Small Forward: Not The Biggest Need?

[whitehops]

I know a popular opinion here that getting a 'starting' small forward is our biggest need to address this offseason and something we should use valuable resources on (top-10 pick, high-price free agent).

I think i'd like to counter by saying that while it wouldn't be surprising if they did address that hole I suggest we not be upset if they didn't make it priority number one this offseason. *disclaimers: this is under the assumption we keep Jennings and that SVG feels comfortable playing two of Jennings/Jackson/Dinwiddie together at the same time for stretches.*

in the month of march, to date, KCP has played 29% of his minutes at small forward with Jodie meeks being the SG. this is partly due to a Monroe getting injured, but the results have been positive. of the top 10 5-man lineups including KCP for the month of march, in terms of minutes played, there have been 195 minutes with him at SG and 75 with him at SG. the lineups where KCP is lined up at SF are +14 while the lineups with him at SG are +7. this in itself doesn't say much but I think shows that KCP at SF isn't a liability.

next year we will potentially have a large number of guards that are too talented to play little minutes. Jackson, KCP and Jennings (when healthy) all should be playing 30 minutes a game. meeks should be good for 25 and Dinwiddie is looking like he can handle more minutes going forward, certainly after an offseason of putting in work after missing last offseason due to injury. i'm personally predicting 18-20. that is potentially 135 minutes for two positions (96 minutes). that 39 minute surplus is a huge amount of time to bench talented players. in theory, KCP could play all 30 of his minutes at small forward and we would still have enough talent at the guard positions to have them covered. my main point in this paragraph is that, if SVG feels comfortable playing two of Jennings/Jackson/Dinwiddie together at the same time for stretches, that we have more than enough talent at guard to make it feasible to play KCP at small forward for extended periods.

my main point, overall, is that if/when moose leaves I think filling our stretch-4 and backup C hole is more important for next year than necessarily finding a 'starting' small forward. prince has been a small forward/stretch-4 for us and tolliver has been our main stretch-4 while moose has been out. we've had joel Anthony as our backup center. tolliver/prince/joel are adequate in the sense that they fit our scheme but they could definitely be replaced by more talented players. SVG's system is dependent on spacing and that is most imperative out of the power forward; it's also the hardest to find. I think karl towns would be the best solution as he could do what moose did but much better for us, but obviously that would be far from guaranteed to happen. free agency is pretty scarce for these types of candidates as well, so this may not be entirely feasible.


TL;DR?
assuming we keep Jennings and lose Monroe/prince, we will have a TON of potential depth from 1-3 (with KCP playing more minutes at SF) and be pretty barren for bigs. drummond is drummond, tolliver is a decent backup at PF for us and joel is good defensively but could easily be upgraded. shawne Williams has yet to show he can contribute much at all and won't likely contribute next year either. that leaves us with 3 bigs, and two of them none too pretty as options. ideally a starting-calibre PF that can stretch the floor and also slide to center in a pinch should be priority #1 in my books.

[mercury]

You have a good point about priorities... we should be able to address three positions with our assets (pick, FA $s, trade a PG)... the order of events should be 1)draft (BPA), 2)FA, 3)trades...
The draft choice should trigger the decision on the next sequence.

[Warspite]

With cap space for 2 max players and a lottery pick I would hope that we could address all our needs.

[DocRI]

I posted something similar recently about us going with a three guard lineup, only it was under the "what if?" scenario that we moved up in the lottery and wound up drafting Russell. So, in short, the only difference I see in our opinions is about our belief (or, in my opinion, disbelief) in Jennings. IMHO, Jennings and Jackson together would be disastrous because neither is a knock-down shooter; with a three-guard lineup of Jackson / Russell / KCP, we'd have two facilitators (Jackson and Russell) and two shooters (Russell and KCP) on the floor at the same time, so I think that combination has a much greater chance of success.

In short, I have ZERO problem with taking either Towns or Russell if we move up in the lotto because they are, simply put, the best players on the board and also can fit with the young talent we already have. But if we're keeping Jackson (and all signs point that we are), I just don't think Jennings belongs in our long term plans. I'm cool with moving KCP to SF, but not to accommodate Jackson and Jennings together.

[tmorgan]

The biggest issue is going to be guard defense. KCP can defend the 2 or 3 adequately, I think, except against stronger threes. Dinwiddie looks like a competent and improving defender against 1's or 2's, and should get even better.

The problem is Jackson and Jennings. Jennings certainly can't defend any position but the 1, because he's a skinny guy. He can try all he wants (and it seems like the effort really got better), but he's still vulnerable to screens and post-ups and there's nothing he can do about it. If RJ and Jennings play significant minutes together, RJ has to guard the 2, and while he's reasonably strong, he's definitely small and doesn't seem to have the best defensive instincts. I believe SVG can improve Jackson's team defense skills, but there's no possible way to make Jennings with Jackson an acceptable defensive back court overall.

I'll add: we'd need awesome paint protection to pull it off. Drummond could provide some of it, but certainly isn't there yet. We definitely don't have the 4 we need on the roster in this scheme.

[epheisey]

If Monroe leaves, our biggest priority will be repairing the front court. Drummond can't do it all on his own. He'll need a reliable backup, and a very good PF alongside of him.

SF is simply the easiest position to fill IMO, that's why it gets the most attention.

[joedumars1]

If Monroe leaves, our biggest priority will be repairing the front court. Drummond can't do it all on his own. He'll need a reliable backup, and a very good PF alongside of him.

SF is simply the easiest position to fill IMO, that's why it gets the most attention.

SF is becoming the most coveted position, like big man used to be. Lebron, Melo, Kawhi, P. George, Durant, them are the stars atm

Then you have Wiggins (probably going to be a star) Giannis( probably going to be a star), Batum, Gallo, Iguolada, Gay, Hayward, Deng, Ariza ect.

I would love to be able to get a Batum, Ariza or a rookie Tay type of SF it would a help alot

I love Moose and used to argue with alot of people about keeping him, but two bigs and both can't shoot isn't how the NBA is ran anymore. We need a PF that can shoot, hopefully defend too.

[sc8581]

I think SF will be a much easier hole to fill than PF. Joel Anthony is a very serviceable backup for Drummond, I expect SVG to make s strong attempt to bring him back and Tolliver probably as well. This basically only leaves us with 2 holes to fill in the entire rotation, starting forwards. There are going to be a lot SF options in the draft and free agency as well, PFs that can shoot, not so much. So to me it's clear cut that the 4 is our biggest hole to fill this summer and as I've mentioned before, I would be more than happy to have a guy like Brandon Bass man that spot for a couple years as long as we get a SF that can hit open shots consistently.

[tmorgan]

We need OKC to completely fall apart... Westbrook can bolt to LA, Durant to WAS, and we snag Ibaka.

[whitehops]

The biggest issue is going to be guard defense. KCP can defend the 2 or 3 adequately, I think, except against stronger threes. Dinwiddie looks like a competent and improving defender against 1's or 2's, and should get even better.

The problem is Jackson and Jennings. Jennings certainly can't defend any position but the 1, because he's a skinny guy. He can try all he wants (and it seems like the effort really got better), but he's still vulnerable to screens and post-ups and there's nothing he can do about it. If RJ and Jennings play significant minutes together, RJ has to guard the 2, and while he's reasonably strong, he's definitely small and doesn't seem to have the best defensive instincts. I believe SVG can improve Jackson's team defense skills, but there's no possible way to make Jennings with Jackson an acceptable defensive back court overall.

I'll add: we'd need awesome paint protection to pull it off. Drummond could provide some of it, but certainly isn't there yet. We definitely don't have the 4 we need on the roster in this scheme.

I've given a little thought as to how they would work together, and I think it might be possible. Jennings would have to guard the opponent's quickest/smallest player, and honestly if meeks can 'guard' SG's (which he does, every game), then Jackson definitely could. they both weigh the same, and meeks is 6'4 with a 6'5 wingspan. Jackson is 6'3 with a 7'0 wingspan. I think a SG rotation of meeks, Dinwiddie and Jackson would work most of the time and then you could slide KCP back to the 2 to counter any big mismatches.

offensively I think Jackson would be the primary ball-handler because he is better penetrating off the PnR and Jennings is easily the better shooter to space out the wings. it's not like Jennings would be relegated to just being a spot-up shooter, as he would have enough chance to handle the ball as well in this setup.

my only doubt that any of this would happen is that SVG all year has almost exclusively kept only one point guard on the floor. almost all of KCP's minutes at SF have had meeks at SG and someone at PG, instead of Jackson-Dinwiddie together or something like that. that may be in part to circumstance (beginning of the year Dinwiddie wasn't ready and Jennings/DJ are tiny, etc.) though it doesn't make a two-PG lineup very easy to predict. I will say this - if SVG doesn't feel comfortable playing two PG's at once then I think Jennings will definitely be traded.

[Cowology]

Just shows how terrible we are at SF, not how good KCP is at that position. I've been an advocate for smallball all year and predicted we'd see more of it after the trade due to our deficit at the position, but that doesn't make SF any less of a need.

You are kinda making the stats show what you want them too. What I see is that we are better with KCP and another shooter despite having to go small. To me this means the complete opposite, which is that it's even more critical we fill the SF void. If we are so bad there we improve by playing out of position to fill needs, imagin the impact of having a legit player at the position while allowing KCP to stay at his natural position!

And yes, we should be able to fill both forward positions... But if it were to be one All-Star and one solid starter I'd take the All-star SF and the stretch 4.

[vic]

SF can be filled easily in the draft...

PF I say wait until Monroe leaves, if he does try to snag Tobias, Ed Davis, or maybe even Paul Millsap to be the "veterAn leader"... or a rookie like Porzingis or Portis on a sign &trade.

The Millsap idea sounds good because SVG can throw big money at him, give him a big role both in the locker room and on the court, and sell him on the chance to make them an immediate contender.

I think Joel Anthony does fine as Dres backup... But I think Ed Davis could be a nice young post big to help out too.

[whitehops]

Just shows how terrible we are at SF, not how good KCP is at that position. I've been an advocate for smallball all year and predicted we'd see more of it after the trade due to our deficit at the position, but that doesn't make SF any less of a need.

You are kinda making the stats show what you want them too. What I see is that we are better with KCP and another shooter despite having to go small. To me this means the complete opposite, which is that it's even more critical we fill the SF void. If we are so bad there we improve by playing out of position to fill needs, imagin the impact of having a legit player at the position while allowing KCP to stay at his natural position!

And yes, we should be able to fill both forward positions... But if it were to be one All-Star and one solid starter I'd take the All-star SF and the stretch 4.

I wasn't trying to use stats for any reason other than to show we haven't gotten crushed while KCP has played SF.

if we get a starting small forward that can play ~30 minutes a game, what do you propose our depth chart would look like next year, including their minutes played?

[ImHeisenberg]

I think expectations are running high for this off-season. People expect Detroit to be able to upgrade the team all over the place. That is not as easy as NBA 2K would have you believe.

KCP can play some small forward, but if you're looking at the end game- competing for a title- he can't be the answer there. This team will eventually need a legitimate small forward that is at least considered to be in that second tier of players. That doesn't mean it has to happen this summer, but it's going to need to happen at some point.

With Moose most likely gone, the PF position is definitely going to be the team's biggest need. Especially with as limited as Drummond is, finding an ideal fit will be difficult. They will need someone who can stretch the floor and also provide defense. Those types of players aren't plentiful, and don't come cheap.

I'm sure SVG will look at Porzingis, Looney and Kaminsky during the draft process. But, none of them look like guys that you can instantly plug in and fill the starters position.

[theBigLip]

I think expectations are running high for this off-season. People expect Detroit to be able to upgrade the team all over the place. That is not as easy as NBA 2K would have you believe.

KCP can play some small forward, but if you're looking at the end game- competing for a title- he can't be the answer there. This team will eventually need a legitimate small forward that is at least considered to be in that second tier of players. That doesn't mean it has to happen this summer, but it's going to need to happen at some point.

With Moose most likely gone, the PF position is definitely going to be the team's biggest need. Especially with as limited as Drummond is, finding an ideal fit will be difficult. They will need someone who can stretch the floor and also provide defense. Those types of players aren't plentiful, and don't come cheap.

I'm sure SVG will look at Porzingis, Looney and Kaminsky during the draft process. But, none of them look like guys that you can instantly plug in and fill the starters position.

Good points. We may "want" a lot of free agents, but that doesn't mean we will get them.

And I don't want to just get by - I want to be an elite team. I don't think KCP is a starting SF on an elite team, but maybe the starting SG. We certainly need a quality SF - the draft looks like a good place to get one, but it will take a year or two for them to get up to speed.

[Cowology]

We've been bad for a long time and already have a number of young guys. We know Gores wants to win now and there is some incentive to put quality around Drummond now so he doesn't go the way of Monroe and want out.

We need to start building a winning culture and show some real upside. Can we afford to draft a starter and wait for them to catch up?

I don't usually lean this way, but given the specifics of our circumstance I'd seriously look at trading the pick.

Not talking a Joe D panic move here. Gotta be young enough to stay with the core, hopefully a guy getting ready to break out etc. no real clue who that is... But we can't rebuild forever.

[joedumars1]

We've been bad for a long time and already have a number of young guys. We know Gores wants to win now and there is some incentive to put quality around Drummond now so he doesn't go the way of Monroe and want out.

We need to start building a winning culture and show some real upside. Can we afford to draft a starter and wait for them to catch up?

I don't usually lean this way, but given the specifics of our circumstance I'd seriously look at trading the pick.

Not talking a Joe D panic move here. Gotta be young enough to stay with the core, hopefully a guy getting ready to break out etc. no real clue who that is... But we can't rebuild forever.

I see us making playoffs next year, if we trade our pick or not

[kurtis48239]

I wouldnt want to see kcp at sf unless its when we go small or small stretchs at a time.Now that we are winning games it looks like we are going to end up 9,which will still have plenty of sf with high ceilings.We really need to see where we fall in this draft befor we can start pieceing together what we do next year,also weather moose leaves or if stan wants to even keep him,he might have a whole different team setup in his mind.I recently said sf is the biggest whole,but when looking at it in terms of next year and if mooose leaves,then pf would become the biggest hole not as easily filled compared to sf,which have alot of good options in the draft and fa.

[Snakebites]

I don't know about all of this rotational stuff that you're talking about and I'm not willing to base ANYTHING on any assumption about keeping Jennings or Jennings being healthy, nor about being able to play those 2 together.

With that said, I think small forward is a less pressing need because its relatively easy to fill it via trade or even free agency. If we can get a good stretch 4 in the draft or a reliable shooting guard I'd take that over a small forward in a heartbeat unless a small forward is BPA.

[pistontr]

paul milsap and a 3D SF. Dream senario.