6 weeks left to save season... EE trade.

[Schad]

So we give up on Bautista and Edwin and hope that our handful of young pitchers become close to as valuable as our current offense? I don't buy it. There's a good chance we get to 2017 with a few fringe prospects that we are rolling the dice on and really no foundation other than Donaldson. Stroman likely is a star, Hutch might be serviceable, the rest are all wild cards. There's no bright future down the road. I'll pass on a couple lottery ticket prospects if it means forfeiting the only real chance we have of making a deep playoff run in 2016.

But if that's all the pitching prospects are, we have no real chance of a deep playoff run in 2016 either, because we're relying on them to carry our staff to that goal.

We're now two and a quarter seasons into our all-in chase of the playoffs. Thus far, we're 177-193, in no small part because the big bats on which we rely are physically breaking down. There's no reason to believe that 2016 will finally see us carried to glory.

[Skin Blues]

Our offense has been fine, even with the injuries. And we've added Donaldson and Martin, so yeah, there is reason to believe that 2016 will finally see us carried to glory. Losing 3 of our best hitters to free agency/age decline will do nothing but kill our chances at the playoffs any time in the next 5 years. I know we all think Hoffman and Norris and Sanchez and Boyd are all gonna be awesome, but odds are we get one good starter out of that group. That's not enough to make up for the massive hit on offense.

If we can land a huge prospect or something, that's close to the majors, then maybe you think about it. But not if it's a haul like the A's got for Donaldson.

[Schad]

Our offense has been fine, even with the injuries. And we've added Donaldson and Martin, so yeah, there is reason to believe that 2016 will finally see us carried to glory. Losing 3 of our best hitters to free agency/age decline will do nothing but kill our chances at the playoffs any time in the next 5 years. I know we all think Hoffman and Norris and Sanchez and Boyd are all gonna be awesome, but odds are we get one good starter out of that group. That's not enough to make up for the massive hit on offense.

Again, I don't disagree with that. But right now, our 2016 rotation is Stroman, Hutch, and three blank spaces. Our bullpen is similarly set, particularly if we're planning to turn Osuna back into a starter (and we should).

It'd be one thing if we'd been missing the playoffs by a narrow margin, but we haven't. Last season we missed the playoffs by five games, but we also finished behind three other AL teams who failed to make the playoffs. The year previous we missed by eighteen. Just as we were farther away than we believed entering 2013 -- which made the go-for-it project pretty inadvisable -- so too are we further away than many seem to be suggesting. We simply aren't very good, and when you're three starters, a couple high-end relievers and perhaps upgrades (or at least depth) at other positions, you aren't really anywhere.

[Sifu]

I think we need to detach wishful thinking to realistic expectations. We can already see this team is many players away from contending.

And even if let's say we can make the playoffs, do we have the starting pitching to go deep into it?

While the offense is elite, this year the offense has shown to struggle against good pitching, and the playoffs will be full of teams with great pitching.

Maybe a few years from now, our pitchers will be those elite pitchers but they won't be next year. Hoping so won't make it true.

[AirCanadaMouse]

This team needs a blow up in the worst way. The core they've built from that 2013 trade, that window is all closed. Our lineup, offensively has been great this year. It looks good on paper too, but this is an aging core and we're just not going anywhere as a team with the way our pitching is.

Bautista's path to decline, I feel is unfortunately here, with his current shoulder problems. He's going to be 35 next year, and while he can still produce, we dont know for how long. This one hurts because he has become one of my all time fav. Blue Jays and it's a shame we couldn't give him a playoff run.

We have an older core, and I wouldn't mind seeing a rebuild. Shame we traded a lot of our top prospects over the years for a chance at the playoffs but nothing we can do about that now.

If we can get any top prospects in a deal for Edwin, I would do it in a heartbeat. Same goes for guys like Reyes (who's seemingly made of glass).

As it stands, Stroman and Norris are the only two bright spots for the pitching staff. This team is not a playoff team in 2015, and it will be the same in 2016, with the aging core a year older...we're going to be heading down a bad path.

[Skin Blues]

Our offense has been fine, even with the injuries. And we've added Donaldson and Martin, so yeah, there is reason to believe that 2016 will finally see us carried to glory. Losing 3 of our best hitters to free agency/age decline will do nothing but kill our chances at the playoffs any time in the next 5 years. I know we all think Hoffman and Norris and Sanchez and Boyd are all gonna be awesome, but odds are we get one good starter out of that group. That's not enough to make up for the massive hit on offense.

Again, I don't disagree with that. But right now, our 2016 rotation is Stroman, Hutch, and three blank spaces. Our bullpen is similarly set, particularly if we're planning to turn Osuna back into a starter (and we should).

It'd be one thing if we'd been missing the playoffs by a narrow margin, but we haven't. Last season we missed the playoffs by five games, but we also finished behind three other AL teams who failed to make the playoffs. The year previous we missed by eighteen. Just as we were farther away than we believed entering 2013 -- which made the go-for-it project pretty inadvisable -- so too are we further away than many seem to be suggesting. We simply aren't very good, and when you're three starters, a couple high-end relievers and perhaps upgrades (or at least depth) at other positions, you aren't really anywhere.

The bullpen is fine. If they get replacements they can try Osuna as a starter, or trade him to a team that will be patient with him as a starter. The offense is mostly fine. We are set at essentially every position, or at least don't ave any glaring holes like we've had with 2B the past few years. You may not think we have a shot in 2016, but we certainly have no better shot in 2017/18/19/etc. Is it hard to fill three rotation spots with internal promotions, $30M+ cash and prospects for trade? Yeah, it'd be tough, but it can be done. It's a hell of a lot easier than creating an offense around Josh Donaldson in 2018 and hoping that all of the pitching prospects come to fruition. If there was a big return to be had for Bautista and Edwin, then like I said... sure, lets trade them. But we're likely not going to get anything significant that makes throwing in the towel for 2015 and 2016 a worthwhile decision.

[Schad]

Well, we definitely differ on trading prospects. I think that trading Osuna and the other high-end prospects would be suicidal even if we could guarantee a playoff spot...returning seems like the pinnacle now after such a long wait, but as a one-off with a barren future, to have a roughly one-in-ten chance of winning the World Series? Not for me.

[satyr9]

Well, we definitely differ on trading prospects. I think that trading Osuna and the other high-end prospects would be suicidal even if we could guarantee a playoff spot...returning seems like the pinnacle now after such a long wait, but as a one-off with a barren future, to have a roughly one-in-ten chance of winning the World Series? Not for me.

I'm not nearly as pessimistic as the majority here, but I'm still with you on not trading future for present.

However, it's going to happen. By the end of July the Jays will have dealt for a starter. Short of the next 6 weeks absolutely flushing them down the crapper, there'll be a fairly big move made for at least one significant arm. Bees and AA aren't going to lie down now. Unless they get dumped early to avoid wasting assets, not exactly how or why I'd see Rogers acting, we'll get ourselves a couple months of Cueto or Kazmir or Sammy or the like.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Ultimately if no further moves are made, there is no way the Jays can make a deep run. Not with the way the pitching (starters and bullpen) is currently constructed. If you agree, then it would make sense to trade Bautista and Encarnacion for prospects or young MLB players that have yet to make an immediate impact. The sooner you trade them the more teams you currently have to negotiate with.

[Sifu]

What worries me are the reports where AA made offers for Hamel, but Hamels stuck to his no trade.

I wonder what AA was offering that would intrigue RAJ. The asking price on Hamels has been crazy so I shudder to think about the offer.

And if that's the case, then what next? Maybe a Norris and 2 top prospects for a few months of Cueto??

Its pure speculation on my part, but something I would believe AA would be short sighted enough to do. I just point to the Dickey trade as evidence of that.

[North_of_Border]

Toronto needs to make a move for pitching, but trading top prospects is something this team cant afford anymore.

best thing to do would be to sacrifice a member of the big time offense. Subtract one guy you think you can compete without.

Donaldson is not going anywhere with his salary. Trading Martin goes against the plan. Reyes is too hard to trade with his salary..... That leaves Bautista and Encanacion...Everyone else, wont get you much.

Losing say, a Jose Bautista, would not kill the offense. Donaldon/EE combo is just as lethal. Plus the fact Bautista is aging, soon to decline and injuries are piling up. This might be the smart moment to deal him.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

What worries me are the reports where AA made offers for Hamel, but Hamels stuck to his no trade.

I wonder what AA was offering that would intrigue RAJ. The asking price on Hamels has been crazy so I shudder to think about the offer.

And if that's the case, then what next? Maybe a Norris and 2 top prospects for a few months of Cueto??

Its pure speculation on my part, but something I would believe AA would be short sighted enough to do. I just point to the Dickey trade as evidence of that.

I could be wrong but I think the common courtesy would be for Hamels to say he would waive it. Then the Jays could present their package, rather than work to get a package only to have it turned down.

[Michael Bradley]

If AA is willing to sabotage his own prospects then I have no doubt he'd be willing to trade them if he has the money to add a piece. That's why the Jays really need to do one extreme or the other. Either lose a lot or win a lot with this current group. The former is more likely than the latter, but the division is so winnable that even hovering around .500 should keep them in it unless one team breaks from the pack in the East.

Very frustrating spot to be in. Reminds me a bit of Gord Ash's final year of two where panic moves and accelerated prospect promoting became the norm.

[Double Helix]

What's frustrating is how long we've all been talking about pitching being an issue in this half-measure of a win-now attempt dating back to the big trade in the first place. So many close calls on starters but in the end... Misses.

It's annoying because by being too afraid to go all-in and instead making a half-hearted bet at the Division the rest of the contenders called it. Nobody that really knew baseball was terrified of us. They knew our pitching would be the issue it has been. Nobody really backed down and thought it was time to start their own rebuilds because the Jays were back. And so we haven't even been able to capitalize on the second wild card spot.

So, now we're in this awful place where the playoff drought continues despite having this incredible offence that is being wasted regularly by poor pitching efforts (the arms have loosened up a little lately with some better efforts but the scales are still pretty extreme and when it's not one it's the other *sigh*) and now the next rebuild will still be long and painful because we sold off some top prospects for a mediocre present that could have been fun if we would have truly went all-in sooner.

Even if we had left the cupboards bare for the next rebuild by going all in sooner the next rebuild still would have been more enjoyable following a couple fun playoff drives to break up the decades of waiting. At least then it would feel like that sacrifice of the future had lead to something meaningful. Instead, we'll have just enough top tier prospects left to be reminded of what could have been had we kept the others or if we had cashed these in to go on a legit World Series run.



Ahhhh... Toronto. Where we always try to have it both ways and never do.


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[North_of_Border]

I think the big problem with the Jays pitching is the bullpen. Thats what AA should be trading for it would be much cheaper.

As for the rotation. Stroman said he is aiming for a September return. Add him and maybe move Dickey to the #5 role where he could be more respectable.

1- Hutch (heating up)
2- Stroman
3- Buhrle (solid)
4- Sanchez (low ERA)
5- Dickey (where he belongs)

That rotation will not dominate, but can be decent. Like Baltimore last year.

Also, Esteada, Norris, Castro added to bullpen by September.

This could work.


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[Raps in 4]

Jays now have the 2nd worst record in the AL. You can't be that bad and chalk it up to bad luck.

Yes you can.

Most of our injured players have been hitters. Given that we lead the league in runs, that clearly hasn't been the reason for our struggles. Anyone who thought this pitching staff would be competitive going into the season was deluding themselves. Even with a healthy Stroman, this is still a bottom quartile pitching staff.

[Raps in 4]

I think the big problem with the Jays pitching is the bullpen. Thats what AA should be trading for it would be much cheaper.

As for the rotation. Stroman said he is aiming for a September return. Add him and maybe move Dickey to the #5 role where he could be more respectable.

1- Hutch (heating up)
2- Stroman
3- Buhrle (solid)
4- Sanchez (low ERA)
5- Dickey (where he belongs)

That rotation will not dominate, but can be decent. Like Baltimore last year.

Also, Esteada, Norris, Castro added to bullpen by September.

This could work.


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Buehrle and Dickey are awful at this point in their careers. Dickey is turning 41 this year for **** sake.

Sanchez' xFIP tells me he isn't as good as his ERA indicates.

You can't get by with 2/5 pitchers on your staff playing like garbage (with little to no chance of improvement due to age). Sanchez will probably regress by the end of the season, which will leave us with 3/5 crappy pitchers.

[polo007]

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