2015 Draft Thread - Part 1

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't think Nene has lost it, I think the pace and opponents are dictating his playing time. He's going to be a very expensive bench player next season.

Or, a valuable asset in trades.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

One player who was initially way overrated and then fell completely out of favor so he's now underrated is Andrew Harrison - the PG half of the Harrison twins. He failed to meet expectations, but he really wasn't that bad and showed some good qualities - he got to the line at a good rate and he had a good assist/to rate for a college PG. And he's a 6' freaking 6" 215 lb PG - and that's a solid 215. What he should be doing is making himself versatile enough to play the 2 as well as the 1. Lock himself in a gym and shoot at least 1,000 3's a day. His twin has a solid 3 ball. He's currently 47th on draftexpress' s mock (Wiz pick 49th) and not drafted on nbadraft.net - which has Aaron being drafted late.

Excellent catch, Ruzious.

The "draft freshmen first" bias invariably causes returning players to be devalued. Like a car after its been purchased, sophomore status depreciates the "value" of players who are BETTER THAN LAST YEAR, when as freshmen they were considered lottery picks.

Same guy is round two as a sophomore.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Which of Towns, Okafor, Winslow, Mudiay, and Russell has the highest bust potential?

So, not to be pedantic or anything, but I do think the answer depends on what you have in mind when you say "bust". If "bust" includes "mildly disappointing relative to draft position but still a functional player" (think MKG, Tristan Thompson, OJ Mayo), then Winslow might be the guy. I think he'll be an effective player, but may be one that doesn't live up to the expectations that tend to come with being a Top 5 pick.

But if you're talking "bust" on the Anthony Bennett, Hasheem Tahbeet, Thomas Robinson level (there I did it again...) - then I don't think any of them are at all likely to fall into that category. I'd probably pick Mudiay, but only on the thinnest of reasons - in that I still have some lingering questions about maturity, etc. when he decided he'd rather play in China than at SMU. (I'm sure others will offer more background to the decision, and I hold this judgement very lightly.) Since Brandon Jennings is really the only other top prospect to take this route and has not exactly set the world on fire, the precedent is not a good one.

Towns will be very solid - excellent defender and an improving offensive game. I'd take him #1 by a hair over Okafor. Okafor will be a prolific scorer in the NBA, but won't have the same immense size advantage he did in most of his college games. His weaker defense is what would cause me to drop him behind Towns and could lead to a mild disappointment over the course of his career. And I expect Russell to have an impact at least that of Beal, Oladipo, and other SGs picked in the top 5 in recent drafts.

And with all that said - as much as I'd love to get one of those guys on the Wiz, I am much happier watching Paul Pierce & our young guys rip the hearts out of the Eastern Conference, just hope they can keep it up!

Is Winslow a better prospect than Michael Kidd Gilchrist was when he came out of Kentucky?

Is MKG a bust? (He went a pick before Beal. Would you keep Porter if offered MKG?)

Winslow is a player I need to know better, but seems bustable. Duke had Okafor, Tyus and Matt Jones. Winslow might be overrated.

[Sluggerface]

Sooooo. A new big that can be groomed into a starting 4 has to be the priority at this point. Right? I don't think I can stomach another season of Nene.

[Ruzious]

Which of Towns, Okafor, Winslow, Mudiay, and Russell has the highest bust potential?

So, not to be pedantic or anything, but I do think the answer depends on what you have in mind when you say "bust". If "bust" includes "mildly disappointing relative to draft position but still a functional player" (think MKG, Tristan Thompson, OJ Mayo), then Winslow might be the guy. I think he'll be an effective player, but may be one that doesn't live up to the expectations that tend to come with being a Top 5 pick.

But if you're talking "bust" on the Anthony Bennett, Hasheem Tahbeet, Thomas Robinson level (there I did it again...) - then I don't think any of them are at all likely to fall into that category. I'd probably pick Mudiay, but only on the thinnest of reasons - in that I still have some lingering questions about maturity, etc. when he decided he'd rather play in China than at SMU. (I'm sure others will offer more background to the decision, and I hold this judgement very lightly.) Since Brandon Jennings is really the only other top prospect to take this route and has not exactly set the world on fire, the precedent is not a good one.

Towns will be very solid - excellent defender and an improving offensive game. I'd take him #1 by a hair over Okafor. Okafor will be a prolific scorer in the NBA, but won't have the same immense size advantage he did in most of his college games. His weaker defense is what would cause me to drop him behind Towns and could lead to a mild disappointment over the course of his career. And I expect Russell to have an impact at least that of Beal, Oladipo, and other SGs picked in the top 5 in recent drafts.

And with all that said - as much as I'd love to get one of those guys on the Wiz, I am much happier watching Paul Pierce & our young guys rip the hearts out of the Eastern Conference, just hope they can keep it up!

Is Winslow a better prospect than Michael Kidd Gilchrist was when he came out of Kentucky?

Is MKG a bust? (He went a pick before Beal. Would you keep Porter if offered MKG?)

Winslow is a player I need to know better, but seems bustable. Duke had Okafor, Tyus and Matt Jones. Winslow might be overrated.

MKG's a very solid player, but his jump shot is broken. Winslow jump shot isn't great, but it's far from broken, and he really stepped up in a lot of their NCAA tournament games. He''s not quite as long as the great defensive SF's like MKG and Leonard. It's hard to see him as a bust, because he's a very good defender and excellent in transition - those will translate to the NBA - as he's got a very strong NBA body and athleticism. He's a safe pick in the 5-10 range.

[Severn Hoos]

Which of Towns, Okafor, Winslow, Mudiay, and Russell has the highest bust potential?

So, not to be pedantic or anything, but I do think the answer depends on what you have in mind when you say "bust". If "bust" includes "mildly disappointing relative to draft position but still a functional player" (think MKG, Tristan Thompson, OJ Mayo), then Winslow might be the guy. I think he'll be an effective player, but may be one that doesn't live up to the expectations that tend to come with being a Top 5 pick.

But if you're talking "bust" on the Anthony Bennett, Hasheem Tahbeet, Thomas Robinson level (there I did it again...) - then I don't think any of them are at all likely to fall into that category. I'd probably pick Mudiay, but only on the thinnest of reasons - in that I still have some lingering questions about maturity, etc. when he decided he'd rather play in China than at SMU. (I'm sure others will offer more background to the decision, and I hold this judgement very lightly.) Since Brandon Jennings is really the only other top prospect to take this route and has not exactly set the world on fire, the precedent is not a good one.

Towns will be very solid - excellent defender and an improving offensive game. I'd take him #1 by a hair over Okafor. Okafor will be a prolific scorer in the NBA, but won't have the same immense size advantage he did in most of his college games. His weaker defense is what would cause me to drop him behind Towns and could lead to a mild disappointment over the course of his career. And I expect Russell to have an impact at least that of Beal, Oladipo, and other SGs picked in the top 5 in recent drafts.

And with all that said - as much as I'd love to get one of those guys on the Wiz, I am much happier watching Paul Pierce & our young guys rip the hearts out of the Eastern Conference, just hope they can keep it up!

Is Winslow a better prospect than Michael Kidd Gilchrist was when he came out of Kentucky?

Is MKG a bust? (He went a pick before Beal. Would you keep Porter if offered MKG?)

Winslow is a player I need to know better, but seems bustable. Duke had Okafor, Tyus and Matt Jones. Winslow might be overrated.

I do not consider MKG a bust, but then I have a pretty high threshold to define a pick as a bust. I do think he's a mild disappointment in that his offense is below average, and you would hope to have a better all-around player if you're picking #2. I'd still take Beal over him, and that's without even getting into Lillard or Drummond. At this point, I probably wouldn't trade Otto for him - I'm hopeful that Playoff Otto might be more of the Otto we see in the future, plus he has one more year on his rookie deal, where you have to make the decision on MKG this summer or next, how much is he worth?

I like Ruz' comparison of Iguodala for Winslow. He's a guy that went #9 in the draft, not top 5. had he been top 5, would he have been thought of as a disappointment? Probably not, and certainly not a bust, but also not a "top 5 guy" to most people.

Winslow has shown a better offensive game that either MKG or Iguodala, so he has a better chance to be an all-around player. I do think he has a bit too much punk in him - he's tangled with players a couple of times that could be considered cheap shots, but as a Dookie he didn't really get called on it. We'll see if that carries over to the NBA. Should be a very solid player, maybe even a role player/ glue guy extraordinaire. Would rather get that in the 6-10 range than top 5, but also would rather have a guy like that (i.e., best-case Otto) than a high-ceiling guy who turns out to be a bust.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Why would anyone be disappointed in MKG? He wasn't drafted based on being advanced offensively -- he wasn't. His appeal was that he did everything else well, and the hope was that the offense would come. This season, on slightly below average usage, he was about average in offensive efficiency. And he rebounded well. And he defended well. I wouldn't trade the Porter we've seen in the playoffs for MKG, but I'd trade the regular season Porter for him.

[Severn Hoos]

So this thread got me thinking back on watching Winslow and why I call him a punk. So I went looking for the plays that set that thought in my mind. First is this one vs. Carolina:



Don't see how that was unintentional, didn't get a Flagrant, but whatever.

Then. later in the same game:



Now mind you, this was the game that UNC was leading at the time, but that Duke would go on to win - how Winslow was allowed to finish the game is beyond me. Oh wait, that's right - he's from Duke...

But the one that really fixed my opinion of him (not surprisingly) was this one:



Total punk move. Easily could have injured Anderson. and when Anderson turned on him, watch the hands come up "Don't hit me!" Punk...

So yeah, good player. And one I will root against for the rest of his career.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Anyone else like Anderson at our pick? He can replace Webster/Butler on the roster, and rotate at 2/3 with Porter and Beal. Solid 3 and D player, above the rim athlete, tough as nails, with leadership qualities.

[fishercob]

Chad Ford:

William Hot Springs, Arkansas [via mobile]

What are your thoughts on Bobby Portis? Do you still think he'll be a mid first round?
Chad Ford (1:44 PM)

Almost no way he fails in the NBA. Does everything well and plays really hard. But doubt he's ever an All-Star. His agent, Mark Bartelstein, compares him to Hot Rod Williams (Bartelstein also represented Hot Rod back in the day). I usually don't pay any attention to agent comps because they are filled with hyperbole. But that one feels right on. I'd love to see him on the Wizards. I think that's a perfect fit for player and team at 19.

[Severn Hoos]

Chad Ford:

William Hot Springs, Arkansas [via mobile]

What are your thoughts on Bobby Portis? Do you still think he'll be a mid first round?
Chad Ford (1:44 PM)

Almost no way he fails in the NBA. Does everything well and plays really hard. But doubt he's ever an All-Star. His agent, Mark Bartelstein, compares him to Hot Rod Williams (Bartelstein also represented Hot Rod back in the day). I usually don't pay any attention to agent comps because they are filled with hyperbole. But that one feels right on. I'd love to see him on the Wizards. I think that's a perfect fit for player and team at 19.

Been on the Portis bandwagon all year. Getting him in the draft would be a HUGE win, and I'd be willing to give up a bit to move up if needed. I've used the analogy before - I think he's a more well-rounded Rashard Lewis (from his successful Orlando days, not his washed up Wizards days). Will be bigger and a better rebounder/defender, but not quite the 3-point shooter Shard was.

I'd convince myself to get excited for Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Kevon Looney, and maybe Christian Wood. But I REALLY want Portis.

[Ruzious]

Anyone else like Anderson at our pick? He can replace Webster/Butler on the roster, and rotate at 2/3 with Porter and Beal. Solid 3 and D player, above the rim athlete, tough as nails, with leadership qualities.

Yeah, I'd rather they pick Anderson than choose between Looney and Harrell - which I think might happen.

As the video Sev posted showed, he's not a guy to mess with. What a punk/coward move by Winslow.

[nate33]

Anyone else like Anderson at our pick? He can replace Webster/Butler on the roster, and rotate at 2/3 with Porter and Beal. Solid 3 and D player, above the rim athlete, tough as nails, with leadership qualities.

I'd really prefer to find a stretch-four or a high quality combo guard with our pick. Depth at SF is a low priority concern. Next year, we'll have Beal, Porter and Pierce (and maybe Webster becomes somewhat useful again). The year after that, we'll have Beal, Porter and Durant.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Why would anyone be disappointed in MKG? He wasn't drafted based on being advanced offensively -- he wasn't. His appeal was that he did everything else well, and the hope was that the offense would come. This season, on slightly below average usage, he was about average in offensive efficiency. And he rebounded well. And he defended well. I wouldn't trade the Porter we've seen in the playoffs for MKG, but I'd trade the regular season Porter for him.

I concur.

My musing caused me to reflect on just how profoundly improved Porter has been in the playoffs.

I considered MKG to be a much better prospect than Beal. Based on what I've seen so far, I'd say MKG isn't that far behind Kawhi Leonard, potentially. Injuries and playing in Charlotte have not helped his progress. I agree his defense and his rebounding are strengths. After two regular seasons, I would say Beal has become a higher profile but perhaps still not better prospect than MKG. I think I would keep Beal over MKG only because I think Beal has begun to drive the basketball well, rebounds well, passes well, defends reasonably well, and he's a terrific open three point shooter. I would now rate Bradley slightly more valuable than MKG.

Otto Porter has made me quite optimistic. Playoffs Porter is a beast and I think the beast will not get worse next regular season. He'll be the starting SF for years to come. I think he's better than MKG.

I am shocked to be saying that this soon.

Back to draft thread topic...I would say the Wizards need to draft a PF of the future or a Wall backup, who can really help if Wall has a broken hand or something.

We need to draft a young, stud who's like Jordan Clarkson, who can back up Sessions ....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Chad Ford:

William Hot Springs, Arkansas [via mobile]

What are your thoughts on Bobby Portis? Do you still think he'll be a mid first round?
Chad Ford (1:44 PM)

Almost no way he fails in the NBA. Does everything well and plays really hard. But doubt he's ever an All-Star. His agent, Mark Bartelstein, compares him to Hot Rod Williams (Bartelstein also represented Hot Rod back in the day). I usually don't pay any attention to agent comps because they are filled with hyperbole. But that one feels right on. I'd love to see him on the Wizards. I think that's a perfect fit for player and team at 19.

Been on the Portis bandwagon all year. Getting him in the draft would be a HUGE win, and I'd be willing to give up a bit to move up if needed. I've used the analogy before - I think he's a more well-rounded Rashard Lewis (from his successful Orlando days, not his washed up Wizards days). Will be bigger and a better rebounder/defender, but not quite the 3-point shooter Shard was.

I'd convince myself to get excited for Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Kevon Looney, and maybe Christian Wood. But I REALLY want Portis.

If a team picks anywhere from #10-18, I would exchange with that team the player who the Wizards draft #19 plus two future picks, (a first and a second). That would be the player the other team wants, plus a Wizards future first and second.


I want Portis badly for the Wizards.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Chad Ford:

Been on the Portis bandwagon all year. Getting him in the draft would be a HUGE win, and I'd be willing to give up a bit to move up if needed. I've used the analogy before - I think he's a more well-rounded Rashard Lewis (from his successful Orlando days, not his washed up Wizards days). Will be bigger and a better rebounder/defender, but not quite the 3-point shooter Shard was.

I'd convince myself to get excited for Jerian Grant, Tyus Jones, Kevon Looney, and maybe Christian Wood. But I REALLY want Portis.

If a team picks anywhere from #10-18, I would exchange with that team the player who the Wizards draft #19 plus two future picks, (a first and a second). That would be the player the other team wants, plus a Wizards future first and second.


I want Portis badly for the Wizards.

I agree Portis would be a good pick. You know he'll play hard and be able to contribute right away, pretty much a perfect fit.

Wall, Beal, Porter, Portis, Gortat looks like a real solid foundation, fill in role players like Humphries, Sessions, another 1st in 2016 and major cap space that off season.

[Severn Hoos]

If a team picks anywhere from #10-18, I would exchange with that team the player who the Wizards draft #19 plus two future picks, (a first and a second). That would be the player the other team wants, plus a Wizards future first and second.


I want Portis badly for the Wizards.

I agree Portis would be a good pick. You know he'll play hard and be able to contribute right away, pretty much a perfect fit.

Wall, Beal, Porter, Portis, Gortat looks like a real solid foundation, fill in role players like Humphries, Sessions, another 1st in 2016 and major cap space that off season.

If you really want to dream big, Cousins becomes a Free Agent in 2018. Of course, by that time the Wiz will have had to give new deals to Beal & Porter, plus would have to dump Gortat's last year - and undoubtedly that would put them into Luxury land, even with the ballooning cap. But hey, that's what dreams are made of!

CCJ - I do love Portis and think he's ideal for the Wiz. Giving up a future 1st and 2nd plus this year's pick? Wow, that's tough. I have a feeling we'll need next year's pick, either to get a low cost contributor in the draft or to use as incentive on another deal somewhere. But in terms of value, I see where you're coming from - just think I'd back off if the price got that high.

[gambitx777]

If a team picks anywhere from #10-18, I would exchange with that team the player who the Wizards draft #19 plus two future picks, (a first and a second). That would be the player the other team wants, plus a Wizards future first and second.


I want Portis badly for the Wizards.

I would not trade a pick for Portis, he could be sitting there at 19 and there are still decent options there, Wood is a solid option and a better defender than Portis. I'm not giving up assets in a deep draft like this when there is 0 guarantee that Portis is going to be better than Wood.

[Ruzious]

I wouldn't trade a future 1st to trade up for Portis, but I would for Kaminsky in a heartbeat, but I think I've said that a couple times already.

[Dat2U]

I wouldn't trade a future 1st to trade up for Portis, but I would for Kaminsky in a heartbeat, but I think I've said that a couple times already.

Agreed. I like Portis. I absolutely love Kaminsky. No way Kaminsky isn't a good player. If Olynyk can step in and be a very good big besides being a step & a half slower and having done it for only one year at the college level then Kaminsky is going to put the NBA on notice. Kaminsky moves so much better than Olynyk does. He'll be able to do a lot more as a face up big who can pump fake & taking lumbering bigs off the dribble that have to respect his shot.