2015 Draft Thread - Part 1

[Ruzious]

I wouldn't trade a future 1st to trade up for Portis, but I would for Kaminsky in a heartbeat, but I think I've said that a couple times already.

Agreed. I like Portis. I absolutely love Kaminsky. No way Kaminsky isn't a good player. If Olynyk can step in and be a very good big besides being a step & a half slower and having done it for only one year at the college level then Kaminsky is going to put the NBA on notice. Kaminsky moves so much better than Olynyk does. He'll be able to do a lot more as a face up big who can pump fake & taking lumbering bigs off the dribble that have to respect his shot.

Yeah, he'd be such a good fit... and he won't accidentally pull someone's shoulder out of it's socket.

[Severn Hoos]

hehe... "accidentally" ... hehe. Good one!

[Ruzious]

hehe... "accidentally" ... hehe. Good one!

The WWE is trying to book JR Smith vs Kelly "MMA" Olynyk in a steel cage - refereed by Justice Winslow.

[Sluggerface]

Just watched Kaminsky's DX interview about some of the work he's doing at P3 in california. Those guys have done phenomenal work with guys like Korver and Millsap. Seems pretty dead set on having a good combine, will be interesting to see.

Also said that he was primarily focused on transitioning to be a face-up 4 and not a center.

[Sluggerface]

Man, I had no idea that Cameron Payne had declared. I can't believe some people have Tyus Jones ranked ahead of him either. Payne is the better prospect in almost every way imaginable.

[Ruzious]

Man, I had no idea that Cameron Payne had declared. I can't believe some people have Tyus Jones ranked ahead of him either. Payne is the better prospect in almost every way imaginable.

PIF and I compared them earlier, and we both thought Jones looks to be the better prospect - based on a blend of stats, age and level of competition - not to mention that Jones has - time and again - show up huge at big moments on the largest college stages. Then again, I haven't seen Payne play. But I concur that Payne's a prospect that could very well be a great value.

[Sluggerface]

Man, I had no idea that Cameron Payne had declared. I can't believe some people have Tyus Jones ranked ahead of him either. Payne is the better prospect in almost every way imaginable.

PIF and I compared them earlier, and we both thought Jones looks to be the better prospect - based on a blend of stats, age and level of competition - not to mention that Jones has - time and again - show up huge at big moments on the largest college stages. Then again, I haven't seen Payne play. But I concur that Payne's a prospect that could very well be a great value.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cam ... yne-70346/

Watch Payne's scouting video. Dude's the only reason the NIT was even interesting this year. The only knock on the guy is for playing in a **** conference, but Murray state this year was basically just Payne + 4 other faceless dudes. Jones is always going to be limited by his size, Payne won't have that issue. He just needs to work on strength and his focus.

Also, regardless of the conference or competition he played. A lot of the things that Payne did were just unguardable. Off the dribble threes, floaters, pin point lobs from half-court. These are mostly low percentage plays for the average player, even in a power conference like the ACC. Most defenders will give you those shots, and these were things that Payne did on a consistent basis at a high level of efficiency.

[Ruzious]

Man, I had no idea that Cameron Payne had declared. I can't believe some people have Tyus Jones ranked ahead of him either. Payne is the better prospect in almost every way imaginable.

PIF and I compared them earlier, and we both thought Jones looks to be the better prospect - based on a blend of stats, age and level of competition - not to mention that Jones has - time and again - show up huge at big moments on the largest college stages. Then again, I haven't seen Payne play. But I concur that Payne's a prospect that could very well be a great value.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cam ... yne-70346/

Watch Payne's scouting video. Dude's the only reason the NIT was even interesting this year. The only knock on the guy is for playing in a **** conference, but Murray state this year was basically just Payne + 4 other faceless dudes. Jones is always going to be limited by his size, Payne won't have that issue. He just needs to work on strength and his focus.

Also, regardless of the conference or competition he played. A lot of the things that Payne did were just unguardable. Off the dribble threes, floaters, pin point lobs from half-court. These are mostly low percentage plays for the average player, even in a power conference like the ACC. Most defenders will give you those shots, and these were things that Payne did on a consistent basis at a high level of efficiency.

They're pretty much the same size - maybe Payne's got an inch on Jones - and Payne's no stronger than Jones despite being a little older.

[payitforward]

Sluggerface goes strictly off "the eye test." Guys do things w/ lots of style, he likes them. Numbers are only secondary to him (not to say that he doesn't look at them, but he thinks he can judge a prospect off of what he sees).

Actually, Payne had terrific numbers as a sophomore. But there is no point in comparing him and Jones: he is almost 2 years older than Tyus Jones!

Payne could be quite good; so could Jones, whom I'd take before Payne. Doesn't mean it's 100% tho -- for either of them!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If a team picks anywhere from #10-18, I would exchange with that team the player who the Wizards draft #19 plus two future picks, (a first and a second). That would be the player the other team wants, plus a Wizards future first and second.


I want Portis badly for the Wizards.

I agree Portis would be a good pick. You know he'll play hard and be able to contribute right away, pretty much a perfect fit.

Wall, Beal, Porter, Portis, Gortat looks like a real solid foundation, fill in role players like Humphries, Sessions, another 1st in 2016 and major cap space that off season.

If you really want to dream big, Cousins becomes a Free Agent in 2018. Of course, by that time the Wiz will have had to give new deals to Beal & Porter, plus would have to dump Gortat's last year - and undoubtedly that would put them into Luxury land, even with the ballooning cap. But hey, that's what dreams are made of!

CCJ - I do love Portis and think he's ideal for the Wiz. [b]Giving up a future 1st and 2nd plus this year's pick? Wow, that's tough. I have a feeling we'll need next year's pick, either to get a low cost contributor in the draft or to use as incentive on another deal somewhere. But in terms of value, I see where you're coming from - just think I'd back off if the price got that high[/b.]

You generally have to give to get. (Ernie Grunfeld gives freely at times where the other team gets without giving).

Severn, I think with the core 5 in place once having added Portis; the rest can be acquired cheaply as free agents. Same way Pierce decided on the Wizards, so will others.

There are ways beside the draft to add talent. Robert Covington and Tariq Black were both available for league minimum. Every year there are Gerald Green types in the D League. Rasual Butler helped a lo

I would do what it takes to add Portis.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Man, I had no idea that Cameron Payne had declared. I can't believe some people have Tyus Jones ranked ahead of him either. Payne is the better prospect in almost every way imaginable.

My comment pages up was Payne over Jones.

Payne and Kris Dunn fascinate me. Grant and Wright seem low risk low ceiling but safe picks. I like the scoring PG out of Oregon. ..

I have a lot of evaluating to do. My knowledge base isn't sufficient to differentiate between several good prospects.

[Sluggerface]

PIF and I compared them earlier, and we both thought Jones looks to be the better prospect - based on a blend of stats, age and level of competition - not to mention that Jones has - time and again - show up huge at big moments on the largest college stages. Then again, I haven't seen Payne play. But I concur that Payne's a prospect that could very well be a great value.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cam ... yne-70346/

Watch Payne's scouting video. Dude's the only reason the NIT was even interesting this year. The only knock on the guy is for playing in a **** conference, but Murray state this year was basically just Payne + 4 other faceless dudes. Jones is always going to be limited by his size, Payne won't have that issue. He just needs to work on strength and his focus.

Also, regardless of the conference or competition he played. A lot of the things that Payne did were just unguardable. Off the dribble threes, floaters, pin point lobs from half-court. These are mostly low percentage plays for the average player, even in a power conference like the ACC. Most defenders will give you those shots, and these were things that Payne did on a consistent basis at a high level of efficiency.

They're pretty much the same size - maybe Payne's got an inch on Jones - and Payne's no stronger than Jones despite being a little older.

Payne is an inch taller and has 2 more inches on his wing span. That's a huge difference.

[Sluggerface]

Sluggerface goes strictly off "the eye test." Guys do things w/ lots of style, he likes them. Numbers are only secondary to him (not to say that he doesn't look at them, but he thinks he can judge a prospect off of what he sees).

Actually, Payne had terrific numbers as a sophomore. But there is no point in comparing him and Jones: he is almost 2 years older than Tyus Jones!

Payne could be quite good; so could Jones, whom I'd take before Payne. Doesn't mean it's 100% tho -- for either of them!

Thanks for the hot take pal. I look at the numbers at least five times as much as the average fan. They aren't secondary either. If you give Tyus Jones 2 more years, he's still not going to be able to match what Payne did (57% TS. 40% AST. 32% USG.) even if he transferred to a **** conference. There's a reason he's declaring now. His stock will never be higher than it is now.

[payitforward]

Somehow we've gotten to talking about the draft in the trade thread, where I floated the notion of trading down -- hoping we might come up w/ Cliff Alexander and someone with a high ceiling like Vaughn or Holmes -- and then at #49 either Harvey or Mickey or... ?

We have dead wood to clear from our roster, Nene & Seraphin in particular, but overall our bigs are too old. We are thinner at the 4 & 5 than it might appear from the good play we've gotten in the playoffs, even if only because older players are bigger injury risks (not to mention that Gooden has played at the very top of what he's got to offer, which is great of course, but can't be counted on over a long stretch of games i.e. a season).

We are also thin at both guard positions as the injury to Wall demonstrates. Sessions has been terrific in the playoffs and very good overall since we got him -- he's a bargain at his price for next year. This was a much better trade than I expected. Good for Ernie.

But we do have big problems at the 2. I believe in Bradley Beal, but he hasn't developed in a hurry that's for sure, so he's a question mark (esp. w/ a big pay day approaching for him). And behind Beal, we have only Garrett Temple. Ernie is likely to look for another patchwork veteran in the off-season. But it would be *much* better to have a prospect to develop, and that's why I like Vaughn. As to Harvey, he might be the best shooter in the draft!

[payitforward]

Sluggerface goes strictly off "the eye test." Guys do things w/ lots of style, he likes them. Numbers are only secondary to him (not to say that he doesn't look at them, but he thinks he can judge a prospect off of what he sees).

Actually, Payne had terrific numbers as a sophomore. But there is no point in comparing him and Jones: he is almost 2 years older than Tyus Jones!

Payne could be quite good; so could Jones, whom I'd take before Payne. Doesn't mean it's 100% tho -- for either of them!

Thanks for the hot take pal. I look at the numbers at least five times as much as the average fan. They aren't secondary either. If you give Tyus Jones 2 more years, he's still not going to be able to match what Payne did (57% TS. 40% AST. 32% USG.) even if he transferred to a **** conference. There's a reason he's declaring now. His stock will never be higher than it is now.

Hey -- I thought I was quoting what you said in a previous post. If not, my bad. Maybe I had the wrong guy?

I thought you said exactly that you judged guys on what you *saw* based on your basketball knowledge, and you backed it up by looking at numbers -- especially where you hadn't been able to see as much as you wanted of a prospect. Again, I might be getting you mixed up w/ another poster, and if so, I take it back.

Cameron Payne had an outstanding sophomore year after a meh freshman year. Improvement is a very good sign. The meh Freshman year not so much.

As to Jones, you are certainly right that his stock is high right now. Anyone who does well in the NCAA Tournament, then declares, gets a bump. Still you are cherry-picking on those numbers he'd never "be able to match" aren't you? For one thing, Jones has a .58 TS%

Honestly, it's hard to know w/ either of these guys how good they'll be in the league. The big objection I'd have to your posts relates to your certainty about how way way very very much and incomparably better Payne is than Jones. Being convinced of something doesn't constitute a fact in its favor, if you know what I mean.

[payitforward]

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cam ... yne-70346/

Watch Payne's scouting video. Dude's the only reason the NIT was even interesting this year. The only knock on the guy is for playing in a **** conference, but Murray state this year was basically just Payne + 4 other faceless dudes. Jones is always going to be limited by his size, Payne won't have that issue. He just needs to work on strength and his focus.

Also, regardless of the conference or competition he played. A lot of the things that Payne did were just unguardable. Off the dribble threes, floaters, pin point lobs from half-court. These are mostly low percentage plays for the average player, even in a power conference like the ACC. Most defenders will give you those shots, and these were things that Payne did on a consistent basis at a high level of efficiency.

They're pretty much the same size - maybe Payne's got an inch on Jones - and Payne's no stronger than Jones despite being a little older.

Payne is an inch taller and has 2 more inches on his wing span. That's a huge difference.

...this is kind of what I mean about overstating differences because you like one guy better than the other.

What if I said "Payne is two years older than Jones. That's a huge difference" -- would you buy that?

[Sluggerface]

They're pretty much the same size - maybe Payne's got an inch on Jones - and Payne's no stronger than Jones despite being a little older.

Payne is an inch taller and has 2 more inches on his wing span. That's a huge difference.

...this is kind of what I mean about overstating differences because you like one guy better than the other.

What if I said "Payne is two years older than Jones. That's a huge difference" -- would you buy that?

Apples and oranges. It's not even remotely an overstatement to say that a 2 inch difference in wingspan is a big difference. For comparison, Montrezl Harrell is commonly seen as undersized at 6'8 while 6'10 is considered a good size for a power forward.

Also, I'm not debating the assumption that age matters, but you're making the assumption that Jones would be as good as Payne at the same age (which would have to be the case in order for jones to be the better prospect.)

No other player in the past 5 years has assembled an advanced stat line of 57% TS, 40%AST, 12%TOV, and 32% USG in the NCAA. Even college studs playing in equally as bad conferences (jimmer fredette) couldn't even come close to that. Theoretically, could Jones match that if given the right factors? Sure, anything could happen, but given the precedent, it would be a bad bet.

I have no problem saying that Payne is a better prosect. It has nothing to do with overstatements or an insipid notion of "liking" one prospect more than the other. The numbers don't back it up.

For someone who doesn't seem to put a lot of weight in the eye test, I find it pretty funny that you're trying to prognosticate Tyus's development and use his age as a concession. That's the ultimate eye test if there ever was one.

[Ruzious]

Somehow we've gotten to talking about the draft in the trade thread, where I floated the notion of trading down -- hoping we might come up w/ Cliff Alexander and someone with a high ceiling like Vaughn or Holmes -- and then at #49 either Harvey or Mickey or... ?

We have dead wood to clear from our roster, Nene & Seraphin in particular, but overall our bigs are too old. We are thinner at the 4 & 5 than it might appear from the good play we've gotten in the playoffs, even if only because older players are bigger injury risks (not to mention that Gooden has played at the very top of what he's got to offer, which is great of course, but can't be counted on over a long stretch of games i.e. a season).

We are also thin at both guard positions as the injury to Wall demonstrates. Sessions has been terrific in the playoffs and very good overall since we got him -- he's a bargain at his price for next year. This was a much better trade than I expected. Good for Ernie.

But we do have big problems at the 2. I believe in Bradley Beal, but he hasn't developed in a hurry that's for sure, so he's a question mark (esp. w/ a big pay day approaching for him). And behind Beal, we have only Garrett Temple. Ernie is likely to look for another patchwork veteran in the off-season. But it would be *much* better to have a prospect to develop, and that's why I like Vaughn. As to Harvey, he might be the best shooter in the draft!

Yeah, Sessions and Temple are the backups at both the 2 and the 1. At this point, I'd guess Butler is out of the picture. Vaughn does sound like a nice option if he's there at 49. He doesn't turn 19 till August! So, he'd be a player maybe to let develop in the D League - though he seems to be physically developed enough for the NBA right now.

[gambitx777]

Just watched Kaminsky's DX interview about some of the work he's doing at P3 in california. Those guys have done phenomenal work with guys like Korver and Millsap. Seems pretty dead set on having a good combine, will be interesting to see.

Also said that he was primarily focused on transitioning to be a face-up 4 and not a center.

This might be best for him, he might be better off trying to become a Dirk like player and playing most of his minutes at 4 and not the 5. But he will probably still play some 5. I feel like we have all be going on about Portis and Wood, and those are two great options, but What if Frank falls to us. It's possible! Some teams want that youth, and up side, and there are a lot of those young bigs in the draft..... if by some twist of fate Portis/wood/ frank are sitting there at 19 I think you have to take Frank right? My lord can you imagine EG pulling some magic and we can pull off getting frank and wood or something like that.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Just watched Kaminsky's DX interview about some of the work he's doing at P3 in california. Those guys have done phenomenal work with guys like Korver and Millsap. Seems pretty dead set on having a good combine, will be interesting to see.

Also said that he was primarily focused on transitioning to be a face-up 4 and not a center.

This might be best for him, he might be better off trying to become a Dirk like player and playing most of his minutes at 4 and not the 5. But he will probably still play some 5. I feel like we have all be going on about Portis and Wood, and those are two great options, but What if Frank falls to us. It's possible! Some teams want that youth, and up side, and there are a lot of those young bigs in the draft..... if by some twist of fate Portis/wood/ frank are sitting there at 19 I think you have to take Frank right? My lord can you imagine EG pulling some magic and we can pull off getting frank and wood or something like that.

You take Frank...and pray that Portis doesn't turn into a star.