2015 APM/RAPM/etc.

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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#61 » by lorak » Sun Mar 15, 2015 10:53 am

Evan Z updated NPI RAPM.

top 10 overall:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
3,18   -4,23   7,40   Manu Ginobili
4,53   -2,38   6,91   James Harden
2,83   -3,29   6,11   Draymond Green
3,78   -1,94   5,72   Stephen Curry
4,09   -1,04   5,14   Kyle Korver
1,40   -3,65   5,05   Khris Middleton
1,77   -3,03   4,80   Jeff Teague
2,32   -2,42   4,74   Zach Randolph
3,25   -1,44   4,69   Kyle Lowry
4,05   -0,61   4,66   LeBron James


top 10 offense:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
4,53   -2,38   6,91   James Harden
4,09   -1,04   5,14   Kyle Korver
4,08   0,54   3,54   Carmelo Anthony
4,05   -0,61   4,66   LeBron James
3,88   -0,73   4,61   Chandler Parsons
3,88   -0,55   4,43   Tyreke Evans
3,83   -0,46   4,29   Lou Williams
3,78   -1,94   5,72   Stephen Curry
3,54   1,04   2,50   Aaron Brooks
3,42   -0,95   4,37   Chris Paul



top 10 defense:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
3,18   -4,23   7,40   Manu Ginobili
0,77   -3,88   4,66   Nene Hilario
1,40   -3,65   5,05   Khris Middleton
-1,33   -3,40   2,08   Thabo Sefolosha
-1,59   -3,36   1,77   Alan Anderson
0,36   -3,35   3,71   DeMarcus Cousins
0,69   -3,34   4,04   Kawhi Leonard
1,20   -3,33   4,53   C.J. Miles
2,83   -3,29   6,11   Draymond Green
0,89   -3,06   3,94   Jared Dudley



- Middleton still looks like the biggest surprise of the season
- Harden improved a lot on defense in comparison to '14
- Anthony Davis isn't in any top 10, but he is 15th overall, 34th on offense and 26th on defense.
- Cousins looks great on defense and probably would be even better if not coaching changes in Sacramento
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#62 » by drza » Sun Mar 15, 2015 1:42 pm

lorak wrote:Evan Z updated NPI RAPM.

top 10 overall:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
3,18   -4,23   7,40   Manu Ginobili
4,53   -2,38   6,91   James Harden
2,83   -3,29   6,11   Draymond Green
3,78   -1,94   5,72   Stephen Curry
4,09   -1,04   5,14   Kyle Korver
1,40   -3,65   5,05   Khris Middleton
1,77   -3,03   4,80   Jeff Teague
2,32   -2,42   4,74   Zach Randolph
3,25   -1,44   4,69   Kyle Lowry
4,05   -0,61   4,66   LeBron James


top 10 offense:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
4,53   -2,38   6,91   James Harden
4,09   -1,04   5,14   Kyle Korver
4,08   0,54   3,54   Carmelo Anthony
4,05   -0,61   4,66   LeBron James
3,88   -0,73   4,61   Chandler Parsons
3,88   -0,55   4,43   Tyreke Evans
3,83   -0,46   4,29   Lou Williams
3,78   -1,94   5,72   Stephen Curry
3,54   1,04   2,50   Aaron Brooks
3,42   -0,95   4,37   Chris Paul



top 10 defense:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
3,18   -4,23   7,40   Manu Ginobili
0,77   -3,88   4,66   Nene Hilario
1,40   -3,65   5,05   Khris Middleton
-1,33   -3,40   2,08   Thabo Sefolosha
-1,59   -3,36   1,77   Alan Anderson
0,36   -3,35   3,71   DeMarcus Cousins
0,69   -3,34   4,04   Kawhi Leonard
1,20   -3,33   4,53   C.J. Miles
2,83   -3,29   6,11   Draymond Green
0,89   -3,06   3,94   Jared Dudley



- Middleton still looks like the biggest surprise of the season
- Harden improved a lot on defense in comparison to '14
- Anthony Davis isn't in any top 10, but he is 15th overall, 34th on offense and 26th on defense.
- Cousins looks great on defense and probably would be even better if not coaching changes in Sacramento


I followed the link, but I'm not seeing the total RAPM tab. I just see offense and defense. Did you combine them manually to get the 3rd tab? Or did the 3rd tab just not show up on the link?
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#63 » by Krodis » Sun Mar 15, 2015 4:13 pm

Manu Ginobili being that high on defense is pretty crazy. Probably noise issues there.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#64 » by RSCD3_ » Sun Mar 15, 2015 5:01 pm

Krodis wrote:Manu Ginobili being that high on defense is pretty crazy. Probably noise issues there.


Or white LeBron

Spoiler:
Chandler Parsons


Being so close to Real LeBron
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#65 » by SideshowBob » Sun Mar 15, 2015 9:50 pm

Good stuff, just need an updated PI set now.

Does anyone have a link to 2014 NPI?
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#66 » by fuzzy_dunlop » Sun Mar 15, 2015 9:56 pm

SideshowBob wrote:Good stuff, just need an updated PI set now.


PI RPM as well plz.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#67 » by bondom34 » Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:37 am

And per Evan Z, another update:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1783210900

Harden even better defensively, now at -3.75. Also tops offensively.

Anthony Morrow jumped offensively, Westbrook top 15 too.

Defense top 10:

Code: Select all

1   Manu Ginobili   -5.16
2   Draymond Green   -5.02
3   Markieff Morris   -4.60
4   DeMarcus Cousins   -4.37
5   Kawhi Leonard   -4.33
6   Thabo Sefolosha   -4.18
7   Tony Allen   -4.12
8   C.J. Miles   -4.08
9   Nene Hilario   -4.06
10   Khris Middleton   -3.86

Offense:

Code: Select all

1   James Harden   6.30
2   Kyle Korver   5.67
3   Anthony Morrow   5.64
4   Carmelo Anthony   5.55
5   LeBron James   5.12
6   Stephen Curry   4.97
7   Aaron Brooks   4.66
8   Lou Williams   4.66
9   Ty Lawson   4.53
10   Chris Paul   4.36
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#68 » by Greatness » Sat Mar 28, 2015 12:41 am

Reinforces that Harden should be the MVP
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#69 » by LA Bird » Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:15 am

Defense
Bogut: -1.39 (94th)
Gobert: -0.40 (171st)
Butler: -0.38 (173rd)

:nonono:
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#70 » by PaulieWal » Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:17 am

Greatness wrote:Reinforces that Harden should be the MVP


There seems to be a lot of noise in this particular set. Lowry is at 17 defensively and he's been average to below average for most part this season defensively.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#71 » by SideshowBob » Sat Mar 28, 2015 1:24 am

Those are wild swings in just 12 days. Look at the top 10 DS/lorak posted on March 15th:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
3,18   -4,23   7,40   Manu Ginobili
4,53   -2,38   6,91   James Harden
2,83   -3,29   6,11   Draymond Green
3,78   -1,94   5,72   Stephen Curry
4,09   -1,04   5,14   Kyle Korver
1,40   -3,65   5,05   Khris Middleton
1,77   -3,03   4,80   Jeff Teague
2,32   -2,42   4,74   Zach Randolph
3,25   -1,44   4,69   Kyle Lowry
4,05   -0,61   4,66   LeBron James


This is the current top 10:

Harden +10.06
Green +8.38
Curry +8.35
Ginobili +8.22
Morrow +7.97
Korver +7.04
Davis +6.81
Leonard +6.73
Lowry +6.66
Lillard +6.42

These guys slipped out of the top 10:

Teague +4.68
Middlteon +5.52
Randolph +6.39
James +5.91

Do these huge swings not reinforce the instability of NPI RAPM (which I've said year after year)? Considering we only added a week and a half worth of data 80% into the season, this should be a warning sign at the least.

I'm still hoping JE updates his 2015 PI set soon, which I've always been more confident with.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#72 » by bondom34 » Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:19 am

SideshowBob wrote:Those are wild swings in just 12 days. Look at the top 10 DS/lorak posted on March 15th:

Code: Select all

ORAPM   DRAPM   RAPM   Name
3,18   -4,23   7,40   Manu Ginobili
4,53   -2,38   6,91   James Harden
2,83   -3,29   6,11   Draymond Green
3,78   -1,94   5,72   Stephen Curry
4,09   -1,04   5,14   Kyle Korver
1,40   -3,65   5,05   Khris Middleton
1,77   -3,03   4,80   Jeff Teague
2,32   -2,42   4,74   Zach Randolph
3,25   -1,44   4,69   Kyle Lowry
4,05   -0,61   4,66   LeBron James


This is the current top 10:

Harden +10.06
Green +8.38
Curry +8.35
Ginobili +8.22
Morrow +7.97
Korver +7.04
Davis +6.81
Leonard +6.73
Lowry +6.66
Lillard +6.42

These guys slipped out of the top 10:

Teague +4.68
Middlteon +5.52
Randolph +6.39
James +5.91

Do these huge swings not reinforce the instability of NPI RAPM (which I've said year after year)? Considering we only added a week and a half worth of data 80% into the season, this should be a warning sign at the least.

I'm still hoping JE updates his 2015 PI set soon, which I've always been more confident with.

Yeah, crazy. We only figured it out that there were updates because of the debate in the other thread on Ariza. Harden's D number jumped like mad.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#73 » by lorak » Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:21 pm

I don't have account on APBR board, but maybe someone who has would ask EvanZ about this? Because so big differences in a couple of weeks seem really odd.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#74 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Mar 28, 2015 3:44 pm

Speaking of APBR, I've been trying to join for a while now and they won't send me the activation email. I sent an email to the guy who posted the sticky about it but I haven't heard anything from him either. Have any of you guys ever had problems with this? And those of you who are on the board, could you point me to someone I could talk to?
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#75 » by SideshowBob » Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:30 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:Speaking of APBR, I've been trying to join for a while now and they won't send me the activation email. I sent an email to the guy who posted the sticky about it but I haven't heard anything from him either. Have any of you guys ever had problems with this? And those of you who are on the board, could you point me to someone I could talk to?


Not sure. Traffic on that site is slow, maybe Daniel hasn't gotten to it?
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#76 » by SideshowBob » Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:32 pm

SideshowBob wrote:Do we have instances in previous years where multiple NPI samples are available? I'm almost certain this exact scenario played out in 2012 as well, we had NPI from like April and then got an update around the Finals which had similarly wild swings, and the conclusion at that time was the same - that NPI was just too noisy within single seasons.


My gut tells me these discussions were either in the Peaks project (it's been 3 years, we should consider this for the summer) or the POY threads for that year. I'll start skimming through them to see if I can find anything.

colts has the older 2012 NPI set archived: Link.

There was an update in I want to say June and that's the one I'm looking for.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#77 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Mar 28, 2015 4:50 pm

SideshowBob wrote:Peaks project (it's been 3 years, we should consider this for the summer)


Absolutely we should. I wasn't around the last time they did it, and that project and the RPOY project are things I'm very sorry I missed out on. RPOY obviously can't really be redone due to logistics and attrition, but the peaks project is absolutely something that could be updated.

If I'm not mistaken, that project died last time around #30, correct? We'd have to figure out a way to prevent that, and whether we can do both that and Hibachi's project at the same time (is that still going forward?).
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#78 » by Quotatious » Sat Mar 28, 2015 5:03 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:Absolutely we should. I wasn't around the last time they did it, and that project and the RPOY project are things I'm very sorry I missed out on. RPOY obviously can't really be redone due to logistics and attrition, but the peaks project is absolutely something that could be updated.

If I'm not mistaken, that project died last time around #30, correct? We'd have to figure out a way to prevent that, and whether we can do both that and Hibachi's project at the same time (is that still going forward?).

Totally agree, especially considering that we've had some great seasons since that time - 2014 Durant, or this year's Curry and Harden (depending on how well they'll play in the postseason), may have a chance to be ranked pretty high.

I just looked at the list, and you're right - the project died at 33 ('87 McHale was the last player selected). 2009 LeBron was ranked 10th...IMO that's way too low. Kobe over Wade and T-Mac...I'd gladly correct this one, too. :D
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#79 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat Mar 28, 2015 5:22 pm

Quotatious wrote:Kobe over Wade and T-Mac...I'd gladly correct this one, too.


You've had some great posts on McGrady lately and I've decided I'm going to revisit and take a closer look. In my younger days I pretty much wrote him off as a ballhog with an attitude problem, but given how much I preach being unbiased and countering narratives that kind of makes me a hypocrite. You've inspired me to go back and watch some more McGrady, especially playoffs, and see if I can't get a handle on what you're seeing.

Incidentally, I've noticed we've had quite a few posters who have sort of become experts on certain players (not like "I'm a huge fan", but more like "I went back and took a closer look, and there's a bunch of stuff here that's way more impressive than we realized at the time".) You certainly fit this with McGrady and a couple others, SSB is amazing with his unbelievably thorough breakdowns of MJ and LeBron, I've seen some amazing posts by ardee on Wilt and ronnymac on Hakeem, etc. I've obviously become the Robinson guy, and if we do such a project I'm going to be pushing him very, very early. Not going to say where exactly, but let's just say it will turn a lot of heads.

Anyway, I'd love to get a project like this going, because the one thing I love more than anything else in the world is learning. It's less about the rankings than the discussion, and as someone who spends most of his time soaking up all the knowledge I can find, a project like this is really exciting.
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Re: 2015 APM/RAPM/etc. 

Post#80 » by Quotatious » Sat Mar 28, 2015 6:27 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:You've had some great posts on McGrady lately and I've decided I'm going to revisit and take a closer look. In my younger days I pretty much wrote him off as a ballhog with an attitude problem, but given how much I preach being unbiased and countering narratives that kind of makes me a hypocrite. You've inspired me to go back and watch some more McGrady, especially playoffs, and see if I can't get a handle on what you're seeing.

Incidentally, I've noticed we've had quite a few posters who have sort of become experts on certain players (not like "I'm a huge fan", but more like "I went back and took a closer look, and there's a bunch of stuff here that's way more impressive than we realized at the time".) You certainly fit this with McGrady and a couple others, SSB is amazing with his unbelievably thorough breakdowns of MJ and LeBron, I've seen some amazing posts by ardee on Wilt and ronnymac on Hakeem, etc. I've obviously become the Robinson guy, and if we do such a project I'm going to be pushing him very, very early. Not going to say where exactly, but let's just say it will turn a lot of heads.

Anyway, I'd love to get a project like this going, because the one thing I love more than anything else in the world is learning. It's less about the rankings than the discussion, and as someone who spends most of his time soaking up all the knowledge I can find, a project like this is really exciting.

I don't consider myself an expert on T-Mac's game, by any means, but thanks for the kind words, anyway.

In the "replace Kevin Durant with Tracy McGrady (01-05) from 11-15" thread, you said "Only 2003 McGrady has a case against any version of KD from 2012-15, and Durant in 2014 peaked higher than 2003 McGrady anyway. Durant is a clearly superior player, and the Thunder would be quite a bit worse with McGrady in place of him."

I agree with almost everything. "Almost", because I really don't think that 2014 Durant over 2003 McGrady is clear. I actually rank T-Mac ahead, by the slimmest of margins. Their boxscore numbers are extremely comparable (PER, WS/48, BPM, VORP almost equal), but McGrady seemed to have even higher impact, and he played a bit better against a top 5 defensive team in the playoffs. By "higher impact", I mean - T-Mac's on/off court net was +11.8, Durant's was +7.3 (according to 82games.com), and the Magic had 109.3 ORtg with McGrady on the court, 91.8 without him (+17.5), Thunder had 112.3 with Durant on the court, 103.3 without him ("only" +9.0 differential). That's a solid gap in T-Mac's favor. McGrady was a better playmaker (his AST/TOV% ratio was amazing, even better than prime MJ's), and even though his scoring efficiency was much lower (63.5 to 56.4% TS, with pretty much the same scoring average), less of shots were assisted on. The gap in terms of TS% is smaller when you adjust it to league average (league average TS% in 2003 was 51.9%, in 2014 it was 54.1%, so the gap shrinks from 7.1% to just 4.9% - I'd still take Durant as a pure scorer, but I'd lean towards McGrady as an overall offensive player, because of his superior ballhandling and playmaking).

It's extremely close, and if you think that KD was better, I have no problem with that. I just have a problem with the fact that you apparently don't see it as very close, in terms of peak.

I totally agree that Durant is easily superior if you compare their 5-year primes (01-05 T-Mac, 10-14 KD). McGrady's 2003 season was an outlier compared to the rest of his prime.

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