All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

[bondom34]

Yeah not carching Curry, but making a push on Harden/CP. Not efficient, but had a fantastic game and willing them to win. Hate to say it, but it was a Westbrookish stat line.

Damn...To see LeBron's game being described as "Westbrookish", instead of Westbrook putting up "LeBronish" statlines...Maybe we should reconsider how good we think Russ really is?

Westbrookish is inefficient mind-blowing stat line, LeBronish is efficient mind-blowing stat line. It certainly looks like more Westbrookish to me

If they lost last night, I was debating starting a thread asking if his triple doubles are hurting the cavs .

Seriously, amazing game but I couldn't help thinking it.

[Doctor MJ]

Yeah, they just need to simultaneously be the greatest shooter of all-time by a landslide. Piece of cake.

Um...shouldn't the best player on a championship team be amongst the greatest at...some aspect of basketball?


So is this the next level of argument? Oh, well Stephen Curry is an exception - he's the greatest shooter! The point still stands, if you're a point guard you can't be the best player on a championship team, you're just too small! Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson were also all time great shooters too I suppose.


Hey, a small forward cannot be the best player on a championship team unless they are phenomenal passers. That disqualifies all small forwards then, all like three of them.

Right. If you keep saying "This is the rule, and every time there's an exception it's because they are exceptional.", then the rule becomes meaningless.

The reality is that the "rule" here has always been absurd. Saying it confuses offense & defense together without proper granular thinking is giving it too much credit as it's literally not thinking about offense or defense at all, just about RINGZ!

When you build around a point guard, you do so because he can help you have a very effective offense, and all evidence suggests that there's no mirage in this. There are point guards who can do this quite well. The concern, and the reason why in general we'd all prefer to build around other types of players, is defense. Get a top tier big and he may be able to be your anchor on both sides of the floor, who wouldn't want that? But whether you build your offense around a point guard or a big or a wing, you still have a point guard-sized guy on the floor, so there's no reason to think that building around those other types of guys saves you your biggest weakness.

Of course all of this could leave one pondering that perhaps the best way to build a team is to have no on Steph Curry's size at all on your roster. Good luck with that.

[Doctor MJ]

I know Spaceman disagrees, but Lebron. Just Lebron. I'm telling you I don't see how he catches Curry, but I for one am extremely impressed.

For me LeBron is the big candidate still in play. If he and the Cavs look like a total joke next series, then he'll likely remain behind Curry, Harden, and Paul for me. On the other hand if he plays well enough in that series, I'd have to put him at #1.

Interestingly, this puts me similar to where I was last year except that there are more spots in play. With LeBron being the reigning King of the NBA, it's relatively easy to convince me that he should rise relative to his regular season standing, just as it was with Jordan or Shaq back in the day.

[fuzzy_dunlop]

^
I don't get this Doc, Lebron is rocking a 49% TS in the playoffs, why would you "have to put him at 1" if that were to happen? Way too much winning (and recency) bias IMO.

[Texas Chuck]

^
I don't get this Doc, Lebron is rocking a 49% TS in the playoffs, why would you "have to put him at 1" if that were to happen? Way too much winning (and recency) bias IMO.

Why only focus on scoring efficiency? And sorry, but winning in the playoffs is really really important and unless you feel like Lebron doesn't deserve the bulk of the credit for that despite the efficiency numbers it should count for something significant.

This whole "winning bias" thing has swung way too far back the other way when people think we should ignore whose team is winning and advancing. I mean the point of the activity is to help your team win the game not reach some arbitrarily acceptable stat line. And make no mistake, Lebron is doing lots of things to help the Cavs win games/series.

[Clyde Frazier]

^
I don't get this Doc, Lebron is rocking a 49% TS in the playoffs, why would you "have to put him at 1" if that were to happen? Way too much winning (and recency) bias IMO.

Why only focus on scoring efficiency? And sorry, but winning in the playoffs is really really important and unless you feel like Lebron doesn't deserve the bulk of the credit for that despite the efficiency numbers it should count for something significant.

This whole "winning bias" thing has swung way too far back the other way when people think we should ignore whose team is winning and advancing. I mean the point of the activity is to help your team win the game not reach some arbitrarily acceptable stat line. And make no mistake, Lebron is doing lots of things to help the Cavs win games/series.

Yeah, I just feel like what he's doing right now is going above expectations with love out and an injured kyrie in and out of the lineup. You can't take the lack of efficiency at face value. He's doing too much else to carry them right now for that to significantly matter against him.

[Doctor MJ]

Damn...To see LeBron's game being described as "Westbrookish", instead of Westbrook putting up "LeBronish" statlines...Maybe we should reconsider how good we think Russ really is?

Westbrookish is inefficient mind-blowing stat line, LeBronish is efficient mind-blowing stat line. It certainly looks like more Westbrookish to me

If they lost last night, I was debating starting a thread asking if his triple doubles are hurting the cavs .

Seriously, amazing game but I couldn't help thinking it.

Ha. Well in all seriousness:

Generally speaking, the regression data isn't in love with LeBron's rebounds either. Got Buckets FFAPM for defensive rebounding for the current span (the last 2 seasons):

Average = 50th percentile
LeBron = 35th
Westbrook = 12th

Obviously that says Westbrook is worse, but I'm not trying to rub his nose in it, I'm just putting it there so everyone knows the context. Westbrook's penchant for going after defensive rebounds likely really hurts the team's defensive rebounding for reasons that I've gone into before, but LeBron doesn't look a lot better. As such in general it's worth questioning whether LeBron's triple doubles are overrated too...

That said in this case, I think the "triple double" label and the impression it makes is exactly right. LeBron had more offensive rebounds than the entire Atlanta Hawk team. That's just devastating, and has absolutely everything to do with why the Cavs one despite LeBron quite frankly not scoring that efficiently.

It's also noteworthy I think in recognizing why it's so hard to "stop" LeBron. His body is just freakish, and so if one thing isn't working as well for him, he can make up for it in other ways the way the Currys and the Hardens of the world just cannot.

[fuzzy_dunlop]

Uh it was shorthand for "he hasn't been THAT good", didn't feel like reciting all of his advanced stats, but they aren't exactly transcendent. Note that they have been in past playoffs, so this has nothing to do with impugning Lebron's overall postseason resume, he simply hasn't been his prime self this year.

It's just that the east continues to be trash, so he's gonna make the finals again.

[JLei]

^
I don't get this Doc, Lebron is rocking a 49% TS in the playoffs, why would you "have to put him at 1" if that were to happen? Way too much winning (and recency) bias IMO.

Why only focus on scoring efficiency? And sorry, but winning in the playoffs is really really important and unless you feel like Lebron doesn't deserve the bulk of the credit for that despite the efficiency numbers it should count for something significant.

This whole "winning bias" thing has swung way too far back the other way when people think we should ignore whose team is winning and advancing. I mean the point of the activity is to help your team win the game not reach some arbitrarily acceptable stat line. And make no mistake, Lebron is doing lots of things to help the Cavs win games/series.

Yeah, I just feel like what he's doing right now is going above expectations with love out and an injured kyrie in and out of the lineup. You can't take the lack of efficiency at face value. He's doing too much else to carry them right now for that to significantly matter against him.

Team efficiency is what matters given what Lebron's role is. His team is rocking a muscular 110.4 OTRG against the 12th, 11th, and 6th ranked defenses so far. Lebron literally initiates EVERYTHING (his true usage including assists opportunities was 81% last night on route to a 114OTRG). You can't just take his personal efficiency which he tanks to get his teammates wide open shots and offensive rebound opportunities into account without mentioning that his team overall which he has the ball 75% of the time is performing extremely well (0.2 behind the Warriors for best offense in the playoffs).

He's been very, very good on offense while being close to peak level Lebron on defense. He's been extremely good. I still have him behind Curry, Paul and Harden but mostly just because of those 9 missed games in the regular season and the first 20 or so being very lackluster. As the playoff games accumulate at this quality (which are more important to me) he still stands a chance to get above Paul and Harden for a player of the year vote. Pretty sure Curry will end up 1 regardless of the Finals.

[Doctor MJ]

^
I don't get this Doc, Lebron is rocking a 49% TS in the playoffs, why would you "have to put him at 1" if that were to happen? Way too much winning (and recency) bias IMO.

I said "if he plays well enough". I didn't say that "if he keeps shooting 49% TS I'll have to put him at #1".

But as someone else already pointed out, while I take shooting efficiency seriously, I also factor other things in. While it would be theoretically possible for Curry to outplay LeBron and Cleveland still wins the series, it's pretty hard to imagine. We should all be careful about fetishizing LeBron's play too much of course, but quite literally everything that team is doing is on LeBron's back right now, and I don't expect it to be easy advocating for Curry over LeBron if Curry's team can't come out victorious.

As I say all that though make no mistake: I see Golden State as a clearly superior team that should win. I'll be shocked and frankly disappointed if Cleveland wins the title this year as I know full well that what they are doing right now isn't even as good as their play last year when they got destroyed by the Spurs. I want to feel in awe of the quality of play of the championship team, and it's hard to imagine feeling that way about any of the teams remaining except the Warriors, so if the Warriors lose, I expect it to mean that we were disappointed, not that we think that LeBron is a golden god.

[bondom34]

Westbrookish is inefficient mind-blowing stat line, LeBronish is efficient mind-blowing stat line. It certainly looks like more Westbrookish to me

If they lost last night, I was debating starting a thread asking if his triple doubles are hurting the cavs .

Seriously, amazing game but I couldn't help thinking it.

Ha. Well in all seriousness:

Generally speaking, the regression data isn't in love with LeBron's rebounds either. Got Buckets FFAPM for defensive rebounding for the current span (the last 2 seasons):

Average = 50th percentile
LeBron = 35th
Westbrook = 12th

Obviously that says Westbrook is worse, but I'm not trying to rub his nose in it, I'm just putting it there so everyone knows the context. Westbrook's penchant for going after defensive rebounds likely really hurts the team's defensive rebounding for reasons that I've gone into before, but LeBron doesn't look a lot better. As such in general it's worth questioning whether LeBron's triple doubles are overrated too...

That said in this case, I think the "triple double" label and the impression it makes is exactly right. LeBron had more offensive rebounds than the entire Atlanta Hawk team. That's just devastating, and has absolutely everything to do with why the Cavs one despite LeBron quite frankly not scoring that efficiently.

It's also noteworthy I think in recognizing why it's so hard to "stop" LeBron. His body is just freakish, and so if one thing isn't working as well for him, he can make up for it in other ways the way the Currys and the Hardens of the world just cannot.

Honestly, I think what FD said is somewhat true here, the east ultimately is just bad, and a Hawks team missing 3 players and having another playing a bit hurt makes it even worse. Lebron had a bunch of teammates who all had pretty solid games, and a very inefficient triple double was just a little frustrating to watch, knowing he'd be praised by the masses here (well, not entirely here but the GB for example) when after a lot of the same games by Westbrook on a worse team there was criticism. That said, I was really just making a sarcastic throwaway type statement, didn't really mean much by it.

[fuzzy_dunlop]

Sure, Cleveland winning would likely mean that Lebron outplayed Curry, but short of him averaging 45 PPG or whatever I still don't
see why that would outweigh the rest of the year. Lebron isn't gonna crack my personal top 3 and I think people are giving him way too much benefit of the doubt when they all but assume that he's still the same dude despite his decline in production this year.

[SideshowBob]

Team efficiency is what matters given what Lebron's role is. His team is rocking a muscular 110.4 OTRG against the 12th, 11th, and 6th ranked defenses so far. Lebron literally initiates EVERYTHING (his true usage including assists opportunities was 81% last night on route to a 114OTRG). You can't just take his personal efficiency which he tanks to get his teammates wide open shots and offensive rebound opportunities into account without mentioning that his team overall which he has the ball 75% of the time is performing extremely well (0.2 behind the Warriors for best offense in the playoffs).

Cavs offense has actually been slightly better after adjusting for opponent strength.

Warriors Postseason (13 G)

+11.9 SRS, +7.2 Offense, -5.4 Defense

Cavaliers Postseason (12 G)

+9.5 SRS, +7.4 Offense, -3.4 Defense

He's been very, very good on offense while being close to peak level Lebron on defense. He's been extremely good. I still have him behind Curry, Paul and Harden but mostly just because of those 9 missed games in the regular season and the first 20 or so being very lackluster. As the playoff games accumulate at this quality (which are more important to me) he still stands a chance to get above Paul and Harden for a player of the year vote. Pretty sure Curry will end up 1 regardless of the Finals.

How much are you penalizing for missed games? With ElGee's RS health data:

Lebron: +7 (5 off/2 def), 84% health, average portability gives me odds of .270
Curry at +6 (all offense) with 100% RS health, highest portability gives me odds of .226

[JLei]

Team efficiency is what matters given what Lebron's role is. His team is rocking a muscular 110.4 OTRG against the 12th, 11th, and 6th ranked defenses so far. Lebron literally initiates EVERYTHING (his true usage including assists opportunities was 81% last night on route to a 114OTRG). You can't just take his personal efficiency which he tanks to get his teammates wide open shots and offensive rebound opportunities into account without mentioning that his team overall which he has the ball 75% of the time is performing extremely well (0.2 behind the Warriors for best offense in the playoffs).

Cavs offense has actually been slightly better after adjusting for opponent strength.

Warriors Postseason (13 G)

+11.9 SRS, +7.2 Offense, -5.4 Defense

Cavaliers Postseason (12 G)

+9.5 SRS, +7.4 Offense, -3.4 Defense

He's been very, very good on offense while being close to peak level Lebron on defense. He's been extremely good. I still have him behind Curry, Paul and Harden but mostly just because of those 9 missed games in the regular season and the first 20 or so being very lackluster. As the playoff games accumulate at this quality (which are more important to me) he still stands a chance to get above Paul and Harden for a player of the year vote. Pretty sure Curry will end up 1 regardless of the Finals.

How much are you penalizing for missed games? With ElGee's RS health data:

Lebron: +7 (5 off/2 def), 84% health, average portability gives me odds of .270
Curry at +6 (all offense) with 100% RS health, highest portability gives me odds of .226

A bit more than you are. Though my criteria for a player of the year is different than expected championship odds. Pretty much haven't wavered from Lebron on that end (as the player with the most impact/ most likely to bring you a title this year) since late-February/early-March after I saw what he could do post break.

In terms of a player of the year type thing. RS games count as 1X importance. 1st round 1.5X, 2nd round 2X, 3rd round 2.5X, Finals 3X.

Something like that. He's closing in on pretty much every one but Curry since Curry will be playing in the Finals.

[fuzzy_dunlop]

get off this overuse of team ORTG, it's dumb when people use it to knock guys unfairly and it's just as dumb when used to prop guys up. Lebron can't touch Curry, Harden or CP3 offensively this year.

[JLei]

get off this overuse of team ORTG, it's dumb when people use it to knock guys unfairly and it's just as dumb when used to prop guys up. Lebron can't touch Curry, Harden or CP3 offensively this year.

And no one has said that Lebron has (see SSB's above split on O/D). His O (which has been underrated due to that reason) + his D (which has been quite awesome) makes him better than all those players right now.

An O only best player list would have Bron behind all 3 you just listed and possibly Westbrook as well.

[SideshowBob]

get off this overuse of team ORTG, it's dumb when people use it to knock guys unfairly and it's just as dumb when used to prop guys up. Lebron can't touch Curry, Harden or CP3 offensively this year.

Westbrook as well IMO.

[fuzzy_dunlop]

By what measure has he been the best overall? RPM currently has him at 2nd but I don't even buy that, and he's 4th in WAR anyway.

[cpower]

By what measure has he been the best overall? RPM currently has him at 2nd but I don't even buy that, and he's 4th in WAR anyway.

Lebron will be the best player until he is 80

[fuzzy_dunlop]

Jordan can take him 1 on 1 NOW