Can't Wait for May 19th...

[ImHeisenberg]

^I'm beginning to worry that Johnson might not come out. He wants to be sure to be a Top 10, and if he's not all but guaranteed that he's going to go back to school.

If we don't take him at 8, would Charlotte, Miami or Indiana be looking at a SF at 9-10-11? Charlotte has MKG, Miami will probably be looking for a big, Indiana has George, then at 12 you have Utah with Hayward.

I would be shocked if he fell out of the lottery. I think it's kind of ridiculous that a guaranteed top 10 pick is what would keep him out of the draft. What's the pay difference between being the 8th pick versus the 12th? Not a ton- and what he really loses is the salary of his final year, not his first. Financially, it's moronic to stay in school.

[whitehops]

I would be shocked if he fell out of the lottery. I think it's kind of ridiculous that a guaranteed top 10 pick is what would keep him out of the draft. What's the pay difference between being the 8th pick versus the 12th? Not a ton- and what he really loses is the salary of his final year, not his first. Financially, it's moronic to stay in school.

I was curious so I looked into it.

for rookies coming into this year, based on their four year salary:

1st pick: $21,433,363
5th pick: $14,080,726
8th pick: $10,708,368
12th pick: $8,655,041
15th pick: $7,690,459

based on the 2017 rookie scale, Johnson would have to be a top 6 pick in the 2016 draft to make us much in the first three years as he would in four years as the 12th pick this year. even then, he would be getting his second contract a year earlier if he came in this year which would be substantially more than the $4 million he would get in the fourth year of his deal as a 2016 rookie.


basically, if you are an nba prospect and you are projected to go in the lottery, it is almost always the right decision, financially, to enter the draft as soon as you can.

[ImHeisenberg]

I would be shocked if he fell out of the lottery. I think it's kind of ridiculous that a guaranteed top 10 pick is what would keep him out of the draft. What's the pay difference between being the 8th pick versus the 12th? Not a ton- and what he really loses is the salary of his final year, not his first. Financially, it's moronic to stay in school.

I was curious so I looked into it.

for rookies coming into this year, based on their four year salary:

1st pick: $21,433,363
5th pick: $14,080,726
8th pick: $10,708,368
12th pick: $8,655,041
15th pick: $7,690,459

based on the 2017 rookie scale, Johnson would have to be a top 6 pick in the 2016 draft to make us much in the first three years as he would in four years as the 12th pick this year. even then, he would be getting his second contract a year earlier if he came in this year which would be substantially more than the $4 million he would get in the fourth year of his deal as a 2016 rookie.


basically, if you are an nba prospect and you are projected to go in the lottery, it is almost always the right decision, financially, to enter the draft as soon as you can.

Johnson will have his rookie contract, regardless of when he enters the league. What he would miss out on by staying at Arizona is a year at the end of his career, which usually pays substantially more.

[DetroitSho]

We finished in the 8th spot. So, I'll be surprised if we're not pushed back to 9th per our usual draft lottery position.

I know some people feel we're "due" a top 3 pick, but it doesn't work like that. There's no karma in the lottery balls. I'd be delighted if we finally received a top 3 pick, but then I'd probably dread the idea that we select another bust with it.

The odds of a top 3 pick are exactly 10%. Same as they were last year when we dropped to 9 and lost our pick.

Of course, the odds that we move down (17%) are also exactly the same as they were last year. Everyone has a better chance of moving up than moving down until like the 13th pick or so. Its a significant chance, but we still have 73% chance of staying put.

Thems the hard facts, people need to accept them. We aren't "due" anything, regardless of how rotten our luck as been here either. Odds are completely unaffected by previous outcomes.

You might as well save this post somewhere. I got a feeling you'll have to reiterate this truth many more times.