2015 Draft Thread - Part 1

[payitforward]

Ruzious & CCJ -- what I write below may seem argumentative when you first read it, but I ask you not to take it that way. I have no interest whatever in arguing with you two -- you are two of my very favorite posters here.

Instead, I'm write it, because this is a very important draft for the Wizards. We have become an old team in a big hurry, and our FO seems to have no ability to add genuine young talent except at the very top of the draft. In particular, they seem unable to recognize a bargain prospect if it bites them in the a## !! And that's what Alan Williams looks like to me (though of course I could be wrong).

Williams is not a fast-twitch, high riser athlete. I like him, but I have seen what happened to Mike Sweetney ...

I like your comparisons of Williams. He should make the NBA, but he doesn't fit the "mold" that the NBA is looking for.

You're right on Millsap. Even though everyone said he was unathletic, he had a very good combo of steals and blocks - and I think you were the first person I remember keying in on that as an indication that he's effectively a good NBA athlete. Ever since then, I look at that combo. Actually, that's why I downgrade Dekker. He seems athletic and very talented, but the low steals and blocks make me think twice.

Unfortunately, this is another royal road that leads down the tubes:

Millsap his last year in college -- 2.2 steals, 2.7 blocks (per 40 minutes): total=4.9
Sweetney his last year in college -- 1.8 steals, 3.9 blocks (per 40 minutes): total=5.7

Anyone who's spent a lot of time making decisions about people -- for the purpose of hiring, admitting to some program, whatever -- understands that doing most of the narrowing down via negative decisions -- i.e. "not that guy because..." -- is much more efficient than doing it via positive decisions.

You have 20 people applying for a job, for example. It's a lot quicker to get to 3 final candidates by finding ways to eliminate people than by finding positive ways to pick the 3 finalists. And even once you have the last 3, you usually look for some negative that lets you knock 1 of the 3 off the list. And, *then* you consider the shining positives of those last two to make a choice. (Keep in mind that sometimes, later on, one of those guys you knocked off the list buys your company and fires you! )

Why bring this up? Because it's common in the NBA -- I remember in '12 that Kevin quoted a Wizards FO guy saying that Jae Crowder "doesn't have ideal size"? A way to get him off the list of possible picks at our #32.

That's also what happened to Draymond Green that year. Green is under 6'6" in his stocking feet -- no way he can be an effective NBA 4!.

No matter the stand-out productivity numbers Crowder and Green put up, they fell like bricks into R2 to make room for guys like Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Festus Ezeli & Jeff Taylor. (Note that 4 of those guys -- Melo, Moultrie, Jones & Ezeli fit the mold of "fast-twitch, high riser athlete").

And, Millsap fell to #47 for exactly the same reasons -- under 6'7" in his stocking feet -- definitely doesn't fit the mold of an NBA 4.

Williams has been a top producer since the day he started playing college ball. And the qualities that CCJ points out in another post -- smart, dedicated, thoughtful, etc. -- are why I think he has a shot to be a very good NBA player. You don't find that kind of prospect at #49 very often! Not to mention that at least one young big w/ potential has got to be our biggest need as a team.

[nate33]

Kaminsky is a 4 who can also play center. Portis isn't any more athletic. If anything, I think Kaminsky's more mobile on defense. Like I said, imo the big difference between them is that Kaminsky can create for himself and his teammates. You can run your offense through him and not be so dependent on Wall in that regard. One analyst said Wisconsin had the most efficient I like Portis and would be happy if the Wiz get him. But imo, Kaminsky's better for the reasons that I gave - regardless of any analysis of the quality of PGs they played with.

Video breakdowns like that of DX agree with you that he isn't quite a stiff, but Portis seems better suited to guard 4s then Kaminsky. Kaminsky is a great floor spacer, but with some of the praises of seen regarding him I'm not sure if they are talking about Kaminsky or generic brand Dirk! My general impression of him was more Channing Frye with good passing instincts (I don't see him taking most small ball 4s off the dribble at the next level, he can dribble but he is far from explosive). I think he can be a good pro, off chance as an all star, but I think there are legit reasons why I haven't seen most mocks put him in the top 10. I also don't buy the notion that Kaminsky will rate to be a better pro then Portis. Hell the other guy you had mentioned, Upshaw, might **** on both of em if he gets his act together.

W/e the case, I'm glad there are a lot of competent bigmen to draft in this class, I just hope we position ourselves to acquire one of em. If we trade up to get Kaminsky I'd be cool with it, but Portis too. Myles Turner would be ideal though with his upside and defensive length.

I agree with you. He probably won't be Dirk 2.0. Prime Dirk opened up the floor for his teammates by drawing a double team out on the perimeter as a big. Kaminsky has a looong way to go to do that. I even agree that Portis might have a similar or even slightly better career. And the problem with Upshaw is not his talent level. The reason I still want Kaminsky most is fit; we need a stretch 4 and Kaminsky is the best available for that role. At this point we don't have to shoot for the moon, instead we need complementary players to the nice core we already have. Plus I have a little more confidence than you in his driving game due to his size. If those small 4s don't close out hard he'll be able to shoot over them and that should open up his driving where he can make use of his footwork. Still Portis would be fine as well.
Turner is interesting. A combination of rim protection and floor spacing, yikes! Obviously Kaminsky is more ready now but he might have the most upside of all of them. Do you think he'll be able to play the 4 some, at least earlier in his career?

Kaminsky has a low and rather slow release on his jumper. The comparison to Dirk doesn't work because Dirk made an entire career out of his unique and unblockable shooting form.

Kaminsky scares me a bit because he was such a late bloomer. He was a nobody as a sophomore, playing just 10 minutes a game. Portis was almost as good as a freshmen as Kaminsky was as a junior. On the other hand, Kaminsky is NBA ready right now. Even if Portis pans out to be a slightly better pro in the long run, it's likely that Kaminsky will be the better pro for the majority of his rookie contract.

I really like that Kaminsky's numbers demonstrate a high basketball IQ. He passes extremely well, he doesn't turn it over, he gets steals, and he doesn't foul. He's a reliable defensive rebounder but a terrible offensive rebounder, which suggests he understands spacing and positioning, but also suggests that he's much less athletic than his peers (or maybe it's an indication that he plays a lot on the perimeter). He's definitely more Kelly Olynyk than Kevin Love.

I wouldn't mind Kaminsky, but I think his NBA ceiling is going to be capped by his lack of athleticism and length. I don't think he'll be able to get his shot up in isolation situations and will ultimately have to find a role as a role playing scorer off of pick-and-pops and so forth. While that's not unusual for a big, I don't like having a poor defender who is only a "system guy" on offense. If you're going to have a guy who can only score within the flow of the offense, he should at least be a plus defender or a demon on the glass. Kaminsky is neither. Is Kaminsky going to give us more than Kris Humphries on offense?

[Ruzious]

Ruzious, I can't believe Dekker is projected to go higher than Kaminsky. Wow...

I didn't like Dekker in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, he's got length and athleticism but the dirty work stats are not there. I agree with you.

I generally shy away from white guards and wings. They have a really poor track record in the league. I tend to think they get a touch overrated because they're white yet they can still keep up with the black guys. The first thing I do with a white guard/wing prospect is look at the lane agility score. If it isn't exceptional, I conclude that they can't defend at the NBA level, which makes them a one-dimensional player and probably not a starter.

Hinrich had a great lane agility score. Redick's was good too. Morrison's was terrible. Doug McDermott's was bad. The exception to this rule was Hayward. He had a lousy lane agility score and now appears to be a top 5ish SF in the league.

FWIW, Dekker has an exceptional lane agility score, the best in this draft class for a guy with his length. I'm not saying I love him as a prospect, but it really appears that athleticism isn't going to be what holds him back from competing in the NBA.

I'm talking about effective basketball athleticism - not tests on drills. I think you make a big mistake if you rely too much on those tests. They have some uses, but they're not at all a complete measure of athleticism. Relying too much on those numbers leads to a lot of mistakes. People still think Joe Alexander was a great athlete, when he was a basketball stiff.

As far as shying away from players based on their skin color - at least your honest.

[nate33]

Ruzious & CCJ -- what I write below may seem argumentative when you first read it, but I ask you not to take it that way. I have no interest whatever in arguing with you two -- you are two of my very favorite posters here.

Instead, I'm write it, because this is a very important draft for the Wizards. We have become an old team in a big hurry, and our FO seems to have no ability to add genuine young talent except at the very top of the draft. In particular, they seem unable to recognize a bargain prospect if it bites them in the a## !! And that's what Alan Williams looks like to me (though of course I could be wrong).

Alan Williams puts up impressive numbers for a guy who is way too fat for basketball. That surely is an indication that he has strength, reflexes and coordination that offset that extra 20 pounds that he is carrying around. There's no way he could be productive in the NBA at that weight, however. It would be intriguing to see how his athleticism improves if he's 20 pounds lighter. It's concerning that he hasn't lost the weight in preparation to get drafted. If he can't lose it now, when will he?

He has a 75% FT percentage which suggests that he is intrinsically a pretty good shooter who should develop a midrange game. However his 46% 2P percentage suggests he has trouble getting his shot off even against the competition in the Big West Conference. I'd have real doubts about his game translating to the NBA unless he gets much quicker and springier by dropping weight.

[payitforward]

Ruzious, I can't believe Dekker is projected to go higher than Kaminsky. Wow...

I didn't like Dekker in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, he's got length and athleticism but the dirty work stats are not there. I agree with you.

I generally shy away from white guards and wings. They have a really poor track record in the league. I tend to think they get a touch overrated because they're white yet they can still keep up with the black guys. The first thing I do with a white guard/wing prospect is look at the lane agility score. If it isn't exceptional, I conclude that they can't defend at the NBA level, which makes them a one-dimensional player and probably not a starter.

Hinrich had a great lane agility score. Redick's was good too. Morrison's was terrible. Doug McDermott's was bad. The exception to this rule was Hayward. He had a lousy lane agility score and now appears to be a top 5ish SF in the league.

FWIW, Dekker has an exceptional lane agility score, the best in this draft class for a guy with his length. I'm not saying I love him as a prospect, but it really appears that athleticism isn't going to be what holds him back from competing in the NBA.

I'm talking about effective basketball athleticism - not tests on drills. I think you make a big mistake if you rely too much on those tests. They have some uses, but they're not at all a complete measure of athleticism. Relying too much on those numbers leads to a lot of mistakes. People still think Joe Alexander was a great athlete, when he was a basketball stiff.

As far as shying away from players based on their skin color - at least your honest.

Wow!! This is a new wrinkle on "negative decision-making" -- to "shy away from white guards & wings." Especially if it's based on the idea that blacks are (somehow) "naturally athletic."

Totally agree about tests -- and measurements as well. Aside from being misleading, they also can't even be relied on. One guy tested at the Combine w/ 2.5 inches more standing reach than he tested at Portsmouth.

As to guys like Joe Alexander -- someone said (referring to Javale I think) "the game is not called 'running & jumping;' the game is called 'basketball.'" Don't remember who said that....

[Ruzious]

Ruzious & CCJ -- what I write below may seem argumentative when you first read it, but I ask you not to take it that way. I have no interest whatever in arguing with you two -- you are two of my very favorite posters here.

Instead, I'm write it, because this is a very important draft for the Wizards. We have become an old team in a big hurry, and our FO seems to have no ability to add genuine young talent except at the very top of the draft. In particular, they seem unable to recognize a bargain prospect if it bites them in the a## !! And that's what Alan Williams looks like to me (though of course I could be wrong).

Williams is not a fast-twitch, high riser athlete. I like him, but I have seen what happened to Mike Sweetney ...

I like your comparisons of Williams. He should make the NBA, but he doesn't fit the "mold" that the NBA is looking for.

You're right on Millsap. Even though everyone said he was unathletic, he had a very good combo of steals and blocks - and I think you were the first person I remember keying in on that as an indication that he's effectively a good NBA athlete. Ever since then, I look at that combo. Actually, that's why I downgrade Dekker. He seems athletic and very talented, but the low steals and blocks make me think twice.

Unfortunately, this is another royal road that leads down the tubes:

Millsap his last year in college -- 2.2 steals, 2.7 blocks (per 40 minutes): total=4.9
Sweetney his last year in college -- 1.8 steals, 3.9 blocks (per 40 minutes): total=5.7

Anyone who's spent a lot of time making decisions about people -- for the purpose of hiring, admitting to some program, whatever -- understands that doing most of the narrowing down via negative decisions -- i.e. "not that guy because..." -- is much more efficient than doing it via positive decisions.

You have 20 people applying for a job, for example. It's a lot quicker to get to 3 final candidates by finding ways to eliminate people than by finding positive ways to pick the 3 finalists. And even once you have the last 3, you usually look for some negative that lets you knock 1 of the 3 off the list. And, *then* you consider the shining positives of those last two to make a choice. (Keep in mind that sometimes, later on, one of those guys you knocked off the list buys your company and fires you! )

Why bring this up? Because it's common in the NBA -- I remember in '12 that Kevin quoted a Wizards FO guy saying that Jae Crowder "doesn't have ideal size"? A way to get him off the list of possible picks at our #32.

That's also what happened to Draymond Green that year. Green is under 6'6" in his stocking feet -- no way he can be an effective NBA 4!.

No matter the stand-out productivity numbers Crowder and Green put up, they fell like bricks into R2 to make room for guys like Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Festus Ezeli & Jeff Taylor. (Note that 4 of those guys -- Melo, Moultrie, Jones & Ezeli fit the mold of "fast-twitch, high riser athlete").

And, Millsap fell to #47 for exactly the same reasons -- under 6'7" in his stocking feet -- definitely doesn't fit the mold of an NBA 4.

Williams has been a top producer since the day he started playing college ball. And the qualities that CCJ points out in another post -- smart, dedicated, thoughtful, etc. -- are why I think he has a shot to be a very good NBA player. You don't find that kind of prospect at #49 very often! Not to mention that at least one young big w/ potential has got to be our biggest need as a team.

No offense taken, PIF. The problem with Sweetney wasn't his talent. I think he could have been a heckuva pro if it weren't for his weight. He was worse than former Bullets John "Hotplate" Williams and Kevin Duckworth in that regard. He was able to keep it down at G-town, but after that, he was cupcake city. Pancakes Blvd? Both Green and Millsap are short but have wingspans over 7'1. Honestly, I didn't think Green would be more than a backup type - he had good college numbers but not at Millsap's level, and he was about 20 lbs lighter than Millsap in college - though I think they're about the same now. Crowder's a solid player - I actually thought he'd be a little better than he has been. Of all the players mentioned, Green is the surprise to me. He's actually been effective as a small-ball center - not just as a PF. You can't measure energy, and I think he plays with more energy than anyone else does.

[payitforward]

Ruzious & CCJ -- what I write below may seem argumentative when you first read it, but I ask you not to take it that way. I have no interest whatever in arguing with you two -- you are two of my very favorite posters here.

Instead, I'm write it, because this is a very important draft for the Wizards. We have become an old team in a big hurry, and our FO seems to have no ability to add genuine young talent except at the very top of the draft. In particular, they seem unable to recognize a bargain prospect if it bites them in the a## !! And that's what Alan Williams looks like to me (though of course I could be wrong).

Alan Williams puts up impressive numbers for a guy who is way too fat for basketball. That surely is an indication that he has strength, reflexes and coordination that offset that extra 20 pounds that he is carrying around. There's no way he could be productive in the NBA at that weight, however. It would be intriguing to see how his athleticism improves if he's 20 pounds lighter. It's concerning that he hasn't lost the weight in preparation to get drafted. If he can't lose it now, when will he?

He has a 75% FT percentage which suggests that he is intrinsically a pretty good shooter who should develop a midrange game. However his 46% 2P percentage suggests he has trouble getting his shot off even against the competition in the Big West Conference. I'd have real doubts about his game translating to the NBA unless he gets much quicker and springier by dropping weight.

Poor Alan Williams! We have dissected him; he's on the floor in pieces! And it's all my fault!

He shot @52% as a junior; must have been a better player a year ago. Then again, that year he was only 69% from the foul line, so less likely that he'd develop a mid-range game? We'll see how he does in the league.

[nate33]

As far as shying away from players based on their skin color - at least your honest.

It's not so much shying away from players, it's looking at their hype with a healthy does of salt. If the "consensus" loves a white wing player, I'm reflexively more skeptical.

The wing players are the most specialized positions in the NBA. The primary requirement is crazy length, reflexes, and quick-twitch athleticism because you've got to defend in space. Offensively, you are typically asked only to shoot, make back door cuts, and finish on the break. White guys tend to lack quick-twitch athleticism and length. They're not cut out for the position. I'd say history backs me up on this. There aren't a lot of white guys earning minutes at SG or SF.

I don't think my anti-white prejudice applies at the other positions. There are a variety of ways to succeed at the PG, PF and C position, and not all of them require exceptional quick twitch athleticism and length. A combination of strength, size and skill can offset a lack of quickness at those positions.

[payitforward]

Changing the subject to Robert Upshaw -- here's a video interview w/ the kid: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Robert-Upshaw-6447/

He comes off as intelligent and pretty poised. I'll be interested to know what you guys think after viewing it.

[nate33]

Ruzious & CCJ -- what I write below may seem argumentative when you first read it, but I ask you not to take it that way. I have no interest whatever in arguing with you two -- you are two of my very favorite posters here.

Instead, I'm write it, because this is a very important draft for the Wizards. We have become an old team in a big hurry, and our FO seems to have no ability to add genuine young talent except at the very top of the draft. In particular, they seem unable to recognize a bargain prospect if it bites them in the a## !! And that's what Alan Williams looks like to me (though of course I could be wrong).

Alan Williams puts up impressive numbers for a guy who is way too fat for basketball. That surely is an indication that he has strength, reflexes and coordination that offset that extra 20 pounds that he is carrying around. There's no way he could be productive in the NBA at that weight, however. It would be intriguing to see how his athleticism improves if he's 20 pounds lighter. It's concerning that he hasn't lost the weight in preparation to get drafted. If he can't lose it now, when will he?

He has a 75% FT percentage which suggests that he is intrinsically a pretty good shooter who should develop a midrange game. However his 46% 2P percentage suggests he has trouble getting his shot off even against the competition in the Big West Conference. I'd have real doubts about his game translating to the NBA unless he gets much quicker and springier by dropping weight.

Poor Alan Williams! We have dissected him; he's on the floor in pieces! And it's all my fault!

He shot @52% as a junior; must have been a better player a year ago. Then again, that year he was only 69% from the foul line, so less likely that he'd develop a mid-range game? We'll see how he does in the league.

PIF, your constant snide remarks really drag down the board. One can't even engage you in conversation without having to put up with insults and derogatory responses.

[Ruzious]

As to guys like Joe Alexander -- someone said (referring to Javale I think) "the game is not called 'running & jumping;' the game is called 'basketball.'" Don't remember who said that....

That classic line was from Lamar Odom - when Javale was trying out for the USA team.

[hands11]

Something to consider when questioning who they will draft.

One of the biggest needs was a strong, athletic, energy player who could defend S4s out to the perimeter. Think, can they guard Milsap and slow down LeBron.

This is a defensive team first and foremost and its a team being build on character, consistency and team continuity of personalities.

Needing an S4 doesn't mean the best offensive S4. I think the team can already generate offense. They have Wall, Beal, and Gortat and Otto can hit 3s along with other 2nd level contributors. The problem is more, get a better Gooden. Gooden with better D. Hump with a 3 but more athletic. More that long armed 6-7/6-8 D Green type.

I think they will lean toward the better defensive S4 who has enough offense to shoot the 3, but who doesn't have to be a lock down 3 shooter per se but who has some handles, can make FTs, strong and can defend S4s. The shooting can improve in time but the personality, the person, the defense, maturity, motor.. those things will be valued highly. Plus in their plans is to get KD in 2016.

Think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson more then Portis. I'm not on the Portis bus. I don't think they would pick him even if he is in their range.

If they go guard, I really like the options. Tyus Jones is really interesting as are some other in that range.

But I could see something like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and a guard in the 2nd. MICHAEL FRAZIER ?

Now if they are feeling more risky and project based long term.. Wood or Robert Upshaw. Wood is a 3-4 year project. Not sure the timing is right for that. I think they need to S4 defender to contribute some right away in spot duty. I think they are less likely to go in this direction.

[hands11]

As far as shying away from players based on their skin color - at least your honest.

It's not so much shying away from players, it's looking at their hype with a healthy does of salt. If the "consensus" loves a white wing player, I'm reflexively more skeptical.

The wing players are the most specialized positions in the NBA. The primary requirement is crazy length, reflexes, and quick-twitch athleticism because you've got to defend in space. Offensively, you are typically asked only to shoot, make back door cuts, and finish on the break. White guys tend to lack quick-twitch athleticism and length. They're not cut out for the position. I'd say history backs me up on this. There aren't a lot of white guys earning minutes at SG or SF.

I don't think my anti-white prejudice applies at the other positions. There are a variety of ways to succeed at the PG, PF and C position, and not all of them require exceptional quick twitch athleticism and length. A combination of strength, size and skill can offset a lack of quickness at those positions.

Just like a corner back in the NFL. You see more white safeties then corner backs.

It is what it is. There will always be exceptions so white dudes should be excluded. Its based on profiles of skills and basketball attributes, not skin. Look to the skills and physical profile, not the skin. Then let the pieces fall where they fall. If it end up more black dudes end up better in that position, then that is what you get.

[payitforward]

Alan Williams puts up impressive numbers for a guy who is way too fat for basketball. That surely is an indication that he has strength, reflexes and coordination that offset that extra 20 pounds that he is carrying around. There's no way he could be productive in the NBA at that weight, however. It would be intriguing to see how his athleticism improves if he's 20 pounds lighter. It's concerning that he hasn't lost the weight in preparation to get drafted. If he can't lose it now, when will he?

He has a 75% FT percentage which suggests that he is intrinsically a pretty good shooter who should develop a midrange game. However his 46% 2P percentage suggests he has trouble getting his shot off even against the competition in the Big West Conference. I'd have real doubts about his game translating to the NBA unless he gets much quicker and springier by dropping weight.

Poor Alan Williams! We have dissected him; he's on the floor in pieces! And it's all my fault!

He shot @52% as a junior; must have been a better player a year ago. Then again, that year he was only 69% from the foul line, so less likely that he'd develop a mid-range game? We'll see how he does in the league.

PIF, your constant snide remarks really drag down the board. One can't even engage you in conversation without having to put up with insults and derogatory responses.

Actually I was making fun of myself, nate -- I guess I wasn't being clear enough about that.

Maybe you're feeling sensitive after posting about shying away from white wings and guards? I did say something negative about that statement -- which could come off as racist, I guess, if one wanted to bend it that way -- which I don't. But you probably didn't mean that black guys have "naturally" got more "fast-twitch" etc., did you?

You could always put me on "ignore" if you don't like what I write.

[Ruzious]

Something to consider when questioning who they will draft.

One of the biggest needs was a strong, athletic, energy player who could defend S4s out to the perimeter. Think, can they guard Milsap and slow down LeBron.

This is a defensive team first and foremost and its a team being build on character, consistency and team continuity of personalities.

I think they will lean toward the better defensive S4 who has enough offense to shoot the 3, but who doesn't have to be a lock down 3 shooter per se. The shooting can improve in time but the personality, the person, the defense.. those things will be valued highly. Plus in their plans is to get KD in 2016.

Think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson more then Portis. I'm not on the Portis bus. I don't think they would pick him.

If they go guard, I really like the options.

I could see something like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and a guard in the 2nd. MICHAEL FRAZIER ?

Now if they are feeling more risky and project based long term.. Wood or Robert Upshaw.

Hollis-Jefferson (can I call him RHJ?) is a heckuva basketball player. He's really a lot like MKG - just a tad smaller. His jump shot is a problem, but it looks more fixable than MKG's. Still, more and more teams are built around wings being outstanding 3 point shooters, so he's looked at lower than he probably would have been in past years. Teams like the Wiz will likely think he's good, but he's not a fit.

I honestly don't know anything about Frazier, but if he doesn't get picked I will say - Down goes Frazier! to myself. I would not say it out loud on the internet.

[nate33]

Poor Alan Williams! We have dissected him; he's on the floor in pieces! And it's all my fault!

He shot @52% as a junior; must have been a better player a year ago. Then again, that year he was only 69% from the foul line, so less likely that he'd develop a mid-range game? We'll see how he does in the league.

PIF, your constant snide remarks really drag down the board. One can't even engage you in conversation without having to put up with insults and derogatory responses.

Actually I was making fun of myself, nate -- I guess I wasn't being clear enough about that.

Maybe you're feeling sensitive after posting about shying away from white wings and guards? I did say something negative about that statement -- which could come off as racist, I guess, if one wanted to bend it that way -- which I don't. But you probably didn't mean that black guys have "naturally" got more "fast-twitch" etc., did you?

You could always put me on "ignore" if you don't like what I write.

Unfortunately, as mod of this board, I can't put you on ignore. I'd prefer that you stop making negative, rude or sarcastic remarks whenever someone has a different viewpoint than you. In the last two days I've already seen you do it with barelyawake, CCJ and myself, and there are certainly others.

Learn how to disagree without insulting others. That's what mature people do.

[payitforward]

Something to consider when questioning who they will draft.

One of the biggest needs was a strong, athletic, energy player who could defend S4s out to the perimeter. Think, can they guard Milsap and slow down LeBron.

This is a defensive team first and foremost and its a team being build on character, consistency and team continuity of personalities.

I think they will lean toward the better defensive S4 who has enough offense to shoot the 3, but who doesn't have to be a lock down 3 shooter per se. The shooting can improve in time but the personality, the person, the defense.. those things will be valued highly. Plus in their plans is to get KD in 2016.

Think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson more then Portis. I'm not on the Portis bus. I don't think they would pick him.

If they go guard, I really like the options.

I could see something like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and a guard in the 2nd. MICHAEL FRAZIER ?

Now if they are feeling more risky and project based long term.. Wood or Robert Upshaw.

But isn't R H-J a straight up 3? Not a tweener or S4? Maybe you're thinking of him as likely a guard in the league....

[payitforward]

PIF, your constant snide remarks really drag down the board. One can't even engage you in conversation without having to put up with insults and derogatory responses.

Actually I was making fun of myself, nate -- I guess I wasn't being clear enough about that.

Maybe you're feeling sensitive after posting about shying away from white wings and guards? I did say something negative about that statement -- which could come off as racist, I guess, if one wanted to bend it that way -- which I don't. But you probably didn't mean that black guys have "naturally" got more "fast-twitch" etc., did you?

You could always put me on "ignore" if you don't like what I write.

Unfortunately, as mod of this board, I can't put you on ignore. I'd prefer that you stop making negative, rude or sarcastic remarks whenever someone has a different viewpoint than you. In the last two days I've already seen you do it with barelyawake, CCJ and myself, and there are certainly others.

Learn how to disagree without insulting others. That's what mature people do.

Nice to know you're keeping tabs on me, Nate -- but in fact I made no rude or insulting marks in your direction at all (though you've certainly just made a series of them in my direction!).

If you disagree, PM me rather than clogging the thread. I promise it'll be a friendly exchange, and I am quite "correctible" and would count on you to be the same. Look forward to it.

[hands11]

Something to consider when questioning who they will draft.

One of the biggest needs was a strong, athletic, energy player who could defend S4s out to the perimeter. Think, can they guard Milsap and slow down LeBron.

This is a defensive team first and foremost and its a team being build on character, consistency and team continuity of personalities.

I think they will lean toward the better defensive S4 who has enough offense to shoot the 3, but who doesn't have to be a lock down 3 shooter per se. The shooting can improve in time but the personality, the person, the defense.. those things will be valued highly. Plus in their plans is to get KD in 2016.

Think Rondae Hollis-Jefferson more then Portis. I'm not on the Portis bus. I don't think they would pick him.

If they go guard, I really like the options.

I could see something like Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and a guard in the 2nd. MICHAEL FRAZIER ?

Now if they are feeling more risky and project based long term.. Wood or Robert Upshaw.

Hollis-Jefferson (can I call him RHJ?) is a heckuva basketball player. He's really a lot like MKG - just a tad smaller. His jump shot is a problem, but it looks more fixable than MKG's. Still, more and more teams are built around wings being outstanding 3 point shooters, so he's looked at lower than he probably would have been in past years. Teams like the Wiz will likely think he's good, but he's not a fit.

I honestly don't know anything about Frazier, but if he doesn't get picked I will say - Down goes Frazier! to myself. I would not say it out loud on the internet.

I hear ya... What I would like to introduce is not consensus logic but...

This is a defensive team first.
S4 does not have to mean a scoring S4. It can mean a defensive S4.
We are targeting one of the best players in the league in KD in 2016. We are drafting role players.
Team chemistry, maturity, fit is really important to this organization.

Beal just shut down Kyle. Had we been able to defense Milsap better, that would have made a huge difference.

So while maybe more teams are looking at scoring S4s, other teams will be looking at how to stop them.

I am just suggesting, for this team and what I think they might do, I think they will look at the best defensive S4 role player who fits their mold of maturity and personality who score less vs more scoring and less of those of those other things.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson checks a lot of boxes.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Rondae-Hollis-Jefferson-6466/
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Draymond-Green-5859/

The need for a Green type is more understood now so those type that were in the 2nd are now moving up into the first.

[payitforward]

Ruzious & CCJ -- what I write below may seem argumentative when you first read it, but I ask you not to take it that way. I have no interest whatever in arguing with you two -- you are two of my very favorite posters here.

Instead, I'm write it, because this is a very important draft for the Wizards. We have become an old team in a big hurry, and our FO seems to have no ability to add genuine young talent except at the very top of the draft. In particular, they seem unable to recognize a bargain prospect if it bites them in the a## !! And that's what Alan Williams looks like to me (though of course I could be wrong).

I like your comparisons of Williams. He should make the NBA, but he doesn't fit the "mold" that the NBA is looking for.

You're right on Millsap. Even though everyone said he was unathletic, he had a very good combo of steals and blocks - and I think you were the first person I remember keying in on that as an indication that he's effectively a good NBA athlete. Ever since then, I look at that combo. Actually, that's why I downgrade Dekker. He seems athletic and very talented, but the low steals and blocks make me think twice.

Unfortunately, this is another royal road that leads down the tubes:

Millsap his last year in college -- 2.2 steals, 2.7 blocks (per 40 minutes): total=4.9
Sweetney his last year in college -- 1.8 steals, 3.9 blocks (per 40 minutes): total=5.7

Anyone who's spent a lot of time making decisions about people -- for the purpose of hiring, admitting to some program, whatever -- understands that doing most of the narrowing down via negative decisions -- i.e. "not that guy because..." -- is much more efficient than doing it via positive decisions.

You have 20 people applying for a job, for example. It's a lot quicker to get to 3 final candidates by finding ways to eliminate people than by finding positive ways to pick the 3 finalists. And even once you have the last 3, you usually look for some negative that lets you knock 1 of the 3 off the list. And, *then* you consider the shining positives of those last two to make a choice. (Keep in mind that sometimes, later on, one of those guys you knocked off the list buys your company and fires you! )

Why bring this up? Because it's common in the NBA -- I remember in '12 that Kevin quoted a Wizards FO guy saying that Jae Crowder "doesn't have ideal size"? A way to get him off the list of possible picks at our #32.

That's also what happened to Draymond Green that year. Green is under 6'6" in his stocking feet -- no way he can be an effective NBA 4!.

No matter the stand-out productivity numbers Crowder and Green put up, they fell like bricks into R2 to make room for guys like Fab Melo, John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Arnett Moultrie, Perry Jones, Festus Ezeli & Jeff Taylor. (Note that 4 of those guys -- Melo, Moultrie, Jones & Ezeli fit the mold of "fast-twitch, high riser athlete").

And, Millsap fell to #47 for exactly the same reasons -- under 6'7" in his stocking feet -- definitely doesn't fit the mold of an NBA 4.

Williams has been a top producer since the day he started playing college ball. And the qualities that CCJ points out in another post -- smart, dedicated, thoughtful, etc. -- are why I think he has a shot to be a very good NBA player. You don't find that kind of prospect at #49 very often! Not to mention that at least one young big w/ potential has got to be our biggest need as a team.

No offense taken, PIF. The problem with Sweetney wasn't his talent. I think he could have been a heckuva pro if it weren't for his weight. He was worse than former Bullets John "Hotplate" Williams and Kevin Duckworth in that regard. He was able to keep it down at G-town, but after that, he was cupcake city. Pancakes Blvd? Both Green and Millsap are short but have wingspans over 7'1. Honestly, I didn't think Green would be more than a backup type - he had good college numbers but not at Millsap's level, and he was about 20 lbs lighter than Millsap in college - though I think they're about the same now. Crowder's a solid player - I actually thought he'd be a little better than he has been. Of all the players mentioned, Green is the surprise to me. He's actually been effective as a small-ball center - not just as a PF. You can't measure energy, and I think he plays with more energy than anyone else does.

Appreciate it....

And I agree that Green has been a pleasant surprise. Williams has that possible vibe to me. The nice thing about R2 is that you can afford to take chances, because the cost of being wrong is so low. The other nice thing is that as GMs pick off of tests and measurements, guys who aren't going to work out as basketball players rise into R1, and guys who are going to work out fall into R2.

To me, this is what makes high R2 picks among the most valuable assets a GM can have.