Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
- Quake Griffin
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Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
I don't wish injury on anybody. I wouldn't want to have those injuries just walking around as a normal person……
But do we want him back?
Does him being injured take Doc's bullets away from him?
But do we want him back?
Does him being injured take Doc's bullets away from him?
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
- mttwlsn16
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
I would like him back to take some of Doc Jr's minutes for sure. I just wish coach would play JJ in the 4th more, and just let Jamal do his thing with the bench unit.

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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
The alternative is Nate Robinson who plays a similar way but makes a lot fewer shots and is a midget on defense, and Austin Rivers who destroys teams like the Knicks, but is awful on offense most nights and tries but can't make it up with above average defense.
Yes, Doc has needed to reign in how he uses him at times, and he hasn't done so, he's more or less left the decision making to the players. Jamal is a great spot up shooter though, especially from the corners. An open / semi-open three off a pass from Blake or CP down the stretch to Jamal is a great play. Does the team still put itself in the position where they have to run too many Jamal isolation plays? Probably, but that's because the team runs too many all bench lineups.
We certainly want him back though. At the least he can also occupy a perimeter defender if he gets hot, which can take them away from Paul or even JJ, depending on the team. Against the best teams, having almost no bench production on offense will be difficult o survive with.
Still, we have to examine the numbers:
14-15 Pull-ups 52.2% of possessions:
36.5% FG || 26.2% 3PT || 40.9% eFG%
14-15 Catch and Shoot 29.0% of possessions:
41.2% FG || 38.6% 3PT || 57.9% eFG
13-14 Pull-up 44.4% poss:
41.0% FG || 36.4% 3PT || 46.8% 3FG
13-14 Catch and Shoot 33.7% poss:
37.0% FG || 35.8% 3PT || 52.5% eFG
If you're hitting 36% of pull-up three's, that's a good shot. This season if has not been a good shot at 10% lower conversion rate.
Last season, 34.3% of his shot attempts came after 3+ dribbles, and 39.9% with 0 dribbles this season it is 43.7% with 3+ dribbles and 31% with 0 dribbles. How much of this is the inferior bench production with no Collison to create shots for Jamal at least every once in a while and how much is it actually Jamal.
The landscape has changed this season. Last season there was better PG play off the bench, Redick's injury gave Jamal more minutes with the starters, and that has to be accounted for in terms of its effect on the kind of shots he's taking.
Jamal with and without Paul on the court:

As we can see, he's actually very efficient when he's playing with Paul on the court, and we'll see why:

With Paul on the floor, Jamal becomes assisted on 58% of his made baskets while with Paul off, it's down to 35%, that's a HUGE difference. Jamal is actually playing more of his minutes with Paul, 15 than without, 11. So what the team needs to do is figure out how to make those 11 minutes without Paul more productive (eg: Blake on the floor, stagger minutes).
Yes, Doc has needed to reign in how he uses him at times, and he hasn't done so, he's more or less left the decision making to the players. Jamal is a great spot up shooter though, especially from the corners. An open / semi-open three off a pass from Blake or CP down the stretch to Jamal is a great play. Does the team still put itself in the position where they have to run too many Jamal isolation plays? Probably, but that's because the team runs too many all bench lineups.
We certainly want him back though. At the least he can also occupy a perimeter defender if he gets hot, which can take them away from Paul or even JJ, depending on the team. Against the best teams, having almost no bench production on offense will be difficult o survive with.
Still, we have to examine the numbers:
14-15 Pull-ups 52.2% of possessions:
36.5% FG || 26.2% 3PT || 40.9% eFG%
14-15 Catch and Shoot 29.0% of possessions:
41.2% FG || 38.6% 3PT || 57.9% eFG
13-14 Pull-up 44.4% poss:
41.0% FG || 36.4% 3PT || 46.8% 3FG
13-14 Catch and Shoot 33.7% poss:
37.0% FG || 35.8% 3PT || 52.5% eFG
If you're hitting 36% of pull-up three's, that's a good shot. This season if has not been a good shot at 10% lower conversion rate.
Last season, 34.3% of his shot attempts came after 3+ dribbles, and 39.9% with 0 dribbles this season it is 43.7% with 3+ dribbles and 31% with 0 dribbles. How much of this is the inferior bench production with no Collison to create shots for Jamal at least every once in a while and how much is it actually Jamal.
The landscape has changed this season. Last season there was better PG play off the bench, Redick's injury gave Jamal more minutes with the starters, and that has to be accounted for in terms of its effect on the kind of shots he's taking.
Jamal with and without Paul on the court:

As we can see, he's actually very efficient when he's playing with Paul on the court, and we'll see why:

With Paul on the floor, Jamal becomes assisted on 58% of his made baskets while with Paul off, it's down to 35%, that's a HUGE difference. Jamal is actually playing more of his minutes with Paul, 15 than without, 11. So what the team needs to do is figure out how to make those 11 minutes without Paul more productive (eg: Blake on the floor, stagger minutes).
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
- Dynamix
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
The second unit needs his scoring. The real problem is when he plays heavy minutes with the first unit and Doc/CP refer to him way too much on iso plays. I think he's a great asset during regular season, but his streaky shooting and subpar defense do not translate well to the playoffs.
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
- Quake Griffin
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
OG.
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the most thorough poster of all time.
“I’ve always felt that drafting is the life blood of any organization.” - Jerome Alan West.
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
I want jamal back asap. that will put Austin on the bench. doc must use jamal wisely and jj has proved he is surely a better option in close games late. I am sure in the playoffs the starters minutes will go up and the rotations will be reduced. the likes of nate, Austin, and hamilton will see very little time. if it were me the subs would be hawes, baby, jamal, and turk. everybody else gets to cheerlead.
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
- QRich3
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
og15 wrote:The alternative is Nate Robinson who plays a similar way but makes a lot fewer shots and is a midget on defense, and Austin Rivers who destroys teams like the Knicks, but is awful on offense most nights and tries but can't make it up with above average defense.
Yes, Doc has needed to reign in how he uses him at times, and he hasn't done so, he's more or less left the decision making to the players. Jamal is a great spot up shooter though, especially from the corners. An open / semi-open three off a pass from Blake or CP down the stretch to Jamal is a great play. Does the team still put itself in the position where they have to run too many Jamal isolation plays? Probably, but that's because the team runs too many all bench lineups.
Yeah, he's a better alternative than Nate or Austin and he's worked well on certain situations with the starters (in addition to what you quoted, I remember the team scoring really well in his drive-and-dish plays with the starters), but the reality is that Doc is not gonna restrain himself in playing him in certain situations, and he can lose the team a game or two because of it (I'm thinking OKC game 5 last year). If you lose a game for your team in the regular season, it's all good as long as your averages are ok, in the playoffs it ain't though. There's 7 games a series, and if you take the team out of rhythm in one of them, it doesn't matter that you play ok in the next few, it's gonna be a hell to crawl back from it. It works both ways and he also may get hot and win you a game or two here and there, but in the playoffs I think I'd rather not have that wild card polarizing player on the court, even if in the end he amounts to an average player. I think I might rather have the regularly mediocre player whose flaws you can plan against.
Not sure if that makes a lot of sense but it's how I see it, I think.
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
i've always liked and hated jamal at the same time.
Id be ok with his not coming back to be honest. I really dislike how he is in to finish games and JJ isn't. Or if JJ is in, Jamal is at the 3. OG posted a lot of stats about offense, but none about defense. This isn't a shot, but rather a question. How much worse are the clippers with jamal? Blake is pretty lazy on defense, so blake and Jamal on the courst at the same time just infuriates me. Plus Jamal's iso plays get old fast.
Id be ok with his not coming back to be honest. I really dislike how he is in to finish games and JJ isn't. Or if JJ is in, Jamal is at the 3. OG posted a lot of stats about offense, but none about defense. This isn't a shot, but rather a question. How much worse are the clippers with jamal? Blake is pretty lazy on defense, so blake and Jamal on the courst at the same time just infuriates me. Plus Jamal's iso plays get old fast.
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
kylem4711 wrote:i've always liked and hated jamal at the same time.
Id be ok with his not coming back to be honest. I really dislike how he is in to finish games and JJ isn't. Or if JJ is in, Jamal is at the 3. OG posted a lot of stats about offense, but none about defense. This isn't a shot, but rather a question. How much worse are the clippers with jamal? Blake is pretty lazy on defense, so blake and Jamal on the courst at the same time just infuriates me. Plus Jamal's iso plays get old fast.
Not that they say the whole story, but RAPM for this year says he's a net zero on offense and a negative on defense (with a -1.0, nothing too outrageous but one of the 100 worst players in the league), and his raw on/off numbers say he's one of our worst defensive players when he's in, one of the best when he's out

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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
Who cares if we play Jamal or Nate in the second unit.
The problem is Jamal taking minutes away from JJ and Barnes who are both better 3pt shooters and better defenders who actually put in effort.
The only reason why I don't want Jamal back is because of how Doc uses him. Otherwise I'd love Jamal back because he is very talented.
The problem is Jamal taking minutes away from JJ and Barnes who are both better 3pt shooters and better defenders who actually put in effort.
The only reason why I don't want Jamal back is because of how Doc uses him. Otherwise I'd love Jamal back because he is very talented.
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
kylem4711 wrote:i've always liked and hated jamal at the same time.
Id be ok with his not coming back to be honest. I really dislike how he is in to finish games and JJ isn't. Or if JJ is in, Jamal is at the 3. OG posted a lot of stats about offense, but none about defense. This isn't a shot, but rather a question. How much worse are the clippers with jamal? Blake is pretty lazy on defense, so blake and Jamal on the courst at the same time just infuriates me. Plus Jamal's iso plays get old fast.
I'll mimic what Q-Rich3 said, I'm going to say he's a negative defender, but the alternatives aren't great
This is true, and we've seen both VDN and Doc do this when the situation got dire. Jamal's 14 minutes in game 6 last season and VDN 12 minutes after starting off 0-5 in 12-13. When the series is on the line, the coaches don't trust leaving Jamal in if he isn't doing well on offense as a scorer since we know he doesn't do the things outside of offense and scoring well enough to leave him on for those things.QRich3 wrote:og15 wrote:The alternative is Nate Robinson who plays a similar way but makes a lot fewer shots and is a midget on defense, and Austin Rivers who destroys teams like the Knicks, but is awful on offense most nights and tries but can't make it up with above average defense.
Yes, Doc has needed to reign in how he uses him at times, and he hasn't done so, he's more or less left the decision making to the players. Jamal is a great spot up shooter though, especially from the corners. An open / semi-open three off a pass from Blake or CP down the stretch to Jamal is a great play. Does the team still put itself in the position where they have to run too many Jamal isolation plays? Probably, but that's because the team runs too many all bench lineups.
Yeah, he's a better alternative than Nate or Austin and he's worked well on certain situations with the starters (in addition to what you quoted, I remember the team scoring really well in his drive-and-dish plays with the starters), but the reality is that Doc is not gonna restrain himself in playing him in certain situations, and he can lose the team a game or two because of it (I'm thinking OKC game 5 last year). If you lose a game for your team in the regular season, it's all good as long as your averages are ok, in the playoffs it ain't though. There's 7 games a series, and if you take the team out of rhythm in one of them, it doesn't matter that you play ok in the next few, it's gonna be a hell to crawl back from it. It works both ways and he also may get hot and win you a game or two here and there, but in the playoffs I think I'd rather not have that wild card polarizing player on the court, even if in the end he amounts to an average player. I think I might rather have the regularly mediocre player whose flaws you can plan against.
Not sure if that makes a lot of sense but it's how I see it, I think.
Game 5 was definitely what first came to my head as a started reading your post, and that is true, especially in a one point loss where every basket, every possession mattered. I can't say for sure what Doc will do, but at least he's shown he's willing to sit him in the playoffs if he's off.
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
- thanumba2clippersfan
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
I agree that we do need Jamal back this season. Based on how our bench is constructed we need some scoring. However from what I've seen from Jamal this season he hasn't been efficient and it's been tougher for him to score.
I honestly hope that we can get something of value for Jamal in the offseason. However I know that it will be tough to trade a 35 year old scorer.
I honestly hope that we can get something of value for Jamal in the offseason. However I know that it will be tough to trade a 35 year old scorer.
I've been an LA Clipper fan since 1998 and that will never change. I hate our new logo and jerseys!
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
LACtdom wrote:Who cares if we play Jamal or Nate in the second unit.
The problem is Jamal taking minutes away from JJ and Barnes who are both better 3pt shooters and better defenders who actually put in effort.
The only reason why I don't want Jamal back is because of how Doc uses him. Otherwise I'd love Jamal back because he is very talented.
This isn't true. Jamal is a far superior 3PT shooter to Barnes if he's actually spotting up. Jamal's 3PT% is hurt by the fact that he takes 2.4 pullup three's a game and makes 26% of them.
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
og15 wrote:LACtdom wrote:Who cares if we play Jamal or Nate in the second unit.
The problem is Jamal taking minutes away from JJ and Barnes who are both better 3pt shooters and better defenders who actually put in effort.
The only reason why I don't want Jamal back is because of how Doc uses him. Otherwise I'd love Jamal back because he is very talented.
This isn't true. Jamal is a far superior 3PT shooter to Barnes if he's actually spotting up. Jamal's 3PT% is hurt by the fact that he takes 2.4 pullup three's a game and makes 26% of them.
That's my point. Unless Jamal becomes a pure spot up shooter then we have to look at his entire game, which in my opinion is less valuable than what Barnes brings to the team. You can't say someone is a better shooter but only look at the areas of shooting he is good at, the same way you can't say someone is a better player by just looking at a single stat category and ignoring the rest. You wouldn't say that DJ is better than Blake because he shoots a higher %, you would take into account all aspects of their game. If we look at what JJ, JC and Barnes give us then it's easy to see that Crawford is the least efficient due to his poor shot selection and lack defense.
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
Well we can't confuse efficiency vs ability. Jamal IS a better shooter, you're not arguing that he's an inferior shooter, you're arguing that he's less efficient because of shot selection.LACtdom wrote:og15 wrote:LACtdom wrote:Who cares if we play Jamal or Nate in the second unit.
The problem is Jamal taking minutes away from JJ and Barnes who are both better 3pt shooters and better defenders who actually put in effort.
The only reason why I don't want Jamal back is because of how Doc uses him. Otherwise I'd love Jamal back because he is very talented.
This isn't true. Jamal is a far superior 3PT shooter to Barnes if he's actually spotting up. Jamal's 3PT% is hurt by the fact that he takes 2.4 pullup three's a game and makes 26% of them.
That's my point. Unless Jamal becomes a pure spot up shooter then we have to look at his entire game, which in my opinion is less valuable than what Barnes brings to the team. You can't say someone is a better shooter but only look at the areas of shooting he is good at, the same way you can't say someone is a better player by just looking at a single stat category and ignoring the rest. You wouldn't say that DJ is better than Blake because he shoots a higher %, you would take into account all aspects of their game. If we look at what JJ, JC and Barnes give us then it's easy to see that Crawford is the least efficient due to his poor shot selection and lack defense.
If you look at the splits I quoted above though, we see than when Paul is on the floor, Jamal plays primarily as an assisted player (58%) of his baskets assisted and shoots:
Left Corner 3 - 47.1%
Right Corner 3 - 38.5%
Above The Break 3 - 37.1%
Total 3PT - 38.0%
Now, where I do agree is that the Paul/Redick/Crawford/Griffin/Jordan is just not a good defensive lineup, but Barnes doesn't hit spot up three's better in that role than Jamal does.
Barnes with Paul on the court
Left Corner 3 - 27.9%
Right Corner 3 - 45.8%
Above the Break 3 - 37.9%
Total 3PT - 37.6%
Barnes numbers are purely catch and shoot 99.1% 3PTA assisted with Paul on the court, while Jamal still creates some (80.3% assisted), but shoots the same percentage. So just saying that it isn't accurate to say Barnes shoots better in that role, he doesn't, but it is better balance for the team because he can still shoot and he defends much better.
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
og15 wrote:Well we can't confuse efficiency vs ability. Jamal IS a better shooter, you're not arguing that he's an inferior shooter, you're arguing that he's less efficient because of shot selection.LACtdom wrote:og15 wrote:This isn't true. Jamal is a far superior 3PT shooter to Barnes if he's actually spotting up. Jamal's 3PT% is hurt by the fact that he takes 2.4 pullup three's a game and makes 26% of them.
That's my point. Unless Jamal becomes a pure spot up shooter then we have to look at his entire game, which in my opinion is less valuable than what Barnes brings to the team. You can't say someone is a better shooter but only look at the areas of shooting he is good at, the same way you can't say someone is a better player by just looking at a single stat category and ignoring the rest. You wouldn't say that DJ is better than Blake because he shoots a higher %, you would take into account all aspects of their game. If we look at what JJ, JC and Barnes give us then it's easy to see that Crawford is the least efficient due to his poor shot selection and lack defense.
If you look at the splits I quoted above though, we see than when Paul is on the floor, Jamal plays primarily as an assisted player (58%) of his baskets assisted and shoots:
Left Corner 3 - 47.1%
Right Corner 3 - 38.5%
Above The Break 3 - 37.1%
Total 3PT - 38.0%
Now, where I do agree is that the Paul/Redick/Crawford/Griffin/Jordan is just not a good defensive lineup, but Barnes doesn't hit spot up three's better in that role than Jamal does.
Barnes with Paul on the court
Left Corner 3 - 27.9%
Right Corner 3 - 45.8%
Above the Break 3 - 37.9%
Total 3PT - 37.6%
Barnes numbers are purely catch and shoot 99.1% 3PTA assisted with Paul on the court, while Jamal still creates some (80.3% assisted), but shoots the same percentage. So just saying that it isn't accurate to say Barnes shoots better in that role, he doesn't, but it is better balance for the team because he can still shoot and he defends much better.
You're right, my argument was voiced terribly and inconsistently. There is no doubt about Jamal's talent.
I haven't checked the stats but I would guess that JJ is a better catch and shoot player than Jamal and is arguably better defensively so it would make sense to have JJ as our SG late in the 4th.
The question is, are we that desperate for points that we are willing to sacrifice Barnes' energetic defense for a slightly higher catch and shoot percentage?
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
LACtdom wrote:
You're right, my argument was voiced terribly and inconsistently. There is no doubt about Jamal's talent.
I haven't checked the stats but I would guess that JJ is a better catch and shoot player than Jamal and is arguably better defensively so it would make sense to have JJ as our SG late in the 4th.
The question is, are we that desperate for points that we are willing to sacrifice Barnes' energetic defense for a slightly higher catch and shoot percentage?
You are not just sacrificing catch and shoot percentage . Crawford shoots the 2nd most fts on the team is the second best ballhandler , the only other perimeter player that can create his own shot consistently , and above all else he allows Rivers to dictate match ups against certain teams . The Clippers have one of highest 4 quarter +/- in the league and Crawford was the leading 4th quarter scorer when he got hurt the Clippers are top ten in both defense and offensive efficiency in the 4th quarter . There is really no rational reason that Doc Rivers would not play jamal as the team has shown that although he is not a great defender he really isnt hurting the team defensively . He doesnt cut into JJ minutes as Doc goes 3 guards to finish the games as Barnes has never been a 30+ mpg player . I see people they donnt want him back for the playoffs ? JJ back spasms or Barnes tweaks his hamstring then what ?

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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
chitownsports4ever wrote:LACtdom wrote:
You're right, my argument was voiced terribly and inconsistently. There is no doubt about Jamal's talent.
I haven't checked the stats but I would guess that JJ is a better catch and shoot player than Jamal and is arguably better defensively so it would make sense to have JJ as our SG late in the 4th.
The question is, are we that desperate for points that we are willing to sacrifice Barnes' energetic defense for a slightly higher catch and shoot percentage?
You are not just sacrificing catch and shoot percentage . Crawford shoots the 2nd most fts on the team is the second best ballhandler , the only other perimeter player that can create his own shot consistently , and above all else he allows Rivers to dictate match ups against certain teams . The Clippers have one of highest 4 quarter +/- in the league and Crawford was the leading 4th quarter scorer when he got hurt the Clippers are top ten in both defense and offensive efficiency in the 4th quarter . There is really no rational reason that Doc Rivers would not play jamal as the team has shown that although he is not a great defender he really isnt hurting the team defensively . He doesnt cut into JJ minutes as Doc goes 3 guards to finish the games as Barnes has never been a 30+ mpg player . I see people they donnt want him back for the playoffs ? JJ back spasms or Barnes tweaks his hamstring then what ?
The one thing we should be careful about here is why Jamal is one of the 4th quarter leading scorers. The automatic assumption is that "well they rely on him to be a scorer to close out games". This is partially true, but raw numbers wise, it is because he plays the most minutes on the team in the 4th. This is because if the Clippers are up 20 going into the 4th, Jamal will stay in with the bench before the super end of bench guys come in. So Part of it is that, yes, offensively he's helpful, but also that if the team has a blowout and the bench is in, Jamal generally would get extra minutes playing with them and have a very high usage.

If we look at per 36 minute 4th quarter production, we see that Chris Paul is the teams leader, though I don't think that was hard to guess. Jamal is 2nd, now I don't know what Jamal's numbers are in close games as of course his volume numbers are helped by playing 4th quarter minutes with bench units, but he's still doing a great job in volume and efficiency either way.

Now looking at the shooting, Redick doesn't look so hot, so this is where you can argue for "okay, don't use the 3 guard lineup, but Jamal should get the nod over Redick". What we should pay attention to though is that Matt Barnes has a .598 TS% in the 4th and is the most efficient of all three, so should he be sitting?

Well Barnes doesn't have a high scoring rate, and his 3PT shooting in the 4th isn't as good as through the whole game, but from lineup data, looks like the defensive contributions more than make up, and the team offense is good with him on.

The next thing is to ask whether the 3 guard lineup actually does better than the lineups with Barnes.

Out of all the lineups that play significant minutes, the 3 guard lineup the worst defensive lineups for the Clippers by far and doesn't have enough of an offensive advantage to make up for it. Starters are best on defense, followed by starters with Hawes in for Blake.
What about in the 4th quarter

Here we actually see that isolating for the 4th quarter, the lineups with one of the SG's and Barnes have produced better on offense AND on defense. We also see a lot of those bench lineups with Jamal that were ending blowout type games, and they produced on offense. Next we see something odd that despite Jamal's overall 4th quarter numbers being better shooting wise than Redick, the teams best NetRtg from the top 3 lineups in the 4th quarter comes from the starting lineup due to much superior defense.
There's the outlier lineup of 3 guards a small forward and DJ that kills it, but with 8 games and 26 mins, we might not take too much from that. That same lineup with Griffin instead of DJ is killer on offense, but awful on defense.
One thing seems to keep repeating itself, and that is that the lineups with Barnes at SF just seem to be better. Clippers get enough shot creating from Redick running around, CP and Blake that the offense is fine. The ones with Jamal again are also better, but the ones with Jamal and Redick are just not good on defense. Defensively, certainly we see an advantage with the Redick/Barnes lineup, which some people would say supports their thoughts. Individually though, Jamal outproduces Redick in the 4th in all aspects. How much the minutes playing against "scrubs" in blowout games could maybe pad his numbers, I don't know, but not enough where he should be worse or anything either.
So it's not necessarily an easy decision. I think you could play it by matchups and situations in terms of Redick or Crawford, but I would personally say that 3 guard is not the best choice by any means.
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
og15 wrote:chitownsports4ever wrote:LACtdom wrote:
You're right, my argument was voiced terribly and inconsistently. There is no doubt about Jamal's talent.
I haven't checked the stats but I would guess that JJ is a better catch and shoot player than Jamal and is arguably better defensively so it would make sense to have JJ as our SG late in the 4th.
The question is, are we that desperate for points that we are willing to sacrifice Barnes' energetic defense for a slightly higher catch and shoot percentage?
You are not just sacrificing catch and shoot percentage . Crawford shoots the 2nd most fts on the team is the second best ballhandler , the only other perimeter player that can create his own shot consistently , and above all else he allows Rivers to dictate match ups against certain teams . The Clippers have one of highest 4 quarter +/- in the league and Crawford was the leading 4th quarter scorer when he got hurt the Clippers are top ten in both defense and offensive efficiency in the 4th quarter . There is really no rational reason that Doc Rivers would not play jamal as the team has shown that although he is not a great defender he really isnt hurting the team defensively . He doesnt cut into JJ minutes as Doc goes 3 guards to finish the games as Barnes has never been a 30+ mpg player . I see people they donnt want him back for the playoffs ? JJ back spasms or Barnes tweaks his hamstring then what ?
The one thing we should be careful about here is why Jamal is one of the 4th quarter leading scorers. The automatic assumption is that "well they rely on him to be a scorer to close out games". This is partially true, but raw numbers wise, it is because he plays the most minutes on the team in the 4th. This is because if the Clippers are up 20 going into the 4th, Jamal will stay in with the bench before the super end of bench guys come in. So Part of it is that, yes, offensively he's helpful, but also that if the team has a blowout and the bench is in, Jamal generally would get extra minutes playing with them and have a very high usage.
If we look at per 36 minute 4th quarter production, we see that Chris Paul is the teams leader, though I don't think that was hard to guess. Jamal is 2nd, now I don't know what Jamal's numbers are in close games as of course his volume numbers are helped by playing 4th quarter minutes with bench units, but he's still doing a great job in volume and efficiency either way.
Now looking at the shooting, Redick doesn't look so hot, so this is where you can argue for "okay, don't use the 3 guard lineup, but Jamal should get the nod over Redick". What we should pay attention to though is that Matt Barnes has a .598 TS% in the 4th and is the most efficient of all three, so should he be sitting?
Well Barnes doesn't have a high scoring rate, and his 3PT shooting in the 4th isn't as good as through the whole game, but from lineup data, looks like the defensive contributions more than make up, and the team offense is good with him on.
The next thing is to ask whether the 3 guard lineup actually does better than the lineups with Barnes.
Out of all the lineups that play significant minutes, the 3 guard lineup the worst defensive lineups for the Clippers by far and doesn't have enough of an offensive advantage to make up for it. Starters are best on defense, followed by starters with Hawes in for Blake.
What about in the 4th quarter
Here we actually see that isolating for the 4th quarter, the lineups with one of the SG's and Barnes have produced better on offense AND on defense. We also see a lot of those bench lineups with Jamal that were ending blowout type games, and they produced on offense. Next we see something odd that despite Jamal's overall 4th quarter numbers being better shooting wise than Redick, the teams best NetRtg from the top 3 lineups in the 4th quarter comes from the starting lineup due to much superior defense.
There's the outlier lineup of 3 guards a small forward and DJ that kills it, but with 8 games and 26 mins, we might not take too much from that. That same lineup with Griffin instead of DJ is killer on offense, but awful on defense.
One thing seems to keep repeating itself, and that is that the lineups with Barnes at SF just seem to be better. Clippers get enough shot creating from Redick running around, CP and Blake that the offense is fine. The ones with Jamal again are also better, but the ones with Jamal and Redick are just not good on defense. Defensively, certainly we see an advantage with the Redick/Barnes lineup, which some people would say supports their thoughts. Individually though, Jamal outproduces Redick in the 4th in all aspects. How much the minutes playing against "scrubs" in blowout games could maybe pad his numbers, I don't know, but not enough where he should be worse or anything either.
So it's not necessarily an easy decision. I think you could play it by matchups and situations in terms of Redick or Crawford, but I would personally say that 3 guard is not the best choice by any means.
First of all I just want to say what a great post!
From what i read I get the impression that the best possible 4th quarter lineup is Barnes and the starters and then either JJ or Jamal at SG (depending who is hotter on the day?).
When CP, Blake and JJ or JC are on the floor there is no way we should be struggling for points so I don't see the need for the 3-Guard lineup.
PS how do we get Doc to read this? lol
Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
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Re: Let's Discuss Jamal Crawford
chitownsports4ever wrote:LACtdom wrote:
You're right, my argument was voiced terribly and inconsistently. There is no doubt about Jamal's talent.
I haven't checked the stats but I would guess that JJ is a better catch and shoot player than Jamal and is arguably better defensively so it would make sense to have JJ as our SG late in the 4th.
The question is, are we that desperate for points that we are willing to sacrifice Barnes' energetic defense for a slightly higher catch and shoot percentage?
You are not just sacrificing catch and shoot percentage . Crawford shoots the 2nd most fts on the team is the second best ballhandler , the only other perimeter player that can create his own shot consistently , and above all else he allows Rivers to dictate match ups against certain teams . The Clippers have one of highest 4 quarter +/- in the league and Crawford was the leading 4th quarter scorer when he got hurt the Clippers are top ten in both defense and offensive efficiency in the 4th quarter . There is really no rational reason that Doc Rivers would not play jamal as the team has shown that although he is not a great defender he really isnt hurting the team defensively . He doesnt cut into JJ minutes as Doc goes 3 guards to finish the games as Barnes has never been a 30+ mpg player . I see people they donnt want him back for the playoffs ? JJ back spasms or Barnes tweaks his hamstring then what ?
The problem lies when Jamal is 'cold' during the 4th and Rivers still plays him. If you watch closely you will see how many points we give up just because of Jamal's poor one on one effort. He is definitely hurting the team defensively.
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