Dr Spaceman wrote:SideshowBob wrote:A suggestion. But I think it would be good if everyone gave their personal POY criteria before submitting a ballot. I think a lot of the debate will boil down to differences in approach rather than differences in opinions on players, so perhaps outlining criteria beforehand will clear up philosophical divides so we can focus the discussion on the players instead.
Just a thought.
Disappointed that we haven't seen many responses to this, because I think it's important. Well, pot meet kettle, so here's mine:
I meant to respond, just been preoccupied. Anyway, I'll try to lay out my criteria, roughly in order (though there's overlap between categories).....
1a.
Quality of Play. I know this is a vague statement, but it basically is an attempt to rate "how good" they are. This generally involves a combination of statistical evaluation, eye-test, and absorbing assessments made by others. wrt the latter, obviously some judgment over the credibility of source is required. And statistical evaluation needs to be tempered by circumstance/context.
1b.
Impact on team success. Preaching to the choir on this site, but obv this isn't as simple as just at looking at the win% and playoff success; though I do somewhat look at box and advanced metrics in light of team success. However, teammates and system (of various qualities) obv play into general team success, so I can't take that too far. But this is something that is noteworthy, for instance, when you see the drop off in individual numbers of Kevin Love this year, or Chris Bosh when he went to Miami. It wasn't that they'd suffered an abrupt decline; it's just that they suddenly found themselves surrounded by big talents, whereas previously they'd sort of been on an island by themselves.
Anyway, fortunately these days we have plenty of other tools to look at for impact on scoring margin (again: preaching to the choir). But fwiw, I don't look at RAPM as gospel on this criterion. Where ever I have the time, I like to look at multiple indicators: PI RAPM, NPI RAPM, and even BPM, as well as with/without records, with/without SRS, with/without ORtg and/or DRtg.
**I list 1a and 1b basically side by side, fairly equal in importance to me (and if I were to give negligibly higher weight to one, it's probably the factors listed in 1a). I know impact data is hot stuff right now, but I won't cast aside consideration of a player who statistically and to the eye-test appears very good, but whose impact data is lackluster. My opinion of him will be somewhat "less than what would be expected" based on his box and advanced numbers; but I don't take impact indicators as the final (or even the most important) tool for evaluation. The reasons are largely twofold: 1) noise. RAPM studies attempt to illuminate some very relevant and important stuff, but it's doesn't always get it exactly right. And other with/without studies can be muddied by extenuating circumstances (e.g. other players who were injured, team was in a slump or hot-streak, etc).
And 2) player application. Take as potential example, Carmelo Anthony: statistically he looks a big deal, media hypes him as a super-star.....but he's widely disregarded around here based on relatively pedestrian RAPM and impact data. Perhaps we can say that for all the box numbers he puts up, it's not terribly effective in influencing the scoring margin. How much of that is on him, and how much of that is on coaching/organization and the way they choose to utilize him? idk, but it's entirely possible he could be much more effective (as far as impact on the scoring margin) if utilized in a "less primacy" manner, perhaps alongside a stellar on-ball facilitator, and in circumstance where he's asked to put more focus on defense, etc (I hear his supporters talking about his performance with Team USA, etc).
But the thing is we'll never know. Even if he was perfectly willing to take that type of role, the franchises in the league will never voluntarily utilize a prime Melo in that fashion. Because as much as WE HERE like to call winning the singular goal, the fact is that winning is often NOT (perhaps ALWAYS not) the singular goal of franchise management......selling tickets is quite often a major consideration. Volume-scoring stars who are well-marketed (like Melo) sell tickets and jerseys, etc, are often sought after for that reason as much as for their potential to bring home championships. Or even if a championship is the singular goal, some management groups do a terrible job of constructing the winning formula.
I'm not necessarily saying that poor application is exactly what we're seeing happen with Melo's career. But I do think this sort of thing happens, and can be, in part, responsible for a seeming "disconnect" between impact data and more conventional stats.
And "labeled" role players, otoh, are rarely misused in this fashion. They are generally acquired for specific, well-defined, and vital roles on a team. Their utilization is more often perfectly in line with their skill-set (which I feel can inflate their standing where impact data is concerned).2.
Durability and minutes. These sort of tie directly into the above categories. They have to be considered in evaluating the other factors. RAPM of +4 in 25 mpg is not as impressive or relevant as +3 in 37 mpg, imo. Ditto when scrutinizing other per minute or per possession metrics. Minutes need to be part of the equation.
And obv I'm more impressed with someone who's in there game in, game out, night after night, as opposed to the guy who missed 12-20 games.
3.
Replaceability. Making up a word

, but basically I'm talking about how well a player's role (even if his role is not utilizing him appropriately, or maximizing his effectiveness---see above comments) can be replicated by someone else, and/or how "common" a player-type seems in the league (more common generally equates to "more replaceable" to me).
Notes on rs vs. playoffs: I weight a single playoff game heavier than a single rs game, but in general I don't weight the playoffs as heavily as many appear to. And overall, the rs is more important to me (much larger sample size).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire