Leadership, development, and promotion

[flying_mollusk]

I think your original post is still spot on and still accurate. You may just be a bit impatient. This is my favorite part of what you said:

We have no players with 4-8 years of experience. Why is that significant? That's typically where you find the prime (or early prime) of a player's career. They just got their second contract. They're probably already making a big impact. They expect to play a key role in the offense, especially on a bad team.

I still think this is the case and the key to what we are doing. We still dont have the 4-8 year guys on this team. We still have a bunch of less than 4 year guys a bunch of vets. Next season, only Vuc will enter that 4 year experience level. Maybe Harris if we keep him (which we may given what Henny said).

3 years from, Vuc, Harris, Vic, Elf and AG will all be in that 4-8 range.

[ezzzp]

Update

Looking back at this post from before the season, I don't think this plan was as effective as I had hoped.

The Magic had 8 first round draft picks on rookie contracts, plus 3 more players on rookie contracts. I don't think we ever established much of a pecking order aside from feeding Vucevic. It might have been nice to acquire one strong veteran and let everyone else fall in line from there.

Maybe it was a good learning experience for everyone. We'll see.

A wide age range of veteran presence is never a replacement for coaching leadership. A good coach would have had this team running way more smoothly. This team was a structural mess. Last year I and many others thought the organizational disaster was merely a tank strategy and perhaps a way to teach varying roles and situations to young players; but this year revealed it was just that JV flat out sucked as a head coach.

[seeingstars]

There is something fascinating about our team this season. It explains a lot of what Rob Hennigan is doing. It's also very exciting for the future.

Take a look at our roster:


Luke Ridnour (11 years)
Roy Devyn Marble (rookie)

Notice anything missing?

We have no players with 4-8 years of experience. Why is that significant? That's typically where you find the prime (or early prime) of a player's career. They just got their second contract. They're probably already making a big impact. They expect to play a key role in the offense, especially on a bad team.

The Magic roster is like a bathtub curve. We have a lot of young guys. We have aging veterans that don't expect to dominate the ball. That leaves a big void in the middle.

I believe Rob Hennigan's plan is to allow our young prospects to grow into that space without deferring to a free agent in his prime. We are going to develop our own Eric Bledsoes and Chandler Parsons, rather than buy them on the open market.

Think of it like getting promoted at work. If you want your boss's job, he needs to move up or out first. There's friction. On the other hand, our veterans are like senior management taking on a mentor. Neither side feels threatened.

This separates us from a lot of other rebuilding teams. Philly is young and committed to tanking. Milwaukee and Boston are still clogged up with weird low-tier free agents. Utah is young but just paid Gordon Hayward the max, and they expect him to perform that way.

Our team is like a greenhouse with a few wise old horticulturalists. Everyone has a chance to grow.

Leadership roles and impact are there for the taking this season. We just need to see who emerges. I can't wait to watch!

Very good point here. Quite a brilliant plan.

[Bensational]

Whilst I think you're right, it seems like coaching handed the team over to Vucevic and Oladipo pretty early on and never looked back, right or wrong.

There was plenty of room for people to jostle for a place at the top of the pecking order right from the beginning, from Vuc to Harris to Fournier to O'Quinn to Oladipo. some guys were handed that role by coaching, as we saw with Vuc, some guys earned their way there with elite skill, as we saw with Payton.

But once Oladipo returned to the court, it was obvious that he was our focus and the one our coaching staff were trying to build around. We never really deviated from that. Plays stayed the same all season long. Harris and Fournier were both forced into offball roles and made to defer to Dipo whilst he was allowed to try and figure things out. There were plenty of moments of brilliance, but plenty of forehead slapping moments, too. O'Quinn, Harkless and Nicholson were jammed on the bench and told "I don't care how much potential you've got, you need to be perfect right now. I don't care that Vuc just let Cole Aldrich score 20 points on him! I don't care that Oladipo is 2-21! You aren't them. You need to be perfect now, or you just sit here."

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

So we've backed ourselves into a corner where all we can do is think "well ****... I hope Oladipo figures out how to use screens and picks at some point, and I hope Vuc learns how to defend at some point". Because both of those things don't come naturally to those guys, and in the roles they're in, you really need them to.

[woosah]

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

So we've backed ourselves into a corner where all we can do is think "well ****... I hope Oladipo figures out how to use screens and picks at some point, and I hope Vuc learns how to defend at some point". Because both of those things don't come naturally to those guys, and in the roles they're in, you really need them to.

That makes it seem like the new coach will have to follow the old coach's direction. You mean to tell me if we get Thibs, and Thibs develops a rapport with say, Tobias that he won't use him more because we have used Dipo more the past 2 seasons? It just seems that we sort of have a built in "excuse" to say things will be different because we are getting a new coach.

[TreasureCoast]

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

So we've backed ourselves into a corner where all we can do is think "well ****... I hope Oladipo figures out how to use screens and picks at some point, and I hope Vuc learns how to defend at some point". Because both of those things don't come naturally to those guys, and in the roles they're in, you really need them to.

That makes it seem like the new coach will have to follow the old coach's direction. You mean to tell me if we get Thibs, and Thibs develops a rapport with say, Tobias that he won't use him more because we have used Dipo more the past 2 seasons? It just seems that we sort of have a built in "excuse" to say things will be different because we are getting a new coach.

I think Hennigan and Martins saying "experianced" coach over and over again implies that we are going to hand this roster over to someone who will use it the way he sees fit. JV and JB were puppets.

[Bensational]

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

So we've backed ourselves into a corner where all we can do is think "well ****... I hope Oladipo figures out how to use screens and picks at some point, and I hope Vuc learns how to defend at some point". Because both of those things don't come naturally to those guys, and in the roles they're in, you really need them to.

That makes it seem like the new coach will have to follow the old coach's direction. You mean to tell me if we get Thibs, and Thibs develops a rapport with say, Tobias that he won't use him more because we have used Dipo more the past 2 seasons? It just seems that we sort of have a built in "excuse" to say things will be different because we are getting a new coach.

I really don't think so. I think management are probably happy with how the pieces are falling into place with this team and they'll probably look for an experienced coach who shares those beliefs, but who they think will be able to take the team to the next level. I mean, can you imagine the FO allowing Thibs to come in and say "you know what, Vuc, you're a gifted scorer, but we don't have the PF to cover your ass in the paint, so I'm gonna stick you on the bench and run with a Dedmon/Nicholson front court".

There would be a lot of locker room politics if a new coach came in and told Oladipo to defer to Payton and Tobias. Oladipo really seems to have the support of the coach, FO and team, and he's been putting in a lot of work to establish himself as a leader on this team. I mean, I can't even think of an example where a team allowed one player to step up in the pecking order over another established leader.

[Bensational]

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

So we've backed ourselves into a corner where all we can do is think "well ****... I hope Oladipo figures out how to use screens and picks at some point, and I hope Vuc learns how to defend at some point". Because both of those things don't come naturally to those guys, and in the roles they're in, you really need them to.

That makes it seem like the new coach will have to follow the old coach's direction. You mean to tell me if we get Thibs, and Thibs develops a rapport with say, Tobias that he won't use him more because we have used Dipo more the past 2 seasons? It just seems that we sort of have a built in "excuse" to say things will be different because we are getting a new coach.

I think Hennigan and Martins saying "experianced" coach over and over again implies that we are going to hand this roster over to someone who will use it the way he sees fit. JV and JB were puppets.

Experienced just means experienced. They're still gonna want someone who believes in what they're building.

[woosah]

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

So we've backed ourselves into a corner where all we can do is think "well ****... I hope Oladipo figures out how to use screens and picks at some point, and I hope Vuc learns how to defend at some point". Because both of those things don't come naturally to those guys, and in the roles they're in, you really need them to.

That makes it seem like the new coach will have to follow the old coach's direction. You mean to tell me if we get Thibs, and Thibs develops a rapport with say, Tobias that he won't use him more because we have used Dipo more the past 2 seasons? It just seems that we sort of have a built in "excuse" to say things will be different because we are getting a new coach.

I really don't think so. I think management are probably happy with how the pieces are falling into place with this team and they'll probably look for an experienced coach who shares those beliefs, but who they think will be able to take the team to the next level. I mean, can you imagine the FO allowing Thibs to come in and say "you know what, Vuc, you're a gifted scorer, but we don't have the PF to cover your ass in the paint, so I'm gonna stick you on the bench and run with a Dedmon/Nicholson front court".

There would be a lot of locker room politics if a new coach came in and told Oladipo to defer to Payton and Tobias. Oladipo really seems to have the support of the coach, FO and team, and he's been putting in a lot of work to establish himself as a leader on this team. I mean, I can't even think of an example where a team allowed one player to step up in the pecking order over another established leader.

Hmm, ok i see your position. I guess i just don't agree the Vic has established himself as the leader of the team. I see the agenda that you speak of, but I don't think he won that role. Vic, Vuc and Tobias all average pretty close to the same ppg, but none of them have shown they can carry a team, so i don't see Vic as the established leader. I could be wrong though.

I'm watching Westbrook and Durant next year for changes since RW showed all this scoring moxy in KD's absence. Of course, you have Bron pushing Wade over, but that is a special case. Stars will do that with no problem, but there are no stars on this team.

[darthcheech2000]

The original post is still relevant. Our team is still young and with a new system in place next season we should take a big step toward sustainability.

I am very happy with the progress that Oladipo has made this season, Elfrids emergence into a probable top teir PG, and Vuc keeping up his numbers after signing his long term extension.

Under Hennigan this team will never hinge on one player, minus a FA signing of the second coming of MJ. We have most of the pieces to this puzzle. This summer can't go by fast enough... and I live in New England, so I hope that illustrates how excited i am to see our boys progress.

#4thSeed2016orBust

[eyriq]

The average 22 year old guard averages 11/3/4 on 44/29/77 shooting with an average PER of 14.27

Oladipo averaged 18/4/4 on 44/34/82 shooting with a 15.9 PER

Averages go up until they peak around the age of 28. I think Oladipo was featured because he deserves to be. He is easily an above average guard prospect whose shooting efficiency is overly and inaccurately criticized.

The average 22 year old forward averages 12/6/2 on 47/20/72 shooting with a 14.97 PER

Tobias averaged 17/6/2 on 47/37/79 shooting with a 16.7 PER

Harris is projecting to be an elite 3 point shooting forward should these numbers hold up, and I'm not sure this is really part of the narrative when we discuss him. So while he is probably an otherwise average forward his shooting boosts him over the pack. The huge downside is his poor defense, while this is a strength of Oladipo's.

As for Vuvevic, he is easily elite given his age. INSANELY elite.

Average 24 year old center 11/7/1 on 51/14/67 shooting with a 15.46 PER

Vucevic 19/11/2 on 52/33/75 shooting with a 21.5 PER

He is a stretch center with elite rebounding and good scoring efficiency. So, in retrospect, of course we focused on Vucevic and Oladipo with a heavy side of Harris.

[Bensational]

Hmm, ok i see your position. I guess i just don't agree the Vic has established himself as the leader of the team. I see the agenda that you speak of, but I don't think he won that role. Vic, Vuc and Tobias all average pretty close to the same ppg, but none of them have shown they can carry a team, so i don't see Vic as the established leader. I could be wrong though.

I'm watching Westbrook and Durant next year for changes since RW showed all this scoring moxy in KD's absence. Of course, you have Bron pushing Wade over, but that is a special case. Stars will do that with no problem, but there are no stars on this team.

It's observational, but Vic really does look like the leader out there. Any time a basket is needed, the ball is given to him. Everyone defers and he's man enough to step up to the plate and take that pressure. I feel like he's the guy the team looks to a lot of the time, but what I can't tell is if that's because they're told to, or because everyone believes in him. He's also really started to build a profile in the league with his rookie/sophmore game and dunk show appearances.

Good call on RW and KD. But there should be plenty of shots for both those guys. A more relevant example would have been Harden if he'd stayed in OKC (look at him now), or maybe Kanter, who's currently been the 2nd fiddle. But even then, Kanter is their only post guy, so he's still likely to retain a decent amount of shots.

Even Jimmy Butler's super hot start ultimately lead to him deferring to Rose and Gasol once the season got well underway. Once Paul George asserted his star prowess, Granger was out the door (but he was also injury riddled leading up to that). Fournier even started the season looking much stronger than Dipo, but once Dipo came back from injury he overtook him in the pecking order by default (and then Fournier came back down to earth, too).

I agree with you that there are no stars on this team, yet. I feel like Vuc, Harris, Dipo, Payton and AG all have equal potential, maybe even Fournier, but right now we're really only grooming 2-3 of those guys as potential stars and we're already boxing in others.

[Bensational]

The average 22 year old guard averages 11/3/4 on 44/29/77 shooting with an average PER of 14.27

Oladipo averaged 18/4/4 on 44/34/82 shooting with a 15.9 PER

Averages go up until they peak around the age of 28. I think Oladipo was featured because he deserves to be. He is easily an above average guard prospect whose shooting efficiency is overly and inaccurately criticized.

The average 22 year old forward averages 12/6/2 on 47/20/72 shooting with a 14.97 PER

Tobias averaged 17/6/2 on 47/37/79 shooting with a 16.7 PER

Harris is projecting to be an elite 3 point shooting forward should these numbers hold up, and I'm not sure this is really part of the narrative when we discuss him. So while he is probably an otherwise average forward his shooting boosts him over the pack. The huge downside is his poor defense, while this is a strength of Oladipo's.

As for Vuvevic, he is easily elite given his age. INSANELY elite.

Average 24 year old center 11/7/1 on 51/14/67 shooting with a 15.46 PER

Vucevic 19/11/2 on 52/33/75 shooting with a 21.5 PER

He is a stretch center with elite rebounding and good scoring efficiency. So, in retrospect, of course we focused on Vucevic and Oladipo with a heavy side of Harris.

C'mon man, you're comparing the numbers of average players to players who have been handed lead roles. Average players don't get 36 minutes and 14-16fgas a game, so comparing those numbers just doesn't fly.

Look at Dipo compared to other SGs who were given large roles at the same age... He's middle of the pack when in comparison to those guys. Better than Beal (who's actually younger), but still doesn't have the shooting prowess of Klay.

Look at Harris compared to other 22 year old SFs... 3rd in FGAs, 3rd in PPG, but 2nd last in PER and TS%.

Let's look at Vuc compared to some other C's that have been given large roles at the same age... He's still only the 4th highest scorer, despite having the 2nd most FGAs, and he's 2nd last in PER. And there's only one-two of those guys who's been a significant impact player on a contending team.

Of course these guys look elite compared to the scrubs of the league, but when you look at them compared to the other above average players, then they certainly start to fall into the middle of that pack. They're not looking like the real difference makers you'd want them to be if they were going to be your stars.

I mean, what do Payton's numbers look like to the average 20 year old PG? What do AG's PER36 numbers look like compared to the average 19 year old SF? Even Fournier's PER36 numbers are above the average 22 year old numbers you posted.

[Bensational]

The Bucks are a good example of a team in flux. Packed full of youth that are all trying to make a name for themselves, but they've all found a balance.

Brandon Knight carried a lot of the scoring load for most of the season, but after that it's pretty even keel. Jabari was given 10fgas, Middleton 10, Giannis 9 and MCW inherited 12. MCW came from being a star on Philly to a piece on Milwaukee. They've done a great job of balancing egos on that team, and they're already a .500 team, and they still have the growth of Jabari, Giannis, Middleton and MCW to look forward to. None have been handed the reigns, and it's helped them as a team rather than hurt them.

[drsd]

The average 22 year old guard averages 11/3/4 on 44/29/77 shooting with an average PER of 14.27

Oladipo averaged 18/4/4 on 44/34/82 shooting with a 15.9 PER

Of course the average guard is expected to be a bench player (the 7-8th man on a team should be average).

What would be interesting is to see the average stat lines for 22 yo's that ave started. To be fair, to do this multiple seasons would need to be looked at and with a changing game, numbers get skeyed.

Together I like Oladipo's promise relative to his age. I think he is a winner and will be effective in getting Orlando to a top game. But I do not think he will ever be a NBA top-5 SG offensively. So to be truly great, he needs to be on of the best defensive players in the NBA.

[rcklsscognition]

Giving Oladipo so much slack has hurt our team.

[tooler]

The Bucks looked like a weird team last summer because they had so many vets. But they found a good balance bringing them off the bench, and most of them played really well unlike our terrible veterans. I know Bucks fans complain about more touches for Giannis but I don't think the veterans have killed anyone's development. You can always dump them later.

So I think there are multiple ways to develop a team. Not sure our way was any better or worse in the long run.

[Orium]

Whilst Oladipo has shown a lot of promise, I think we've been way too premature to anoint he and Vuc as the foundation of the team. We haven't done our due diligence in allowing other guys to make their mark, and it's only going to be harder to do that going forwards now that Vuc and Vic have pretty much taken on those roles. How often have you seen a star take a step back for another player this early in their careers? The only way things change from here is through player movement.

Oladipo will need to prove problematic to another players growth before we get out the pitch forks. While I agree that he has been groomed for a role that he isn't suited for, I think we need to wait for another player to really step up and then see how Oladipo reacts before we go assuming too much. If AG begins beasting, for example, and then Dipo starts showing reluctance to submit.. then we can open this discussion. A player worthy of usurping Oladipo will show it on the court regardless of what pecking order the coaches set.

[woosah]

Hmm, ok i see your position. I guess i just don't agree the Vic has established himself as the leader of the team. I see the agenda that you speak of, but I don't think he won that role. Vic, Vuc and Tobias all average pretty close to the same ppg, but none of them have shown they can carry a team, so i don't see Vic as the established leader. I could be wrong though.

I'm watching Westbrook and Durant next year for changes since RW showed all this scoring moxy in KD's absence. Of course, you have Bron pushing Wade over, but that is a special case. Stars will do that with no problem, but there are no stars on this team.

It's observational, but Vic really does look like the leader out there. Any time a basket is needed, the ball is given to him. Everyone defers and he's man enough to step up to the plate and take that pressure. I feel like he's the guy the team looks to a lot of the time, but what I can't tell is if that's because they're told to, or because everyone believes in him. He's also really started to build a profile in the league with his rookie/sophmore game and dunk show appearances.

Good call on RW and KD. But there should be plenty of shots for both those guys. A more relevant example would have been Harden if he'd stayed in OKC (look at him now), or maybe Kanter, who's currently been the 2nd fiddle. But even then, Kanter is their only post guy, so he's still likely to retain a decent amount of shots.

Even Jimmy Butler's super hot start ultimately lead to him deferring to Rose and Gasol once the season got well underway. Once Paul George asserted his star prowess, Granger was out the door (but he was also injury riddled leading up to that). Fournier even started the season looking much stronger than Dipo, but once Dipo came back from injury he overtook him in the pecking order by default (and then Fournier came back down to earth, too).

I agree with you that there are no stars on this team, yet. I feel like Vuc, Harris, Dipo, Payton and AG all have equal potential, maybe even Fournier, but right now we're really only grooming 2-3 of those guys as potential stars and we're already boxing in others.

That's funny i almost said Kanter, but he isn't a leader so i didn't. He did take Adams role however, which he seemed to be growing into nicely. He was a quick fix for this year and once their offense gets back to normal, i have a feeling he may be behind Adams due to defense but idk. We'll see.

I do agree mostly though. We do look to him a lot, but we look to others too. Tobes has more game winners and even Payton tried to end some games this year but missed his shots. That would make me think it's coach-called and giving others a chance in that finisher role. I guess i see that role as different than leader. It's like when Hedo was here, he was big in 4th quarters and would finish a lot, but he wasn't our leader (Dwight was our face and Meer was our leader imo). Even with his rep, we still went to Rashard sometimes down the stretch because you need options.

[seeingstars]

Hmm, ok i see your position. I guess i just don't agree the Vic has established himself as the leader of the team. I see the agenda that you speak of, but I don't think he won that role. Vic, Vuc and Tobias all average pretty close to the same ppg, but none of them have shown they can carry a team, so i don't see Vic as the established leader. I could be wrong though.

I'm watching Westbrook and Durant next year for changes since RW showed all this scoring moxy in KD's absence. Of course, you have Bron pushing Wade over, but that is a special case. Stars will do that with no problem, but there are no stars on this team.

It's observational, but Vic really does look like the leader out there. Any time a basket is needed, the ball is given to him. Everyone defers and he's man enough to step up to the plate and take that pressure. I feel like he's the guy the team looks to a lot of the time, but what I can't tell is if that's because they're told to, or because everyone believes in him. He's also really started to build a profile in the league with his rookie/sophmore game and dunk show appearances.

Good call on RW and KD. But there should be plenty of shots for both those guys. A more relevant example would have been Harden if he'd stayed in OKC (look at him now), or maybe Kanter, who's currently been the 2nd fiddle. But even then, Kanter is their only post guy, so he's still likely to retain a decent amount of shots.

Even Jimmy Butler's super hot start ultimately lead to him deferring to Rose and Gasol once the season got well underway. Once Paul George asserted his star prowess, Granger was out the door (but he was also injury riddled leading up to that). Fournier even started the season looking much stronger than Dipo, but once Dipo came back from injury he overtook him in the pecking order by default (and then Fournier came back down to earth, too).

I agree with you that there are no stars on this team, yet. I feel like Vuc, Harris, Dipo, Payton and AG all have equal potential, maybe even Fournier, but right now we're really only grooming 2-3 of those guys as potential stars and we're already boxing in others.

I agree about all of our star power. Were going to be really stacked once everyone comes into their own with a good coach.

Dipo Vuc and Harris have all been called for game winners. Payton and AG have been touted for their all world defensive abilities and fournier comes off as a great vet who understands how to help our pacing. ALL of these core guys are hardworking studs. The next two years will really be able to see what we have on our hands and I'm thinking people will be a whole lot more thankful for Jenny.