ImageImageImageImageImage

Castro is a SP or RP... long term

Moderator: JaysRule15

North_of_Border
Pro Prospect
Posts: 910
And1: 369
Joined: May 18, 2014
   

Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#1 » by North_of_Border » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:32 pm

Miguel Castro

he is dominant out of the pen. But if u look at last season and the winter league he is a dominant SP at those levels too.

However, JAYS wont possibly have enough room for all the young SP that are coming on at the same time. Should they keep him a bullpen ace or give him a shot at a mid rotation spot in the future?

relievers are usually failed starters..... throwing a guy straight to there with Castro's stuff seems like a waste.... but there might not be much room in the rotation even next season... or later

never the less, we cant argue that in 2015 he should be a reliever.... future is the question.
akakalakin
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,745
And1: 248
Joined: Jul 07, 2010

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#2 » by akakalakin » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:46 pm

let him compete with Cecil for closer 50-60 innings, bet he wins the spot
User avatar
Schad
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 58,434
And1: 17,967
Joined: Feb 08, 2006
Location: The Goat Rodeo
     

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#3 » by Schad » Sun Mar 22, 2015 8:51 pm

We have a lot of great young pitchers now, but the odds of all of them making it (and more importantly, remaining healthy) are next to zero. Thus, he should remain a starter until something prevents him from being a starter...none of the typical concerns that push guys into the 'pen are there with Castro.
Image
**** your asterisk.
dagger
RealGM
Posts: 41,306
And1: 14,332
Joined: Aug 19, 2002
         

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#4 » by dagger » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:23 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:We have a lot of great young pitchers now, but the odds of all of them making it (and more importantly, remaining healthy) are next to zero. Thus, he should remain a starter until something prevents him from being a starter...none of the typical concerns that push guys into the 'pen are there with Castro.


I agree, with an innings limit, he should start. His stuff is varied enough, and Martin is going to get the most out of him.
2019 will never be forgotten because FLAGS FLY FOREVER
Tyrone Slothrop
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,540
And1: 2,203
Joined: Nov 18, 2010
         

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#5 » by Tyrone Slothrop » Sun Mar 22, 2015 9:46 pm

akakalakin wrote:let him compete with Cecil for closer 50-60 innings, bet he wins the spot


As pointed out in the Spring Training thread, I think having him pitch 80-90 innings to stretch him out would be much more beneficial to the Jays, both short and long term.
User avatar
There There
Veteran
Posts: 2,613
And1: 201
Joined: Dec 04, 2008
     

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#6 » by There There » Mon Mar 23, 2015 3:31 am

dagger wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:We have a lot of great young pitchers now, but the odds of all of them making it (and more importantly, remaining healthy) are next to zero. Thus, he should remain a starter until something prevents him from being a starter...none of the typical concerns that push guys into the 'pen are there with Castro.


I agree, with an innings limit, he should start. His stuff is varied enough, and Martin is going to get the most out of him.


I'm pretty sure Schad meant that he should be starting in Dunedin, or possibly New Hampshire if you want to get really aggressive with him.

Let him develop, control his innings and call him up to help out the pen in August/September if the team is in a race.
User avatar
bluerap23
Head Coach
Posts: 7,062
And1: 7,228
Joined: Aug 15, 2012
   

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#7 » by bluerap23 » Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:17 pm

Looks like he is winning a spot in the bp for this year.
Lots of success stories have started in the bp (wells, key) so it really isn't an issue converting him to a starter in the future.

Our future depth at SP is looking incredible.
In 2 years we will have 7 quality mlb-ready SP under control for multiple seasons.

Stroman
Sanchez
Norris
Hutch
Castro
Osuna
Hoffman

Even if we have 2 injuries/under-performers we are in good shape.
Image
User avatar
Schad
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 58,434
And1: 17,967
Joined: Feb 08, 2006
Location: The Goat Rodeo
     

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#8 » by Schad » Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:11 am

bluerap23 wrote:Looks like he is winning a spot in the bp for this year.
Lots of success stories have started in the bp (wells, key) so it really isn't an issue converting him to a starter in the future.

Our future depth at SP is looking incredible.
In 2 years we will have 7 quality mlb-ready SP under control for multiple seasons.

Stroman
Sanchez
Norris
Hutch
Castro
Osuna
Hoffman

Even if we have 2 injuries/under-performers we are in good shape.


Wells came up as a 24 year old with about 500 innings of professional ball to his name. Key had a shade under 200, but he was also a college draftee, and his year as a reliever came at 23.

There really aren't many pitchers who've taken the route we're proposing for Castro here...an insanely young IFA/high school kiddie rushed to the majors as a reliever (for more than just a late-season cup of coffee), then converted back to starting successfully. Actually, I'm struggling to name any in recent years; Jose Rijo was the only one I could think of off the top of my head, but a quick look at Baseball Reference suggests that took five years (and two trades) before he really clicked as a starter.
Image
**** your asterisk.
Michael Bradley
General Manager
Posts: 9,440
And1: 2,138
Joined: Feb 25, 2004

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#9 » by Michael Bradley » Tue Mar 24, 2015 1:22 am

I don't think Castro's conversion to a starter in 2016 will go all that well to be honest (if he spends the entire 2015 season in the pen). That's such a hard transition to make due to the increased workload, and since Castro's arm lacks IP to begin with, it's a recipe for disaster.

Unfortunately, the best case scenario for Castro as a long-term asset (if he makes the team out of ST) is if he struggles badly in April and is sent down to be stretched out again. They would burn an option but at least he'd get a decent amount of IP in the minors and possibly be ready to be a big league rotation option in 2016. If he's a reliever the entire season, and has success, then like I said before, it wouldn't surprise me if he stays in that role indefinitely.

I really worry about this team if the intention is to go with all young pitchers in 2016-beyond. They need reliable innings eaters, which they will lose with Buehrle leaving after 2015, and then Dickey either after 2015 (if they decline his option) or 2016. I can see Hutch developing into an innings eater, assuming he stays healthy, but I'm not confident that Sanchez and Norris will, at least not right away, and Stroman has to prove he's back with the ACL issue. Outside of that, young pitching is so volatile that it's pointless to guess what the rotation will look like a year or two from now.
User avatar
Kurtz
RealGM
Posts: 15,565
And1: 16,481
Joined: Aug 07, 2002
Location: Toronto

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#10 » by Kurtz » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:08 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
bluerap23 wrote:Looks like he is winning a spot in the bp for this year.
Lots of success stories have started in the bp (wells, key) so it really isn't an issue converting him to a starter in the future.

Our future depth at SP is looking incredible.
In 2 years we will have 7 quality mlb-ready SP under control for multiple seasons.

Stroman
Sanchez
Norris
Hutch
Castro
Osuna
Hoffman

Even if we have 2 injuries/under-performers we are in good shape.


Wells came up as a 24 year old with about 500 innings of professional ball to his name. Key had a shade under 200, but he was also a college draftee, and his year as a reliever came at 23.

There really aren't many pitchers who've taken the route we're proposing for Castro here...an insanely young IFA/high school kiddie rushed to the majors as a reliever (for more than just a late-season cup of coffee), then converted back to starting successfully. Actually, I'm struggling to name any in recent years; Jose Rijo was the only one I could think of off the top of my head, but a quick look at Baseball Reference suggests that took five years (and two trades) before he really clicked as a starter.


Morrow, Sale immediately come to mind.
Image
User avatar
Schad
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 58,434
And1: 17,967
Joined: Feb 08, 2006
Location: The Goat Rodeo
     

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#11 » by Schad » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:53 am

Kurtz wrote:Morrow, Sale immediately come to mind.


Sale for youth, sure, but he was an absurdly well-polished three-year college pitcher, and the only thing keeping him from starting in his first full season (and going at the very top of the draft, for that matter) was the belief that his delivery necessitated deploying him in relief. I don't think that the national college pitcher of the year is really a comp for a kid with as little high-level experience as Castro; he could and probably should have been starting from day one.

As for Morrow, I'm not sure that he's a positive on that particular ledger. Might've been if not for injuries (and his diabetes, which was a significant factor early in his career), but after his debut season Seattle shuttled him back and forth to Tacoma in his second season, caught between a guy who was an effective reliever and an ineffective starter. And while he has had flashes, their handling of him doesn't strike me as something we should be aspiring to...three years into his big league career they had no idea what was there, resulting in them giving up on a guy they drafted 5th overall in a decent draft for pitching (7th pick, Kershaw; 10th pick, Lincecum; 11th pick, Scherzer) for relief help.
Image
**** your asterisk.
User avatar
Kurtz
RealGM
Posts: 15,565
And1: 16,481
Joined: Aug 07, 2002
Location: Toronto

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#12 » by Kurtz » Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:08 am

Fair points, I was just pointing out that sticking a young pitcher in BP for a year (or 3, in Morrow's case) doesn't necessarily preclude him from transitioning to a starter 1-2 years later.
Image
User avatar
bluerap23
Head Coach
Posts: 7,062
And1: 7,228
Joined: Aug 15, 2012
   

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#13 » by bluerap23 » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:40 pm

I think you also have to consider that we likely won't have room for him in the rotation for the next couple years. If a guy looks ready to contribute now, do you keep him in the minors to develop him for a roll that you may not be able to offer him in the foreseeable future?
Image
User avatar
satyr9
Assistant Coach
Posts: 3,892
And1: 563
Joined: Aug 09, 2006
     

Re: Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#14 » by satyr9 » Tue Mar 24, 2015 2:42 pm

Kurtz wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:
bluerap23 wrote:Looks like he is winning a spot in the bp for this year.
Lots of success stories have started in the bp (wells, key) so it really isn't an issue converting him to a starter in the future.

Our future depth at SP is looking incredible.
In 2 years we will have 7 quality mlb-ready SP under control for multiple seasons.

Stroman
Sanchez
Norris
Hutch
Castro
Osuna
Hoffman

Even if we have 2 injuries/under-performers we are in good shape.


Wells came up as a 24 year old with about 500 innings of professional ball to his name. Key had a shade under 200, but he was also a college draftee, and his year as a reliever came at 23.

There really aren't many pitchers who've taken the route we're proposing for Castro here...an insanely young IFA/high school kiddie rushed to the majors as a reliever (for more than just a late-season cup of coffee), then converted back to starting successfully. Actually, I'm struggling to name any in recent years; Jose Rijo was the only one I could think of off the top of my head, but a quick look at Baseball Reference suggests that took five years (and two trades) before he really clicked as a starter.


Morrow, Sale immediately come to mind.


Both were college starters, played cape cod, had years of extra experience at a higher level. And neither one is exactly having trouble-free careers as far as their arms and durability go.

All that being said, while I am vehemently against bringing him under any circumstances, prospect development is a ridiculous crap shoot. Taking him straight from camp
isn't a death knell. Its certainly unconventional and appears to be motivated by factors other than what's in the best interests of Castro the prospect, but its not quite as dire a calamity as all that.
User avatar
bluerap23
Head Coach
Posts: 7,062
And1: 7,228
Joined: Aug 15, 2012
   

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#15 » by bluerap23 » Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:12 pm

Was trying to think of other guys that have come to the major leagues with little to no minor league experience. Obvious example is Doc Gooden who struck out 260 batter when he was 19.

Then did a google search and found this guy John Montgomery "Monte" Ward. Dude pitched almost 600 innings per year and on off days played in the field! Pitched an 18 inning shutout!

From wikipedia
Ward's first season with the Grays was a successful one, going 22–13 with a 1.51 ERA. He played that season exclusively as a pitcher, but during the following two seasons he played increasingly in the outfield and at third base.[2] Ward had his two finest seasons as a pitcher, going 47–19 with 239 strikeouts and a 2.15 ERA in 1879 and 39–24 with 230 strikeouts and a 1.74 ERA in 1880. He pitched nearly 600 innings each year (587.0 in 1879 and 595.0 in 1880).[2] As a 19 year old pitcher, he won 47 games and led the 1879 Providence Grays to a first place finish.[6]

In 1880, he began to play other positions. On June 17, 1880, Ward pitched the second perfect game in baseball history, defeating future Hall of Famer Pud Galvin and the Buffalo Bisons, 5–0.[3] Lee Richmond had thrown baseball's first perfect game just five days before, on June 12. The next perfect game by a National League pitcher would not happen for 84 years, when Jim Bunning pitched a perfect game in 1964.[7] Ward also expanded his leadership role to include managing when he became a player-manager for the team's final 32 games, winning 18 of them, as the Grays finished in second place.[1][4]

The seasons of 1881 and 1882 were the first in which he played more games in the outfield than he pitched. This was due to a nagging arm injury he originally incurred sliding into a base.[3] He still pitched well when he did pitch, winning 37 games over those two seasons and having ERAs of 2.13 and 2.59 respectively,[2] and on August 17, 1882, he pitched the longest complete game shutout in history, blanking the Detroit Wolverines 1–0 in 18 innings.[3] By this time, however, the Grays felt his best days were behind him and sold their former ace hurler to the New York Giants.
Image
User avatar
CrookedJ
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,138
And1: 2,764
Joined: Dec 04, 2007
Location: Waterloo
   

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#16 » by CrookedJ » Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:56 pm

Andrew Stoeten weighs in on the matter. He seems OK with it....

http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/03/24/it- ... then-what/

What that means, though, is that the Jays’ eagerness to have Castro in the bullpen this year miiiiiiight indicate he’s not going jump straight to the rotation next year and start dominating guys over six and seven innings a start like we’ve seen for, y’know, nine innings in Spring Training — and might actually indicate they agree with those who think his future is more likely in relief. As in: as a ridiculously good, lock-down, late-inning reliever.

That’ll play! And I think we all entirely understand why they’re doing it. What they might not be doing, though, is giving him every possible opportunity to develop as a starter right now. Part of that is self preservation, of course. Part of it is feeling OK about the fact that they — or whoever is in charge at the time — can figure it out down the road. And part of it too, I’d suspect, is that they maybe don’t quite see him as the little miracle that some fans have started to allow themselves to.
User avatar
Schad
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 58,434
And1: 17,967
Joined: Feb 08, 2006
Location: The Goat Rodeo
     

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#17 » by Schad » Tue Mar 24, 2015 9:23 pm

"The Jays maybe kinda think his future is in relief" is probably the worst reason to be okay with it, because he's freaking 20, hasn't pitched any significant innings total in full season, and he's freaking 20. Absent massive failure or a serious delivery flaw, that's not the sort of determination you should ever be making so early in a pitcher's career. No talent evaluator should ever be so confident in their abilities as to make that call that early on so little data, because no talent evaluator is Nostradamus.
Image
**** your asterisk.
Michael Bradley
General Manager
Posts: 9,440
And1: 2,138
Joined: Feb 25, 2004

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#18 » by Michael Bradley » Wed Mar 25, 2015 12:48 am

I don't think anyone trying to justify this move actually agrees with it. They are just trying to spin some type of positive out of it. In the case of the media, they are just trying to make it fit AA's narrative. If they view Castro as a reliever long-term, that's fine, but you don't concede that at age 20 when his IP high is 80 IP in low-A. I can't see a single (good) GM doing what the Jays are doing with Castro. If he had a bit more pro experience, then maybe, but even that would be pushing it.

It's better to just accept that it's a terrible move and hope for the best. Trying to rationalize it doesn't make it look better. Let's just hope he turns into Betances right away and the Jays make the playoffs because of it. I don't know. That's all we can really do at this point.
User avatar
hyper316
RealGM
Posts: 14,747
And1: 10,032
Joined: Dec 23, 2006
   

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#19 » by hyper316 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:09 am

I can see why AA is trying to save his job at the expense of properly developing players. He's a desperate man with no budget to work with
User avatar
bluerap23
Head Coach
Posts: 7,062
And1: 7,228
Joined: Aug 15, 2012
   

Re: Castro is a SP or RP... long term 

Post#20 » by bluerap23 » Thu Mar 26, 2015 3:28 am

hyper316 wrote:I can see why AA is trying to save his job at the expense of properly developing players. He's a desperate man with no budget to work with


I don't know. If this blows up in his face it may hurt AA's chances to resign.

Personally I think he has earned an extension. We are starting to see the results of his solid drafting and he has done an excellent job this offseason with talent acquisition at little cost.

If they let Buerhle, Estrada and Navarro go next year their payroll is going to have a lot of room without that many holes to fill.
Image

Return to Toronto Blue Jays