20 to move up (less than) this much, there empirical is a big difference.

Again though post lottery odds work both ways, that puck can move back.

[HartfordWhalers]

I dont really care about that. I care about the difference between 7 and 12-15 is smaller than Thomas on a bargain contract.

7 or 12-15 post lottery odds. Or are you including that chance at a top 3 pick, that is as big as the Lakers chance of the top pick right now?

I think you are glossing over if not outright ignoring that, but on top of it, taking a coupe years of 15 picks that include Kawhi and Giannis is a pretty out of the norm sample.


Using the old 82games study for instance (I agree their criterion is bad, but the frequency of players hitting it is very noteworthy):

Pick: Star Solid Roleplayer
7: 30% 40% 25%
15: 10% 15% 30%

Using wins produced, it is roughly 50% higher at 7 than 15, according to 538. No small difference:


I think the stats show exactly why it takes a pick at ~20 to move up (less than) this much, there empirical is a big difference.

Again though post lottery odds work both ways, that puck can move back.

Odds of 7th going to anything past 8th is under 2% cumulative. But yes. Still, I think that top 3 pick odds are being underrated...

[bondom34]

7 or 12-15 post lottery odds. Or are you including that chance at a top 3 pick, that is as big as the Lakers chance of the top pick right now?

I think you are glossing over if not outright ignoring that, but on top of it, taking a coupe years of 15 picks that include Kawhi and Giannis is a pretty out of the norm sample.


Using the old 82games study for instance (I agree their criterion is bad, but the frequency of players hitting it is very noteworthy):

Pick: Star Solid Roleplayer
7: 30% 40% 25%
15: 10% 15% 30%

Using wins produced, it is roughly 50% higher at 7 than 15, according to 538. No small difference:


I think the stats show exactly why it takes a pick at ~20 to move up (less than) this much, there empirical is a big difference.

Again though post lottery odds work both ways, that puck can move back.

Odds of 7th going to anything past 8th is under 2% cumulative. But yes. Still, I think that top 3 pick odds are being underrated...

But again, still a chance. Plus assuming they don't just happen into the east playoffs and at, plus IT is still only 25, plus its a crazy value contract.

[cl2117]

SNIP
Pick: Star Solid Roleplayer
7: 30% 40% 25%
15: 10% 15% 30%
SNIP

2 questions:

1) What category would you classify Isaiah Thomas as being in Solid or Roleplayer?

2) How confident are you that the Celtics would be pre-lottery at #7?

I think the fact that by trading for IT you are guaranteeing yourself, in my opinion, a solid player and you still get have a chance to get an equal talent at 15 makes it worthwhile. In addition to that I think it's pretty clear that the C's are not going to get a pick in the top 5/6 so 7 is best case scenario. They could have not made the trade for Thomas and still end up with the 9th or 10th pick in the draft (if not later). Does that change your point of view if we are taking about moving from 9 or 10 to 12-15?

And just an aside, with the Celtics draft history, I think you'd have a particularly hard time trying to convince them to place too much weight on jumping into the top 3. Not saying that's right or wrong, but I think on the whole that fan base is going to be a lot more dismissive of that aspect.

[Curmudgeon]

No one tanks to get a #7 pick. The Thomas trade was about maximizing the value of the Celtics' cap space this Summer-- the very first time they've ever had enough cap space to attract one or more significant free agents.

[pacers33granger]

No one tanks to get a #7 pick. The Thomas trade was about maximizing the value of the Celtics' cap space this Summer-- the very first time they've ever had enough cap space to attract one or more significant free agents.

This is kind of how I'm seeing the trade now too. Ainge now has his PG spot locked up for a shade over 10 mil for 3 more years. You'd be hard pressed to find a PG as good as IT this offseason at that price.

And I think Ainge saw that he wasn't going to be in range for one of the centers he'd want since WCS is rising and Towns/Okafor will be top 3. He really has no need for Mudiay/Russell.

They still have a lot of holes to fill, but some of the roster seems to finally be set. That's what free agents want to see. And I'm guessing Ainge will try to make a splash at the draft for another good vet or two to help round out the roster. I'm almost convinced Sully might go with some of the comments lately and his need for a new deal coming soon (but that's just me speculating).

[Curmudgeon]

Plus if the Celtics win more than they lose between now and the end of the year it enhances the trade value of the rotation players who made that happen.

[pacers33granger]

Plus if the Celtics win more than they lose between now and the end of the year it enhances the trade value of the rotation players who made that happen.

Agreed, though I'm struggling to think who that would be since most of the guys who don't expire seem to be keepers for Boston, at least for now. Guys like Bass, Jerebko, Datome, and Crowder expire.

Guys like IT, Bradley, Smart, Olynyk, Zeller could all up their values by the end of the year but I've gotten the impression the Celtics want to keep them (maybe not Zeller or Olynyk depending on what comes up though). I wouldn't expect Young to get enough minutes to do much for his value right now and isn't Sully out for awhile?

I personally expect them to move several picks during the offseason, maybe a young guy or two (like I said, seems likely Sully right now), and then try to keep enough cap space to entice a free agent with a bunch of young guys with potential and tons of picks still coming.

[Curmudgeon]

I don't think they will move Sullinger. His foot injury may be to their advantage if they can extend him on a team-friendly deal. He's a very good player when healthy. Crowder is restricted and if he keeps playing well they will match offers and possibly extend him as well.

But no one is untouchable when Ainge is involved-- no one.