NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 3

[TheSecretWeapon]

I'm sorta puzzled by the criticism of Harden. He's been excellent in the playoffs overall. He's shooting extremely well from everywhere, and he's getting to the line a) about as often as he did during the regular season (he's down about one free throw attempt per 100 possessions), and b) as much or more than anyone else in the playoffs (4th in FTA per 100 team possessions behind DeAndre Jordan (duh), Dwight Howard, and Isaiah Thomas).

Houston has had two productive players in the postseason -- Harden and Howard. They suffered two key injuries (Beverly and Motiejunas -- not great players, but played key roles), and they're getting not damn much from Ariza, Jones and Smith.

I agree with criticisms of the strategy -- I think it takes Houston too much out of their game, and it's not like they're making the Clippers inefficient. Just play ball.

The other thing is that the Clippers have no bench. All that fouling allows their starters to get more rest while still on the court.

I would have thought so but suddenly Austin Rivers is actually shooting the 3 ball really accurately.
Go figure. He was horrible until he started playing for Daddy.

He was terrible even when he started playing for Daddy -- replacement level with the Clippers during the regular season. It might be that something just clicked in for him, but it seems like a pretty classic Small Sample Size Theater performance.

[nate33]

Considering that every team in the playoffs makes extensive use of statistical analysis, I'm not sure how the playoffs serves as a refutation of "moneyball." Sure, there's the Rockets doing this absurd fouling thing, but then there's the Wizards abruptly doing all of the stuff us stat goobers were suggesting all season and winning.

Fair point.

I think what we are seeing is that teams who are using the moneyball "space and pace" approach are having success in the regular season that exceeds the talent level of their roster. Teams like Atlanta, Houston, Golden State and Boston aren't really as good as their regular season records suggest. In the playoffs, when teams have time to scout the opposition and players are more driven and focused to chase guys off the 3-point line, it's much harder to rely upon the "system" to manufacture points.

I don't think that's a good conclusion at all. Last year's playoffs suggested just the opposite, in fact, when the Spurs won the title with a share-the-ball System approach against those dastardly "shot creators" in Miami.

If anything, I think this year's playoffs are a lesson in the vagaries of ill-timed injury and plain old randomness.

I'd suggest caution in taking to many "lessons" from Small Sample Size Theater.

I think my hypothesis holds true even with the Spurs. Remember that the Spurs play their bench about 20-24 minutes a game during the regular season but still manage to win 55-60 games in the regular season. The reason why their system based approach doesn't decline dramatically in the playoffs is because they can shift more minutes to their starters. Essentially, they are adding more talent than anybody else when they enter the playoffs, which offsets the playoff decline of their system-based approach. As nuposse put it, they have both a good system and the individual talent to create points when the system breaks down.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Fair point.

I think what we are seeing is that teams who are using the moneyball "space and pace" approach are having success in the regular season that exceeds the talent level of their roster. Teams like Atlanta, Houston, Golden State and Boston aren't really as good as their regular season records suggest. In the playoffs, when teams have time to scout the opposition and players are more driven and focused to chase guys off the 3-point line, it's much harder to rely upon the "system" to manufacture points.

I don't think that's a good conclusion at all. Last year's playoffs suggested just the opposite, in fact, when the Spurs won the title with a share-the-ball System approach against those dastardly "shot creators" in Miami.

If anything, I think this year's playoffs are a lesson in the vagaries of ill-timed injury and plain old randomness.

I'd suggest caution in taking to many "lessons" from Small Sample Size Theater.

I think my hypothesis holds true even with the Spurs. Remember that the Spurs play their bench about 20-24 minutes a game during the regular season but still manage to win 55-60 games in the regular season. The reason why their system based approach doesn't decline dramatically in the playoffs is because they can shift more minutes to their starters. Essentially, they are adding more talent than anybody else when they enter the playoffs, which offsets the playoff decline of their system-based approach. As nuposse put it, they have both a good system and the individual talent to create points when the system breaks down.

Could be. There's a way to look at this (of course), but I don't have time to do it. Maybe later in the week.

[Induveca]

Gotta say the entire "moneyball" approach seems to fall apart in the playoffs. Extra adrenaline, physicality and sheer determination by defenders changes a lot of variables. Then there is of course the additional info gleaned by playing the same team 7 consecutive times.

Morey and McHale came across as clueless last night. The early Jordan fouling was idiotic, it's as if the gameplan was determined by an algorithm compiled by IBM's Watson drawing from regular season statistics.

Considering that every team in the playoffs makes extensive use of statistical analysis, I'm not sure how the playoffs serves as a refutation of "moneyball." Sure, there's the Rockets doing this absurd fouling thing, but then there's the Wizards abruptly doing all of the stuff us stat goobers were suggesting all season and winning.

I'm not discounting it, just a reliance on regular season approaches is a big risk, especially relying on long jump shots. With defensive intensity ratcheted up 30-40% those open 3s Golden State and Atlanta become significantly more difficult.

The Wizards? I'm not questioning the results, but we're literally a different team out there. Teams scouting our regular season profile are likely as shocked as we all were when Pierce began manning the PF spot. Shockingly we have two gameplans now.

[Induveca]

Gotta say the entire "moneyball" approach seems to fall apart in the playoffs. Extra adrenaline, physicality and sheer determination by defenders changes a lot of variables. Then there is of course the additional info gleaned by playing the same team 7 consecutive times.

Morey and McHale came across as clueless last night. The early Jordan fouling was idiotic, it's as if the gameplan was determined by an algorithm compiled by IBM's Watson drawing from regular season statistics.

Considering that every team in the playoffs makes extensive use of statistical analysis, I'm not sure how the playoffs serves as a refutation of "moneyball." Sure, there's the Rockets doing this absurd fouling thing, but then there's the Wizards abruptly doing all of the stuff us stat goobers were suggesting all season and winning.

Fair point.

I think what we are seeing is that teams who are using the moneyball "space and pace" approach are having success in the regular season that exceeds the talent level of their roster. Teams like Atlanta, Houston, Golden State and Boston aren't really as good as their regular season records suggest. In the playoffs, when teams have time to scout the opposition and players are more driven and focused to chase guys off the 3-point line, it's much harder to rely upon the "system" to manufacture points.

Read this after I posted, you stated it far more eloquently than I......total agreement.

[nate33]

Considering that every team in the playoffs makes extensive use of statistical analysis, I'm not sure how the playoffs serves as a refutation of "moneyball." Sure, there's the Rockets doing this absurd fouling thing, but then there's the Wizards abruptly doing all of the stuff us stat goobers were suggesting all season and winning.

Fair point.

I think what we are seeing is that teams who are using the moneyball "space and pace" approach are having success in the regular season that exceeds the talent level of their roster. Teams like Atlanta, Houston, Golden State and Boston aren't really as good as their regular season records suggest. In the playoffs, when teams have time to scout the opposition and players are more driven and focused to chase guys off the 3-point line, it's much harder to rely upon the "system" to manufacture points.

Read this after I posted, you stated it far more eloquently than I......total agreement.

Yeah, I'm not at all trying to denigrate the moneyball approach. The fact that it seems to help boost mediocre talent to a successful regular season is a good thing. I'm just saying that it may not be quite as effective in the face of sustained defensive effort and scouting. It's really tiring for power forwards to consistently chase stretch fours out to the 3-point line. Nobody wants to stay in Kyle Korver's or Klay Thompson's jersey for an entire game like Beal and Allen have done. It's really hard and takes intense physical effort and mental concentration. It can be done, but not for 82 games. The space and pace approach preys on that lack of effort. It's a smart thing to do, but it may not be quite as effective in the playoffs.

[tontoz]

The Wizards are taking roughly 50% more 3s than they did in the regular season and are shooting them at 43%, best among the playoff teams. The regular season scouting report on the Wiz has been pretty much rendered useless.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Gotta say the entire "moneyball" approach seems to fall apart in the playoffs. Extra adrenaline, physicality and sheer determination by defenders changes a lot of variables. Then there is of course the additional info gleaned by playing the same team 7 consecutive times.

Morey and McHale came across as clueless last night. The early Jordan fouling was idiotic, it's as if the gameplan was determined by an algorithm compiled by IBM's Watson drawing from regular season statistics.

Considering that every team in the playoffs makes extensive use of statistical analysis, I'm not sure how the playoffs serves as a refutation of "moneyball." Sure, there's the Rockets doing this absurd fouling thing, but then there's the Wizards abruptly doing all of the stuff us stat goobers were suggesting all season and winning.

I'm not discounting it, just a reliance on regular season approaches is a big risk, especially relying on long jump shots. With defensive intensity ratcheted up 30-40% those open 3s Golden State and Atlanta become significantly more difficult.

The Wizards? I'm not questioning the results, but we're literally a different team out there. Teams scouting our regular season profile are likely as shocked as we all were when Pierce began manning the PF spot. Shockingly we have two gameplans now.

League-wide, defensive intensity going up 30-40% has resulted in no league-wide change in offensive efficiency (well, it's going up by 0.1 points per 100 possessions). Last season, offensive efficiency went up in the playoffs by a couple points per 100 possessions).

Not much has changed from the regular season to the playoffs. Pace in the playoffs is a little faster. Teams as a group are shooting more threes (29.3% of FGA vs. 26.8% in the regular season) and making them at the same rate (.350 to .349). eFG is down slightly because 2pt% is down from .485 to .475. FT% is down in the playoffs (maybe because of DeAndre Jordan?) Free throw rate is up a bit, though that could possibly be because of Houston's strategy with Jordan.

I'd again suggest caution in reaching conclusions from such a small sample size.

[Higga]

I wish both the Rockets and Clippers could lose.

Hate both teams, but hate the Rockets a little bit more I guess.

[Kanyewest]

I'm sorta puzzled by the criticism of Harden. He's been excellent in the playoffs overall. He's shooting extremely well from everywhere, and he's getting to the line a) about as often as he did during the regular season (he's down about one free throw attempt per 100 possessions), and b) as much or more than anyone else in the playoffs (4th in FTA per 100 team possessions behind DeAndre Jordan (duh), Dwight Howard, and Isaiah Thomas).

Houston has had two productive players in the postseason -- Harden and Howard. They suffered two key injuries (Beverly and Motiejunas -- not great players, but played key roles), and they're getting not damn much from Ariza, Jones and Smith.

I agree with criticisms of the strategy -- I think it takes Houston too much out of their game, and it's not like they're making the Clippers inefficient. Just play ball.

Harden has been excellent individually offensively. Still, the overall burden of playmaking falls on him especially with Beverly out to make his teammates. I would say that Harden also had his worst game at maybe the worst time of the series in game 1 when the Clippers were without CP3. If Harden had been more consistent, the series could have been 2-2 going back to Houston.

Another valid criticism of Harden could be his defense. In game 3, Harden was the one who was guarding Austin Rivers before he got it going. Although you are right that injuries have hurt the Rockets on both ends of the court

I would have thought the Rockets would have been much better defensively as a unit. Perhaps this falls a bit on injuries, coaching, roster construction (I really would have thought that the Rockets could do better than Pablo Prigioni), and Josh Smith doing Josh Smith things. In addition the Clippers are playing excellent basketball especially at home. The difference could be when the Rockets didn't show up mentally in game 1.

I will say that Morey has improved the Rockets since last season- it might take a year or two of tinkering to get it right- although you have to wonder if Howard can still be as productive as he ages.

[pineappleheadindc]

I don't know why...but I find myself cheering from Memphis.

[Illmatic12]

If GSW loses I will feel a lot better.. idk why

[LyricalRico]

Is it just me, or does it seem like half of the national TV games this year have had a loud, annoying woman getting picked up by the mics? Making what looks like a good game tonight unwatchable for me.

[stevemcqueen1]

I don't know why...but I find myself cheering from Memphis.

I really like that team. Old school, hard nosed, easy to cheer for. But I also like Golden State. That series is the complete opposite of the Clippers-Rockets series, which are the two most unlikable and unwatchable teams in the league for me.

I've been pretty much demoralized by watching the level of execution of the good West teams in the playoffs. It's so superior to that of the final four East teams. We're all frauds and it's a strong case for an open seeding for the playoffs. If they had that this year, an East team wouldn't even crack the final four. It probably would have ended up being Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Spurs.

[thricethefun]

Watching this Bulls Cavs game this Bulls team is just so unimpressive. I honestly think they are the weakest of all the remaining teams, and that's including the Wizards without Wall. If I had to rank the Eastern conference teams it would be:
1. Fully Healthy cavs
2. Wizards with Wall
3. Hawks
4. Cavs w/o Love
5. Wizards w/o Wall
6. Bulls

[Illmatic12]

I don't know why...but I find myself cheering from Memphis.

I really like that team. Old school, hard nosed, easy to cheer for. But I also like Golden State. That series is the complete opposite of the Clippers-Rockets series, which are the two most unlikable and unwatchable teams in the league for me.

I've been pretty much demoralized by watching the level of execution of the good West teams in the playoffs. It's so superior to that of the final four East teams. We're all frauds and it's a strong case for an open seeding for the playoffs. If they had that this year, an East team wouldn't even crack the final four. It probably would have ended up being Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Spurs.

There have been some horrible performances by West teams as well.

Washington w/ Wall would have beaten Dallas or Houston in a 7-game series

[pineappleheadindc]

It's early - 4:30 into the first quarter. But the current HOU-LAC game is a horrible display of basketball Naismith is rolling in his grave.

[FAH1223]

Watching this Bulls Cavs game this Bulls team is just so unimpressive. I honestly think they are the weakest of all the remaining teams, and that's including the Wizards without Wall. If I had to rank the Eastern conference teams it would be:
1. Fully Healthy cavs
2. Wizards with Wall
3. Hawks
4. Cavs w/o Love
5. Wizards w/o Wall
6. Bulls

Cavs going to the Finals

[keynote]

BTW, is *anyone* surprised that an overmatched Bulls team got into a scuffle in a playoff series?

[Ruzious]

BTW, is *anyone* surprised that an overmatched Bulls team got into a scuffle in a playoff series?

It's gotta sting. Gasol was out, but that was balanced by Love being out for Cleveland. And they can't blame it on the officiating for the Gibson ejection, imo. Delavadova (sp?) wasn't completely innocent, and Gibson didn't kick him, but Gibson was being overly physical and glowered over Dela while swinging his leg up. Maybe he shouldn't have been ejected, but I think it was an understandable call. If I was Dela, I'd do just what he did - He wasn't going to just let Gibson physically abuse him.

I think Chicago really showed they weren't championship material by somehow losing 2 games to the Bucks - and that was when they did have Gasol. Thibs may be gone.