The likely 6th pick in the draft: who to take

[drsd]

Title edited as the lottery position is now certain.

Orlando has the greatest shot at the 6th pick in the draft.
Both NBAdraft and NBAexpress have Towns, Okafor, Mudiay, Russel, and Winslow as their top 5 (in some order). So outside of those five who do you like?

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At first glance the Magic is firmly in the 5th slot for the lottery.The team is 2 1/2 games up on 4th-Lakers and 2 1/2 behind 6th-Kings.

Brooklyn 26 38
Denver 25 41
Detroit 23 43
Sacram. 22 43
Orlando 21 46
LA Lakers 17 47
Philadel. 15 51
Minnesota 14 50
New York 13 52

But looking closer there is more to see.
Orlando is only one game up on Sac. in the wins column. Thus if the Kings go to full tank mode, this 2 1/2 game lead is really only a 1/2 game lead. Detroit has lost 10 straight games and appears to be trying to lose at this point. Denver is playing well and the Nets is still fighting for a playoff slot. So, it seems Orlando can do no worse/best than 7th.

In the other direction, Orlando will not get to the NY-Kincks-Sixers-babyWolves level of bad, but looking at the Lakers, there is something there. LAL has a softer final schedule and meets a bunch of bottom dwellers. Overall I also see the team playing harder in the last 10 days, or so. If Orlando goes full tank (i.e. player development), then this 2 1/2 is not that far off.

So Orlando looks certain to be between 4 and 7 in the lottery. And 5 still seems like a very safe bet, but 6 is possible.


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[ralphie9898]

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At first glance the Magic is firmly in the 5th slot for the lottery.The team is 2 1/2 games up on 4th-Lakers and 2 1/2 behind 6th-Kings.

Brooklyn 26 38
Denver 25 41
Detroit 23 43
Sacram. 22 43
Orlando 21 46
LA Lakers 17 47
Philadel. 15 51
Minnesota 14 50
New York 13 52

But looking closer there is more to see.
Orlando is only one game up on Sac. in the wins column. Thus if the Kings go to full tank mode, this 2 1/2 game lead is really only a 1/2 game lead. Detroit has lost 10 straight games and appears to be trying to lose at this point. Denver is playing well and the Nets is still fighting for a playoff slot. So, it seems Orlando can do no worse/best than 7th.

In the other direction, Orlando will not get to the NY-Kincks-Sixers-babyWolves level of bad, but looking at the Lakers, there is something there. LAL has a softer final schedule and meets a bunch of bottom dwellers. Overall I also see the team playing harder in the last 10 days, or so. If Orlando goes full tank (i.e. player development), then this 2 1/2 is not that far off.

So Orlando looks certain to be between 4 and 7 in the lottery. And 5 still seems like a very safe bet, but 6 is possible.


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yeah Orlando has a fairly tough schedule with not that many powderpuff games against the Knicks-Sixers-Wolves and those other lottery destined teams. So that bodes well for us staying right about where we are. I think we end up at best 4th and at worst 6th so I am not to worried. That would be good odds for stealing one of the top three picks and I think it is about time for a move up as we have slid in draft positioning in the last couple of drafts due to the lottery. I am really hoping for Towns but I would be ok with Porzingis as well.

[craig01]

Yeah, there isn't likely to be much change from where they are now. At best, 4, at worst maybe 7. But probably 5 or 6.

[OrlandO]

Detroit has lost 10 straight games and appears to be trying to lose at this point.

Stan isn't trying to lose... he's expressed many times how much he despises tanking - openly blasted us and the sixers for it last year. He is just failing after making a bad trade.

[j-ragg]

Hoping for 4.

Okafor
Towns
Russell
Porzidhdhhfsfndfjidjfis
Johnson

If we get one of the guys though, I'll be happy.

[drsd]

Hoping for 4.

Okafor
Towns
Russell
Porzidhdhhfsfndfjidjfis
Johnson

If we get one of the guys though, I'll be happy.

Indeed the 4th team is most likely to draft 5th and fulfils you wish list. There is more than an 85% chance that the 4th team drafts in the top-5.


Lottery odds are interesting when played out. For teams 1-2, those teams have the greatest chance for themselves to draft 4th. The 3rd and 4th both have the greatest chance to draft 5th, for themselves. And the 5th team is most likely to draft 6th. Only from 6th and on is the team most likely to draft in their own slot.

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[CourtsideTV]

watch us get the #1 pick lol...sign durant in offseason. trade tobias.

payton
dipo
durant
gordon
vucci

#1 pick

FTW!

[Def Swami]

Next 5: CLE, HOU, DAL, POR, DEN

[TreasureCoast]

Cant get 4th if we finish 5th worse. If we finish 5th worse we most likely will land on 6 then 5 then 3rd

[j-ragg]

watch us get the #1 pick lol...sign durant in offseason. trade tobias.

payton
dipo
durant
gordon
vucci

#1 pick

FTW!

Impressive. Signing Durant when he isn't a free agent. Might take some... creative financing?

Spoiler:

[Nemesis21]

We need a top 3 pick to get Towns.

[MagicFan101]

Hypothetically:

Let us say that Orlando has the #5 pick while Okafor and Mudiay go #1 and 2.

Elf, Dipo and Vuc seem locked into our core. So assuming they are off limits, would it be worth packaging Harris or Gordon with the #5 pick to grab Towns at #3?

[Orlwillbeback]

adding one player, especially a rookie, isnt going to turn this dumpster fire around.

[MagicFan101]

adding one player, especially a rookie, isnt going to turn this dumpster fire around.

So just trade for Lebron + Curry + Davis and call it a summer? Sounds easy enough.

[woosah]

Hypothetically:

Let us say that Orlando has the #5 pick while Okafor and Mudiay go #1 and 2.

Elf, Dipo and Vuc seem locked into our core. So assuming they are off limits, would it be worth packaging Harris or Gordon with the #5 pick to grab Towns at #3?

Confused about this because when i suggested something like this could happen people said we can't just trade Tobias, he has to approve it or something like that. Anyway I could see us doing something like this. Depends on how high our FO is on Towns vs Gordon and who the team is at 3 that we would trade with and if they need/want Gordon, but yeah.

[Orlwillbeback]

adding one player, especially a rookie, isnt going to turn this dumpster fire around.

So just trade for Lebron + Curry + Davis and call it a summer? Sounds easy enough.

Im not saying we have to do that but we have to figure something out.

[MagicFan101]

Hypothetically:

Let us say that Orlando has the #5 pick while Okafor and Mudiay go #1 and 2.

Elf, Dipo and Vuc seem locked into our core. So assuming they are off limits, would it be worth packaging Harris or Gordon with the #5 pick to grab Towns at #3?

Confused about this because when i suggested something like this could happen people said we can't just trade Tobias, he has to approve it or something like that. Anyway I could see us doing something like this. Depends on how high our FO is on Towns vs Gordon and who the team is at 3 that we would trade with and if they need/want Gordon, but yeah.

Well considering his upcoming free agency, he unofficially has a say. If a team isn't sure he will re-sign with them then why would they bother?

Luckily, the Lakers and Knicks will fall somewhere towards the top of the lottery. If they results play right we could have a scenario where one of them is interested in a trade. Harris has been rumored to have interest in these big markets and they have been rumored as potential free agent suitors.

Would the #5 pick + Harris + we take on Jose Calderon's contract be enough to grab Towns from NY?

Calderon has 2 more years at about $7.5 M / yr left but would be a quality vet backup to Elf and would allow us to preserve cap space by not matching a mega deal for Harris.

New York gets a guy they seem to want in free agency without fear of Orlando matching while keeping a top 5 pick and shedding cap space to ease the pain of signing Harris.

[woosah]

Hypothetically:

Let us say that Orlando has the #5 pick while Okafor and Mudiay go #1 and 2.

Elf, Dipo and Vuc seem locked into our core. So assuming they are off limits, would it be worth packaging Harris or Gordon with the #5 pick to grab Towns at #3?

Confused about this because when i suggested something like this could happen people said we can't just trade Tobias, he has to approve it or something like that. Anyway I could see us doing something like this. Depends on how high our FO is on Towns vs Gordon and who the team is at 3 that we would trade with and if they need/want Gordon, but yeah.

Well considering his upcoming free agency, he unofficially has a say. If a team isn't sure he will re-sign with them then why would they bother?

Luckily, the Lakers and Knicks will fall somewhere towards the top of the lottery. If they results play right we could have a scenario where one of them is interested in a trade. Harris has been rumored to have interest in these big markets and they have been rumored as potential free agent suitors.

Would the #5 pick + Harris + we take on Jose Calderon's contract be enough to grab Towns from NY?

Calderon has 2 more years at about $7.5 M / yr left but would be a quality vet backup to Elf and would allow us to preserve cap space by not matching a mega deal for Harris.

New York gets a guy they seem to want in free agency without fear of Orlando matching while keeping a top 5 pick and shedding cap space to ease the pain of signing Harris.

If Rob has that option it's hard to imagine him not strongly considering it if Towns is the guy he is targeting. I like Tobes but i don't want to pay a guap and admit that it solves a lot in one move lol (although i would rather have Larkin)

[thelead]

Hypothetically:

Let us say that Orlando has the #5 pick while Okafor and Mudiay go #1 and 2.

Elf, Dipo and Vuc seem locked into our core. So assuming they are off limits, would it be worth packaging Harris or Gordon with the #5 pick to grab Towns at #3?

Confused about this because when i suggested something like this could happen people said we can't just trade Tobias, he has to approve it or something like that. Anyway I could see us doing something like this. Depends on how high our FO is on Towns vs Gordon and who the team is at 3 that we would trade with and if they need/want Gordon, but yeah.

Well considering his upcoming free agency, he unofficially has a say. If a team isn't sure he will re-sign with them then why would they bother?

Luckily, the Lakers and Knicks will fall somewhere towards the top of the lottery. If they results play right we could have a scenario where one of them is interested in a trade. Harris has been rumored to have interest in these big markets and they have been rumored as potential free agent suitors.

Would the #5 pick + Harris + we take on Jose Calderon's contract be enough to grab Towns from NY?

Calderon has 2 more years at about $7.5 M / yr left but would be a quality vet backup to Elf and would allow us to preserve cap space by not matching a mega deal for Harris.

New York gets a guy they seem to want in free agency without fear of Orlando matching while keeping a top 5 pick and shedding cap space to ease the pain of signing Harris.

I don't think Harris can be traded at all until free agency begins (which is after the draft) and that's only if he agree's in a sign and trade.

[MagicFan101]

I don't think Harris can be traded at all until free agency begins (which is after the draft) and that's only if he agree's in a sign and trade.

That may be true. Rules regarding sign and trades are things like it have changed. It has been long enough that I should be more up to date on these things but I just haven't cared enough.