Ruzious wrote:stevemcqueen1 wrote:Ruzious wrote:I would lean toward Olynyk as well - mainly for that extra year. And 7 foot is always better than 6'9 (apologies to Wes Unseld), and Olynyk doesn't have the weight issues. But I'd do it for either one - if I'm really making a push to get Durant. Does nate or anyone else know what Sullinger's cap hold will be in the 2016 offseason?
The cap hold rule for a player coming off their rookie scale contract with four seasons of experience that made less than the league average salary is 250% of previous year's salary according to Larry Coon.
By my calculation that's 250% of 2.27 million, or 5.68 million.
That is a bit of a road block that summer, but depending on what the cap is, it wouldn't necessarily stop us from offering a max deal to Durant.
Just to reiterate:
Wall = 17
Gortat = 12
Beal = 11.4
Porter = 5.9
Webster = 5.8 (only 2.5 guaranteed)
Humphries = 4.6
Blair = 2 (unguaranteed)
2015 and 2016 firsts = ~2.6 million if we pick around 20.
3 min contracts hold = ~1.9 million
That's 63.2 million. You can cut it to about by waiving Webster and Blair 58.7. Add Sullinger's cap hold to the first number and subtract a first round pick and I get 67.6. Waive Webster and Blair and I get 63.1.
I've read the cap is going to be somewhere between 91 million and 95 million. If it's 91, a max offer for Durant will start at 27.3 million the first year. 95 million it's 28.5. We can just afford that if we waive Webster and Blair.
Good stuff. Wow, 90-95 mil really changes things - but like you said - that increases what Durant will cost (30% of the 16/17 cap). If Durant had 1 more year of experience going into the '16 offseason, his max would have been 35%. That could have been 33.25 mil in the first year of his contract - can you imagine? Lebron James doesn't have to imagine - that's what he's probably planning on.
If I were Durant, and I were going to change teams in the summer of 2016, I think I'd negotiate a one year deal with a player option for a second. That way I could renegotiate a 5 year 35% max deal the next summer instead of taking a 4 year 30% max. Not like anyone would tell him no.
A couple other thoughts about that huge jump in the cap: Gortat's deal is going to end up being a bargain, and we really need to try and negotiate Beal's extension this summer.
It seems that 11 to 13 million annually has been the going rate for starting quality seven footers or very good sub 7 foot bigs for the past several years, or roughly 18-20% of a team's cap. Starting in 2016, that commitment jumps up to 18-19 million annually. And the one thing that really stands out about that summer's FA crop other than the bumper FAs and RFAs like Durant/LeBron/Love/Davis/Lillard/Drummond, etc. is how heavy the UFA class is with quality big men. We're going to see a new standard big man tax set that summer, and it'll make us feel good about Gortat's deal.
That's the good news. The bad news is that Beal is going to be so much more expensive if we have to sign him next summer instead of this summer. Beal is really the 4th RFA in that class after Davis, Lillard, and Drummond, and I bet all of them negotiate max deals early. There is going to be way too much cap space floating around that summer. Someone is going to force us to match a max or near max contract offer for him.
We need to use his injury history as leverage to sign him for a sub max deal this summer. I'd sign him without hesitation if I could get him at 11 or 12 million, but I'd go as high as 14 million to make sure the deal got done. Beal at 14 million a year hurts to think about now, but it's a lot better than Beal at 20 - 22 million a year plus annual raises if we wait until 2016. Under a 91 million dollar cap, we'll have about 5 million in extra space in 2016 if we waive Webster and Blair. We should use that money to pay for Beal's early extension.
