2015 Free Agency and Offseason Part 1

[Ruzious]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

Yup - it's very important to get a quality player for the MLE this offseason - with a 4 year contract.

[Rafael122]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

Yeah, from a team's perspective, it's great to lock someone up now. But are the agents going to do that for their clients? Iman, as average as he is is probably going from a 4-5 mil per year deal to a 8-9 mil deal now. Ridiculous to sign long term IMO.

[fishercob]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

We have the MLE, BAE, two juicy TPE's and no real depth.

If we can't land a stud like Love this summer (and even if we can) we should use these tools to remake the back half of the roster.

Temple's player option was asinine, but cutting him (either outright or via the stretch provision) should be worthwhile if we can upgrade.

Here's what I'm looking to add this summer:

(1) A young big. We have youth in the backcourt and on the wing, but worthwhile youth up front. We need to use our pick on a young frontcourt player or as part of a scenario to get one. Likely draft the best of Lyle/Looney/Portis

(2) Backup center. Baynes or Koufos would fit the bill nicely -- young vets who can hold their own if Gortat/Nene go down for a stretch. Maybe Greg Smith. Brandan Wright would be great on O -- worry about his D though.

(3) Wing shooting -- Get younger and more versatile tham Rasual Butler -- Belinelli, Gerald Green, John Jenkins, Dunleavy, Casspi

(4) Backup combo gaurd -- this strikes me as the least pressing need, especially if we add a good backup SG. Sessions should be okay as Wall's backup for a year AND Satoransky remains an option in a year as a good third guard off the bench. That said, I;d take look at Jason Terry, Mo Williams, Aaron Brook, Jeremy Lin, Rodney Stuckey.

EVEN if it means a one year luxury tax, the Wiz would be wise to spend freely this summer with long-term deals that set them up well when the cap spikes. Buy now, save later. Build that depth.

[fishercob]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

Yeah, from a team's perspective, it's great to lock someone up now. But are the agents going to do that for their clients? Iman, as average as he is is probably going from a 4-5 mil per year deal to a 8-9 mil deal now. Ridiculous to sign long term IMO.

I don't think it's ridiculous. I think it's pretty hard to turn down $25M guaranteed now when you're a borderline starter and/or solid rotation player. You're one injury away from losing your job to someone younger and cheaper. If I was Dorrell Wright, for instance, and someone offered me that kind of coin, I'd take the money and run.

[queridiculo]

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

Certainly makes sense from a business perspective, but as a player agent I'd be very weary of having my client sign a MLE offer this offseason.

For an older vet I'd say go for it, but for somebody like Shumpert I'd probably tell him to sign a one year deal and see how things develop in 2016.

MLE deals may be the new vet minimum deals, with younger players on that tier likely signing deals in the $7-8 million range until that TV money cap space dries up over the next three to four seasons.

There will likely be a work stoppage before that, with players on the lower rung likely to demand a bigger piece of the pie.

Should be interesting to see what happens when the big dogs snatch up those $30 million dollar contracts, while the rosters are rounded out with players making a mere pittance in comparison.

[Ruzious]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

Yeah, from a team's perspective, it's great to lock someone up now. But are the agents going to do that for their clients? Iman, as average as he is is probably going from a 4-5 mil per year deal to a 8-9 mil deal now. Ridiculous to sign long term IMO.

I don't know about that. I think it's the agents job to get as much guaranteed money as possible. Injuries happen, so putting off signing a contract for a year could alter a players' family's future.

[nate33]

Temple's player option was asinine, but cutting him (either outright or via the stretch provision) should be worthwhile if we can upgrade.

I still don't have much of an issue with Temple's contract. He's a decent situational defensive role player who also serves as our emergency PG and SG. Having a guy like that as your 13th man makes reasonable sense if he only costs the vet minimum.

[fishercob]

Temple's player option was asinine, but cutting him (either outright or via the stretch provision) should be worthwhile if we can upgrade.

I still don't have much of an issue with Temple's contract. He's a decent situational defensive role player who also serves as our emergency PG and SG. Having a guy like that as your 13th man makes reasonable sense if he only costs the vet minimum.

I don't disagree, but I wouldn't not sign someone better because we have Temple under contract.

I wouldn't even think to make such a comment were it not for Ernie's history of "well, we had 14 guys under contract so there wasn't any room to ....."

We're going to head into the offseason with 11 players under contract, four exceptions (which can be broken up) and two draft picks.

One of the viable ways to improve the team and create value on the roster is getting rid of people that no one wants (and don't help much on the floor) and replacing them with more desirable players/assets.

If Ernie doesn't go after Belinelli or John Jenkins because of Garrett Temple is under contract, then...well. Nevermind. That's exactly what's going to happen.

By the way, at what point do I get over Ernie getting beaten out for Isiah Thomas? Boston got him for Cleveland's 2016 first rounder. That pick is almost assuredly going to be late 20's -- could easily be 30. Ernie couldn't trump that offer with Dre Miller's expiring and a better pick consideration? A top-20 protected first would have done it. He'd be perfect here and his contract is going to be a ridiculous bargain in the out years.

[queridiculo]

Btw, armed with the power of hindsight, how much of that lock out was forced specifically with the new TV deal in mind?

Just imagine how much money the players would have gotten under the old CBA.

With a bit of guessing and assuming that the floated $108 million figure was based on the non-BRI kicker pushing the BRI percentage to 51%, the salary cap would have exploded to roughly $120 million in 2016/17

The pending deal would also explain the $2 billion figure that the sale of the Clippers netted.

All this talk about franchises losing money when they probably gained a minimum 30% valuation across the board...

[closg00]

Temple's player option was asinine, but cutting him (either outright or via the stretch provision) should be worthwhile if we can upgrade.

I still don't have much of an issue with Temple's contract. He's a decent situational defensive role player who also serves as our emergency PG and SG. Having a guy like that as your 13th man makes reasonable sense if he only costs the vet minimum.

The team should have had the option on Temple's 2nd year, it was totally unnecessary to Maynor him.


#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

[payitforward]

this is why i said the cap wasn't going to be a hindrance to getting durant...and that we should just improve the team so we look good enough for him to join up

but nooooo, "we cant add these contracts doeeeeee"

now we look like hot ass when we could have made some nice improvements for this playoff run AND been in a decent spot for next years free agency

Decent spot, maybe. But now we're in a great spot going forward. Heck, let's go after 2 max guys! Convince both KD and Love to come here in 2016. We'd have to let Beal walk (or S&T him), but I'd be fine with that.

Gortat
Love
Durant
(anybody)
Wall

Bench - Porter, 2015 & 2016 firsts

We'd have lots of minimum bench players that first year, but we can add another piece when the cap jumps again in 2017.

Well, lets see... other than Gortat, we made sure to acquire no long-term contracts last off-season -- in order to make sure we'd have plenty of room for Durant next Summer. So, in fact, at the end of next season, we'll have Wall, Beal, Porter & Gortat. Plus our #19 pick from this June's draft.

Turns out that the cap will be going up so fast that it looks like *many teams* will have tons of flexibility. No particular reason to think Durant will come here. No particular reason to think Love will come here. The Washington Wizards, John Wall, etc. loom large in our minds not their minds! Just another team among many. Not to say we won't be able to sign any FAs, good ones I mean. Sure we will. But assuming we can go out and get two of the top players in the league just because... well just because! seems like a fantasy -- fan=fantasy.

Not to mention that we now seem to realize that for someone like Durant, a one-year contract is enormously preferable to anything longer. Might be worth $50m long-term to him to sign for 1 year next Summer. Looks like power really shifts into the hands of the top players.

In other words, the idea that "wow it's been great so far; we're in the playoffs that's great -- and now we can add superstars and that shows how great a GM Ernie is" is an utter fabrication. This year, after 12 years at the helm, Ernie has topped out as the Wizards' GM by putting a league-average team on the floor. And it's a team w/ relatively little young talent, i.e. relatively little improvement built in to the roster.

[payitforward]

3. What to do with the roster next season? If Pierce is back, they pretty much have their top 9 players returning: Wall/Sessions, Beal/Webster, Pierce/Porter, Nene/Humphries and Gortat. Add Blair and you're already at 10. Add a draft pick, you're at 11 and they usually don't care more than 12-13 players. Hard for me to see them using the MLE, especially when they have MLE sized contracts in Pierce, Webster, Hump. So in a nutshell, unless Pierce opts out it's the same roster.

I think just the opposite. This summer is the best time to lock up players to long term contracts. I'd try and get the best player I could find for a 4-year full MLE deal. For argument's sake, let's say we added a guy like Iman Shumpert, Alexis Ajinca, Jonas Jerebko or Dorell Wright for the a 4-year, $25M deal. 2 years for now, we'll be happy to have a quality rotation player at that price. An MLE contract in 2017 will be more like $10M a year.

You certainly seem right, Nate -- but since this is the best strategy for pretty much any team, it'll be hard to execute it well; there'll be lots of competition, and that will push salaries up. But... you're still right!

Ajinca would be one of my top targets too. But, Ernie won't sign him I fear. For one thing, he's likely to get some significant offers; for another I doubt our genius FO rates him as high as Seraphin.

Btw -- Rafael -- I can't remember any time that we had only 12 players (the league minimum) or even 13 players.

[Dark Faze]

i just the idea of Ted getting to wield this kind of power this off-season....chances like this come around once or twice a decade at most...

[payitforward]

Just one more point on this:

...now we're in a great spot going forward (i.e. w/ cap room, salary flexibility, and so...) ...let's go after 2 max guys! Convince both KD and Love to come here in 2016. ...

LR -- let me just restrict this question to the 15 Eastern Conference teams: how many of the other 14 teams have as much or more cap room and salary flexibility as the Wizards at the end of next year?

Spoiler:

13 of the 14. And the one exception is only a few $m behind us.

[nuposse04]

I'm not in the minority when I say we should not retain Seraphin, right? I mean if he took the vet min. then maybe, but we should let him walk right?

Some dude on extremeskins is trying to tell me he is a decent "young" big and he'd prefer Seraphin over Ed Davis...I can't even fathom how someone could be missing so many chromosomes and still manage to post on the internet.

Seraphin over Ed Davis? Gahhhhh.


*Would Davis be attainable for the MLE? Or probably more.

[Sluggerface]

I'm not in the minority when I say we should not retain Seraphin, right? I mean if he took the vet min. then maybe, but we should let him walk right?

Some dude on extremeskins is trying to tell me he is a decent "young" big and he'd prefer Seraphin over Ed Davis...I can't even fathom how someone could be missing so many chromosomes and still manage to post on the internet.

Seraphin over Ed Davis? Gahhhhh.


*Would Davis be attainable for the MLE? Or probably more.

Seraphin's gotta go. He's the worst player in the rotation. He provides one thing. Hook shots. That's it. If he was actually a legit dominant post player that was adept at drawing fouls, maybe, but that isn't the case. He's garbo.

[fishercob]

Paging the R&D team: I need a scouting report on John Jenkins.

His age and shooting ability intrigue me. Overall sample size is small (just 1400 minutes in three seasons), but this year's numbers (admittedly in just 300 minutes) were impressive --.629 TS%, 40% from 3, .147 WS/48, ORtg 118.

I don't think ATL will have access to the MLE because they're so far under the cap, so a strong offer (if he's worth it) could steal him. Perhaps this is a potential Patty Mills/Danny Green situation of a good, affordable player, who just hasn't gotten the right opportunity yet.

And if he turns out to be a good player, his contract could turn into an insane bargain in the out years because of the new cap. He might be very handy Beal insurance should the Wizards and Brad not see eye to eye on Brad's next contract.

Enlighten me.

[nate33]

The important number on his stat line is 297 - his minutes played. That's a paltry minutes total. Essentially, it is pure garbage time. Nobody is playing any defense and nobody has done any scouting.

If he was even half decent, the team would find a way to get him 600-1000 minutes even on a loaded team. My guess is that the reason he doesn't play much is because he can't play defense.

[fishercob]

The important number on his stat line is 297 - his minutes played. That's a paltry minutes total. Essentially, it is pure garbage time. Nobody is playing any defense and nobody has done any scouting.

If he was even half decent, the team would find a way to get him 600-1000 minutes even on a loaded team. My guess is that the reason he doesn't play much is because he can't play defense.

You may be right, but look at the first couple of years of Danny Green and Patty Mills' careers. You could have come to similar conclusions.

He was playing behind Teague, Korver, Schroeder and Mack. Maybe there just wasn't much opportunity. As to defense? He's got the physical tools be a decent NBA defender; I don't think a 6'4 SG can hurt you that much unless you're a complete idiot or have Andre Miller's lateral quickness.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Paging the R&D team: I need a scouting report on John Jenkins.

His age and shooting ability intrigue me. Overall sample size is small (just 1400 minutes in three seasons), but this year's numbers (admittedly in just 300 minutes) were impressive --.629 TS%, 40% from 3, .147 WS/48, ORtg 118.

I don't think ATL will have access to the MLE because they're so far under the cap, so a strong offer (if he's worth it) could steal him. Perhaps this is a potential Patty Mills/Danny Green situation of a good, affordable player, who just hasn't gotten the right opportunity yet.

And if he turns out to be a good player, his contract could turn into an insane bargain in the out years because of the new cap. He might be very handy Beal insurance should the Wizards and Brad not see eye to eye on Brad's next contract.

Enlighten me.

Jenkins was the scorer on a Vanderbilt University team that also had Festus Ezeli and Jeffrey Taylor. He's a pure shooter much like JJ Redick. He is small for a SG and not a good enough ball handler to be a PG.

I wanted Jenkins in round two the year he declared.

In this draft Olivier Hanlan is similar to James Jenkins. I think Hanlan will be a better player.