Why Chris Paul should win MVP

[Quake Griffin]

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/3/18/82422 ... r-nba-2015

[JayClips92]

Good read. Would be interested to see what the general board has to say about it

[QRich3]

The article exaggerates some things slightly, makes some good points too. I don't think he should be the frontrunner for MVP, but he definitely has to be in the conversation, and should be voted in the top 3 or top 4 at most. I've been saying all season that this is his best year as a Clipper, glad I have some support lately

[Ranma]

I agree that Chris Paul deserves to be in the conversation and that he's actually under-rated, but I wouldn't vote for him now since he needs to be more aggressive. Ironically, his case is hurt by deferring some playmaking duties to Blake Griffin. Blake needs to touch the ball less as he stalls the offense at times focusing too much on his perimeter play instead of going to the hoop. While his current 2.3 assist-to-turnover ratio is decent for a big man, he has a high rate of turnovers relative to a guy who shouldn't really be handling the ball that much. He may be a work in progress as a playmaker, but the team needs to have CP3 running the offense more instead of BG.

John Schuhmann, NBA.com (3/20/15)

The Clippers have the No. 1 offense in the league (by a hair over the Warriors) and Chris Paul obviously deserves a ton of credit for it. The difference between L.A.’s efficiency on possessions he has touched the ball (116.0 points per 100 possessions) and on possessions he has not touched it or been off the floor (98.3) is the largest in the league among players who have been on the floor for at least 2,000 offensive possessions. It’s a crowded field, but Paul has a legit MVP case.
...

In fact, there are 36 power forwards and centers, led by Blake Griffin at 68.0 percent, with a higher touch percentage than Davis. Kris Humphries (56.1 percent) has been more likely to touch the ball on a Wizards possession he’s been on the floor for than Davis has been to touch it on a Pelicans possession.

In MVP Chatter, Touches Speak Loudly

[Woodsanity]

The article exaggerates some things slightly, makes some good points too. I don't think he should be the frontrunner for MVP, but he definitely has to be in the conversation, and should be voted in the top 3 or top 4 at most. I've been saying all season that this is his best year as a Clipper, glad I have some support lately

Not his best but an underrated season by far. He hasn't missed any games too.

[og15]

CP has been great, he should definitely be in the conversation. I don't think he should win, but he should be up there, he's done a great job on both ends this season. Picked up the defense more as the season went on.

[Quake Griffin]

Too bad the narrative from earlier in the year that every average joe who laced up a pair of sneakers passed him up will probably linger around on this forum.


#lillardoverpaulforallstar
fukinlol

[Ranma]

Kirk Goldsberry, Grantland (3/11/15)

No matter how you slice it, Paul is having a phenomenal year. He’s getting assists like Magic, draining midrange jumpers like Dirk, getting steals like Gary Payton, and he’s not even mentioned in most MVP conversations.

Among the pantheon of contemporary NBA superstars, the one tie that binds much of the league’s brightest talents together is an uncommon blend of size, athleticism, and basketball talent. LeBron is built like a tight end but can pass and handle like a much smaller player. Russell Westbrook looks like a running back but can jump out of the gym. Anthony Davis, well, he’s just a monster with a wet jumper. And then there’s Chris Paul, who’s equally as good, despite being shaped and sized like a relatively normal person.

Nobody blends playmaking, scoring, and defense as effectively as he does, and nowhere on the court is that work more evident than around the elbows. Paul won’t win the MVP this season, but that’s fine. He’s still the MVPG.

Monster of the Midrange: Don’t Sleep on Chris Paul’s Deadly Elbow Jumper

[nickhx2]

great article. and i just had this stupidly obvious realization that age is going to take a LONG time to catch up to our superstar PG.

how fun is it knowing that?

[Ranma]

Bill Simmons, Grantland (3/17/15)

CP3 spent the first half of this season getting into shape (it’s true) while remaining supernaturally efficient; he’d routinely take quarters off and halves off and seemed even grouchier than usual. When Blake went down, CP3 unleashed holy hell; he has vaulted to that Westbrook/Harden/LeBron/Davis/Curry level for a solid month (and counting) while carrying a limited team. As Doc loves to point out, CP3 actually plays both ends and loves disrupting other point guards; new advanced metrics even back up CP3’s defensive brilliance. (I went to a Grizzlies game a few weeks ago in which he absolutely destroyed Mike Conley, who’s only one of the league’s best 25 players.) And CP3’s pull-up elbow jumper remains the NBA’s best crunch-time weapon. It’s about as sure of a thing as you can get these days.

And yet … CP3 is also a basketball curmudgeon, someone who dominates the ball in close games to an almost harmful degree. He doesn’t trust anyone else late; he’s like one of those moms who won’t let anyone babysit her kids. His teammates know it, and even worse, his opponents know it. Can you win in the playoffs that way? Doesn’t it open the door for what happened in Game 5 of last spring’s OKC series? Can you point to another example of a ball-dominating little guy who also won four straight playoff rounds? He’s certainly the best pure point guard since Isiah Thomas — another fiery competitor who demanded perfection from everyone around him. But Isiah trusted his teammates way more than CP3 does. If CP3 is more dictatorial, then Isiah was more democratic. He allowed Dumars and Vinnie to freelance in big spots and never needed the ball late like CP3 often does. You would have loved playing with Isiah. You wouldn’t have loved playing with Oscar. And CP3 is floating somewhere in between those two extremes. It’s crazy that he hasn’t played in a conference finals game yet … but it’s also not that crazy.

2015 NBA Trade Value, Part 3: The Final Countdown


Kirk Goldsberry, Grantland (2/24/15)

According to Franks and Miller, Chris Paul is the best perimeter defender in the NBA. They have empirical evidence that the Clippers point guard suppresses and disrupts shot activity as much or more than any other guard in the league.

Below is Paul’s defensive shot chart for the 2013-14 season. Think of it as the inverse of a conventional shot chart: It reflects the shooting behavior of players when Paul was defending them. The sizes of the symbols on the chart correspond to shot frequency; the color of the symbols represents shot efficiency.



Paul’s chart is peppered with tiny blue dots. This indicates two things: He suppressed the expected shot activity of his nightly assignments and reduced their shot efficiency.

It’s also important to note that the model accounts for baseline activity and effectiveness of the players he was defending. As a result, these defensive shot charts are an aggregate depiction of whether a defender’s assignments shot more or less frequently, and whether they shot more or less accurately than we would expect. If a defender drew a perfectly average response, in both frequency and effectiveness, his chart would be full of medium-size yellow hexagons. But as you can see, Paul’s chart is full of tiny, mostly blue symbols — dots, really. This means that, whether he was guarding Stephen Curry or Rajon Rondo, on average, Paul reduced his opponents’ field goal attempts and field goal percentage.

Those tiny hexagons all over the court mean that players rarely shot when Paul was the on-ball defender. The fact that they’re tiny blue hexagons means that when they did shoot, they were really ineffective. Results from the Franks-Miller study reveal that among all perimeter defenders, Paul’s matchups exhibited some of the biggest decreases in both shot frequency and shot efficiency.
...

No player in Franks-Miller is as stingy as CP3, who allowed 11 points per 100 possessions while dealing with ferocious NBA matchups — Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, Tony Parker, et al. — on a nightly basis. Paul’s matchups ended up shooting about 80 percent as much as expected, while Harden’s matchups ended up shooting about 114 percent as much as expected.

Points Against (Backcourt Defenders), 2013-14

Chris Paul: 10.8
Norris Cole: 11.1
Nick Calathes: 12.0
C.J. Watson: 12.0
Greivis Vasquez: 12.3

Department of Defense

[QRich3]

It's hilarious how Simmons just latches on to whatever opinion the knowledgeable guys around him have. He's just a sheep, it's pretty amusing to see how he realizes he's unable to properly analyze basketball, and claims that him and Zach Lowe, Bob Voulgaris and Goldsberry happen to agree most of the time, when he's just really replicating whatever they say without understanding why or how.

He starts the season saying Paul's not the same, the Clippers don't like each other, blah blah blah, and then when Lowe starts saying Paul should be an MVP candidate, and Goldsberry says he's the best perimeter defender in the league, he just makes up a narrative about how Paul started the season getting into shape but he's always been impressed.

He's now saying Blake's not that good and mindlessly following the 'he's turned into a jump shooter' narrative, I can't wait until the guys around him start praising Blake again and he shifts his opinion like he always knew

He's only better than Skip Bayless in the sense that he realizes he doesn't have a clue and surrounds himself with people who do.

[Quake Griffin]

Bill Simmons pisses me off to no end.

Stop saving face. Paul proved you wrong.
That's no reason to open your mouth making a claim that he spent the beginning of the year playing himself into shape.
We all know Paul has hammie issues every year and if you're going to say he came into the season out of shape (indirectly saying he played with fire with his hamstring) and tried to play his way in, it better have some merit behind it.

Another village idiot making money off of the bball culture not knowing a damn thing.
Sad thing is, there's other nerds who couldn't hoop just like him who think he's cool because of the pop culture references etc. etc. Biggest **** tool surrounding the league.

[nickhx2]

LOL god i just came here to say THIS (to qrich) and THIS (to quake).

he's such an ignorant ****, i stopped reading him years ago but somehow he never fails to stop pissing me off.

so thanks for that this morning, i guess.

[Woodsanity]

Actually CP3 played great to start the season while Blake was terrible(by his standards). Then CP started to fall off a bit but he was never in the MVP convo to begin with even though he should have been sicne the start.

[QRich3]

Actually CP3 played great to start the season while Blake was terrible(by his standards). Then CP started to fall off a bit but he was never in the MVP convo to begin with even though he should have been sicne the start.

I've heard stuff similar to this a few times, but I think that's only true if you look at shooting numbers, which only tell a small part of the story. I don't think Blake was bad to start the season (offensively at least), he was just adjusting to a different new role, and I don't think Paul went into any sort of slump. Yes, his shooting numbers went down a bit (minuscule though) in the middle of the season, but that's the nature of shooting, numbers fluctuate until they stabilize with enough of a sample size. I thought Paul has been his usual consistent self all season, and people are just starting to take notice because he kept us afloat when Blake was injured, and our schedule has been a bit softer so we've won more games. But in reality his performance has been very consistent all year.

[nickhx2]

btw just read that department of defense article. really interesting stuff and further cements just how good cp3 is. but i don't think anyone outside of bill simmons really needed to know that.

[Woodsanity]

Actually CP3 played great to start the season while Blake was terrible(by his standards). Then CP started to fall off a bit but he was never in the MVP convo to begin with even though he should have been sicne the start.

I've heard stuff similar to this a few times, but I think that's only true if you look at shooting numbers, which only tell a small part of the story. I don't think Blake was bad to start the season (offensively at least), he was just adjusting to a different new role, and I don't think Paul went into any sort of slump. Yes, his shooting numbers went down a bit (minuscule though) in the middle of the season, but that's the nature of shooting, numbers fluctuate until they stabilize with enough of a sample size. I thought Paul has been his usual consistent self all season, and people are just starting to take notice because he kept us afloat when Blake was injured, and our schedule has been a bit softer so we've won more games. But in reality his performance has been very consistent all year.

Actually its not so much a slump as it is Blake shooting waaaaaaaay more jumpers. He barely went inside and shot midrange jumpers like he was an elite jump shooter like Dirk/CP3. The problem is he should be playing inside/out like last season not playing like Dirk. If you shoot mid range jumpers at a rate of about 40% you should not be shooting that many.

Not to mention his rebounding regressed really badly and his defense was awful.

Not an exaggeration to say that last years Blake was far far better.

[og15]

Long rant....

Simmons has forever been going on with this idea that Chris Paul doesn't want to give anyone else the ball down the stretch and is a control freak and how it is to the detriment of the team. I actually felt that compared to the Vinny era where Jamal was used more as a spot up shooter in crunch time (and a great one), the team has given Jamal the ball a little much to be a primary ball handler and decision maker in crunch time.

I love him as the spot up shooter who CAN create if needed down the stretch of games, but not so much as the give Jamal the ball and let him make decisions role as he's generally one track minded.

People do see what they want to see, that's for sure. For one, Paul is 18th in the league in 5 minutes or less "crunch time" USG. USG isn't perfect, but Paul has the same usage as LaMarcus Aldridge in the last 5 minutes of games within 5 points. Last two minutes, he's 11th (40.9%). Guys like Lebron (50.7%), Westbrook (58.7%) and Kobe (60.9%) head the list at over 50%. Then we have the guys over ~45%, Curry (48.9%), Harden (48.1%), Wade (45.5%), Carmelo (45.2%), Ellis (44.9%).

I wouldn't have guessed it; teams put the ball in the hands of their primary ball handlers who are great shot creators, decision makers and shooters to close out games. Simmons is trying to make it seem like Paul is doing something specifically different from similar players, but he isn't. Chris Paul's USG in the last 2 minutes (40.9%) is similar to Kyle Lowry (40.9%), George Hill (39%), Kemba (38.9%), Knight (38.9%), Wall (38.1%), Durant (37.2%), Lillard (37%), Hayward (36.6%), Evans (36.2%), Irving (35.4%).

If we look at Cleveland, Lebron and Irving are combining for about 85% of the crunch time usage, it's not really an issue, why would you want Love or Mozgov or Smith being the ones deciding what happens with the ball? Last season, Paul was 6th, below Irving, Walker, Durant, Carmelo, Nick Young.

Now CP does take a lot of shots down the stretch. He's 3rd in the league % of teams FGA taken in close games inside two minutes, behind only Kobe and Westrbook. The missed games by Blake and Crawford this season add to that, last season he was 6th, and it wasn't anything drastically different from other primary ball handling stars. He was in the same range as guys like Harden, Curry, Bledsoe, Monta Ellis, Lebron, etc.

He's been a poor shot maker down the stretch this season, shooting Westbrook like numbers (no offense to Westbrook, but actually making a lot of shots in the last 2 minutes of games has never been his thing). CP was much better last season and in previous seasons, but then again, with the small sample sizes, we can't extrapolate too much from this as a game or two shooting well changes everything as well as shooting poorly.

Really Paul would be better off just continuing to trust his mid-range pull up and step back and not trying to force himself to the basket more like he's attempted recently. Also like I've said before, depending on how much time there actually is, I'm a bigger fan of getting the best shot possible vs strictly forcing an isolation shot down the stretch anyways. It's not always possible though. CP has generally been excellent at that, even if the shot is him shooting. In New Orleans, the threat and ability of David West, an excellent mid-range shooter (career 47.3% from 16-23) was also helpful to this end. Clippers don't have that consistent bailout option with Blake.

The reality we do have to accept is that Blake is not a great isolation player or a fully reliable enough ball handler (even though he is good) or shooter for you to really just dump him the ball and say "go to work", get a basket. He can do it in closing minutes, but in shot clock situation, he's not the best at that, most bigs aren't. He takes longer to set up his moves than Paul. His effective range is not as good. He can't get to spots as easily. He's more susceptible to losing the ball to help defense. Now you can say "isolate Blake in order to create a shot for others", but if you're defending the Clippers and Blake is isolated against Duncan, Ibaka, Draymond Green, LMA, etc with little time left, do you help off a guy like Redick or Jamal unless it is a really open drive or do you just play trying to make him take something at least decently contested over length?

Blake is great overall, but he shoots 35% on tightly contested shots >10 feet and 35% on attempts where he has the ball for more than 6 seconds. Chris Paul shoots 43.9% on tightly contested shots >10 feet and 50.2% on attempts when he has the ball for more than 6 seconds. That's a drastic different on both counts.

The reason you want your best isolation scorer and guy that's best at creating something from chaos with the ball is that defense is more active and tighter at the end of games. You want to be able to have a first option play that gets the best open look, but then have a second option if things break down of being able to isolate effectively. If you start with the ball in the hands of Matt Barnes and he's supposed to get it to Paul, but then the opposition plays great denial defense, now you have Barnes with the ball in his hands and little time on the clock. If you force it and it takes Barnes 4 seconds to get Paul the ball 27 feet from the basket and you had 8 seconds to start, now you have 4 seconds left and Paul has to go very quickly. That's just not productive.

This is why even a genius coach like Pop will still set the ball up to go into Manu Ginobili or Tony Parker's hands if there's less clock time because defense in the 47th minute when there's nothing else to play for is a lot more intense than defense in the 35th minute, and getting the ball to this or that guy becomes harder and getting open becomes harder.

It's why Kyle Korver only takes 11.7% of the Hawks FGA inside 2 minutes which is dead last among all their starters. Teams are specifically saying "don't let a Korver or a Redick get open", which is good because they draw defensive attention away from the primary action, but actually getting those guys open shots becomes much more difficult.

Short Summary:
Simmons doesn't hold the same standards for all primary ball handlers as he holds to Paul and isn't thinking of team specific issues that cause Paul to many times have to take more shots. While I personally prefer making the best play possible myself, people in general can sometimes forget that getting open shots at the end of a game is not very easy, which is why coaches play the numbers and go the safe route of at least having the ball in the hands of a guy who is a good, sure handed shot creator so that if the designed play doesn't work, they can scramble and freestyle as a backup effectively enough.

[QRich3]

Actually CP3 played great to start the season while Blake was terrible(by his standards). Then CP started to fall off a bit but he was never in the MVP convo to begin with even though he should have been sicne the start.

I've heard stuff similar to this a few times, but I think that's only true if you look at shooting numbers, which only tell a small part of the story. I don't think Blake was bad to start the season (offensively at least), he was just adjusting to a different new role, and I don't think Paul went into any sort of slump. Yes, his shooting numbers went down a bit (minuscule though) in the middle of the season, but that's the nature of shooting, numbers fluctuate until they stabilize with enough of a sample size. I thought Paul has been his usual consistent self all season, and people are just starting to take notice because he kept us afloat when Blake was injured, and our schedule has been a bit softer so we've won more games. But in reality his performance has been very consistent all year.

Actually its not so much a slump as it is Blake shooting waaaaaaaay more jumpers. He barely went inside and shot midrange jumpers like he was an elite jump shooter like Dirk/CP3. The problem is he should be playing inside/out like last season not playing like Dirk. If you shoot mid range jumpers at a rate of about 40% you should not be shooting that many.

Not to mention his rebounding regressed really badly and his defense was awful.

Not an exaggeration to say that last years Blake was far far better.

That's what I'm saying though, it's very shortsighted to just look at how he shoots and where he shoots from, and think that's all he's doing. We've talked about this a million times in this forum, but by operating from the elbows and the high post he might take more jumpers, but he's also making plays for everyone else and that gives us a new dimension that we didn't have last year, it results in an uber-efficient offense and opens a lot of options that make us harder to stop. I think it couldn't be more wrong to think he should stop taking jumpers and just play more inside, when the team's offense has been better and more versatile with him playing further from the basket this year.

[mattd13]

simmons should not be commenting on anything related to basketball period. cp3 has been great this year. my only complaint would be in the last minute of close games. he has made poor decisions and made turn overs. I think the coaching at this time is part of the problem. they need to have a better plan.