Post#94 » by Luciferswings » Wed May 20, 2015 11:59 pm
I voted Russell with really no expectation anyone would agree, or that the Lakers will do it. I'm pleasantly surprised to see I'm wrong about the former. The thing about Okafor that worries me is that the nearest prototype for him in this league is Al Jefferson. Obviously hopefully a little better, but that's more or less the comparison. That's pretty scary.
I saw a few people post remarks about how they were confused, and surely you take a dominant big man. The thing is, the NBA has been evolving since the 2004-5 rule changes. The removal of handcheck rules, combined with changes to zone rules and defensive 3 seconds, have opened up the court, and made post-ups a less and less efficient option. A lot of people will then ask "well, how come the Lakers won as recently as 2010!" That's mainly due to a second development, which is the introduction of Thibs defensive innovations on the strong side, cutting off the corner 3, etc. Motion offenses and pace and space became much more important post 2004, but it wasn't decisive yet, and teams like the Suns were still being edged out by more talented teams like the Spurs (who could also run pretty well). For motion offenses to really take hold, something else needed to happen. That something else was Thibs strong side defensive systems, which he brought into the picture in 2008. By 2011, when Thibs became head coach and proved his schemes could work on teams without the Celtics personnel, other teams had well and truly stolen his systems, which further hurt the effectiveness of iso-ball (beyond simply making it less efficient, like the earlier rule changes had done). Motion offenses were suddenly so important for an additional reason to efficiency; Thibs schemes couldn't stop it. You can't focus on the strong side or the isolation, because there is no isolation or strong side. Anyone can score from anywhere. No play is necessarily being called up.
Since 2011 we've seen these changes well and truly dominate the NBA mindset. The Mavs won the title taking advantage of both the 2005 changes and the 2011 Thibs defensive principles. The Heat, realising what had happened when they relied to much on iso-ball, adjusted to it. The next 2 years when they won the title they did it going small, with a lot more ball movement and spacing. The Spurs, who everyone thought were finished, had been gradually re-inventing their team since 2011, using the aforementioned principles. They went to the WCFs, the Finals, and then won it all. This years Hawks and Warriors are other great examples. The next stage in the development appears to be what the Bucks are doing; trying to find a way to stop the motion offense using a switching system. So what does all that mean for bigs like Okafor? Nothing good. In the new NBA bigs are meant to roll to the rim, switch a lot, be athletic and quick defenders on the pick and roll (because everything is now a pick and roll of some kind), and score mainly on above the rim put backs, etc. Iso's are relatively rare, because unlike the old days pounding it inside and letting a big "go to work" isn't an efficient shot. It's actually predictable and easier to stop, unless it's relatively rare, and is accompanied by a spacing motion offense (like the Spurs do when they occasionally go to Duncan in the post late in games). That's why Dwight doesn't do any offense anymore, like he wanted to try and do on the Lakers when he was here. Not that Dwight was great at post-ups. The ideal big in the modern NBA is a fast, athletic defender, who has a money jumpshot, and who can roll to the rim and get alley-oops. So, basically the opposite of Okafor. D.Russell reminds me a lot of the draft situation with Chris Paul. Somehow teams had talked themselves into the idea he wasn't a top 2 pick, because he wasn't big or whatever. This is a guy who, if Towns didn't exist, would be my #1 pick.