All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#521 » by PaulieWal » Fri May 22, 2015 4:00 am

RSCD3_ wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:Harden outplayed curry tonight.

And then he costs them the game.


I don't think he outplayed him per se. Harden was great and I would say the best player on the floor but Curry was damn good too. So far both have had a great first 2 games.


I don't know harden had 9 assists vs 2 turnovers and curry had 6 of each.

5 more points on the same relative TS%
Curry was -7, harden was +12
Harden had 4 steals/blocks, curry had 1

I'm not saying it's by a huge margin but I felt like Harden had the better game.


No, for sure. My definition of outplaying is when you play a much better game than the other player. I thought Curry was damn good too in this game. The TOs were bad but I am not going to put much stock into a single game +/_.

All of that being said Harden has had a great 2 games to start the WCF.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#522 » by RSCD3_ » Fri May 22, 2015 4:00 am

On a side note the Ariza-smith-Howard trio is really good defensively. Bringing these 3 back with harden and Beverley should lead to a top 3 defense at worst assuming normal health.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#523 » by RSCD3_ » Fri May 22, 2015 4:06 am

PaulieWal wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
I don't think he outplayed him per se. Harden was great and I would say the best player on the floor but Curry was damn good too. So far both have had a great first 2 games.


I don't know harden had 9 assists vs 2 turnovers and curry had 6 of each.

5 more points on the same relative TS%
Curry was -7, harden was +12
Harden had 4 steals/blocks, curry had 1

I'm not saying it's by a huge margin but I felt like Harden had the better game.


No, for sure. My definition of outplaying is when you play a much better game than the other player. I thought Curry was damn good too in this game. The TOs were bad but I am not going to put much stock into a single game +/_.

All of that being said Harden has had a great 2 games to start the WCF.


Different definitions I guess

I figure the gap in this game is parallel to the gap I have curry over harden. I think this series evens up as GS has been able to play really physical on defense ( draymond green hip check that got him the rebound and fouled was single point difference ) and harden will get home calls.

Houston winning the next two wouldn't surprise me, these teams are pretty close and I think this isn't even their true potential because their missing a few guys.

That relates to how I see harden and I'm as not worried as others about him making a meh team into quite good but not able to make a good team great.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#524 » by PaulieWal » Fri May 22, 2015 4:15 am

RSCD3_ wrote:Different definitions I guess

I figure the gap in this game is parallel to the gap I have curry over harden. I think this series evens up as GS has been able to play really physical on defense ( draymond green hip check that got him the rebound and fouled was single point difference ) and harden will get home calls.

Houston winning the next two wouldn't surprise me, these teams are pretty close and I think this isn't even their true potential because their missing a few guys.

That relates to how I see harden and I'm as not worried as others about him making a meh team into quite good but not able to make a good team great.


Yes, definitely different definitions :).

To me outplaying is when you are much better than the other guy. I think Curry was a bit better overall in game 1 and Harden a bit better in game 2.

I do think that GSW hasn't played their best though so far. They have been sloppy with their passing and their defensive intensity hasn't been there for a full game yet.

I still think GSW takes this in 6.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#525 » by Doctor MJ » Fri May 22, 2015 5:34 am

Tell you what regardless of what else happens, it seems pretty hard to fathom at this point doubting that Harden can do his thing against tough competition.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#526 » by PaulieWal » Fri May 22, 2015 7:06 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Tell you what regardless of what else happens, it seems pretty hard to fathom at this point doubting that Harden can do his thing against tough competition.


Agreed. Not gonna lie, I don't doubt that Harden is a great player but I have still felt that something about him was *off* in the playoffs but the first two games have been fantastic and he's showing complete offensive mastery (scorer + playmaker) without relying on FTs and doing a bit of everything. I don't see the Rockets winning here but in the future with better pieces and health they are going to be real contenders if Harden can do this year in, year out in the PS.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#527 » by theonlyclutch » Fri May 22, 2015 8:45 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Tell you what regardless of what else happens, it seems pretty hard to fathom at this point doubting that Harden can do his thing against tough competition.


Ditto for me, curiously enough he seems to have swapped places with Curry on the scoring/playmaking continuum in the PS, with Steph actually scoring more and taking more offensive primacy than Harden, who is doing more playmaking to get shots for teammates.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#528 » by colts18 » Fri May 22, 2015 3:49 pm

GSP wrote:
He did it with a much worse supporting cast than Steph, against much superior competition as the underdog in every series (except maybe Portland)

This is revisionist history. The Mavs were heavy favorites vs the Thunder.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#529 » by Texas Chuck » Fri May 22, 2015 4:19 pm

colts18 wrote:
GSP wrote:
He did it with a much worse supporting cast than Steph, against much superior competition as the underdog in every series (except maybe Portland)

This is revisionist history. The Mavs were heavy favorites vs the Thunder.


yeah the Thunder had more talent than the Mavs that year, but they weren't the superior team that year. All their best players were just kids. All of Dallas' best player were very experienced veterans and the coaching edge was significant as well. I remember most people picking the Mavs in that series.

I think people forget just how good a team Dallas really was in 2011 because they didn't have but the one star. Take away the 2-9 stretch when Tuff Juice was lost and Dirk went down and I think people view that Mav team in a different light.

The Portland series was close to a pick em, but that was due to Dallas' disappointments in the years leading up to that as much as anything. With Roy a shell of himself Dallas was clearly the superior side. No one thought they would beat the Lakers, but that was in part due to LAL being the 2x defending champ and that they have historically owned Dallas to epic proportions. And then in the Finals most guys picked the Heat, but the Mavs got some love too.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#530 » by Ballerhogger » Fri May 22, 2015 4:33 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Tell you what regardless of what else happens, it seems pretty hard to fathom at this point doubting that Harden can do his thing against tough competition.


Agreed. Not gonna lie, I don't doubt that Harden is a great player but I have still felt that something about him was *off* in the playoffs but the first two games have been fantastic and he's showing complete offensive mastery (scorer + playmaker) without relying on FTs and doing a bit of everything. I don't see the Rockets winning here but in the future with better pieces and health they are going to be real contenders if Harden can do this year in, year out in the PS.

hes had history if bad playoffs performances when he was in OKC vs the heat in the finals
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#531 » by Onus » Fri May 22, 2015 5:06 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Tell you what regardless of what else happens, it seems pretty hard to fathom at this point doubting that Harden can do his thing against tough competition.


Ditto for me, curiously enough he seems to have swapped places with Curry on the scoring/playmaking continuum in the PS, with Steph actually scoring more and taking more offensive primacy than Harden, who is doing more playmaking to get shots for teammates.


The way GSW plays doesn't necessarily revolve around Curry getting the first assist but rather him getting hockey assists. The Warriors had over 30 assists last game but the ball doesn't stick in Curry's hands.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#532 » by bondom34 » Fri May 22, 2015 5:18 pm

Onus wrote:
theonlyclutch wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Tell you what regardless of what else happens, it seems pretty hard to fathom at this point doubting that Harden can do his thing against tough competition.


Ditto for me, curiously enough he seems to have swapped places with Curry on the scoring/playmaking continuum in the PS, with Steph actually scoring more and taking more offensive primacy than Harden, who is doing more playmaking to get shots for teammates.


The way GSW plays doesn't necessarily revolve around Curry getting the first assist but rather him getting hockey assists. The Warriors had over 30 assists last game but the ball doesn't stick in Curry's hands.

True, but Harden isn't far behind Curry in secondary assists per game. He was at 1.6 per game this season, Curry at 1.8.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#533 » by Onus » Fri May 22, 2015 5:30 pm

bondom34 wrote:
Onus wrote:
theonlyclutch wrote:
Ditto for me, curiously enough he seems to have swapped places with Curry on the scoring/playmaking continuum in the PS, with Steph actually scoring more and taking more offensive primacy than Harden, who is doing more playmaking to get shots for teammates.


The way GSW plays doesn't necessarily revolve around Curry getting the first assist but rather him getting hockey assists. The Warriors had over 30 assists last game but the ball doesn't stick in Curry's hands.

True, but Harden isn't far behind Curry in secondary assists per game. He was at 1.6 per game this season, Curry at 1.8.


Kerr also preaches ball movement, so no one player will normally get a high volume of assists consistently.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#534 » by bondom34 » Fri May 22, 2015 5:35 pm

Onus wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Onus wrote:
The way GSW plays doesn't necessarily revolve around Curry getting the first assist but rather him getting hockey assists. The Warriors had over 30 assists last game but the ball doesn't stick in Curry's hands.

True, but Harden isn't far behind Curry in secondary assists per game. He was at 1.6 per game this season, Curry at 1.8.


Kerr also preaches ball movement, so no one player will normally get a high volume of assists consistently.

True, but Houston has very little else on the roster capable of really doing much damage offensively. I'm not putting Harden ahead of Curry, but what he did this season was pretty good.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#535 » by CBA » Fri May 22, 2015 5:38 pm

I haven't really had any movement thus far, though that's what I expected:

1. Harden
Curry
Paul
Lebron
Davis
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#536 » by Onus » Fri May 22, 2015 5:44 pm

bondom34 wrote:
Onus wrote:
bondom34 wrote:True, but Harden isn't far behind Curry in secondary assists per game. He was at 1.6 per game this season, Curry at 1.8.


Kerr also preaches ball movement, so no one player will normally get a high volume of assists consistently.

True, but Houston has very little else on the roster capable of really doing much damage offensively. I'm not putting Harden ahead of Curry, but what he did this season was pretty good.


Oh definitely, I don't want to take away credit from what Harden is doing, because it's damn right amazing. But he gets to pound the ball and probe for the entirety of a possession and he's got great vision if you cheat. But the Warriors offense isn't based off of that. We'll routinely have multiple guys with 5 assists because everyone is touching the ball, Curry doesn't get the whole possession to probe with the ball. He plays off the ball a lot. So of course his assist numbers aren't going to align with someone who's dominating the ball.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#537 » by trex_8063 » Fri May 22, 2015 10:00 pm

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SideshowBob wrote:A suggestion. But I think it would be good if everyone gave their personal POY criteria before submitting a ballot. I think a lot of the debate will boil down to differences in approach rather than differences in opinions on players, so perhaps outlining criteria beforehand will clear up philosophical divides so we can focus the discussion on the players instead.

Just a thought.


Disappointed that we haven't seen many responses to this, because I think it's important. Well, pot meet kettle, so here's mine:


I meant to respond, just been preoccupied. Anyway, I'll try to lay out my criteria, roughly in order (though there's overlap between categories).....

1a. Quality of Play. I know this is a vague statement, but it basically is an attempt to rate "how good" they are. This generally involves a combination of statistical evaluation, eye-test, and absorbing assessments made by others. wrt the latter, obviously some judgment over the credibility of source is required. And statistical evaluation needs to be tempered by circumstance/context.
1b. Impact on team success. Preaching to the choir on this site, but obv this isn't as simple as just at looking at the win% and playoff success; though I do somewhat look at box and advanced metrics in light of team success. However, teammates and system (of various qualities) obv play into general team success, so I can't take that too far. But this is something that is noteworthy, for instance, when you see the drop off in individual numbers of Kevin Love this year, or Chris Bosh when he went to Miami. It wasn't that they'd suffered an abrupt decline; it's just that they suddenly found themselves surrounded by big talents, whereas previously they'd sort of been on an island by themselves.
Anyway, fortunately these days we have plenty of other tools to look at for impact on scoring margin (again: preaching to the choir). But fwiw, I don't look at RAPM as gospel on this criterion. Where ever I have the time, I like to look at multiple indicators: PI RAPM, NPI RAPM, and even BPM, as well as with/without records, with/without SRS, with/without ORtg and/or DRtg.

**I list 1a and 1b basically side by side, fairly equal in importance to me (and if I were to give negligibly higher weight to one, it's probably the factors listed in 1a). I know impact data is hot stuff right now, but I won't cast aside consideration of a player who statistically and to the eye-test appears very good, but whose impact data is lackluster. My opinion of him will be somewhat "less than what would be expected" based on his box and advanced numbers; but I don't take impact indicators as the final (or even the most important) tool for evaluation. The reasons are largely twofold: 1) noise. RAPM studies attempt to illuminate some very relevant and important stuff, but it's doesn't always get it exactly right. And other with/without studies can be muddied by extenuating circumstances (e.g. other players who were injured, team was in a slump or hot-streak, etc).

And 2) player application. Take as potential example, Carmelo Anthony: statistically he looks a big deal, media hypes him as a super-star.....but he's widely disregarded around here based on relatively pedestrian RAPM and impact data. Perhaps we can say that for all the box numbers he puts up, it's not terribly effective in influencing the scoring margin. How much of that is on him, and how much of that is on coaching/organization and the way they choose to utilize him? idk, but it's entirely possible he could be much more effective (as far as impact on the scoring margin) if utilized in a "less primacy" manner, perhaps alongside a stellar on-ball facilitator, and in circumstance where he's asked to put more focus on defense, etc (I hear his supporters talking about his performance with Team USA, etc).
But the thing is we'll never know. Even if he was perfectly willing to take that type of role, the franchises in the league will never voluntarily utilize a prime Melo in that fashion. Because as much as WE HERE like to call winning the singular goal, the fact is that winning is often NOT (perhaps ALWAYS not) the singular goal of franchise management......selling tickets is quite often a major consideration. Volume-scoring stars who are well-marketed (like Melo) sell tickets and jerseys, etc, are often sought after for that reason as much as for their potential to bring home championships. Or even if a championship is the singular goal, some management groups do a terrible job of constructing the winning formula.
I'm not necessarily saying that poor application is exactly what we're seeing happen with Melo's career. But I do think this sort of thing happens, and can be, in part, responsible for a seeming "disconnect" between impact data and more conventional stats.

And "labeled" role players, otoh, are rarely misused in this fashion. They are generally acquired for specific, well-defined, and vital roles on a team. Their utilization is more often perfectly in line with their skill-set (which I feel can inflate their standing where impact data is concerned).


2. Durability and minutes. These sort of tie directly into the above categories. They have to be considered in evaluating the other factors. RAPM of +4 in 25 mpg is not as impressive or relevant as +3 in 37 mpg, imo. Ditto when scrutinizing other per minute or per possession metrics. Minutes need to be part of the equation.
And obv I'm more impressed with someone who's in there game in, game out, night after night, as opposed to the guy who missed 12-20 games.

3. Replaceability. Making up a word :), but basically I'm talking about how well a player's role (even if his role is not utilizing him appropriately, or maximizing his effectiveness---see above comments) can be replicated by someone else, and/or how "common" a player-type seems in the league (more common generally equates to "more replaceable" to me).

Notes on rs vs. playoffs: I weight a single playoff game heavier than a single rs game, but in general I don't weight the playoffs as heavily as many appear to. And overall, the rs is more important to me (much larger sample size).
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#538 » by bondom34 » Fri May 22, 2015 10:04 pm

Actually, I'm w/ trex on the RS vs. PS debate. I don't weigh the playoffs nearly as heavily as some do, its a sample size issue as well as game planning to me.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#539 » by PaulieWal » Fri May 22, 2015 11:14 pm

bondom34 wrote:Actually, I'm w/ trex on the RS vs. PS debate. I don't weigh the playoffs nearly as heavily as some do, its a sample size issue as well as game planning to me.


This. I was having a discussion with Q and the more I think about it the more I am starting to weigh the RS more heavily. I know ultimately when you win a lot of games in the RS it means 'nothing' and the ultimate goal is to win a title but still 82 games are far more indicative of the quality of play than the playoffs. Yes, in playoffs you are likely facing better teams but you are also limited to a small sample size and there's a lot of noise, bad/good match-ups, random luck, injuries, hell one bad quarter can doom you as we saw with CP in game 6 and I took some heat for that viewpoint. That still doesn't mean CP wasn't a top 5 player for me this season. He absolutely was.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#540 » by Dr Spaceman » Sat May 23, 2015 2:30 pm

bondom34 wrote:Actually, I'm w/ trex on the RS vs. PS debate. I don't weigh the playoffs nearly as heavily as some do, its a sample size issue as well as game planning to me.


Okay, but I don't think it's ever wise to chalk performance down to game planning, because that implies the player doesn't have a diverse enough skill set, or that what the player does well is largely stoppable. At least in my opinion.

Generally my policy is to develop an evaluation of the player during the season and then make adjustments based on what happens in the playoffs. Guys won't generally make huge jumps based on playoff play unless what they do clearly shows that my regular season picture of them was wrong.
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