All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

[Quotatious]

Ooh- I don't think Marion and Kawhi are the same class of player. Definitely not. For one thing, Leonard is just a more impactful defender, substantively better as far as I'm concerned. Secondly, Marion was the 2nd or third best player on that team, depending on your perspective- they aren't playing the same role to me, Leonard is more analogous to Steve Nash in terms of hierarchy. Kawhi is the teams star, he looks by far the biggest in every plus minus statistic, in fact he looks like the best or second best player in the league by some. They've been basically a .500 team without him. Marion was 45th in the NBA in RAPM in 2006- much better in 2007, but still in a different class from Leonard.

I get it, this is weird, but Kawhi is not the normal player of this archetype. His impact is just gigantic- a closer comparison would be Kirilenko, but still he wasn't as good as Leonard. I agree that skepticism is warranted, but pull back the veil and Kawhi is an extraordinarily impactful player, and the best perimeter defender we have the data for.

Maybe it would help if I explained that I think Kawhi is an offensive star? He's putting up 19/2.5 ast on .637 TS% in March and April combined. If that doesn't qualify as "star" to you, okay, but considering the system he plays in those are big volume numbers. Leonard is absolutely not a guy who's limited to impact on one side of the ball.

EDIT: Draymond Green/Marion is a good comparison. But Kawhi is far better than both guys as far as I'm concerned.

How close do you think current Leonard is to prime Pippen?

[Clyde Frazier]

Westbrook doesn't have the luxury of picking and choosing his spots. I also think you are underrating Westbrook and what he does offensively. His efficiency is low but there's value in being the guy who carries the offensive load while being the only creator on the team. He doesn't have a Parker, Manu, Diaw, or even Green to take pressure off him offensively. That team has lived and died with him the past few months. Defensively he's not even close to Leonard but I can't hold that against him if he has to do every single thing offensively for his team.

Well said as it relates to OKC's playoff push to end the season. With Durant and ibaka going down, I think Westbrook going all out was their best option to try to salvage the season. They didn't have a good enough roster for a more balanced attack.

His slide makes me question keeping him in the top 5 here, but I'm not sure yet.

[Dr Spaceman]

That's only assuming if we take RAPM rankings completely at their face value and put Leonard at #5.

If I took RAPM at face value, Leonard would be #1 or 2, and I wouldn't have Paul in my top 5. I realize there's room for nuance, but only so much. And especially when so many different sources are saying the exact same thing- "hey, Kawhi is really *** good", it just does''t make much sense to me to really go against that. If you're shooting at a target, and keep hitting the same spot over and over again, guess what? You have really damn good aim.

Leonard absolutely had a mediocre start to the season and was averaging 15/7/3 on 53% TS until the end of February before exploding for the last two months of the season. Westbrook couldn't anchor Leonard's defense but Leonard couldn't anchor Westbrook's offense and this is where we come into the whole offensive anchor vs. defensive anchor and how much value you put into both. For me offensive anchors are slightly more valuable than defensive anchors, I know you value them equally .

I think if the difference between offensive anchors and defensive anchors in your mind was only "slight", you'd have Kawhi and Westy on similar levels. So I get that Leonard wasn't this stunning offensively the whole season, but again I fail to see how it's a big deal in this comparison when Westbrook has had essentially the same story. When Kawhi was averaging those numbers, he was still a defensive terror. When westbrook was shooting 37%, what was he? Bad, and on both ends of the floor.

Also, I am pretty sure for the first few months Duncan was the best player on the Spurs, not Leonard (RAPM numbers notwithstanding). Duncan was playing good minutes while anchoring the team defensively and offensively. Leonard plays with such a strong supporting cast that he can do what he does best. Score 16-20 PPG within the flow of the Spurs' offense while being a terror defensively.

Mmmm, no. During the stretch Kawhi was out, SAS went 9-9, with 2 wins being blowouts of NYK and MIN. Against playoff teams in the West during this stretch they were 3-6. They actually lost to the Lakers during this stretch. If Duncan was anchoring that team, he wasn't doing a heck of a job.

Anyway, honest question for you: All else being equal, what is more impressive, bringing a -3 squad to +3, or bringing a 0 squad to +6? I know where I stand, but I think this is a question you should answer before we move forward.

Westbrook doesn't have the luxury of picking and choosing his spots. I also think you are underrating Westbrook and what he does offensively. His efficiency is low but there's value in being the guy who carries the offensive load while being the only creator on the team. He doesn't have a Parker, Manu, Diaw, or even Green to take pressure off him offensively. That team has lived and died with him the past few months. Defensively he's not even close to Leonard but I can't hold that against him if he has to do every single thing offensively for his team. Him being one of the 5 or 6 guys in the league who can do that is what makes him comfortably better than Leonard for me.

I don't necessarily disagree with the things in this paragraph, but re: the last sentence, I think you should answer the question posed above.

[Dr Spaceman]

Ooh- I don't think Marion and Kawhi are the same class of player. Definitely not. For one thing, Leonard is just a more impactful defender, substantively better as far as I'm concerned. Secondly, Marion was the 2nd or third best player on that team, depending on your perspective- they aren't playing the same role to me, Leonard is more analogous to Steve Nash in terms of hierarchy. Kawhi is the teams star, he looks by far the biggest in every plus minus statistic, in fact he looks like the best or second best player in the league by some. They've been basically a .500 team without him. Marion was 45th in the NBA in RAPM in 2006- much better in 2007, but still in a different class from Leonard.

I get it, this is weird, but Kawhi is not the normal player of this archetype. His impact is just gigantic- a closer comparison would be Kirilenko, but still he wasn't as good as Leonard. I agree that skepticism is warranted, but pull back the veil and Kawhi is an extraordinarily impactful player, and the best perimeter defender we have the data for.

Maybe it would help if I explained that I think Kawhi is an offensive star? He's putting up 19/2.5 ast on .637 TS% in March and April combined. If that doesn't qualify as "star" to you, okay, but considering the system he plays in those are big volume numbers. Leonard is absolutely not a guy who's limited to impact on one side of the ball.

EDIT: Draymond Green/Marion is a good comparison. But Kawhi is far better than both guys as far as I'm concerned.

How close do you think current Leonard is to prime Pippen?

Hmm. I don't think the gap is that big. I'd say that Pippen's playmaking makes him better offensively, but Leonard's post game and outside shooting at least close the gap somewhat. I think they're pretty similar defensively, and someone saying Leonard is better on that end wouldn't really be controversial to me.

[PaulieWal]

Spoiler:

That's only assuming if we take RAPM rankings completely at their face value and put Leonard at #5.

If I took RAPM at face value, Leonard would be #1 or 2, and I wouldn't have Paul in my top 5. I realize there's room for nuance, but only so much. And especially when so many different sources are saying the exact same thing- "hey, Kawhi is really *** good", it just does''t make much sense to me to really go against that. If you're shooting at a target, and keep hitting the same spot over and over again, guess what? You have really damn good aim.

Leonard absolutely had a mediocre start to the season and was averaging 15/7/3 on 53% TS until the end of February before exploding for the last two months of the season. Westbrook couldn't anchor Leonard's defense but Leonard couldn't anchor Westbrook's offense and this is where we come into the whole offensive anchor vs. defensive anchor and how much value you put into both. For me offensive anchors are slightly more valuable than defensive anchors, I know you value them equally .

I think if the difference between offensive anchors and defensive anchors in your mind was only "slight", you'd have Kawhi and Westy on similar levels. So I get that Leonard wasn't this stunning offensively the whole season, but again I fail to see how it's a big deal in this comparison when Westbrook has had essentially the same story. When Kawhi was averaging those numbers, he was still a defensive terror. When westbrook was shooting 37%, what was he? Bad, and on both ends of the floor.

Also, I am pretty sure for the first few months Duncan was the best player on the Spurs, not Leonard (RAPM numbers notwithstanding). Duncan was playing good minutes while anchoring the team defensively and offensively. Leonard plays with such a strong supporting cast that he can do what he does best. Score 16-20 PPG within the flow of the Spurs' offense while being a terror defensively.

Mmmm, no. During the stretch Kawhi was out, SAS went 9-9, with 2 wins being blowouts of NYK and MIN. Against playoff teams in the West during this stretch they were 3-6. They actually lost to the Lakers during this stretch. If Duncan was anchoring that team, he wasn't doing a heck of a job.

Anyway, honest question for you: All else being equal, what is more impressive, bringing a -3 squad to +3, or bringing a 0 squad to +6? I know where I stand, but I think this is a question you should answer before we move forward.

Westbrook doesn't have the luxury of picking and choosing his spots. I also think you are underrating Westbrook and what he does offensively. His efficiency is low but there's value in being the guy who carries the offensive load while being the only creator on the team. He doesn't have a Parker, Manu, Diaw, or even Green to take pressure off him offensively. That team has lived and died with him the past few months. Defensively he's not even close to Leonard but I can't hold that against him if he has to do every single thing offensively for his team. Him being one of the 5 or 6 guys in the league who can do that is what makes him comfortably better than Leonard for me.

I don't necessarily disagree with the things in this paragraph, but re: the last sentence, I think you should answer the question posed above.

The different sources being RPM/RAPM? Again, I am all for inclusion of RAPM in these debates but I am not that big a believer in that like you are. We'll have to agree to disagree here if you think Leonard has been a top 5 player all season.

Edit: I would also like to add that when you have two players with completely different roles, styles, and usage I don't think you can simply look at RAPM and say that so and so has been this good.

Leonard was meh on offense until the end of February, Westbrook had a bad month and a half. I don't see the equivalency here that you are trying to create.

I am not talking about the stretch that Kawhi was out, I am talking about the first few months of the season as a whole. There's no way Leonard was the best player for the Spurs during that time and Duncan was their best player IMO.

Re: Improving a team from -3 to + 3 vs. 0 to a 6 I know where you stand on that. For me without better context I don't have an answer for you here.

[RSCD3_]

i think how leonard produces against the clippers will have a lot to say on how good he is offensively to the public, the clippers have nobody to defend him that well and he's probably the spurs biggest offensive mismatch, depending on how duncan does versus jordan i can see that fluctuating a lot.

Also " guys " who do you think will be on paul for the spurs i think we would see a lot of Green and leonard but who guards paul and who guards reddick? I think we could see a lot of kawhi on paul during this matchup.

[bondom34]

Westbrook doesn't have the luxury of picking and choosing his spots. I also think you are underrating Westbrook and what he does offensively. His efficiency is low but there's value in being the guy who carries the offensive load while being the only creator on the team. He doesn't have a Parker, Manu, Diaw, or even Green to take pressure off him offensively. That team has lived and died with him the past few months. Defensively he's not even close to Leonard but I can't hold that against him if he has to do every single thing offensively for his team.

Well said as it relates to OKC's playoff push to end the season. With Durant and ibaka going down, I think Westbrook going all out was their best option to try to salvage the season. They didn't have a good enough roster for a more balanced attack.

His slide makes me question keeping him in the top 5 here, but I'm not sure yet.

You seem to be exactly where I am, but I need to see playoff games first. I don't see Kawhi there yet.

[bondom34]

Another thing I'd throw out there Re: Westbrook, is that he's been in a different role in the past, and has shown that his defense isn't where it was this season. If you look at Kobe's old numbers, his crazy usage season went w/ a dip in defense as well, and I'd expect it. I feel like we're doing something where RAPM has become the be all end all and there isn't any room for context anymore. It was something that I really started to get into when I joined here, but I'm learning over time its nuances and that a lot of things seem to alter it. One is just simple roster constitution. Paulie said it on the last page, but the do everything attitude for Westbrook wasn't really due so much to attitude of him as a player but necessity. Looking at his teammates, and who is capable of anything offensively, by 2 man lineups sorted by minutes played:

Ibaka: capable of some shooting, no postups, can't create, minimal ball handling
Adams: even less of everything than Ibaka
Roberson: not much shooting, some cuts, nothing else
Waiters: can create some, but I'd rather him never shoot if I'm a coach
Morrow: really the second most capable option he's had, but mostly a spotup shooter, played about 800 minutes together
Kanter: they were fantastic offensively together, Kanter can't create, but the pick and roll was amazing and was the reason his assist numbers jumped when they did
Durant: realize that this is the 7th most minutes he had w/ a teammate....7th. So here's the only truly good option. And they were a +10.6 net.
Then he had 3 more, with Jackson, Singler, and Collison.

So I'm hearing a bit of what people are saying, but at the same time he's being written off for things that weren't in his control. As bizarre as this seems, I'm starting to understand where people who support Kobe and Iverson on this board are coming from. I completely understand Curry/Harden/Paul over him, and really get Lebron too. But for me from a standpoint of purely value to a team, he's ahead of Kawhi by a good margin and even Davis by a hair. I'm still with Westbrook at my 5 spot, at least until I see someone play some postseason games and show they've passed what he did.

[Dr Spaceman]

The different sources being RPM/RAPM? Again, I am all for inclusion of RAPM in these debates but I am not that big a believer in that like you are. We'll have to agree to disagree here if you think Leonard has been a top 5 player all season.

We have RAPM, we have RPM, we have on/off, we have the Spurs record with/without, and we can see that their recent surge has coincided with Kawhi playing his best ball of the season. These are all different data points, but they're all measuring the same thing and they're saying that Kawhi has been a monster, and that almost nobody has lifted their team more.

I don't think that Kawhi has maintained this level for the entire season, no. But I think, on balance, he was still a top 10 guy at the lowest for the vast majority of the season and his recent play (and it's 2.5 months now) has been mind-blowing.

Edit: I would also like to add that when you have two players with completely different roles, styles, and usage I don't think you can simply look at RAPM and say that so and so has been this good.

This is true, but by itself it's not a reason to doubt what the numbers say. If you have a reason why we shouldn't believe what the numbers are saying, be it in Westbrook's case or Leonard's case, then I'd love to hear it but as it stands I don't think there's any reason to doubt that Kawhi is having massive superstar impact. The above is good to point out, but there has to be a reason why you're skeptical otherwise it's just sort of doubt for its own sake.

And trust me, I've thought through all this stuff, and if the numbers weren't agreeing with what I see, I wouldn't be using them either. But for me there's no reasonable doubt here.

Leonard was meh on offense until the end of February, Westbrook had a bad month and a half. I don't see the equivalency here that you are trying to create.

Leonard has played 64 games. Westbrook has played 67. Westbrook had a bad month and a half, okay, but essentially we're talking about both guys doing most of their damage post All-Star break. Divide it into chunks:

Westbrook's missed time to start the season
Westbrook's slump
GOATBrook (Post All-Star)

Kawhi's slow start
Kawhi's missed time
Kawhi's recent stretch (post All-Star)

Where is the big difference you're seeing?

I am not talking about the stretch that Kawhi was out, I am talking about the first few months of the season as a whole. There's no way Leonard was the best player for the Spurs during that time and Duncan was their best player IMO.

I recognize that, but if Duncan were truly a better player than Leonard it wouldn't make sense for them to be essentially a 0 SRS team without Leonard and a +6 team (even better in recent months) with him. There's no way more than one guy is providing that kind of lift, or we'd be talking about the best team ever assembled. I don't think it's reasonable at all to say Duncan was the Spurs best player, and you haven't even provided any evidence for it yet. If you've got something to show why Duncan is better than Leonard, then please bring it out, because right now you're saying it in spite of the evidence.

[PaulieWal]

Spaceman, to be clear I do agree Leonard is their best player now. I am saying for the first 2-3 months I don't think Leonard was their best player, during that time I am saying Duncan was.

IIRC Westbrook's slump was primarily from December- January. He had a hot start to the season, then the slump, and then another hot stretch with all the crazy numbers. Leonard was meh until February offensively before exploding over the last couple of months. Two completely different seasons.

I am not skeptical for the sake of being skeptical, I am saying they are playing two different roles for their teams and that's where I am not ready to use RAPM as an end all, be all of everything.

[bondom34]

Oh, and a final note b/c I wanted to mention this article earlier but just found it again. From Nylon Calculus in a Harden/Westbrook comparison:

Using NBAWOWY, we can look at how the Thunder do when Westbrook plays versus when he’s off the court, even splitting lineups with and without Durant. Looking at the past two seasons, lineups with Durant, the reigning MVP, and without Westbrook have an offensive rating of 110.4; vice versa, where it’s just Westbrook, that changes to 111.3. So yes, the offense has been better with the so-called “chucker.” You can look at this at the player level too. On average, a player in a Westbrook-only lineup will score 0.076 points per possession worse than in a Durant-only lineup; in terms of TS%, the difference is 3.5%4. The team gets even better when the two join forces too, even though Westbrook’s efficiency actually goes down — he just has a positive effect on his teammates.

Code: Select all

Player   PPP: Westbrook   PPP: Durant   Difference
Serge Ibaka   1.19            1.13         0.06
Steven Adams   1.03         0.99         0.04
Reggie Jackson   1.07         1.01         0.06
Nick Collison   1.25         0.94         0.31
Perry Jones   0.86         1.1         -0.24
Anthony Morrow1.37         1.39         -0.02
Kendrick Perkins0.61         0.74         -0.13
Andre Roberson   1.02         0.73         0.29

What’s telling is that the Thunder without either of those two superstars had an offensive rating of 100, which is something you’d only see on cellar-dwelling teams. The Thunder don’t have any creative forces outside of Westbrook and Durant, and the role players strain under the weight of this extra burden. When Durant is solo, Durant “only” has a usage rate of 35.5. And when the two play together, Westbrook’s usage drops to 33.6. Westbrook is some malleable force who can take as many shots as needed, hitting a usage rate of 42.4 without Durant. It’s not appropriate to suggest Westbrook is stealing shots because the team operates well when he’s taking them — it’s part of the plan.

Harden, meanwhile, has the same gargantuan effect as a solo Westbrook. When he’s on the court, looking at the past couple seasons, the Rockets have scored at a 112.8 rate; when he’s off, they score at a pedestrian 100.8 rate. Even though Harden doesn’t have the same young Jordan/Wilt usage rate that Westbrook does, he has the same huge effect on his team’s offense and the magnitude of the effect is strangely similar too5. Harden makes up the gap with a higher efficiency, and yes, those free throws count — we’re not rating players based on some imaginary ideal game only you can see. What’s interesting is that the trade was best for both guys because it allowed them to separately evolve as pseudo-point guards. It’s why both OKC and Houston improved; neither guy was a negative and they could fully unwind and make their impression on the game6.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/06/jam ... f-scoring/

[PaulieWal]

But for me from a standpoint of purely value to a team, he's ahead of Kawhi by a good margin and even Davis by a hair. I'm still with Westbrook at my 5 spot, at least until I see someone play some postseason games and show they've passed what he did.

Agreed though I am not sure about Davis vs. GOAT.

The only way Kawhi ends in my top 5 for the season is if he's the clear-cut players on the Spurs for the playoff and they make at least the WCF.

[bondom34]

But for me from a standpoint of purely value to a team, he's ahead of Kawhi by a good margin and even Davis by a hair. I'm still with Westbrook at my 5 spot, at least until I see someone play some postseason games and show they've passed what he did.

Agreed though I am not sure about Davis vs. GOAT.

The only way Kawhi ends in my top 5 for the season is if he's the clear-cut players on the Spurs for the playoff and they make at least the WCF.

I was really torn on it, but I keep thinking back to the stretch when AD was injured and they pulled off some really decent wins. Without Westbrook there isn't a single even average win for OKC.

[Dr Spaceman]

Spaceman, to be clear I do agree Leonard is their best player now. I am saying for the first 2-3 months I don't think Leonard was their best player, during that time I am saying Duncan was.

Yes, and I'm saying that's kind of a crazy position, at least until I see some evidence that that is the case. All I'd like is some justification for saying Duncan was better, because it goes entirely against what I've seen.

To be fair: I realize it seems totally crazy to see Kawhi as a top 5 player as well, but I have at least gotten a start on posting my reasoning for thinking the way I do. It's something that makes sense to freak out about right from the start, but at this point there's quite substantial evidence and nothing really to counter it.

IIRC Westbrook's slump was primarily from December- January. He had a hot start to the season, then the slump, and then another hot stretch with all the crazy numbers. Leonard was meh until February offensively before exploding over the last couple of months. Two completely different seasons.

Please slow down and realize what you're saying here. Westbrook was out until November 28, then started his slump in December. What "hot start" are we talking about, exactly, then? Because that's two weeks, and if two weeks is enough for you to conclude that they've played "completely different seasons", that doesn't make sense. Westbrook was meh as well until February, unless two weeks are seriously enough to swing your opinion entirely, in which case why not vote for Whiteside at #1?

I am not skeptical for the sake of being skeptical, I am saying they are playing two different roles for their teams and that's where I am not ready to use RAPM as an end all, be all of everything.

Okay, but it's there, and it's going to be there unless we have a reason for it not telling the truth. What reason do you have for not believing in it, in Leonard's specific case?

[bondom34]

FWIW, Duncan had a plus 10 net rating through January 16th. Leonard was plus 8. And higher usage.

Edit: As for WB's December, it wasn't cold.

111 ORTG/105DRTG on .541 TS and 40.0 Usage

[PaulieWal]

At the risk of shameless self-promotion, I covered Westbrook's first half of the season here:

https://rootingforgoliath.wordpress.com/2015/02/04/where-has-the-real-russell-westbrook-gone/

From my piece:

Westbrook’s season so far has been a tale of two halves. From the start of the season until Christmas day Westbrook averaged 28.6/5.8/7.4 with a TS% of 56.3. In the 17 games after the Christmas day showdown against the Spurs, Westbrook’s numbers have dropped to 21.4/6.1/7.4 with a TS% of 46.7.

After that slump RW finished the season with almost 31/10/9 on 55% TS. So yes, I stand by what I said regarding his hot stretch, slump, and then the insane numbers stretch.

Edit: To be clear Westbrook's slump started at the end of December. He had great 15 games, bad 17 games, and then closed the season with insane numbers. I am not rewarding him for a 2 week stretch and it's false to say that Westbrook was meh until February as well.

[Dr Spaceman]

My position is being slightly misrepresented here, and with all due respect to Paulie and bondom you guys aren't giving me near enough credit. Pleas understand that I'm starting a position of skepticism, and when I see something like Leonard as the best player by RAPM, I freak out about it too. It doesn't make sense on the surface, I get that. But from there, I dig deeper and deeper, and actually what I've found is that Leonard is more impressive than we collectively realize.

Here is my breakdown of Leaonard's game that I posted on my blog today:

Spoiler:

F: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

There have not been more than five players in the NBA this season better than Kawhi Leonard. The reigning Finals MVP has improved dramatically once again, becoming the roaring Spurs’ clear-cut best player and defensive anchor extraordinaire.

The Spurs have had a very rough go of it at times this season. Most of the early months were spent experimenting with strange, ephemeral lineups and unconventional set plays that seemed to lodge themselves in the lining Gregg Popovich’s brain, never to return until they’re thrown out in a playoff matchup against a team that hasn’t seen them on film. It was a time of experimentation, possibly motivated by the confidence or even arrogance of knowing they’d be in the thick of things again no matter what come April. During this period, Kawhi was essentially cut loose, given free reign to call plays, bring the ball up court, and isolate whenever he felt like it. It might’ve been only the 10th biggest stroke of genius in Pop’s career, but here Kawhi is 3 months later playing by far the best offensive ball of his career. Leonard runs the pick and roll now, and takes his weaker matchups into the post with aplomb. His confidence is the highest it’s ever been, and the result is a bonafide superstar on both sides of the ball.

Leonard has come alive since the “very problematic” hand injury, scoring 19 points per contest in March and April to go along with 7 rebounds and 2.7 assists. He’s peaking at the right time (as the Spurs always do) and has shot a ridiculous 61.1 TS% in March and 63.7% in April. He’s developed a sublime herky-jerky driving game, and he’s become an expert at getting defenders off-balance with jab steps and blowing past them; he’s a little James Harden-esque in that sense. I’m still in love with the guy’s limbs, and he’s leveraging those freakish arms to become a roving perimeter nightmare defensively. There have been very, very few players in the history of the game who have been able to affect games with their perimeter disruption the way Leonard does. He flies around the floor, dropping into the paint to help on a drive and recovering to the open shooter faster than even the ball can get there. He ruthlessly collects steals like severed heads, and has been doing so at a rate of almost 3 per game in March and April. Kawhi has the length to give the illusion that he’s playing tight defense while he actually keeps a few steps of room for recovery on the drive. Just watch non-point guards who attempt to handle the ball against Leonard; it never ends well, as he carelessly knocks the ball away and heads the other way for a dunk. His agility and instincts are simply remarkable, and enable him to cover far more floor space defensively than any other player in the league.

On April 5th, Kawhi put together perhaps his most stunning regular season performance to date. He recorded 3 steals and 11 points in the first quarter, left Golden State (of all teams) looking completely helpless and single-handedly blew up their entire offense. The Warriors would stay behind by double digits for the rest of the game, looking utterly shell shocked.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE7yzPXV3vI&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgUu-7kQhyY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14nQMYtRGwU&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

That’s the thing about Kawhi: he can simply take over games in a sense that few other players can. Leonard will switch onto the opposing team’s ball-handler or best offensive player and take him completely out of his element, rack up a few steals and subsequent transition dunks, and before the opposing team even realizes what is happening the Spurs are on a 12-0 run and pulling away with the game in hand. These are the things he does on a nightly basis, and unlike traditional superstars there is no defense you can run, there are no tricky matchups to present, and there is no denying him the ball. When Kawhi Leonard smells blood, the game is over.

As the season progressed, it’s become more and more difficult to justify having Kawhi not make the first team. I absolutely believe that if he had maintained this level of play all season and not missed 17 games, he could unseat one of my 1st team forwards. Haralabos Voulgaris and I (what company!) are likely the only people in the world with Leonard on the MVP ballot, but he’s infinitely deserving in my opinion. He’s currently the league’s second most impactful player according to ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, and his team has been the best in the league since his return from injury. Kawhi has the Spurs surging right before the playoffs, and I have accepted that he’s leading the basketball apocalypse in 2015.

If you find yourself objecting to a ton of what I say in here, fine, but unless that is the case you shouldn't just dismiss the idea that Leonard is a top-flight superstar. If I come off as if I'm simply rote ranking players based on RAPM, then I apologize, and you guys should know by now I'm a lot better than that. But simply saying "Kawhi's RAPM isn't real because RAPM has x flaw" isn't helpful, because

a) I know what RAPM's flaws are, I would like to know why they apply specifically to Kawhi as an individual
and,
b) I've thought about this much more deeply than I'm being given credit for here.

[bondom34]

At the risk of shameless self-promotion, I covered Westbrook's first half of the season here:

https://rootingforgoliath.wordpress.com/2015/02/04/where-has-the-real-russell-westbrook-gone/

From my piece:

Westbrook’s season so far has been a tale of two halves. From the start of the season until Christmas day Westbrook averaged 28.6/5.8/7.4 with a TS% of 56.3. In the 17 games after the Christmas day showdown against the Spurs, Westbrook’s numbers have dropped to 21.4/6.1/7.4 with a TS% of 46.7.

After that slump RW finished the season with almost 32/10/9 on 54% TS. So yes, I stand by what I said regarding his hot stretch, slump, and then the insane numbers stretch.

Damn, just edited above, but I think the mixup is earlier saying he was cold in December/January. Really it was pretty much only January (post Xmas).

[PaulieWal]

At the risk of shameless self-promotion, I covered Westbrook's first half of the season here:

https://rootingforgoliath.wordpress.com/2015/02/04/where-has-the-real-russell-westbrook-gone/

From my piece:

Westbrook’s season so far has been a tale of two halves. From the start of the season until Christmas day Westbrook averaged 28.6/5.8/7.4 with a TS% of 56.3. In the 17 games after the Christmas day showdown against the Spurs, Westbrook’s numbers have dropped to 21.4/6.1/7.4 with a TS% of 46.7.

After that slump RW finished the season with almost 32/10/9 on 54% TS. So yes, I stand by what I said regarding his hot stretch, slump, and then the insane numbers stretch.

Damn, just edited above, but I think the mixup is earlier saying he was cold in December/January. Really it was pretty much only January (post Xmas).

That may have been me though I think I said that the slump was from late Dec to Jan. But yes, basically the slump was only for a month. Hot start, slump, and then 31/10/9 on 55% TS to finish the season. GOAT!!

[PaulieWal]

Spaceman, I always give you credit. I think you are one of the best posters around, so it's not a matter of me not giving you credit. Even when I disagree with you I know you are coming from a position where you have researched as much as you possibly can and you always force me to revisit my position and research more .

To be fair, now I am even more likely to side with RW here. He only had 1 bad month really, not two months. I checked my piece on Russ that I wrote. It was basically a stretch of 17 bad games and then he closed the season with 31/10/9. On the other hand, Leonard was not good offensively until the end of February. Even you would agree with that. My replies are getting shorter right now but I will try to revisit this debate when I have more time.