Grade the Bulls' Draft

[coldfish]

That's not necessarily true either.
The Bulls could have won with health and without this upgrade [in which case they still did the right thing].

The Bulls could have lost with health and the upgrade you want [in which case they still did the right thing].

The only scenario you'd have been right is if they won explicitly because of an upgrade they got from trading these two picks, and that seems fairly unlikely given the picks weren't highly valued and the Bulls biggest weakness of lack of secondary shot creators wouldn't have likely been filled by using these picks.

It's (IMO) more likely that their winning or losing wouldn't have been altered by trading these picks for another player even if Rose were healthy. The reasoning was sound, because the expected value of those picks was vastly, vastly exceeded by what the Bulls actually got.

It made sense to give up two picks of what were expected to be minor value to maximize their odds. It would not have been a good bet to give up what looks like two all-stars for a very small upgrade in 2011 though.

I'm guessing that you haven't even read the thread at this point and are just cherry picking stuff to give me grief.

I wasn't advocating trading just the picks. It was Asik (who I was pointing out that he was going to be gone soon), the picks and the Bulls had $5M+ of non guaranteeds and millions more of expirings that could have been used for filler. That's not a small trade package.

But yes Doug, since Rose got hurt the Bulls were better off by far by keeping the picks and drafting who they drafted.

[chitownclown]

The above italicized, which is similar to what Mr X wrote in 2011 a couple of pages back, highlights how much of a non-issue the lack of a draft-night trade was. We weren't going to be able to solve our issues of roster construction by trading a couple of poorly valued draft picks.

Given that, I don't have a problem with the FO picking up future assets. And given the FO's best roster-building has generally been done through the draft, it's a pretty reasonable position for them to take. Their strength in that area showed again, as both picks are examples of shrewd scouting.

If you read through the thread, the Bulls at the time had:
- Millions of dollars worth of non guaranteed deals that could be used as trade filler
- One of Asik or Gibson, who was going to be gone soon
- Two draft picks
- Bogans as a SG

The idea being pushed wasn't to trade the picks for a SG. It was to trade Asik, 2 draft picks and non guaranteeds (effectively pure capspace) for a SG. That certainly wasn't ridiculous.

Thanks for the response.

I have read the thread, and followed the events at the time. The utility of including the 2 picks in any deal in addition to the other assets held at the time (such as the combination proposed above) was not as valuable as holding onto the picks - at least that must have been the judgment at the time.

[dougthonus]

I'm guessing that you haven't even read the thread at this point and are just cherry picking stuff to give me grief.

It's sort of a moot point, so I won't discuss it further after this point.

However, if in any way I'm being unclear, I'm giving you grief because you keep saying you were right when you weren't right.

This is a thread reviewing the Bulls draft in 2011. Your view on this was the Bulls didn't do the right thing (at the time) while history has shown the Bulls had perhaps one of the greatest draft decision nights in the history of the NBA in this draft [when you figure what they had to work with and what they got].

Everything else you've discussed falls under the category of "my thought process was good" which I went way out of my way to agree with by not just saying it once, but saying it at least three separate times. Your thought process, as usual, was outstanding, your reasons were strong, your logic was good, but it would not have yielded good results.

But yes Doug, since Rose got hurt the Bulls were better off by far by keeping the picks and drafting who they drafted.

I would go a step further than that, regardless of whether Rose was hurt, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the Bulls would be far better off having kept these picks still, but it does depend a little bit on whom they may have gotten.

Rose is 26 now, imagine how good the Bulls would be if he was still playing at MVP caliber and we expected that going forward. Even without a trade the Bulls may have won, and they'd be set up as an absolutely dominant force right now. They also may have kept Asik rather than letting him walk if Rose hadn't been hurt, same may have been true of Korver.

[TheStig]

I'm guessing that you haven't even read the thread at this point and are just cherry picking stuff to give me grief.

It's sort of a moot point, so I won't discuss it further after this point.

However, if in any way I'm being unclear, I'm giving you grief because you keep saying you were right when you weren't right.

This is a thread reviewing the Bulls draft in 2011. Your view on this was the Bulls didn't do the right thing (at the time) while history has shown the Bulls had perhaps one of the greatest draft decision nights in the history of the NBA in this draft [when you figure what they had to work with and what they got].

Everything else you've discussed falls under the category of "my thought process was good" which I went way out of my way to agree with by not just saying it once, but saying it at least three separate times. Your thought process, as usual, was outstanding, your reasons were strong, your logic was good, but it would not have yielded good results.

But yes Doug, since Rose got hurt the Bulls were better off by far by keeping the picks and drafting who they drafted.

I would go a step further than that, regardless of whether Rose was hurt, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the Bulls would be far better off having kept these picks still, but it does depend a little bit on whom they may have gotten.

Rose is 26 now, imagine how good the Bulls would be if he was still playing at MVP caliber and we expected that going forward. Even without a trade the Bulls may have won, and they'd be set up as an absolutely dominant force right now. They also may have kept Asik rather than letting him walk if Rose hadn't been hurt, same may have been true of Korver.

Common Doug! This is like a bank shot. The Bulls weren't expecting it and didn't call it. But its still 2 points.

No one expected Jimmy Butler to be an all star and we weren't sure when, if, or how good Mirotic would be or that he'd ever play for us.

Kudos to the Bulls, this is one of the best hauls ever. But its not like anyone came out and thought it at the time. Part of the draft is luck and the Bulls are as lucky as it gets. Even if they only have a 1.7% chance. The very next year we got Marquis Teague. So clearly its not a science.

[DASMACKDOWN]

Going forward and seeing how things could potentially play out, this will easily go down as the 3rd best draft day in Bulls history.

1st being the year we drafted MJ obviously.
The second is between Krause's Pippen + Grant draft.

2011 - is best case bang for your buck.

The Spurs would be extremely proud.

[dice]

there was no reason to believe rose would get injured at the time of the 2011 draft. but because of that there was also no reason to believe the bulls wouldn't still be contenders for many years going forward. there was never a pressing need to make a short-term improvement trade at the expense of future opportunities

[BigLos2010]

If you look back at the trade landscape at the time, you maybe (maybe) could've traded those assets (Asik and the picks) for Monta Ellis, who at the time was a poor man's Rose. In a dream landscape, you would have had a package to get Chris Paul (though we were never in the hunt for him with our MVP point guard) in that time frame.

I agree with Doug on this. You're reasoning was sound, but it's likely that GarPax knew the landscape wasn't great for trading for a good fit at SG and decided that trading for the assets was the better move.

The real issue to me is that Jimmy, the rights to Mirotic and Omer Asik would've been a very competitive offer to what the Rockets ended up giving OKC for Harden in 2012.

[Moon]

The bulls have done well for themselves for the most part in the draft.....they come up short in the holding on to "their guys" too long. Draft A