The State of the Pistons

tmorgan · Post #1 » by **tmorgan** » Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:36 pm

We have a few games left, I know. It's also quite obvious from the tone of some of my other posts that I'm getting frustrated with this board, and that's not helpful, either. Instead, here's my outlook on where we are. I'm excited about the 7th-9th pick and what will be available, and I'm hoping we can attract a quality free agent or two. I think we're a .500 team next season, I really do, and that's primarily because of SVG and the faith I have in him.

PG:

I prefer current Reggie Jackson to the Brandon Jennings we had before he got hurt, acknowledging that he, Jennings, greatly improved this year. This reason is simple -- Jackson maximizes our prime asset, Andre Drummond. Jennings is a shooter and an able creator ON THE PERIMETER, but he's not capable of penetrating consistently in the half court. In transition, it's a wash, but in the half court, Jackson is far better at getting his teammates, primarily Drummond, high quality looks. I assume Jennings' value is too low to be worth trading, and he's expiring, so I hope he comes back some time next year and either establishes some value so we can trade him for something we need, or becomes a scoring third guard that can push tempo. It's also possible that this injury makes him a non-NBA player, because quickness is all he had.

As for Dinwiddie, he's worth keeping and developing. I don't think his ceiling is particularly high, and I'd certainly be open to dealing him for something more essential, but there's a good chance he'll be a quality backup PG in a year, with a small chance of something more. He also has the size to play the 2, so if he really does take a step forward, he'll help in multiple roles. That shot, though... at some point it has to start going in.

SG:

KCP is maddening. He took a big step forward in terms of aggressiveness on the drive and with his handle, but his shot is still so, so streaky. A good NBA 2 needs confidence, and I think KCP's willingness to shoot even if he's missing is a good thing, but he's lost us a lot of games with his "bad KCP" 5-16 shooting nights. I think his defense is a bit overrated, too, but it's still pretty good, which is impressive for a young player. Overall, I think we need to give him at least one more year before looking elsewhere, because we aren't a serious contender next year no matter what we do this off-season.

Meeks was disappointing. For the production he gave us, he was certainly overpaid, but he has two more years and likely isn't going anywhere. We can hope it was lingering injury issues that slowed him down, but I'm not sure that's it. He could be a guy like Augustin that needs consistent minutes to play his best, and we definitely can't give him that and build towards our future. I'd love to move him along, but I doubt that happens. There's a solid chance he's better next year.

SF:

There's not much to say here. A huge need. Singler was only worthwhile on his good shooting nights, and he didn't always have them. We got about what I expected out of Caron Butler, and if he's really helping on the leadership side of things, it's worth keeping him around. Quincy Miller, even if he really is a future NBA player, isn't helping soon, but he's cheap, and I like our 12th man to be a guy with potential. Gigi never showed anything or got much of a chance. Prince better be gone, as I'm sure he'd like to be. This needs to be our draft pick, whether Monroe stays or not. I assume Winslow is gone, but Johnson or Oubre would be fine. Heck, I'd even be open to trading down and taking Dekker. I think Winslow is going to be a star, so moving up to 3rd (or higher) would be huge for us.

PF:

I have to list Monroe here, even though that's not what he is. I'm operating under the assumption Monroe is leaving. He may not be a brain surgeon, but for a NBA player, Monroe is a smart guy. He's not particularly outspoken, but I'm pretty sure he's not the kind of player that lets his agent lead him around on a leash. In my opinion, he took the QO not because the Pistons sucked, but because he wants to play center and have the paint to himself. I think we can offer him a boatload of money AND an extra year and he'll still leave, because if it was about the security, he wouldn't have played this year on the qualifying offer. I just can't see any scenario, outside of trading Andre Drummond, in which Monroe stays. It's too bad, as he's our best offensive player and a capable defender down low, a good defensive rebounder, and a really good passer for a big man. He'll do well elsewhere.

I do like Tolliver and hope we keep him around. We're going to need to fill this void, though, preferably with someone with a little range. I actually don't want a stretch 4 such as Ryan Anderson, I want a good defender with a reliable jumper from anywhere outside the paint. There are actually quite a few players like that -- it doesn't need to be Ibaka or prime KG -- just a solid guy that can give Drummond more room to do his thing and Jackson more space to drive in.

C:

Drummond is the future. His game is incredibly unrefined on both ends, but he did make some progress, both offensively and defensively. He's 21. He needs time and an environment that benefits him. As I stated before, I think Jackson is better than Jennings for that, and Monroe isn't a great fit, either. Given the learning curve so far, which has been good but not great, it's reasonable to think Drummond is going to continue to improve for another three years yet, so we're going to have to invest in him before he's entirely worth the return. That's OK. His physical gifts are insane, and he's a good kid.

Joel Anthony has played really well as a backup, but I doubt he can handle the minutes we'll need here if Monroe leaves.

Overall:

We're in a good place, but it could be better. There was so much disruption this year that it's difficult to get a solid handle on where we stand. I have my opinions, and other folks obviously disagree. A number of people, though, have stated something I strongly agree with: Our core, in order of importance, is 1) Dre, 2) SVG, and 3) Jackson. It's nice to have a head coach you believe in. He's not proven as a GM, but he's done mostly smart things so far. We're young, we're reasonably talented, and the guy in charge has a plan of some kind. We're certainly in a much better place now than we have been for the last five years.

jjaymes · Post #2 » by **jjaymes** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 12:15 am

Very nice assessment. I couldn't have said it better myself. I am definitely all for going with Jackson instead of Jennings going forward. He can consistently get into the paint and create for others and I really like how well he finishes at the rim as well. I really like the chemistry he has developed with Dre and KCP over a short amount of time. I really like Moose too but to me it is clear that he is better off at Center instead of PF. I am excited to see how well Jackson does after a full training camp as well as some upgrades at both forward spots.

Defor · Post #3 » by **Defor** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:19 am

I think its pretty much right on too , with the possible exception of KCP. I don't really count his first year as a developement year because of the terrible way the team played with Smith in the lineup. The coaching at the time further hinder him as the only person who seemed to respond to Cheeks was Jennings. This was his first year with a good coach and a stable enviroment, and to be honest that was only after Smith was waived .

DBC10 · Post #4 » by **DBC10** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 1:34 am

Nice write up. I completely agree. I think Monroe will leave regardless of what we do or if we do offer him money to stay. We have a giant and alarming hole at SF and to the same extent, at the PF and a younger backup C spot once Monroe leaves. This off-season could see us in a completely overhauled roster, even more so than the RJ trade.

Defor wrote:I think its pretty much right on too , with the possible exception of KCP. I don't really count his first year as a developement year because of the terrible way the team played with Smith in the lineup. The coaching at the time further hinder him as the only person who seemed to respond to Cheeks was Jennings. This was his first year with a good coach and a stable enviroment, and to be honest that was only after Smith was waived .

I like this too. Essentially, this was KCP's first full year getting the trial by fire approach which I highly am for when it comes to rookies. Cheeks was awful and wanted the corpse of Billups and a turnstile Singler to play over KCP while maintaining the 3 headed monstrosity in Monroe, Smith, and Dre. It made no sense, and he got fired with good reason.

If KCP still is that same 12-13ppg guy with inconsistent 3-ball, then I would definitely start looking elsewhere. But even then, he's a rookie contract, and the cap spike don't account for rookies contracts yet, so they'll be incredibly valuable as the years go on. Even Dinwiddie.

Blkbrd671 · Post #5 » by **Blkbrd671** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:40 am

tmorgan wrote:We have a few games left, I know. It's also quite obvious from the tone of some of my other posts that I'm getting frustrated with this board, and that's not helpful, either. Instead, here's my outlook on where we are. I'm excited about the 7th-9th pick and what will be available, and I'm hoping we can attract a quality free agent or two. I think we're a .500 team next season, I really do, and that's primarily because of SVG and the faith I have in him.

PG:

I prefer current Reggie Jackson to the Brandon Jennings we had before he got hurt, acknowledging that he, Jennings, greatly improved this year. This reason is simple -- Jackson maximizes our prime asset, Andre Drummond. Jennings is a shooter and an able creator ON THE PERIMETER, but he's not capable of penetrating consistently in the half court. In transition, it's a wash, but in the half court, Jackson is far better at getting his teammates, primarily Drummond, high quality looks. I assume Jennings' value is too low to be worth trading, and he's expiring, so I hope he comes back some time next year and either establishes some value so we can trade him for something we need, or becomes a scoring third guard that can push tempo. It's also possible that this injury makes him a non-NBA player, because quickness is all he had.

You can't make claims about RJ based on his streak and ignore what Jennings did on his. Jennings is far more dangerous in transition and during his streak was a nightmare in the pick and roll because of his decision in the lane and finishing or drawing the foul. Defensively , he was getting tips and his hands on balls, and most definitely making a impact on both ends. If jennings were on this team, Dinwiddie becomes the new JL3. I think Jennings future on this team ended when jackson came here. RJ physically just brings more

As for Dinwiddie, he's worth keeping and developing. I don't think his ceiling is particularly high, and I'd certainly be open to dealing him for something more essential, but there's a good chance he'll be a quality backup PG in a year, with a small chance of something more. He also has the size to play the 2, so if he really does take a step forward, he'll help in multiple roles. That shot, though... at some point it has to start going in.

Dinwiddie showed a tremendous amount of promise in his rookie year. If he didn't struggle with his shot, he'd be more talked about. For the most part he takes good shots, his shot selection is mature for a rookie. and once his shooting comes around, he's going to be very dangerous. Throw in a training camp and summer league(which he didn't have). We may be looking at a guy that'll fight for PG minutes. i do believe we'll eventually have to trade him, as we'll be committed to RJ.

SG:

KCP is maddening. He took a big step forward in terms of aggressiveness on the drive and with his handle, but his shot is still so, so streaky. A good NBA 2 needs confidence, and I think KCP's willingness to shoot even if he's missing is a good thing, but he's lost us a lot of games with his "bad KCP" 5-16 shooting nights. I think his defense is a bit overrated, too, but it's still pretty good, which is impressive for a young player. Overall, I think we need to give him at least one more year before looking elsewhere, because we aren't a serious contender next year no matter what we do this off-season.

Meeks was disappointing. For the production he gave us, he was certainly overpaid, but he has two more years and likely isn't going anywhere. We can hope it was lingering injury issues that slowed him down, but I'm not sure that's it. He could be a guy like Augustin that needs consistent minutes to play his best, and we definitely can't give him that and build towards our future. I'd love to move him along, but I doubt that happens. There's a solid chance he's better next year.

Meeks will be better next year, and both SVG and MEeks think so. I do too. Missing as much time as he did in a new system and being injured will take his toll. Its no coincedence he's coming around towards the seasons end. Which is technically his january. As far as KCP, please just wait and see, all young players are streaky. He's shown tremendous development. Before this year, we all thought he had "0" handles. I've seen him cross over ppl and stick teh shot, run the transition game, and pull moves in transition. He's clearly moving in the right direciton unlike guys like MCW.

SF:

There's not much to say here. A huge need. Singler was only worthwhile on his good shooting nights, and he didn't always have them. We got about what I expected out of Caron Butler, and if he's really helping on the leadership side of things, it's worth keeping him around. Quincy Miller, even if he really is a future NBA player, isn't helping soon, but he's cheap, and I like our 12th man to be a guy with potential. Gigi never showed anything or got much of a chance. Prince better be gone, as I'm sure he'd like to be. This needs to be our draft pick, whether Monroe stays or not. I assume Winslow is gone, but Johnson or Oubre would be fine. Heck, I'd even be open to trading down and taking Dekker. I think Winslow is going to be a star, so moving up to 3rd (or higher) would be huge for us.

Demare Carrol, Crowder, will barton, Brewer. I feel like we overvalue the SF position in this offense, and SVG see's our big man as more of need.

Sort · Post #6 » by **Sort** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 3:17 pm

Jennings off the bench would be lethal if that could happen on an ego level. The truth is that offensively, Jennings is a more natural creator when he's rolling. Off the bench when he's on fire, you just ride him out and sit Jackson down. Plus Jennings and Jackson in the backcourt with Jackson having the ball offensively and guarding the two defensively gives some amazing, running, scoring, attacking pick n roll four shooters out potential. Not opposed to see what can happen there.

russkopp · Post #7 » by **russkopp** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 3:49 pm

This sums up perfectly my feelings on the team and its future. Jennings off the bench would be great but 1) will he be the same and 2) will be accept that role. Greg is gone and this becomes a huge offseason for stan, he'll have some money to spend and his first 1st round draft pick. In terms of KCP, give him time. He has written all over him another Afflalo or Middleton (a guy who puts it together once we've given up on them).

Blkbrd671 · Post #8 » by **Blkbrd671** » Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:21 pm

russkopp wrote:This sums up perfectly my feelings on the team and its future. Jennings off the bench would be great but 1) will he be the same and 2) will be accept that role. Greg is gone and this becomes a huge offseason for stan, he'll have some money to spend and his first 1st round draft pick. In terms of KCP, give him time. He has written all over him another Afflalo or Middleton (a guy who puts it together once we've given up on them).

my fear is that SVG would maximize Jennings value and w Dinwiddie in waiting it would allow him to make that move. The real problem is going to come when JEnnings starts playing so well, it doesn't make sense to bring rJ back in, and vice versa. Fact is that SVG system can be run by JL3, it can be run by almost any pg. it makes much more sense to trade jennigns, get assets and continue to ride our youth

epheisey · Post #9 » by **epheisey** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:05 am

I would have preferred Jennings over Jackson, IF healthy. But with health being a huge unknown, we have no choice but to roll with Jackson.

Monroe is gone. I think that is in part a result of Jennings going down. Had Jennings stayed healthy, we stayed winning, and didn't trade for Jackson, I could see Monroe considering returning to a playoff Pistons team.

This offseason could make or break the Andre Drummond Era. If we don't show enough, he could follow Monroe out the door. It's imperative that SVG brings in a solid crop of players this offseason via the draft and FA.

There's reason for optimism, but after so many years of futility, it's hard for me to get my hopes too high. Just when things looked like they were turning around this year, we lost our best player to an injury that will change his career. Just terrible luck. Basketball gods owe us, perhaps in the form of a top pick!

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whitehops · Post #10 » by **whitehops** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 3:22 am

epheisey wrote:This offseason could make or break the Andre Drummond Era. If we don't show enough, he could follow Monroe out the door.

Drummond would have to turn down a true max deal (assuming we offer it to him) which is 25% of the salary cap for the year the extension kicks in, regardless of what the cap was when the extension was signed. that also comes with 7.5% annual increases rather than the standard 5%. if the cap in 2017 is $90, which might be on the conservative side based on some articles I've read, his starting salary would be $22.5 million.

so Drummond would essentially have to leave a 5-year, $130 million contract on the table just to leave Detroit for less money. I doubt he does that, to be honest...

tmorgan · Post #11 » by **tmorgan** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 4:31 am

whitehops wrote:
epheisey wrote:This offseason could make or break the Andre Drummond Era. If we don't show enough, he could follow Monroe out the door.

Drummond would have to turn down a true max deal (assuming we offer it to him) which is 25% of the salary cap for the year the extension kicks in, regardless of what the cap was when the extension was signed. that also comes with 7.5% annual increases rather than the standard 5%. if the cap in 2017 is $90, which might be on the conservative side based on some articles I've read, his starting salary would be $22.5 million.

so Drummond would essentially have to leave a 5-year, $130 million contract on the table just to leave Detroit for less money. I doubt he does that, to be honest...

There's a big difference between Monroe's and Drummond's situations. This is Andre's team! SVG is moving guys around to get him room to operate, prefers a penetrating point to get him more oops, and will probably eventually design a defense to funnel drives into him (once he can actually, you know, play defense without fouling). That plus a boatload of cash plus no one playing HIS position.