Draft Thread: Who do you want with the 13th pick? Stanley Johnson and WCS added..change votes if you want

[drewsprocket]

Where are our insiders? Anyone here know what FO is thinking?

[NavLDO]

Turner wouldn't really be worth drafting then since he wouldn't fit next to Len very well (and Len objectively > Turner at center)

Maybe it's BPA sure, but we want a PF to start next to Len for the future, not someone to back Len up

and no way is Len playing the 4. Same reason WCS wouldn't fit in very well here unless you're willing to give up on Len

I disagree...I want a solid rotation at C, and worry a bit about Len staying healthy. Turner has the highest upside of any big in that range I believe, so you have to take him. Len and him could play at times together, but they would probably struggle to guard many 4s. We have never been a team with the 5 position being one of our strengths. I'd love to have two guys with upside...one might not pan out or just be a solid backup and there are injuries.

right but you're drafting for a permanent future stater

Len is already our starter and was pretty damn effective in what was just his rookie year basically, it's a little early to worry about the injury concerns imo


I understand how good that rotation could be, but even if Turner turns out to be really good, one player is still going to have to take the backseat to the other

How is Len going to feel if we draft someone talented enough and young enough to compete for his job?

Our biggest positional need is a young two-way PF. The chances of getting one not through the draft is pretty low

Anyway though, he's probably not there at 13 anyway. I just don't feel like we would trade up to get him

Maybe I'm oversimplifying this too much, but really, there will be at least 3 PFs on the board at 13 that should be in consideration for us, and unless something changes between now and the draft, I fail to see any reason not to select one of those guys--Looney, Portis, or Lyles, and if you think Kaminsky can/should be a PF, that makes 4. And if you are McD and you don't like any of them at 13, trade back and grab Harrell or Wood, but honestly, how can they NOT pick a PF next month??? Our PF position is barren as a desert, and that's even IF Kieff's name is cleared and he's able to play next year.

We are "set", or at least have good prospects/depth at every position BUT PF--Len/Wright; Warren/PJ/Granger; PJ/Knight/Bledsoe/Goodwin; Knight/Bledsoe/Goodwin--then we've got Kieff/Ummm, and again, with his legal situation, it might be just the "Ummm" part of that.

Am I missing something here?? How can we be looking at anything BUT PF?? If we walk out of that draft without one of the 6 guys I listed up above between pick 13, or a trade back to 15-20(??), OR, some stud PF under the age of 26 via a trade, this team is gonna be in a hurt locker. Please do not pick anything other than a 4 in the draft--nothing else makes a lick of sense, at least as we sit now.

The decision is obvious, IMO, and if not, then please, someone explain to me where I'm off in my analysis above.

[Mr-Al]

Where are our insiders? Anyone here know what FO is thinking?

It's Traxxe time again aw yeah

it's probably too early though

he is our only hope

[gaspar]

right but you're drafting for a permanent future stater

13th pick rarely gives you a permanent starter. If it gives you a good bench player you already should be pleased. It's funny people are complaining about drafting Markieff when he is great player for when he was drafted.
That's why I don't really care much about this pick and wish it will be included in the package for something with more value. Suns have enought bench-caliber players they need a star-caliber player.

Yeah, people really should lower their expectations. Here's a nice chart showing the average number of wins produced by players drafted in the first round in first 5 seasons after selection:



The Morris twins produced 14.2 wins (Keef) and 9.8 (Mook) in their first 4 seasons in the league. If they keep up the production from their last 2 seasons under Hornacek (6.4/4.6 for Keef and 4.2/4.0 for Mook), their wins produced after 5 seasons in the league will be around 19-20 for Markieff and 14 for Marcus. You can figure it out yourself where it puts them on the chart above.

[Mr-Al]

13th pick rarely gives you a permanent starter. If it gives you a good bench player you already should be pleased. It's funny people are complaining about drafting Markieff when he is great player for when he was drafted.
That's why I don't really care much about this pick and wish it will be included in the package for something with more value. Suns have enought bench-caliber players they need a star-caliber player.

Yeah, people really should lower their expectations. Here's a nice chart showing the average number of wins produced by players drafted in the first round in first 5 seasons after selection:



The Morris twins produced 14.2 wins (Keef) and 9.8 (Mook) in their first 4 seasons in the league. If they keep up the production from their last 2 seasons under Hornacek (6.4/4.6 for Keef and 4.2/4.0 for Mook), their wins produced after 5 seasons in the league will be around 19-20 for Markieff and 14 for Marcus. You can figure it out yourself where it puts them on the chart above.

This chart doesn't mean anything

Obviously most #13 picks don't turn out to be great players, but a good GM should go into the lottery thinking that the guy they're picking there will/can be a star or a good starter

However, most of the time the guy doesn't pan out into those expectations

They shouldn't think, hey we should pick this guy because we think he can be a great role player

And people aren't complaining because Kieff is a bad player

They're **** complaining because we passed on Kawhi to get Kieff

and that's a legitimate complaint

[bwgood77]

right but you're drafting for a permanent future stater

13th pick rarely gives you a permanent starter. If it gives you a good bench player you already should be pleased. It's funny people are complaining about drafting Markieff when he is great player for when he was drafted.
That's why I don't really care much about this pick and wish it will be included in the package for something with more value. Suns have enought bench-caliber players they need a star-caliber player.

Yeah, people really should lower their expectations. Here's a nice chart showing the average number of wins produced by players drafted in the first round in first 5 seasons after selection:



The Morris twins produced 14.2 wins (Keef) and 9.8 (Mook) in their first 4 seasons in the league. If they keep up the production from their last 2 seasons under Hornacek (6.4/4.6 for Keef and 4.2/4.0 for Mook), their wins produced after 5 seasons in the league will be around 19-20 for Markieff and 14 for Marcus. You can figure it out yourself where it puts them on the chart above.

It's odd that the 13th pick has overall produced more wins than the 6th, 8th, 11th and 12th picks. And Kieff looks to exceed that good avg of the 13th pick in his 5th year. And Marcus will exceed that avg in his 5th as well, since they are both right at the avg after only 4 years.

[batsmasher]

/off topic
FiveThirtyEight is a fantastic site for analytics. I really need to read it more often.

You all do, great insight on everything, including basketball.
----------------------
However I suppose the data about the Morrii sort of highlights the caution that must be taken with analytics. Just because a player produces wins for a club doesn't necessarily mean it is inducing a winning culture or promoting team winning. Performance is merely a guide for GMs to determine a player's worth to the team and doesn't explain why players like KPerk avoid being traded or amnestied. Winning culture is much more important, and starts from the ground up. I know I'm rehashing old rubbish saying this, but I think it's important given the current situation of the team.

[pidi]

guys we have a 0,6% Chance on the Top Pick, let´s go for the number one pick

[bwgood77]

TEAM RECORD CHANCES 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Minnesota 16-66 250 .250 .215 .178 .357 – – – – – – – – – –
New York 17-65 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123 – – – – – – – – –
Philly 18-64 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040 – – – – – – – –
LA Lakers 21-61 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012 – – – – – – –
Orlando 25-57 88 .088 .097 .107 – .261 .360 .084 .004 – – – – – –
Sac Kings 29-53 63 .063 .071 .081 – – .440 .305 .040 .001 – – – – –
Denver 30-52 43 .043 .049 .058 – – – .600 .232 .018 .000 – – – –
Detroit 32-50 28 .028 .033 .039 – – – – .724 .168 .008 .000 – – –
Charlotte 33-49 17 .017 .020 .024 – – – – – .813 .122 .004 .000 – –
Miami 37-45 11 .011 .013 .016 – – – – – – .870 .089 .002 .000 –
Indiana 38-44 8 .008 .009 .012 – – – – – – – .907 .063 .001 .000
Utah Jazz 38-44 7 .007 .008 .010 – – – – – – – – .935 .039 .000
Phoenix 39-43 6 .006 .007 .009 – – – – – – – – – .960 .018
OKC 45-37 5 .005 .006 .007 – – – – – – – – – – .982

[Mr Puddles]

TEAM RECORD CHANCES 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Minnesota 16-66 250 .250 .215 .178 .357 – – – – – – – – – –
New York 17-65 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123 – – – – – – – – –
Philly 18-64 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040 – – – – – – – –
LA Lakers 21-61 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012 – – – – – – –
Orlando 25-57 88 .088 .097 .107 – .261 .360 .084 .004 – – – – – –
Sac Kings 29-53 63 .063 .071 .081 – – .440 .305 .040 .001 – – – – –
Denver 30-52 43 .043 .049 .058 – – – .600 .232 .018 .000 – – – –
Detroit 32-50 28 .028 .033 .039 – – – – .724 .168 .008 .000 – – –
Charlotte 33-49 17 .017 .020 .024 – – – – – .813 .122 .004 .000 – –
Miami 37-45 11 .011 .013 .016 – – – – – – .870 .089 .002 .000 –
Indiana 38-44 8 .008 .009 .012 – – – – – – – .907 .063 .001 .000
Utah Jazz 38-44 7 .007 .008 .010 – – – – – – – – .935 .039 .000
Phoenix 39-43 6 .006 .007 .009 – – – – – – – – – .960 .018
OKC 45-37 5 .005 .006 .007 – – – – – – – – – – .982

Thanks, that really helped clarify things

[bwgood77]

So we have over a 2% combined chance of getting a top 3 pick. About a 1 in 45 chance.

[Mr Puddles]

So we have over a 2% combined chance of getting a top 3 pick. About a 1 in 45 chance.

I like to think that we have a 50% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Either we get it, or we don't... 50/50

[Fo-Real]

Calling my shot. I know odds are long but I have a feeling suns get lucky and land a top 3 pick.

I like your confidence.

I wish he was a prophet!!!!

[kennydorglas]

Oh boy, here we go!
I'm excited for this ****' lottery odds.

[Flying Colors]

time to get that top 3 pick baybay

[Damkac]

Forget about it, Suns are not Cavs

[SunsRback4Good]

This is the year Suns get a top 6 pick in the Lottery. We Are due and most will be extreremely surprised and ecstatic.

[Flying Colors]

This is the year Suns get a top 6 pick in the Lottery. We Are due and most will be extreremely surprised and ecstatic.

we will get at least a top 8 pick for sure

[SunsRback4Good]

I hope so man. I'm just tired seeing us get 13-14th picks year after year. We are due for some woodoo magic and silverman is the man for it.

[i505]

This is the year Suns get a top 6 pick in the Lottery. We Are due and most will be extreremely surprised and ecstatic.

we will get at least a top 8 pick for sure

They only draw for the top 3. It's top 3 (yeah right) or 13th.