GT #68: Wizards @ Jazz 10:30 PM (CSN/99.1 FM) [3/18/15]

[TGW]

His complete numbers from the last five games are amazing:

MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
35.2 8.6-14.6 .589 1.2-2.2 .545 4.0-4.8 .833 6.4 8.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 3.2 22.4

Makes you wonder - what would this team be like without Wall - or even with a league average replacement for him? I think the answer would be depressing.

With Wall on the floor, they're +5.3 per 100 possessions -- the quality of a 55-win team over an 82-game schedule.

Without Wall on the floor, they're -9.0 per 100 possessions -- the quality of a 19-win team over an 82-game schedule.

That said, Wall is good, but this is also an indictment of not just his backups, but the rest of the bench as well.

Thanks for that. I had a discussion with DCZards a few months ago about this...essentially this team ain't poo without Wall, and he's the reason the team is competitive. Without him, they are clearly a lottery team. He disagreed.

[DCZards]

Makes you wonder - what would this team be like without Wall - or even with a league average replacement for him? I think the answer would be depressing.

With Wall on the floor, they're +5.3 per 100 possessions -- the quality of a 55-win team over an 82-game schedule.

Without Wall on the floor, they're -9.0 per 100 possessions -- the quality of a 19-win team over an 82-game schedule.

That said, Wall is good, but this is also an indictment of not just his backups, but the rest of the bench as well.

Thanks for that. I had a discussion with DCZards a few months ago about this...essentially this team ain't poo without Wall, and he's the reason the team is competitive. Without him, they are clearly a lottery team. He disagreed.

I'm afraid you're confusing me with someone else, TGW. We've never discussed JW or his value to the Zards.

[tontoz]

Like Nivek said the 19 game figure is a bit misleading because those minutes are filled with bench players.

Put an average/slightly below average starting pg in Wall's place and how many do they win? I would guess low 30s.

[TGW]

Like Nivek said the 19 game figure is a bit misleading because those minutes are filled with bench players.

Put an average/slightly below average starting pg in Wall's place and how many do they win? I would guess low 30s.

Hmmm....that's interesting.

Nivek--can you run the numbers with Darren Collison in place of Wall? Just wondering.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Like Nivek said the 19 game figure is a bit misleading because those minutes are filled with bench players.

Put an average/slightly below average starting pg in Wall's place and how many do they win? I would guess low 30s.

Hmmm....that's interesting.

Nivek--can you run the numbers with Darren Collison in place of Wall? Just wondering.

Just did a quick and dirty estimate using PPA. I estimate Wall as being worth about 7.5 wins as of my last update (which was a week ago). Assuming Collison could play the same number of minutes (he's missed a lot of time this year), I estimate him being worth 6.3 wins so far this year.

Collison has been better than average this season, though (PPA: 132)

C.J. Watson is the most "average" PG -- I estimate him being worth 4.7 wins.

Or, if you prefer a full-time starter, there's Oladipo (PPA: 102). That level of production would be worth about 4.8 wins in the same minutes Wall has played thus far.

[payitforward]

Just did a quick and dirty estimate using PPA. I estimate Wall as being worth about 7.5 wins as of my last update (which was a week ago).

Or... there's Oladipo (PPA: 102). That level of production would be worth about 4.8 wins in the same minutes Wall has played thus far.

IOW, w/ Oladipo instead of Wall your numbers say we'd have @ 3 fewer wins.

Boxscoregeeks.com, using WP48, credits Wall w/ 11.5 wins in 2425 minutes. Oladipo they credit with 4.4 wins in 2105 minutes -- just under 5.1 wins if you extend to the more minutes John has played.

Your calculation and WP48 are quite close on Oladipo (w/in 6% of each other), but far apart on Wall (53% -- though you may be using somewhat fewer than 2425 minutes).

I'd be interested in how you distribute responsibility for wins among all the Wizards' players: would it be a lot of trouble for you to post how many wins each of the players has produced (i.e. calculated w/ your system)?

(I assume you do this calculation of win-productivity independent of a team's actual record. I.e. to avoid circularity.)

[Ruzious]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

[payitforward]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

Kevin put him in. I believe he plays about half his minutes at the point.

[Ruzious]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

Kevin put him in. I believe he plays about half his minutes at the point.

Sure it's always Kevin's fault. Maybe he did as a rookie out of necessity, but he's not a PG. He's on his way to becoming a heckuva shooting guard. I would have loved to trade Beal for him.

[payitforward]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

Kevin put him in. I believe he plays about half his minutes at the point.

Sure it's always Kevin's fault. Maybe he did as a rookie out of necessity, but he's not a PG. He's on his way to becoming a heckuva shooting guard. I would have loved to trade Beal for him.

You're right -- Payton's playing almost 30 minutes at pg, and especially now that they have Ridnour backing him up there can't be time there for VO.

[hands11]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

Kevin put him in. I believe he plays about half his minutes at the point.

Man, VO would have been a nice pick up in that draft.

Would have been a sick back court rotation and protected against Beal getting max if he wasn't worth it.

Sucks he went up the charts so far. He was much lower in the draft earlier when no one was projecting him top 3.

Len would have been another fine choice.

No matter who we picked, they were going to be a back up for a few years and likely not worth the #3.

Come on Otto. Step it up brother. Some up some sizzle.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

I'll blame this one on basketball-reference, which lists Oladipo as a PG.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

I'll blame this one on basketball-reference, which lists Oladipo as a PG.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Just did a quick and dirty estimate using PPA. I estimate Wall as being worth about 7.5 wins as of my last update (which was a week ago).

Or... there's Oladipo (PPA: 102). That level of production would be worth about 4.8 wins in the same minutes Wall has played thus far.

IOW, w/ Oladipo instead of Wall your numbers say we'd have @ 3 fewer wins.

Boxscoregeeks.com, using WP48, credits Wall w/ 11.5 wins in 2425 minutes. Oladipo they credit with 4.4 wins in 2105 minutes -- just under 5.1 wins if you extend to the more minutes John has played.

Your calculation and WP48 are quite close on Oladipo (w/in 6% of each other), but far apart on Wall (53% -- though you may be using somewhat fewer than 2425 minutes).

I'd be interested in how you distribute responsibility for wins among all the Wizards' players: would it be a lot of trouble for you to post how many wins each of the players has produced (i.e. calculated w/ your system)?

(I assume you do this calculation of win-productivity independent of a team's actual record. I.e. to avoid circularity.)

I'll circle back to this when I have a chance to update my numbers again. What I have is a week old at this point.

Correct that the individual wins estimation is done independent of record. What I do is geared toward scoring differential, not wins specifically. Since the Wizards scoring differential has lagged their win total all season, I'd expect my estimated wins to be lower than their actual win total.

I know Wins Produced is aimed at the same goal. I'm a little surprised to see the Wizards' WP total at roughly 44 wins. I'd have expected them to be a little under as well. Interesting.

I'll loop back to this when I've updated.

[tontoz]

Props to Gortat for pulling off a flop that contributed to a victory.

NEW YORK -- Washington Wizards center Marcin Gortat has been fined $5,000 by the NBA for violating the league's anti-flopping rules for the second time this season.

With 4:31 remaining in the fourth quarter of Washington's 88-84 victory Wednesday night, Gortat and Jazz forward Rodney Hood tried to position for a rebound. The league ruled that Gortat exaggerated a push from Hood -- sending Gortat stumbling into the stanchion under the net and drawing a foul.

Gortat made both free throws to extend Washington's lead to 80-75.

Per NBA rules, a player receives a warning for his first flopping offense, and a $5,000 fine for a second. A third offense would cost Gortat $10,000.

[stevemcqueen1]

I want to know how many times James Harden and Chris Paul have been fined for flopping this season. The league only ever goes after average players like Gortat for flopping, not the worst offenders whose entire game is predicated on fooling refs.

[sfam]

Our defense was the only reason we were in this game. Yes, our long shooting, especially from Wall and Pierce was great, but it was our D that overcame the horrific turnovers. Wall was pretty amazing on offense and D. I think he's gonna be unstoppable in a year or two as his shot matures.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I want to know how many times James Harden and Chris Paul have been fined for flopping this season. The league only ever goes after average players like Gortat for flopping, not the worst offenders whose entire game is predicated on fooling refs.

So far this season, only three players have been fined for flopping: Gortat, PJ Hairston and CJ Watson.

[payitforward]

Oladipo's not even a point guard, so I'm not sure how he got in the discussion.

Kevin put him in. I believe he plays about half his minutes at the point.

Man, VO would have been a nice pick up in that draft.

Would have been a sick back court rotation and protected against Beal getting max if he wasn't worth it.

Sucks he went up the charts so far. He was much lower in the draft earlier when no one was projecting him top 3.

Len would have been another fine choice.

No matter who we picked, they were going to be a back up for a few years and likely not worth the #3.

Come on Otto. Step it up brother. Some up some sizzle.

Beal and Oladipo are about equally productive -- VO is a little bit better off the numbers at this point, but not much better.

It's worth noting that Oladipo is more than a year older than Beal. He started playing high level college ball as Brad Beal entered his junior year of high school. Just saying -- I know you weren't criticizing Beal....

Hey, one question Hands: you express skepticism about Noel because he's getting minutes on a lousy team. Could say exactly the same thing about Oladipo, no? How come you're not as skeptical about him?

[payitforward]

I want to know how many times James Harden and Chris Paul have been fined for flopping this season. The league only ever goes after average players like Gortat for flopping, not the worst offenders whose entire game is predicated on fooling refs.

So... what you're saying is that James Harden and Chris Paul's "entire game is predicated on fooling refs"? Do I have that right? That's what you think?