How EE, Rajai Davis killed Jon Lester's pickoff move

[Rhettmatic]

Fun read here:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-j ... imulation/

It took two players to send Jon Lester’s pickoff move into premature retirement.

Rajai Davis was the mastermind. In a game against the Red Sox on April 30, 2013, the then–Blue Jays outfielder — who would steal 45 bases at an 88 percent success rate by the end of that season — led off the fifth with a single and then monopolized Lester’s attention by taking leads like this:



Lester threw to first twice before making his first pitch to Jose Bautista, who was batting behind Davis. Then Lester pitched out. “Nothing doing,” Don Orsillo said on the NESN feed, completing the broadcaster’s traditional call-and-response. With a 1-0 count, Lester threw over again. On 1-1, Davis broke for second, but Bautista popped out, bringing up Davis’s accomplice in the pickoff-move murder: Edwin Encarnacion.

You really have to click and continue reading, but the EE homer .gif is worth it.

[CrookedJ]

PARROT!

[Geddy]

Interesting read, but I wonder now if he will start to work on some new pickoff move.

[Relentless88]

I always thought LHPs had an advantage with pickoffs...guess not.

[Graham's Cracker]

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discussed this earlier on the Effectively Wild Podcast. Interesting that Ben actually ran the #'s through the sim programs. Thanks for sharing. Effectively, he'll still be a good pitcher, however, there will be definite times when it can be exploited.

If I'm an opponent - especially during expanded rosters - I fill the end of my bench with pure speed guys. You could effectively take a lead off or 1 out walk/single and turn it in to a fairly easily manufactured run. At the cost of losing a regular from your starting lineup. However, if Lester is only going to give up 2-3 runs per game on average, it might be worth the exchange.

[Schad]

I always thought LHPs had an advantage with pickoffs...guess not.

They have a large advantage in holding runners, but refusing to throw over in any circumstance negates it; in Lester's case, all he ends up with is a better view of the guy about to steal second uncontested.