The Death of the Bull's Jumbo Lineup

[Stratmaster]

Last night people were raving about the 'switch' finally being thrown. You know who wasn't on the floor during any of that 3rd quarter run?

Nikola Mirotic.

This is actually part of why I started this thread. The Bulls were playing better without Niko. I don't believe it is because of Niko's skillset. I believe the Bulls play better with only 2 bigs on the court. And I am not suggesting that should leave Taj as a DNP or garbage player. matchups...matchups...matchups... The idea that Niko (or if it were taj) should be guaranteed minutes at the 3 because we have too many 4/5's isn't conducive to winning in the playoffs.

[Rerisen]

At least now Chicago can trade Taj (or Noah or Gasol) for a longer term piece for when it might matter.

When will that be, 3 years when Rose is gone? Seems to be your line of thought if you just called this season done already.

[DanTown8587]

How about these two

1. He has no where close to the experience that Mike does playing that position on both ends
2. He's no where near the shooter
3. He has no idea when to cut, where to cut, to get himself or his teammates open

That's small solace considering what Mike did (or didn't do) last year against the Wizards.

But again, Mike Dunleavy is still going to play SF either way! And probably the same minutes too. He isn't going to start closing, because Thibs hasn't closed with him all year.

Thibs would then just play Kirk more in all likelihood. That's who were getting instead of Niko, more Hinrich. Bet anything.

Thibs just gave Snell a DNP 2 games ago, does that show trust in him?

We're having two discussions it seems

1. What SHOULD Thibs do
2. What WILL Thibs do

If you want to talk about the should, fine, the will do is easy

- Snell and/or Niko will get buried in the playoffs
- Niko won't play the 4. Ever.
- Kirk and Brooks will get spot minutes next to Rose too

[Rerisen]

This is actually part of why I started this thread. The Bulls were playing better without Niko. I don't believe it is because of Niko's skillset. I believe the Bulls play better with only 2 bigs on the court. And I am not suggesting that should leave Taj as a DNP or garbage player. matchups...matchups...matchups... The idea that Niko (or if it were taj) should be guaranteed minutes at the 3 because we have too many 4/5's isn't conducive to winning in the playoffs.

Yes, we have a lot of good combos we can use at the 4/5. Unfortunately not elite like it was predicted, but good.

I'm not sure how great the overhead Niko adds to that. I'm sure some, especially if Thibs would play matchups smartly, but he virtually never does. Other than riding hot units, he mostly runs the rotation like punching a clock and the result has been the idea of mixing and matching all our 4 bigs to maximize their skills night to night, has fallen on its face.

We can choose Niko some nights, choose Taj some nights, play with their minutes up and down, but the reality is, on court wise, we aren't that much better off with 4 bigs than 3. Unless someone gets hurt.

Cleveland only has 3 regular bigs, but it seems from a practical standpoint, they accomplish about the same value as our 4.

[Rerisen]

- Niko won't play the 4. Ever.

I don't see that. It's not what I'm arguing for and I don't think Thibs is that stubborn.

Unless the Bulls win every game, they should not lose a playoff series before we go to that option at some point.

Heck, go to it in Game 1 if the other bigs aren't getting it done. I'm just interested more in the 3 side of the discussion, I'm not happy enough with the remaining alternative to just write Mirotic off there. I think potential remains for better results, esp with Rose back.

Niko should see some 4 time every game imo.

[DanTown8587]

This is actually part of why I started this thread. The Bulls were playing better without Niko. I don't believe it is because of Niko's skillset. I believe the Bulls play better with only 2 bigs on the court. And I am not suggesting that should leave Taj as a DNP or garbage player. matchups...matchups...matchups... The idea that Niko (or if it were taj) should be guaranteed minutes at the 3 because we have too many 4/5's isn't conducive to winning in the playoffs.

Yes, we have a lot of good combos we can use at the 4/5. Unfortunately not elite like it was predicted, but good.

I'm not sure how great the overhead Niko adds to that. I'm sure some, especially if Thibs would play matchups smartly, but he virtually never does. Other than riding hot units, he mostly runs the rotation like punching a clock and the result has been the idea of mixing and matching all our 4 bigs to maximize their skills night to night, has fallen on its face.

We can choose Niko some nights, choose Taj some nights, play with their minutes up and down, but the reality is, on court wise, we aren't that much better off with 4 bigs than 3. Unless someone gets hurt.

Cleveland only has 3 regular bigs, but it seems from a practical standpoint, they accomplish about the same value as our 4.

For the record, the Bulls have two constants in at the 1-2-3 spots: Rose and Butler. If it was me, you'd close or play only these four lineups

Rose - Brooks - Butler - Gibson - Noah
Rose - Butler - Dunleavy - Mirotic - Noah/Gasol
Rose - Butler - Snell - Mirotic/Gibson - Gasol
Rose - Butler - Snell - Gibson - Noah (TURTLE)

[Stratmaster]

Let's also look at the remaining wing situation with no Niko involved.

Butler 39
Snell 24
Dunleavy 24
Hinrich 9

Something like this? God help us. That is some pedestrian level talent playing a lot of playoff minutes.

I hope Mike shows up this year, last year he did for 1 game. Tony Snell has a negative PER in his playoff career so far. 22% TS. Seems dependable. Kirk Hinrich, well that's just 9 minutes of net negative the majority of the time. And those are the 6 minutes you are offloading Niko for in likeilhood, its not even Dunleavy or Snell, its probably for Kirk Hinrich to play more.

What is Niko's PER in the playoffs, and how many playoff games has he shown up in? (rhetorical question for emphasis).

MDJ had a 24.7 PER in the playoffs the year before last, and has a 17.9 average PER in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. His lifetime TS% in the playoffs is .609. Now...you of all people know how little stock I put in those stats...but that is the argument you are making.

[Rerisen]

For the record, the Bulls have two constants in at the 1-2-3 spots: Rose and Butler. If it was me, you'd close or play only these four lineups

Rose - Brooks - Butler - Gibson - Noah
Rose - Butler - Dunleavy - Mirotic - Noah/Gasol
Rose - Butler - Snell - Mirotic/Gibson - Gasol
Rose - Butler - Snell - Gibson - Noah (TURTLE)

I think the major screwup we are all trying to work around is Thibs sticking with Gasol/Noah all year.

A lot of these rotation issues would probably shake out more easily if those two didn't start.

[DanTown8587]

- Niko won't play the 4. Ever.

I don't see that. It's not what I'm arguing for and I don't think Thibs is that stubborn.

Unless the Bulls win every game, they should not lose a playoff series before we go to that option at some point.

Heck, go to it in Game 1 if the other bigs aren't getting it done. I'm just interested more in the 3 side of the discussion, I'm not happy enough with the remaining alternative to just write Mirotic off there. I think potential remains for better results, esp with Rose back.

Niko should see some 4 time every game imo.

Is he playing the four now? What makes you think when Thibs gets to unshackle his minutes restriction on Noah that Niko gets more minutes in the 4 spot?

[Rerisen]

What is Niko's PER in the playoffs, and how many playoff games has he shown up in? (rhetorical question for emphasis).

MDJ had a 24.7 PER in the playoffs the year before last, and has a 17.9 average PER in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. His lifetime TS% in the playoffs is .609. Now...you of all people know how little stock I put in those stats...but that is the argument you are making.

That's his career, the guy is 34 years old and it shows.

Last year he was overmatched by Ariza and got outplayed on both ends, his stats were ok because of one blistering game. But he was pretty bad in all the the others, shooting like 33%. He shouldn't be a starter ideallly. As the matchup talent increases in the playoffs, his limitations will get exposed more.

Most games he gets to hide thanks to Butler taking the tougher defensive assignment, playoffs that isn't always the case. (How much does that take out of Jimmy? We never ask, but be nice to have a SF that can guard his position).

I guess the plan is let JR Smith open outside and hope for the best, because Mike doesn't have the athleticism to guard him close on the perimeter. But that's the matchup, MDJ on a SG, because Butler has to do the job on LeBron.

[Rerisen]

Is he playing the four now? What makes you think when Thibs gets to unshackle his minutes restriction on Noah that Niko gets more minutes in the 4 spot?

Well about 4 minutes last night. Its not entirely out of the picture and Thibs has to know what a stretch 4 is and what it can mean when you need a change of pace.

[DanTown8587]

Is he playing the four now? What makes you think when Thibs gets to unshackle his minutes restriction on Noah that Niko gets more minutes in the 4 spot?

Well about 4 minutes last night. Its not entirely out of the picture and Thibs has to know what a stretch 4 is and what it can mean when you need a change of pace.

Minutes by Gasol+Gibson+Noah (since they don't play together, you know that these guys are accounting for solely minutes at the 4 or 5)

Noah - 27:31
Gibson - 33:32
Gasol - 34:10
TOTAL: 95: 13
REMAINDER: :47

[Rerisen]

Minutes by Gasol+Gibson+Noah

Noah - 27:31
Gibson - 33:32
Gasol - 34:10
TOTAL: 95: 13
REMAINDER: :47

I know we had one look of it, apparently shorter than I remember. It did happen almost 10 minutes vs Cleveland though.

Nevertheless, I predict we will see Niko at the PF in the playoffs. Maybe not every game, but more than 47 seconds.

[Stratmaster]

What is Niko's PER in the playoffs, and how many playoff games has he shown up in? (rhetorical question for emphasis).

MDJ had a 24.7 PER in the playoffs the year before last, and has a 17.9 average PER in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. His lifetime TS% in the playoffs is .609. Now...you of all people know how little stock I put in those stats...but that is the argument you are making.

That's his career, the guy is 34 years old and it shows.

Last year he was overmatched by Ariza and got outplayed on both ends, his stats were ok because of one blistering game. But he was pretty bad in all the the others, shooting like 33%. He shouldn't be a starter ideallly. As the matchup talent increases in the playoffs, his limitations will get exposed more.

Most games he gets to hide thanks to Butler taking the tougher defensive assignment, playoffs that isn't always the case. (How much does that take out of Jimmy? We never ask, but be nice to have a SF that can guard his position).

I guess the plan is let JR Smith open outside and hope for the best, because Mike doesn't have the athleticism to guard him close on the perimeter. But that's the matchup, MDJ on a SG, because Butler has to do the job on LeBron.

No...that is in the last 3 seasons of his career.

I agree MDJ shouldn't be a starter. Nor should Snell. Nor should Niko be at the 3. But it si what it is and the Bulls get beaten badly when playing 3 bigs. They can't seem to take advantage of the rebounding advantage (but then Snell and MDJ are reasonable rebounders for outside shooting 3's), can't keep up with teams who run the court and can't close on outside shooters.

And this isn't a Bulls vs. Cavs matchup discussion. They aren't playing the Cavs first round. They likely won't play them 2nd round.

[coldfish]

At least now Chicago can trade Taj (or Noah or Gasol) for a longer term piece for when it might matter.

When will that be, 3 years when Rose is gone? Seems to be your line of thought if you just called this season done already.

Yeah. I kind of think that this incarnation of the Bulls is toast. We both know Thibs is going to take the fall when the team doesn't make it this year. Then when it still doesn't work next year with the same players, the team will start selling the fanbase on "the 2017 plan". Might as well trade Gibson for a young guy to go along with . . . . Butler? McDermott?

[Rerisen]

They can't seem to take advantage of the rebounding advantage (but then Snell and MDJ are reasonable rebounders for outside shooting 3's), can't keep up with teams who run the court and can't close on outside shooters.

And we do all those things with Mike? He doesn't add anymore athleticism.

Snell has potential to help some of those things, but his mind goes on vacation a lot.

I don't know how we can condemn lineups based on Aaron Brooks running things, vs Derrick Rose.

I will say the Rose / Mirotic pairing with Niko specifically at the 4 has tremendous upside potential, but unfortunately we've tried it jack all this year. So little late for Thibs to start throwing a hail mary with it in the playoffs.

[Mech Engineer]

And we do all those things with Mike? He doesn't add anymore athleticism.

Snell has potential to help some of those things, but his mind goes on vacation a lot.

I don't know how we can condemn lineups based on Aaron Brooks running things, vs Derrick Rose.

I will say the Rose / Mirotic pairing with Niko specifically at the 4 has tremendous upside potential, but unfortunately we've tried it jack all this year. So little late for Thibs to start throwing a hail mary with it in the playoffs.

The second statement is answered by your first statement. By the time Niko got used to even playing, Derrick was in and out. Derrick is still struggling to play with Pau. Where was the time to play with Niko?

There is zero analysis/judgment you can make with Brooks as your PG.

The PG and Center are the two most important pieces of almost any team for offense/defense, IMO. Both those pieces have been missing/inconsistent this season.You are prone to making all kinds of bad evaluation because of not having Derrick/using Aaron even when Derrick is no Chris Paul or John Stockton.

[Rerisen]

If the Bulls get bounced, everyone isn't automatically going to the fire Thibs bandwagon cuz of Niko at the 4 right?

I hope not, because unless Rose or Noah pick it up, that won't matter too much.

The FO dealt Thibs a messy roster, no way around it, now they are going to burn him for it.

[musiqsoulchild]

If the Bulls get bounced, everyone isn't automatically going to the fire Thibs bandwagon cuz of Niko at the 4 right?

I hope not, because unless Rose or Noah pick it up, that won't matter too much.

The FO dealt Thibs a messy roster, no way around it, now they are going to burn him for it.

How can you say that? I mean you can, but how can you reasonably say that.

If Thibs wont play Snell, or will play Kirk more than he should....

AND

Rose, Noah are injured. Taj, Jimmy, Dunleavy also miss considerable time...

How can you end up with: The FO dealt Thibs a messy roster?

You could say that in 2012 and 2013 and you'd be somewhat right. But in the 2014 season, that doesnt hold.

[TheSuzerain]

Mirotic produces less as a SF than Dunleavy or Snell.

And Derrick Rose produces worse than Aaron Brooks this year, I guess start Aaron Brooks in the playoffs?

It's the same principle with Niko. We aren't likely to win with that kind of SF production, not without MVP Rose.

So it comes down to you have 3 subpar choices so far, who are you betting on can do better than they have all year? I'm betting on talent, Mirotic. If the upside doesn't deliver, which includes Noah, Rose, and Niko, we go home anyway.

You guys are worried about raising the team's floor and that is irrelevant in the playoffs, its the ceiling that matters.

There is obvious evidence that Rose could possibly excel at PG.

There is basically no evidence than Niko can do so at SF.