Okafor or Towns? Which center is the better pick?

[freelancegenius]

I like to take an organic, holistic approach to evaluating talent, especially college talent, instead of artificial “crutches” such as stats, advanced stats, physical measurements, etc. Like Kobe said, you can make stats do whatever you want them to, including making you look an idiot. Freshman college players, like people, are constantly evolving, so it’s far more informative to look at tendencies, or to put it existentially – the forest, not the trees. Using stats may be more informative if a player is already a finished product and halfway through their NBA career (what you see is what you get), but when projecting 19 yo’s, they’re barely more than a glimpse into someone’s potential.

Since I consider myself an informed “consumer”, someone that actually PLAYED basketball at a fairly high level, someone that’s met players, been tutored by college coaches, been to dozens of pro games, etc, I think it’s far more important to take a player in as a whole than try and dissect his game at the microscopic level; to try and capture his general essence rather than pontificate based on assumptions with no experience to back them up. Some eyes deceive…mine don’t.

Okafor’s problems are all effort based, and that doesn’t bode well for his career. You can fix some things – even Ason Kidd managed to add that J (to some degree). But you really can’t fix lazy, or slow, or low IQ. He reminds me of Eddy Curry in that way – very heartened to get involved in the offense, but listless and overtly cautious and uninterested on defense. That wouldn’t be SO bad if he dominated the glass ala Moses Malone; problem is he DOESN’T. I don’t care about TRB %, I tell you what I SEE.

To put it in perspective, Frank Kaminsky boxes out far better than Jahlil, and Frank is a tweener stretch big who will probably be lucky to average 6 boards off the bench at the next level. Jahlil doesn’t rebound or even ATTEMPT to rebound outside the cylinder, he lets guards attack the paint with abandon, and he’s not an intimidator. If your 7 footer doesn’t intimidate smalls, that’s bad.

As a side note, to further prove what I mean by an organic approach – how do you quantify intimidation? You could use blocks or block % or FG% at the rim vs., but Manute Bol blocked a SH*TLOAD of shots, and yet that didn’t stop people from consistently trying to jam it through his teeth. You can’t quantify intimidation, you can try, but it’s better to have felt it yourself in real life, on either side of the fence. Manute may have intimidated a LITTLE bit, but his presence was NEVER as intimidating as Shaq, for example, despite Manute blocking far more shots per game. Intimidation is impressing fear onto others, and “computer models” can’t qualify that, since they can’t experience it. What they miss is often the shots that AREN’T attempted due to that intimidation…Russell understood that better than most.

At any rate, Okafor needs to shed some baby fat, get better conditioning, and perhaps that will help motivate him or energize him more on defense, but I doubt it. I don’t think he’ll be a TERRIBLE defender ala Curry, but his body language to me screams “I don’t care that much”. Again, you can’t quantify body language, you can only interpret it at a human level.

Towns to me reminds me quite a bit of Al Horford, if Al was 3 inches taller. That will prove to be VERY valuable on the next level, just don’t expect Karl to ever be the focal point of an offense. He’s gangly and a bit naturally awkward on offense, almost like Dikembe was. What I like is that he hits his free throws (can’t stress that enough), can move his feet, DOES try to intimidate inside, is a good kid (Gatorade Student Athlete of the Year), and does a little bit of everything well. Btw, as far as that whole “foul” argument goes, I’d MUCH rather have a player who puts TOO MUCH effort on defense than someone whose just going through the motions and avoids contact for the sake of staying in the game. Fouling less comes with experience and age, unless youre a complete low IQ knucklehead like McGee, which Towns most certainly is not.

I don’t really project either player to necessarily make the HOF, but both will be All-Star bigs in a relatively weak big era.

If I had to project Okafor in the NBA, look at Eddy Curry at his peak, only with a higher capacity for passing out of the double team, slightly less obtuse defense (Curry wasn’t just unaware, he didn’t care at ALL), and consistently in better shape.

If I had to project Towns, I’d look at a mix between Andrew Bynum and Al Horford. Maybe someone similar to Joakim Noah. Bynums body type, above average athleticism for a 7 footer, and shot-blocking prowess, with Al’s mid-jumper range, ability to guard 4’s and 5’s, and Noah's awareness from the mid-high post to orchestrate the offense seamlessly at times.

[Bknight4three]

Seriously? So ft% is the determining factor? So obviously you would've passed on Shaq and drafted Zo instead.

Really? I have watched both players a lot and think they are basically dead even. So yes, if Okafor shot 75% from the FT line that would be a "determining factor" for me. That doesn't mean I would have passed on Shaq for Zo. Come on.

There is a twenty page thread with people disagreeing about who is the better player. People were breaking down everything-- even college defensive efficiency numbers and other cloudy stats, so I was surprised that nobody had brought up the fact that Towns could be the best FT shooting center in the NBA while Okafor's unbelievable post skill could be compromised down the stretch of games because he can't make free throws. We are talking about equal prospects here. Something has to be the "determining factor" for why you pick one guy over the other.

Whoever thinks they're equal prospects or that they're dead even is being subjective. So let me be subjective for a moment.. they're not dead even.

And more to the point his form is fine.. his trajectory isn't. He was taking too long with his routine and now it's been shortened and since then he's 5 for 8. Not a big sample size but still there appears to be an improvement. He's not going to be Shaq or Dwight at the line because his form isn't anywhere near that bad. His free throw shooting is a non-issue.. sorry it just is.

Riiiiight. Because stating that his free throw shooting is a non-issue is being objective. He may end up figuring it out because he is still very young, but you can't say that it is a non-issue as a matter-of-fact. His form isn't broken but it isn't good either. 50% is very bad and there have been times that he has looked puzzled and uncomfortable at the line.

[ibraheim718]

Really? I have watched both players a lot and think they are basically dead even. So yes, if Okafor shot 75% from the FT line that would be a "determining factor" for me. That doesn't mean I would have passed on Shaq for Zo. Come on.

There is a twenty page thread with people disagreeing about who is the better player. People were breaking down everything-- even college defensive efficiency numbers and other cloudy stats, so I was surprised that nobody had brought up the fact that Towns could be the best FT shooting center in the NBA while Okafor's unbelievable post skill could be compromised down the stretch of games because he can't make free throws. We are talking about equal prospects here. Something has to be the "determining factor" for why you pick one guy over the other.

Whoever thinks they're equal prospects or that they're dead even is being subjective. So let me be subjective for a moment.. they're not dead even.

And more to the point his form is fine.. his trajectory isn't. He was taking too long with his routine and now it's been shortened and since then he's 5 for 8. Not a big sample size but still there appears to be an improvement. He's not going to be Shaq or Dwight at the line because his form isn't anywhere near that bad. His free throw shooting is a non-issue.. sorry it just is.

Riiiiight. Because stating that his free throw shooting is a non-issue is being objective. He may end up figuring it out because he is still very young, but you can't say that it is a non-issue as a matter-of-fact. His form isn't broken but it isn't good either. 50% is very bad and there have been times that he has looked puzzled and uncomfortable at the line.

How have other big men fared in the NBA being subpar FT shooters? Again not saying he's going to be one but since you want to make it the determining factor in not drafting him the question seems suitable. And his form is fine.. I've seen way worse that worked for good enough free throw percentages.

[Marcus]

serious question.

will there be anything anybody can say about Jah or anything Jah can do to sway your opinion of him? or that you'll even accept about him without some sort of negative reply to it?

just asking because its coming across as less of a conversation and more like bashing Jah in order to praise Karl.

i've mostly just been responding since the conversation tilted towards Okafor and that's where a lot of false statements lie.... and people just seem to want to keep arguing on those points for whatever reason... it might seem like bashing but it's more just lazy analysis...

which is fine.. this is a msg board on the internet... i make a statement.. i get retorts and vice versa....

if i see something off with what you're saying.. i'm gonna call you out ... and ppl seem to have this tendency to throw wild statements about okafor's defense... such as defense doesn't matter for centers... really? or trust me he has tools.. yea ok... or it's not that bad he tries sometimes... huh? and it strikes a chord with me... and i challenge ppl...

if it sounds like bashing then maybe you should probably re-think some things.... there isn't anything emotional in what i'm writing... unless you think there's something wildly off base or biased in what i'm saying in what you quoted me...

the quickness on offense part is also hard to swallow... the side to side movements that are required on defense are not used on offense by anyone..

hummm....

the back and forth about points and counterpoints is more than valid. That's not what I was referring to and nothing specifically in your quote either.

I was referring to whenever someone says something positive about the kid there's a side comment.

He's far from perfect and his defense needs a ton of work which is obvious. The things you say in reference to that is fair.

Its just hard to believe that you can't find anything positive about this kid. You started off solid and fair. you like Towns better and that's more than fair because he has just as strong a case to be the first pick as Jah does.

But lately, saying Towns is the best offensive center since Duncan, (which you admitted you might have misspoke) but its an outlandish statement which you're calling Jah backers out for.

Then turned around and say lets not go to crazy about Jah's performance against SDSU because the opposition had the stomach flu like Jah hadn't been doing this on whatever defense he's faced all year.

Just comes across as bashing.

[djphan]

haha ok.. well look... sdsu had half the team with the stomach flu... it's not an excuse.. but things did seem a little off in that game.. i mean there were multiple air balls... okafor blocked 3 shots... i kid...

and yes the duncan statement was a bit of an exaggeration... but i'm not that far off... .575 at 19pp40 for a freshman center is not a common mark.. so if i forgot demarcus cousins or anthony davis.. .. well ok...

and like i said.. if it comes across as bashing.. i apologize.. but there's probably a lot of dumb goin on which i can't help myself from interjecting... which probably drives a lot of traffic here come to think of it...

[BoutPractice]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /70380424/

Karlito is the mechanism Towns uses to critique his own game. He'll beat himself up over one missed free throw, or even a 4-for-10 shooting night in the midst of a defensive masterpiece ("I can't even get to 50%," he said afterward). Karlito helps keep Towns from getting too high on himself — easier said than done when you're expected to be a top-five pick in June's NBA draft — and also allows him to figure out which areas of his game he can improve. Some nights, it's free throws. Other nights, it's field-goal percentage.

He does harp on that one mistake that he did make," Turco said. "He's striving for perfection night in and night out. ... Even in summer workouts, he'd be one of those guys who's got to make 100 jump shots in a row. He'd get up to 90, 95, miss and start over. Not a lot of kids have that same drive. He sets a goal, and he's not willing to come up short.

Things like that matter as well. They're what separate the merely gifted from the great.

When you have tools like Towns has + evidence of production for a winning team + superior mentality and approach, all this makes him a very safe pick if healthy.

[Wonderllama]

New to the thread. Great discussion so far, but how is FT% not being discussed more?

Okafor is currently at 51%. I love Okafor--best post game and feel I have ever seen at his age, but since his offense game is his bread and butter I worry about that FT%. If he was a 75% FT shooter, I'd take him #1 for sure.

Seriously? So ft% is the determining factor? So obviously you would've passed on Shaq and drafted Zo instead.

Really? I have watched both players a lot and think they are basically dead even. So yes, if Okafor shot 75% from the FT line that would be a "determining factor" for me. That doesn't mean I would have passed on Shaq for Zo. Come on.

There is a twenty page thread with people disagreeing about who is the better player. People were breaking down everything-- even college defensive efficiency numbers and other cloudy stats, so I was surprised that nobody had brought up the fact that Towns could be the best FT shooting center in the NBA while Okafor's unbelievable post skill could be compromised down the stretch of games because he can't make free throws. We are talking about equal prospects here. Something has to be the "determining factor" for why you pick one guy over the other.

The elite bigs in the league right now are great free throw shooters. So to me it's definitely a good tiebreaker if you like both guys equally

[DickGrayson]

If you guys are so enamored with your center shooting jumpers, go draft Myles Turner. He has 3 point range.

Karlito isn't a jumpshooter centering. He's a center with an inside game who can hit jumpshots. Majority of his shots are close range in college, but in the NBA teams will use him inside and outside most likely. Why hate on a guy that has multiple dimensions on offense?

[fresko024]

I'd go with Towns

Although Okafor has a good post game, that's really the only area he excels over Towns. Towns is better away from the basket, a better FT shooter, and a better defender.

[Cammo101]

I'd go with Towns

Although Okafor has a good post game, that's really the only area he excels over Towns. Towns is better away from the basket, a better FT shooter, and a better defender.

While this is true, post offense is a huge part of what big men are asked to do and Okafor isn't just better, he is light-years better in that regard. I don't necessarily disagree with you, it's just not as simple as this guys is better at 1 thing, this guy is better at 3 so he must be better.

[fresko024]

I'd go with Towns

Although Okafor has a good post game, that's really the only area he excels over Towns. Towns is better away from the basket, a better FT shooter, and a better defender.

While this is true, post offense is a huge part of what big men are asked to do and Okafor isn't just better, he is light-years better in that regard. I don't necessarily disagree with you, it's just not as simple as this guys is better at 1 thing, this guy is better at 3 so he must be better.

True but players have been known to develop post games later in their career. You can't teach effort, which is defense and rebounding.

[E-Balla]

I'd go with Towns

Although Okafor has a good post game, that's really the only area he excels over Towns. Towns is better away from the basket, a better FT shooter, and a better defender.

While this is true, post offense is a huge part of what big men are asked to do and Okafor isn't just better, he is light-years better in that regard. I don't necessarily disagree with you, it's just not as simple as this guys is better at 1 thing, this guy is better at 3 so he must be better.

True but players have been known to develop post games later in their career. You can't teach effort, which is defense and rebounding.

Yeah but effort can be improved literally in a second. A post game can't be.

[Ambrose]

If you guys are so enamored with your center shooting jumpers, go draft Myles Turner. He has 3 point range.

Myles Turner has bust written all over him.

[noobcake]

Calling Karlito fans.

What is the excuse for this game? Can't finish over undersized defenders? Foul trouble from playing too much defense?

1 out of 78 points contributed

[Marcus]

Calling Karlito fans.

What is the excuse for this game? Can't finish over undersized defenders? Foul trouble from playing too much defense?

1 out of 78 points contributed

Saw this coming.

Was a bad performance though.

[jpengland]

I'd go with Towns

Although Okafor has a good post game, that's really the only area he excels over Towns. Towns is better away from the basket, a better FT shooter, and a better defender.

While this is true, post offense is a huge part of what big men are asked to do and Okafor isn't just better, he is light-years better in that regard. I don't necessarily disagree with you, it's just not as simple as this guys is better at 1 thing, this guy is better at 3 so he must be better.

You can easily get post offense from a PF, you don't often get rim protection from that position.

A C (especially in this day and age), has to protect the rim. Okafor doesn't - Which makes him exceptionally hard to build a winner around.

That is why he is a bad pick in the top 5.

[DickGrayson]

Still Team Towns.

[Ruzious]

Calling Karlito fans.

What is the excuse for this game? Can't finish over undersized defenders? Foul trouble from playing too much defense?

1 out of 78 points contributed

Does it matter when his team wins 78-39 and you know he'll never face a team like WV in the NBA?

Btw, Huggins is a thug coach. He showed that in the MD game by having a goon come in and take out MD's best player - Trimble - with a moving pick knock-out shoulder to the head. I'm guessing his strategy against KY was to get Towns out of the game. But KY had so many other options that it didn't matter.

[Marcus]

Calling Karlito fans.

What is the excuse for this game? Can't finish over undersized defenders? Foul trouble from playing too much defense?

1 out of 78 points contributed

Does it matter when his team wins 78-39 and you know he'll never face a team like WV in the NBA?

Btw, Huggins is a thug coach. He showed that in the MD game by having a goon come in and take out MD's best player - Trimble - with a moving pick knock-out shoulder to the head. I'm guessing his strategy against KY was to get Towns out of the game. But KY had so many other options that it didn't matter.

i blame the whistles for his foul trouble though. ref's had the quick ones blowing this game. I think they wanted to keep the physicality down. Karl being an aggressive dude in general was hurt by that he got called for some cheapies.

[ColdBlooded]

#TeamTowns