What kind of contracts will these FA Centers get this summer?

[Smitty731]

The difference between when Big Al plays and Bismack plays for the Hornets is like night and day. Biz is a good young defender. I can think of a lot of teams that would like to have him.

For 14 million per? I hope not. Or this "new" NBA and it's contracts are going to be really ridiculous. With the current Max structure it won't happen, but if Biyombo is worth 14 million per then DeAndre Jordan is worth about 28 because he's twice the player Biyombo is and likely ever will be.

[HornetJail]

Omer Asik - 2/20
Enes Kanter - 4/48
Brandan Wright - 2/16
Bismack Biyombo - 4/32
Tyson Chandler - 3/36
Robin Lopez - 2/20
Alexis Ajinca - 2/8
Kosta Koufos - 2/8
J.McGee - 1/3
Ed Davis - 2/8

[jbk1234]

The difference between when Big Al plays and Bismack plays for the Hornets is like night and day. Biz is a good young defender. I can think of a lot of teams that would like to have him.

For 14 million per? I hope not. Or this "new" NBA and it's contracts are going to be really ridiculous. With the current Max structure it won't happen, but if Biyombo is worth 14 million per then DeAndre Jordan is worth about 28 because he's twice the player Biyombo is and likely ever will be.

My first guess was 4/48. I find it curious that people have no problem with the notion that Kanter will get 4/40 but find the notion that Bismack could get more as shocking. I suspect there will be one team bidding on Kanter's services and many teams interested in Bismack. Asik is the second best defender on that list, he's underwhelmed since the Rockets signed Dwight, and he's no longer young. How many teams want a defensive presence on the interior?

[Smitty731]

My first guess was 4/48. I find it curious that people have no problem with the notion that Kanter will get 4/40 but find the notion that Bismack could get more as shocking. I suspect there will be one team bidding on Kanter's services and many teams interested in Bismack. Asik is the second best defender on that list, he's underwhelmed since the Rockets signed Dwight, and he's no longer young. How many teams want a defensive presence on the interior?

Asik was pretty good this year, despite being banged up. Davis openly said how much having Asik, when they have both been healthy, has helped him. He can be more aggressive knowing that Asik is backing him up.

I think Kanter is a far better player than Biyombo. You play Biyombo and you play 4 on 5 on offense. He may be the worst offensive player in the league who plays regular minutes. Kanter is a very good offensive player, and he's passable on defense when paired with another good defender. That has been shown with OKC. He's been pretty good with Ibaka and Adams.

No way Biyombo should get more than 8 million a year. That is even a stretch for a guy who is a "defensive specialist", since he's not even that good on defense.

[jbk1234]

My first guess was 4/48. I find it curious that people have no problem with the notion that Kanter will get 4/40 but find the notion that Bismack could get more as shocking. I suspect there will be one team bidding on Kanter's services and many teams interested in Bismack. Asik is the second best defender on that list, he's underwhelmed since the Rockets signed Dwight, and he's no longer young. How many teams want a defensive presence on the interior?

Asik was pretty good this year, despite being banged up. Davis openly said how much having Asik, when they have both been healthy, has helped him. He can be more aggressive knowing that Asik is backing him up.

I think Kanter is a far better player than Biyombo. You play Biyombo and you play 4 on 5 on offense. He may be the worst offensive player in the league who plays regular minutes. Kanter is a very good offensive player, and he's passable on defense when paired with another good defender. That has been shown with OKC. He's been pretty good with Ibaka and Adams.

No way Biyombo should get more than 8 million a year. That is even a stretch for a guy who is a "defensive specialist", since he's not even that good on defense.

We disagree as to how good Biz is on the defensive end. Kanter is a younger version of Big Al. Since Ibaka got injured, he looks a lot like the old Kanter to me. How many teams have good defensive power forwards who can cover for his deficiencies on that end? How many teams were interested in him at the deadline? How many teams would have been interested in Biz if he had been put on the market?

[Smitty731]

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

[bondom34]

Also, for the record, I wouldn't sign Kanter but he is in the perfect situation for his skill set. The thunder can afford to pay him and they will. Remember they were trying to get Brook Lopez, who is also a poor defender and average rebounder. He's going to get at least the amount they were offering Reggie Jackson. I really am glad that we traded him. Having said that, he's the same age as Biyombo and is much bigger. Since joining the Thunder he is posting a PER of 23.1 and is averaging 16.5 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 1.4 apg shooting 56% from the field in 30 mpg and I think most Thunder fans would agree that he is helping more than hurting.

Yep. He's best fitted next to Ibaka, but even w/ Adams he seems to work well. Westbrook has fantastic chemistry w/ him already, and the defense can be semi-covered by Ibaka/Adams/Collison (though it isn't good). His offense is perfect w/ Russ, and he seems to love OKC. He's a much more willing passer and even played a bit injured today. Plus, a stat that blew my mind for the Westbrook chemistry:

In 54 games w/ Utah, Kanter got the most assisted buckets from Burke with 44.

In his first 13 games w/ OKC, his most were Russ, w/ 33.

I'd gladly give him 4/48, I'd be thrilled if that was all it took.

[Eoghan]

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

[bondom34]

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

Not disagreeing, but 4/$56?

[jbk1234]

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

Not disagreeing, but 4/$56?

I think it would take an offer of no less than $12 million per in order for the Hornets not to match.

[bondom34]

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

Not disagreeing, but 4/$56?

I think it would take an offer of no less than $12 million per in order for the Hornets not to match.

I'd be shocked if he got that, 4/32 seems a bit much to me.

[jbk1234]

Not disagreeing, but 4/$56?

I think it would take an offer of no less than $12 million per in order for the Hornets not to match.

I'd be shocked if he got that, 4/32 seems a bit much to me.

That's going to be a mid-level deal under the new cap. If the Cavs had $12 million in space, I'd offer it Biz and let TT walk.

[bondom34]

I think it would take an offer of no less than $12 million per in order for the Hornets not to match.

I'd be shocked if he got that, 4/32 seems a bit much to me.

That's going to be a mid-level deal under the new cap. If the Cavs had $12 million in space, I'd offer it Biz and let TT walk.

Wow, that's crazy to me. He's never proven anything in big minutes, he blocks shots, but his actual rim protection points saved numbers are neutral.

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

He's beyond limited offensively, I'd pay about 6 mil a year tops, and thats giving room for improvement.

[HawaiianJazzFan]

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

Which numbers?? Al Jefferson does have an awful ORPM but Bismack's actually worse somehow. Bismack is actually the worst rated big in ORPM on the Hornet's team. He's actually worse offensively and defensively than Al in RPM. Al's offensive rating isn't great at all either but Bismack is still somehow worse. If by some reason the Hornets score more points when Bismack is on the floor the numbers suggest it has nothing to do with Bismack.

[Cowology]

Don't forget Greg Monroe is an UFA and will also be competing for one of those contracts.

[nate33]

Omer Asik - 4yr $40M
Enes Kanter 4yr $50M (or perhaps $7.4M QO then UFA in 2016)
Brandan Wright 4yr $30M
Bismack Biyombo 4yr $40M
Tyson Chandler 3yr $40M
Robin Lopez 4yr $40M
Alexis Ajinca $3M/yr to full MLE
Kosta Koufos 4yr $30M
J.McGee vet min
Ed Davis room MLE or mini MLE

I think most of these guys will get paid more than this. The salary cap is jumping by roughly 50% in 2016. That means a relatively ho hum contract like Gortat's $12M a year deal will translate into an $18M a year contract. I realize that 2015 isn't 2016, but you can be damn sure that the agents won't view things that way. They're going to want deals proportional to the new CBA, not the current one.

So if Gortat is worth $18M a year at age 30, do you think Kanter is only getting $12M at age 23?

I'd say it'll look more like this:
Enes Kanter 4yr $66M (max deal)
Brandan Wright 4yr $44M
Bismack Biyombo 4yr $40M
Tyson Chandler 3yr $45M
Robin Lopez 4yr $52M
Alexis Ajinca 4yr $36M
Kosta Koufos 4yr $36M
J.McGee 1 yr vet minimum
Ed Davis 4 yr $36M

The only issue is that there may not be enough teams with cap room to offer so many above-MLE deals. I suspect that a few of those guys in that 4yr $36M range may end up signing 1-year full MLE deals and then hitting free agency in 2016 when the MLE will be 4 years $36M.

[winter_mute_13]

The only issue is that there may not be enough teams with cap room to offer so many above-MLE deals. I suspect that a few of those guys in that 4yr $36M range may end up signing 1-year full MLE deals and then hitting free agency in 2016 when the MLE will be 4 years $36M.

The MLE does not automatically go up with the cap. The MLE amount for 2016 is already fixed at a starting value of $5.628m. The earliest this could change is in 2017, when both players and teams can opt out of the CBA. Presumably in a new CBA, the MLE amount will be set higher.

Link: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

I do agree that a number of FAs might prefer to sign one year deals hoping to cash in with the cap going up, but I tend to think that these would be the high end players ($10m+) rather than the rest.

[Eoghan]

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

Not disagreeing, but 4/$56?

4/32 is more likely his floor than his ceiling IMO. I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of these teams that leans heavily on advanced stats throws a whopper at Biz.

If Kanter is a younger version of Jefferson, I'm ok with that. Jefferson has been one of the better offensive players at the PF/C spot in the league for years. Nothing wrong with being that. He's also carried a couple of questionable teams to the Playoffs. No one will ever write that about Biyombo. He'll never carry a team to the Playoffs on the strength of his ability to chase blocks, while being the worst offensive player in the league.

The only thing Al carries into the playoffs is high blood sugar. He is a king of empty stats and a loser. Biz is a much better player than you think and the numbers say he makes CHA a better offensive team than Al, by a lot.

Which numbers?? Al Jefferson does have an awful ORPM but Bismack's actually worse somehow. Bismack is actually the worst rated big in ORPM on the Hornet's team. He's actually worse offensively and defensively than Al in RPM. Al's offensive rating isn't great at all either but Bismack is still somehow worse. If by some reason the Hornets score more points when Bismack is on the floor the numbers suggest it has nothing to do with Bismack.

The on-court/off-court statistics for two players on Charlotte. Try and guess who the players are.

PLAYER A
Offense: on-court - 106.4 pts/100 possessions, off-court - 100.9 pts/100 possessions
Net offense: +5.5

Defense: on-court - 100.6 pts/100, off-court - 105.9 pts/100
Net defense: -5.3

Our offense scores 5.5 more points per 100 possessions while Player A is on the court and our defense allows 5.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court.

PLAYER B
Offense: on-court - 100.3 pts/100, off-court - 104.6 pts/100
Net offense: -4.4

Defense: on-court - 107.4 pts/100, off-court - 101.3 pts/1100
Net defense: +6.1

Charlotte's offense scores 4.4 fewer points per 100 possessions while Player B is on the court and Charlotte's defense allows 6.1 more points per 100 possession when he is on the court.

Answer:

Spoiler:

Player A = Biyombo; Player B = Jefferson.
When you combine the two ratings Biz is essentially +10.8 while Al is -10.5. Al also ranks 108 out of 116 qualified players in points produced per shot. Charlotte is also 10-4 with Biz as a starter this year (winning record with him starting last year too).

*post and numbers blatantly ripped off from a post by Braggins. I'm lazy.

[nate33]

The only issue is that there may not be enough teams with cap room to offer so many above-MLE deals. I suspect that a few of those guys in that 4yr $36M range may end up signing 1-year full MLE deals and then hitting free agency in 2016 when the MLE will be 4 years $36M.

The MLE does not automatically go up with the cap. The MLE amount for 2016 is already fixed at a starting value of $5.628m. The earliest this could change is in 2017, when both players and teams can opt out of the CBA. Presumably in a new CBA, the MLE amount will be set higher.

My bad. You are correct.

I suppose it doesn't really matter. Everybody is going to be under the cap in 2016 so there won't be any MLE contracts handed out that year. Those third tier big men will get $9M a year contracts straight out of teams' cap room.

[Prokorov]

Predict the contract :

Omer Asik
Enes Kanter
Brandan Wright
Bismack Biyombo
Tyson Chandler
Robin Lopez
Alexis Ajinca
Kosta Koufos
J.McGee
Ed Davis

Bismack will probably be the highest paid player on this list. Four years $48 million minimum. Probably closer to $56 million. Asik and Kanter will probably get around $32 million over four years. Chandler's money is going to depend on how many years he wants guaranteed. Robin Lopez and Koufus see $32 million over four years.

WAIT WHAT!!!????

What am I missing??

Bismack will get paid more than Kanter and Osik

You know you just said Biyombo will get paid more than Nikola Vucevic and not even the same but 8 mil more

Seriously though, care to explain why you think this?

what vucevic makes is kind of irrelevant, since if he was a UFA he would see a ton more the he is currently making. he would get brook lopez money in FA right now

Bismack is defintely going to be the top paid of not top 2 paid from that list. 4/44-4/50 sounds about right given an increasing cap