ST: Mariners vs Jays May 22-24

[dagger]

Originally I wanted the Jays to move Sanchez to the bullpen, but seeing how this season is getting damn near close to being a washout (contrary to what the folks who value pythag say), I'd just let him ride it out the rest of the season in the rotation as long as he's healthy. It's not like he's blocking anyone, and if the Jays want to accelerate a rebuild then they'll need some luck (Sanchez panning out as a starter, even as an end of the rotation one, would qualify). If the Jays were 1st place in the East right now my leash on Sanchez would be smaller, but clearly this team is not going anywhere this season. Keep throwing him out there and hope he figures something out.

The Jays are 4.5 games back in the east. You don't need run differential to think the season isn't close to a washout yet.

You wait another month to assess whether the season is irredeemably lost. Right now,in any case, there wouldn't be much of a trade market on which to base a fire sale. Reyes is back tomorrow, Travis could be back a week tomorrow. The concern, heading into the first half of June when the Jays face more NL than AL teams is whether Bautista can play right field.

[Michael Bradley]

We have seen this story before. "Only X amount of games back with four teams to pass" is not a good spot to be in, especially with this pitching staff. I hope they go on a massive run to end the season and end this stinkin playoff drought, but unless every other team in the East finishes below .500, this seems like a division where one team will eventually break from the pack and the others will hover around .500 (give or take). The Jays will have to play .650 baseball the rest of the year. It's not bloody likely, unfortunately.

[TheDoctor]

Is there some kind of bizarro stat that shows how frequently a guy scores when he actually gets on base?

Pillar would chart remarkably well, considering his awful OBP.

[torontoaces04]

Is there some kind of bizarro stat that shows how frequently a guy scores when he actually gets on base?

Pillar would chart remarkably well, considering his awful OBP.

You mean runs scored?

[Fairview4Life]

Is there some kind of bizarro stat that shows how frequently a guy scores when he actually gets on base?

Pillar would chart remarkably well, considering his awful OBP.

You mean runs scored?

He meant Runs Scored / (Hits + Walks + Hit by Pitch).

[PowerPlant1]

Jays are now +10 this week (despite 3-4 record) and +20 on the season (despite 20-26 record). First in run differential in the AL East and 3rd in the AL.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/index.php?dispgroup=div&standings_sort=pct2

Unluckiest team in the MLB, other than Oakland who is on pace for more errors than any team ever. We should have 4-5 more wins.

Run differential is a flawed stat.

The only thing I think that I would agree with here based on luck is the toll the injuries have taken on the offense. Having a healthy Travis, Reyes and Bautista (in the field and hitting with full health) would make a huge difference in those close games they haven't been winning.

But really, the biggest difference in the close games is the pitching. The bp sucks and cannot be trusted to hold leads. The starting staff cannot compete with good rotations. There is no legitimate ace to throw in against the opponents legit #1 and 2 starters.

Point is that run differential is not the mark of an unlucky team. Lopsided wins against the opponents' subpar pitchers does not mean that they are unlucky in close games. The Jays aren't good enough to win the close games and that is why they lose them.

[BigLeagueChew]

we need a new series thread

1. Jose Reyes (S) SS
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
4. Russell Martin (R) C
5. Chris Colabello (R) LF
6. Justin Smoak (S) 1B
7. Ezequiel Carrera (L) RF
8. Kevin Pillar (R) CF
9. Ryan Goins (L) 2B

[Santoki]

we need a new series thread

1. Jose Reyes (S) SS
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
4. Russell Martin (R) C
5. Chris Colabello (R) LF
6. Justin Smoak (S) 1B
7. Ezequiel Carrera (L) RF
8. Kevin Pillar (R) CF
9. Ryan Goins (L) 2B

Just go on and make it BLC. I don't think it really matters at this point.