Embiid Updates/Discussion

[Ericb5]

1) When you draft a 7 footer with back problems in college and then a serious foot foot injury, the chances for a long healthy career are way less then 50%, IMO. So when you draft a player like that, you don't get the benefit of the doubt when he's hurt again.

2) Stop with the nonsense of "would rather have drafted Embiid or.....with the 3rd pick"? This is not baseball....you can trade down...you can trade for established players....I would not have drafted Embiid....I would have looked at other options....and I'm very confident there were many options available.

3) This so called plan involves two major factors...hope and luck....that's not a plan.

All rebuilds involve hope and luck. ALL of them.

Hinkie's plan does not avoid hope and luck, it just maximizes the odds.

The Sixers were drafting at 3 last year. Let's assume for the sake of argument that we traded back a few spots and selected Randle or Smart and then had the 6th or 7th pick again this year. That is a generous return on the 3rd pick.

Would Randle and Hezonja or Smart and Winslow be better to have than Embiid?

If he busts then obviously anything is better. The point thigh is that putting yourself in the position to get even a 50% chance at Olajuwon is worth way more than a bunch of really good prospects.

You and I disagree on this point obviously, but I think that the basketball universe is on my side. You take your shots at the great ones when you get a chance.

Also, a time like this is when people like you start crowing about what we have done wrong. We still don't know what the situation really is.




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[Skates]

Not freaking out at every possible bad event is not sticking one's head in the sand or drinking anyone's Kool-aid, quite the contrary it is understanding that the process is not centered on a single player or draft pick. I have been kind of skeptical about Embiud working out since his first stress fracture, but he was a value pick at three last year that made sense. With big rewards sometimes come big risks, no biggie if you accept that up front. It has been my position to draft Okafor if he slips to three long before this to double down on our development of a dominant big man rotation.

As far as the current setback it is what it is, and no one has a clue what it really is yet. I remember people losing their minds when Norl was only playing half the games in summer league last year and the claims he was being babied, had no pain tolerance, etc. So yes, if you believe in the process a negative event isn't the end of the world because you are realistic to know that some risks will fail. Hinkie knows the numbers, the percentages, they aren't ever 100% positive and he never said they would be.

[PSUEagle]

I want to know where the 50% re-injury risk number comes from. Are you a physician?

[the_process]

Don't you all think this is really convenient timing? Woj got a report the foot hadn't healed as much as the doctor would have liked, and told the Sixers he was gonna run it. Sixers prepared a statement to that effect. Russell cancels, Porzingis is mocked to the Sixers, Embiid is "hurt". No one has any idea what the Sixers are gonna do. The only question we all should be asking ourselves is who's Hinkie running a game on this year? Probably the Knicks. That 2018 unprotected NYK pick is gonna look REAL good on the pile of assets

[Mik317]

Embiid is/was the centerpiece. Lets not try to rewrite that part of this.

If he is unable to go or be good...that is a massive setback. I like Noel..but he isn't a star that leads teams. Russell, Mudiay, and perhaps Kristaps isnt that either. Even if Noel, Saric, whoever is good...I don't feel ATM that they have star potential...so we are right back where we started or yet again tanking...and that sucks.

[Ericb5]

Embiid is/was the centerpiece. Lets not try to rewrite that part of this.

If he is unable to go or be good...that is a massive setback. I like Noel..but he isn't a star that leads teams. Russell, Mudiay, and perhaps Kristaps isnt that either. Even if Noel, Saric, whoever is good...I don't feel ATM that they have star potential...so we are right back where we started or yet again tanking...and that sucks.

Obviously Embiid busting would be a disaster.

Where have you been that you feel that you need to make that point now?

We NEVER would have been able to draft him at 3 if there wasn't a real chance that he would medically bust.

Nobody is arguing that we will be fine if he busts. We are arguing that, even with that bust potential, he was the right pick last year, plus we still don't know anything about the condition of his foot that makes him more likely to bust today than what we knew back then.



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[NYSixersFan]

1) When you draft a 7 footer with back problems in college and then a serious foot foot injury, the chances for a long healthy career are way less then 50%, IMO. So when you draft a player like that, you don't get the benefit of the doubt when he's hurt again.

2) Stop with the nonsense of "would rather have drafted Embiid or.....with the 3rd pick"? This is not baseball....you can trade down...you can trade for established players....I would not have drafted Embiid....I would have looked at other options....and I'm very confident there were many options available.

3) This so called plan involves two major factors...hope and luck....that's not a plan.

All rebuilds involve hope and luck. ALL of them.

Hinkie's plan does not avoid hope and luck, it just maximizes the odds.

The Sixers were drafting at 3 last year. Let's assume for the sake of argument that we traded back a few spots and selected Randle or Smart and then had the 6th or 7th pick again this year. That is a generous return on the 3rd pick.

Would Randle and Hezonja or Smart and Winslow be better to have than Embiid?

If he busts then obviously anything is better. The point thigh is that putting yourself in the position to get even a 50% chance at Olajuwon is worth way more than a bunch of really good prospects.

You and I disagree on this point obviously, but I think that the basketball universe is on my side. You take your shots at the great ones when you get a chance.

Also, a time like this is when people like you start crowing about what we have done wrong. We still don't know what the situation really is.




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Luck and hope are factors in anything you do, but those things are the foundation of this "plan"

[Ericb5]

1) When you draft a 7 footer with back problems in college and then a serious foot foot injury, the chances for a long healthy career are way less then 50%, IMO. So when you draft a player like that, you don't get the benefit of the doubt when he's hurt again.

2) Stop with the nonsense of "would rather have drafted Embiid or.....with the 3rd pick"? This is not baseball....you can trade down...you can trade for established players....I would not have drafted Embiid....I would have looked at other options....and I'm very confident there were many options available.

3) This so called plan involves two major factors...hope and luck....that's not a plan.

All rebuilds involve hope and luck. ALL of them.

Hinkie's plan does not avoid hope and luck, it just maximizes the odds.

The Sixers were drafting at 3 last year. Let's assume for the sake of argument that we traded back a few spots and selected Randle or Smart and then had the 6th or 7th pick again this year. That is a generous return on the 3rd pick.

Would Randle and Hezonja or Smart and Winslow be better to have than Embiid?

If he busts then obviously anything is better. The point thigh is that putting yourself in the position to get even a 50% chance at Olajuwon is worth way more than a bunch of really good prospects.

You and I disagree on this point obviously, but I think that the basketball universe is on my side. You take your shots at the great ones when you get a chance.

Also, a time like this is when people like you start crowing about what we have done wrong. We still don't know what the situation really is.




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Luck and hope are factors in anything you do, but those things are the foundation of this "plan"

That is actually the opposite of the truth and explains why you are against it. You simply don't understand the probabilities.

This plan is way more deterministic than the "keep your head above water" plan.

With our plan we maximize our chances of getting lucky. Under the Celtics or Kings plan you are completely dependent on the moon shot coming though because you are drafting so much lower.

Luck is part of everything, but in our plan we are hitting on a 12 in blackjack and under their plans they are hitting on 15. The chances of us finding a good card are way higher than theirs.




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[DavidHume]

I want to know where the 50% re-injury risk number comes from. Are you a physician?

There is a 91.34% chance that he made up that number out of thin air.

[Ben]

How many of us really thought that trading up for Wiggins was a possibility? I sure didn't. I was pissed that the Sixers got #3 in the lottery, but once that happened there wasn't much else to do 'cept pick Embiid or trade the pick altogether (not trade up, 'cause I don't believe that Milwaukee or Minny were looking to trade).

But I've been extremely concerned about Embiid from the start-- as snoopdogg88 implied, hefty 7 footers with foot or back problems don't have a great long-term track record. This latest news is not a small red flag but a big one. I would be up for trading Embiid for whatever the Sixers can get for him and move on from there. But I'd still take Russell at #3 unless Okafor falls rather than draft a less promising big man.

And if the Sixers don't trade Embiid I'll keep my fingers crossed for him, but I won't pretend that a full recovery is as likely to happen as not.

I didn't realize the Bulls had the #3 pick last year. FO.

What's that even supposed to mean?

[LloydFree]

How many of us really thought that trading up for Wiggins was a possibility? I sure didn't. I was pissed that the Sixers got #3 in the lottery, but once that happened there wasn't much else to do 'cept pick Embiid or trade the pick altogether (not trade up, 'cause I don't believe that Milwaukee or Minny were looking to trade).

But I've been extremely concerned about Embiid from the start-- as snoopdogg88 implied, hefty 7 footers with foot or back problems don't have a great long-term track record. This latest news is not a small red flag but a big one. I would be up for trading Embiid for whatever the Sixers can get for him and move on from there. But I'd still take Russell at #3 unless Okafor falls rather than draft a less promising big man.

And if the Sixers don't trade Embiid I'll keep my fingers crossed for him, but I won't pretend that a full recovery is as likely to happen as not.

I didn't realize the Bulls had the #3 pick last year. FO.

What's that even supposed to mean?

It means you are a troll mod.

[Ben]

I didn't realize the Bulls had the #3 pick last year. FO.

What's that even supposed to mean?

I means you are a troll mod.

As it happens, I live on the east coast, follow all of the Philly teams, attend multiple games per year, and my son is as big a fan of all Philadelphia teams as anyone here. That includes Temple. I'm not going to get into this further with you, but expect a follow-up from someone else.

[Sixerscan]

I didn't realize the Bulls had the #3 pick last year. FO.

What's that even supposed to mean?

I means you are a troll mod.

He's obviously not trolling and even if he was use the report function.

As Ben alluded to he posts here a decent amount and his input is always welcome. It's freaking basketball people are capable of having opinions on more than one team.

[Ben]

What's that even supposed to mean?

I means you are a troll mod.

He's obviously not trolling and even if he was use the report function.

As Ben alluded to he posts here a decent amount and his input is always welcome. It's freaking basketball people are capable of having opinions on more than one team.

Thank you. I would hope that all of the Chickie & Pete's crab fries (not to mention Sixers gear) that I bought at Sixers' games last season would entitle me to post my own analysis here once in a while.

[Kobblehead]

Did the Sixers leak this, with intent?

or

Did they reluctantly have to relay this info due to Woj getting wind of it?

[NYSixersFan]

All rebuilds involve hope and luck. ALL of them.

Hinkie's plan does not avoid hope and luck, it just maximizes the odds.

The Sixers were drafting at 3 last year. Let's assume for the sake of argument that we traded back a few spots and selected Randle or Smart and then had the 6th or 7th pick again this year. That is a generous return on the 3rd pick.

Would Randle and Hezonja or Smart and Winslow be better to have than Embiid?

If he busts then obviously anything is better. The point thigh is that putting yourself in the position to get even a 50% chance at Olajuwon is worth way more than a bunch of really good prospects.

You and I disagree on this point obviously, but I think that the basketball universe is on my side. You take your shots at the great ones when you get a chance.

Also, a time like this is when people like you start crowing about what we have done wrong. We still don't know what the situation really is.




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Luck and hope are factors in anything you do, but those things are the foundation of this "plan"

That is actually the opposite of the truth and explains why you are against it. You simply don't understand the probabilities.

This plan is way more deterministic than the "keep your head above water" plan.

With our plan we maximize our chances of getting lucky. Under the Celtics or Kings plan you are completely dependent on the moon shot coming though because you are drafting so much lower.

Luck is part of everything, but in our plan we are hitting on a 12 in blackjack and under their plans they are hitting on 15. The chances of us finding a good card are way higher than theirs.




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Uhhh, you're right, I don't get it. This isn't blackjack or a stock or whatever other example you want to use....this is basketball. You talk about probabilities...and I know that the probability of Embiid being and staying healthy is low.

I have two other problems with this "plan"

1) How are you going to pay everyone if it works? All these guys will be making big money at the same time.

2) When it comes time to pay some of these guys; how will you know what they're really worth if they have never produced in the playoffs?

[Bigballer74]

All I can say is..

SL is in question. But regular season is in play.

Until then.. Hinkie has done a great job for the team and Embiid was still the best pick last year be it no.1 pick or no.3 pick.

Embiid's injury is not that bad. It's just not healing as fast, there were no new injuries. There were no structural damage. There were some real good progress, thus the workouts and the between the legs.

Judge the injury when the season starts. Judge Hinkie when the rebuilding process is over.

cats pretending like they have inside info should be insta banned. Stuff like this brings this whole forums credibility down. This dude has no clue on the truth like the rest of us, but pretending like you have inside info is just pathetic.

[42uptop]

This report is probably true.The reporter behind it has proven to be reliable when he talks about the Sixers.

However, before everyone jumps off the deep end, nowhere does it say that Embiid is going to miss regular season, preseason, or even summer league games. The only new material I see is that his injury hasn't totally healed and they are going to monitor him closely.

There's no reason to break out the Negadelphian mentality. We will all find out soon enough if Embiid is ready to play. Ultimately, all that matters is that he is ready to go by opening night.

[BarlesCharkley8]

Luck and hope are factors in anything you do, but those things are the foundation of this "plan"

That is actually the opposite of the truth and explains why you are against it. You simply don't understand the probabilities.

This plan is way more deterministic than the "keep your head above water" plan.

With our plan we maximize our chances of getting lucky. Under the Celtics or Kings plan you are completely dependent on the moon shot coming though because you are drafting so much lower.

Luck is part of everything, but in our plan we are hitting on a 12 in blackjack and under their plans they are hitting on 15. The chances of us finding a good card are way higher than theirs.




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Uhhh, you're right, I don't get it. This isn't blackjack or a stock or whatever other example you want to use....this is basketball. You talk about probabilities...and I know that the probability of Embiid being and staying healthy is low.

I have two other problems with this "plan"

1) How are you going to pay everyone if it works? All these guys will be making big money at the same time.

2) When it comes time to pay some of these guys; how will you know what they're really worth if they have never produced in the playoffs?

"This isn't blackjack or picking stocks"..."you talk about probabilities"

This is the essence of your problem. Statistics / Probability have a significant part in any "game" you play...If you can't see that then I just don't know what to tell you.

[42uptop]

Uhhh, you're right, I don't get it. This isn't blackjack or a stock or whatever other example you want to use....this is basketball. You talk about probabilities...and I know that the probability of Embiid being and staying healthy is low.

I know the probability of you knowing anything about Embiid is low.

You haven't got a clue. Making up statistics is not going to get anyone to take your opinions seriously.