The Andrew Wiggins Thread

Post #661 » by **C.lupus** » Wed Apr 1, 2015 11:28 pm

I think his relatively high minutes plus his relatively low rebounding.

AQuintus · Post #662 » by **AQuintus** » Wed Apr 1, 2015 11:37 pm

C.lupus wrote:I think his relatively high minutes plus his relatively low rebounding.

The relatively low assist % hurts him, too.

A good comparison is with rookie LeBron.

LeBron played 39.5 mpg compared to Wiggins' 35.7 mpg and had a 18.3 PER compared to Wiggins' 13.3 per.

Beyond that,

TRB%: LeBron - 7.6 vs. Wiggins - 7.0
AST%: LeBron - 27.8 vs. Wiggins - 8.9

Zeitgeister · Post #663 » by **Zeitgeister** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:01 am

Devilzsidewalk wrote:I could probably research this, but some of you probably know off-hand: what is it statistically that makes his PER so low? Is it because he plays so many minutes?

Low rebound rate for his minutes, his scoring volume is good but not great and he's not been efficient scoring the ball over the course of the whole season.

AQuintus · Post #664 » by **AQuintus** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:22 am

Zeitgeister wrote:Low rebound rate for his minutes,

Like I posted above, his rebounding rate is only slightly lower than LeBron's rookie rebounding rate, and it's only 0.1 percent lower than Durant's rookie number (he had a 15.5 PER).

his scoring volume is good but not great

This is part of the problem as well. As long as a player has a TS% over a certain threshold (something really low, under .500, IIRC), then every shot they take increases their PER slightly.

and he's not been efficient scoring the ball over the course of the whole season.

This isn't the problem. LeBron had a 18.3 PER as a rookie despite having a .499 TS%.

Zeitgeister · Post #665 » by **Zeitgeister** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:32 am

AQuintus wrote:
Zeitgeister wrote:Low rebound rate for his minutes,

Like I posted above, his rebounding rate is only slightly lower than LeBron's rookie rebounding rate, and it's only 0.1 percent lower than Durant's rookie number (he had a 15.5 PER).

his scoring volume is good but not great

This is part of the problem as well. As long as a player has a TS% over a certain threshold (something really low, under .500, IIRC), then every shot they take increases their PER slightly.

and he's not been efficient scoring the ball over the course of the whole season.

This isn't the problem. LeBron had a 18.3 PER as a rookie despite having a .499 TS%.

The volume and efficiency are tied, they are both related to the effectiveness that someone has at scoring, no reason to separate the two. If Wiggins was more efficient but with the same volume, his PER would improve quite a bit and that was my point. His efficiency isn't good enough for the volume that he has.

AQuintus · Post #666 » by **AQuintus** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:44 am

Zeitgeister wrote:The volume and efficiency are tied, they are both related to the effectiveness that someone has at scoring, no reason to separate the two.

There is when you're talking about the PER formula.

If Wiggins was more efficient but with the same volume, his PER would improve quite a bit and that was my point. His efficiency isn't good enough for the volume that he has.

If his volume increased significantly at the same efficiency, his PER would also improve quite a bit.

PER has been said to reward inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:

"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."

Zeitgeister · Post #667 » by **Zeitgeister** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:54 am

AQuintus wrote:
Zeitgeister wrote:The volume and efficiency are tied, they are both related to the effectiveness that someone has at scoring, no reason to separate the two.

There is when you're talking about the PER formula.

If Wiggins was more efficient but with the same volume, his PER would improve quite a bit and that was my point. His efficiency isn't good enough for the volume that he has.

If his volume increased significantly at the same efficiency, his PER would also improve quite a bit.

PER has been said to reward inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:

"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."

You seem to want to argue about something but we share the same position and that's what I'm trying to tell you. Read the last sentence that I wrote, his volume isn't good enough for the efficiency that he has. If he had the same efficiency but higher volume, his PER would go up and that is perfectly logical that it should. His efficiency isn't good enough for the volume that he has.

guest81 · Post #668 » by **guest81** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 5:26 pm

To me why it isn't close between Mirotic and Wiggins is the simply how many minutes each has played. Wiggins has played 2685 minutes and Mirotic only 1492.

So just to break it down, Wiggins would have to stop playing today, AND Mirotic would have to play 60! more games at his current minutes average, just to tie Wiggins. So even if the Bulls went 7 games in every series, he would still be 25 games short.

Wiggins passed Mirtoics total minutes sometime early January, so pretty much 3 months ago

Post #669 » by **Klomp** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 8:37 pm

Too bad he couldn't connect on this one

packforfreedom · Post #670 » by **packforfreedom** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 9:00 pm

it seems after the dunks on Gobert he's really into posterizing, which is awesome.

AttackTheRack · Post #671 » by **AttackTheRack** » Fri Apr 3, 2015 3:14 am

That missed dunk was incredible. He was way way up there. Wiggles is going to throw down some of the BEST IN GAME DUNKS OF ALL TIME! Ya, I said it. Like Jordan swooping in and smashing the backboard against those whomevers back in the day-level. Who's with me?

Get'em nest time, brother.

Hindenburg · Post #672 » by **Hindenburg** » Fri Apr 3, 2015 9:29 pm

Pretty good rookie year for Andrew. I think next year he can definitely take a leap forward. What do you guys think Wolves management must do to help Wiggins develop?

My thoughts:

- Trade Kevin Martin (guy chucks 20 shots every game, plays in Wiggins' position, barely passes or plays defense, is 32 years old)

- Trade Pekovic (guy is a blackhole on offense, not a very good defender, slows the offense down, give his minutes to Dieng)

- Get rid of Anthony Bennett (terrible at pretty much everything, waste of cap space)

- Get some 3&D guys to stretch the floor

- Make Wiggins the 1st option on offense

I think with those adjustments + Wiggins bulking up a bit during off-season and working on his jumper/3 point shot, we could see Andrew averaging 20ppg 5rbs 3asts next year with good defense

Getting a good pick in the draft, the future is looking good in Minny

PZiv · Post #673 » by **PZiv** » Sat Apr 4, 2015 1:57 am

Hindenburg wrote:Pretty good rookie year for Andrew. I think next year he can definitely take a leap forward. What do you guys think Wolves management must do to help Wiggins develop?

My thoughts:

- Trade Kevin Martin (guy chucks 20 shots every game, plays in Wiggins' position, barely passes or plays defense, is 32 years old)

- Trade Pekovic (guy is a blackhole on offense, not a very good defender, slows the offense down, give his minutes to Dieng)

- Get rid of Anthony Bennett (terrible at pretty much everything, waste of cap space)

- Get some 3&D guys to stretch the floor

- Make Wiggins the 1st option on offense

I think with those adjustments + Wiggins bulking up a bit during off-season and working on his jumper/3 point shot, we could see Andrew averaging 20ppg 5rbs 3asts next year with good defense

Getting a good pick in the draft, the future is looking good in Minny

- I'd trade him to anyone who would give us 2017 1st pick for Martin
- Dieng isn't cappable of starting minutes as C yet, which is proven this season. Trade Pekovic for a starting C(or position of need if we draft C), not for Dieng's minutes
- The question is, what else gets traded with Bennett or who do we take ? Raptors would probably consider him, but they would charge us something
- They're becoming more expensive than starting centers nowadays, with every lottery team throwing cash at them
- That's something that has been in progress for whole year long already

You are missing the key issue here: How do we handle Chase Budinger? Do we trade him before he breaks up or cling to his last year on contract?

Mattya · Post #674 » by **Mattya** » Sat Apr 4, 2015 5:45 pm

I swear the irony in the rookie impressions thread is just mind bottling. Someone was talking about how well Andrew Wiggins was drawing fouls, and then one of the Philly fans was talking about how that poster needed to be careful about recency bias. Of all the posters to be talking about recency bias.. I mean, really?

Dleavitt24 · Post #675 » by **Dleavitt24** » Wed Apr 8, 2015 2:54 pm

Looks like wigs caught up to K love in ppg. Not bad for a rook.

34 Andrew Wiggins, SF MIN 77 35.8 16.5 .438 .319 .754

35. Kawhi Leonard, SF SA 60 31.5 16.5 .479 .357 .791

36 Kevin Love, PF CLE 71 34.1 16.4 .432 .362 .803

yeshandcheck · Post #676 » by **yeshandcheck** » Wed Apr 8, 2015 4:00 pm

Aquinist and Zeitgeist are making my head hurt with the math. I just wish Wiggs would try, and that is an easy formula to figure out. 2 eyes + TV = not trying.

Dleavitt24 · Post #677 » by **Dleavitt24** » Wed Apr 8, 2015 10:20 pm

I kinda wish he would try too but that same time if I put myself in his position id probably wouldn't be going 100% out there either. Long season, lots of minutes, so many injuries, and nothing to play for other than to not get injured. I did however enjoy when gay blocked his shot last night wigs came right back and blocked his. We do know when he wants to turn it on he can. Cant wait for how the start of next season goes for him.

Post #678 » by **Klomp** » Thu Apr 9, 2015 4:55 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Twolves_PR/status/586209458566627328[/tweet]

AttackTheRack · Post #679 » by **AttackTheRack** » Fri Apr 10, 2015 4:19 am

Honestly, how close can he get to those numbers next year? Seriously. If he gets 20 shots each and every night - in the post, stepbacks, put backs, alley oops, 3s (right, Flip?), FTs - how much can he score? Gotta' go for 20+ next year, right? Nobody else on this sorry ass team is more worthy of gettin' shawts than him. This is his team now. Everybody knows it.

Hindenburg · Post #680 » by **Hindenburg** » Sat Apr 11, 2015 2:56 am

AttackTheRack wrote:Honestly, how close can he get to those numbers next year? Seriously. If he gets 20 shots each and every night - in the post, stepbacks, put backs, alley oops, 3s (right, Flip?), FTs - how much can he score? Gotta' go for 20+ next year, right? Nobody else on this sorry ass team is more worthy of gettin' shawts than him. This is his team now. Everybody knows it.

I think he can put up around 20 ppg next year. Andrew has improved tremendously throughout the season. If he keeps putting in the work and bulks up a bit, I don't see why he can't get 20ppg

If the Wolves rework the roster to suit his development then we could see Wiggins putting up some really nice numbers next year