Grantland: No team could benefit more from deadline shopping than Jays

[Rhettmatic]

New Jonah Keri piece about Toronto.

So how can those conditions be tipped more toward their favor? No team stands to benefit more from aggressive trade-deadline shopping than the Blue Jays — and the area to improve is obvious.

When GM Alex Anthopoulos wanted to make moves at last year’s trade deadline, he got rebuffed by the corporate owners at Rogers Communications, who claimed the budget was tapped out. Rather than taking fliers on high-risk, moderate-reward pitchers over the winter, the Jays mostly stood pat outside of the Donaldson and Martin moves. As TSN 1050 reporter Scott MacArthur noted on this week’s podcast, that lack of offseason spending on pitchers could leave the Jays with something like $6 million to $10 million to spend on arms between now and the deadline.

They also have the ammunition to get it done. Even with Stroman out, a mere partial list of intriguing early-to-mid twenties pitching chips includes Sanchez, Norris, Miguel Castro, Roberto Osuna, 2012 sandwich-round pick Matt Smoral, 24-year-old Triple-A starter Matt Boyd (1.12 ERA in 13 minor league starts this year), and 22-year-old righty (and 2014 no. 9 overall pick) Jeff Hoffman. Throw in the Jays’ top three picks this year — all of whom are pitchers — and Toronto has a war chest of pitching talent it can leverage to reel in a top-flight starting pitcher like Johnny Cueto, a mid-rotation type like Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, or Mike Leake, or a bullpen ace like Jonathan Papelbon or Aroldis Chapman.4

It’s been 22 years since Joe Carter touched ’em all. Given Toronto’s historically powerful offense, improving health, iffy in-division competition, and a trade market wide open to bold moves for quality pitchers, the opportunity to end the longest postseason drought in baseball is right there in front of them. One more arm would make it a lot easier to reach.

[Fairview4Life]

It’s been 22 years since Joe Carter touched ’em all. Given Toronto’s historically powerful offense, improving health, iffy in-division competition, and a trade market wide open to bold moves for quality pitchers, the opportunity to end the longest postseason drought in baseball is right there in front of them. One more arm would make it a lot easier to reach.

Yes, but change the dates a little and you have the argument for why we made the Dickey trade that we just spent several days crying about.

[dagger]

It’s been 22 years since Joe Carter touched ’em all. Given Toronto’s historically powerful offense, improving health, iffy in-division competition, and a trade market wide open to bold moves for quality pitchers, the opportunity to end the longest postseason drought in baseball is right there in front of them. One more arm would make it a lot easier to reach.

Yes, but change the dates a little and you have the argument for why we made the Dickey trade that we just spent several days crying about.

Moreover, deal for someone like Cueto, and he won't even be around here as long as Dickey. I'd be down for a Hamels trade because his contract gives you a couple more prime seasons after this, but if we're going to pour prospects into a one and done situation, forget it. This team has multiple holes in the pitching staff. Edwin and Jose could be good again in 2016, so you focus on a creating another two or three year window, not on merely ending a 22 year playoff drought. This might be do-able if we were talking about a different ownership, but not Rogers.

[Kurtz]

I understand the apprehension, but what if a deal like Cueto+Chapman+cash for Sanchez+Pentecost+Boyd was on the table?

Cueto gives us our ace for this season, and we get an edge in signing him as a FA, especially if he works in the AL East. Chapman gives us that ace closer for the next 2 seasons+. Meanwhile, we'd be selling sorta high on Sanchez, whose control issues will likely prevent him from ever becoming a front-end starter. We'd be selling very high on Boyd. And Pentecost is blocked for the next 5 years anyway.

A deal like that allows us to keep arguably our best 3 prospects (Hoffman, Norris, Pompey) while not only giving us a massive boost in the playoff run, but also that ace who you absolutely must have if you have any hopes of making noise in the playoffs.

[Fairview4Life]

I understand the apprehension, but what if a deal like Cueto+Chapman+cash for Sanchez+Pentecost+Boyd was on the table?

Cueto gives us our ace for this season, and we get an edge in signing him as a FA, especially if he works in the AL East. Chapman gives us that ace closer for the next 2 seasons+. Meanwhile, we'd be selling sorta high on Sanchez, whose control issues will likely prevent him from ever becoming a front-end starter. We'd be selling very high on Boyd. And Pentecost is blocked for the next 5 years anyway.

A deal like that allows us to keep arguably our best 3 prospects (Hoffman, Norris, Pompey) while not only giving us a massive boost in the playoff run, but also that ace who you absolutely must have if you have any hopes of making noise in the playoffs.

If that was an actual deal on the table, then sure. but it isn't likely to be.

[Sifu]

I understand the apprehension, but what if a deal like Cueto+Chapman+cash for Sanchez+Pentecost+Boyd was on the table?

Cueto gives us our ace for this season, and we get an edge in signing him as a FA, especially if he works in the AL East. Chapman gives us that ace closer for the next 2 seasons+. Meanwhile, we'd be selling sorta high on Sanchez, whose control issues will likely prevent him from ever becoming a front-end starter. We'd be selling very high on Boyd. And Pentecost is blocked for the next 5 years anyway.

A deal like that allows us to keep arguably our best 3 prospects (Hoffman, Norris, Pompey) while not only giving us a massive boost in the playoff run, but also that ace who you absolutely must have if you have any hopes of making noise in the playoffs.

I would do this deal but doubt the Jays offering gets it done.

[dagger]

I understand the apprehension, but what if a deal like Cueto+Chapman+cash for Sanchez+Pentecost+Boyd was on the table?

Cueto gives us our ace for this season, and we get an edge in signing him as a FA, especially if he works in the AL East. Chapman gives us that ace closer for the next 2 seasons+. Meanwhile, we'd be selling sorta high on Sanchez, whose control issues will likely prevent him from ever becoming a front-end starter. We'd be selling very high on Boyd. And Pentecost is blocked for the next 5 years anyway.

A deal like that allows us to keep arguably our best 3 prospects (Hoffman, Norris, Pompey) while not only giving us a massive boost in the playoff run, but also that ace who you absolutely must have if you have any hopes of making noise in the playoffs.

What edge in re-signing him? Rogers is going to fork over a seven year, $150m deal? We get nothing beyond this year, Bupkis Baby. This reminds me about how Josh Johnson was the key to the whole Miami trade. Cueto is healthier, but he is no more likely to help us beyond this season than Johnson did.

I don;t believe we are selling high on Sanchez, only if you are convinced that everyone around here is always right about our prospects and that his last few starts were some kind of outlier in terms of projecting his future. Pentecost being blocked is a fair point, and if he's healthy - a big if - he plus a second tier pitching prospect ought to get us a good bullpen upgrade.

And this team needs more than one starting pitcher. Who of the current five could you see starting an ALCS game against the opponent's best? Or Game 2? Or Game 3? Hutchison? Dickey? I respect what Buehrle is doing, but seriously, do you think he wins a Game 2. There is no one on our staff who can win a 1-0 game. Cueto solves Game 1, but Games 2 and 3 would be the biggest of crap shoots.

[Schad]

Yeah, we get zero edge re-signing him. Actually, trading for Cueto only increases his leverage, because he ceases to be eligible for arbitration and consequently will walk without compensation.

[torontoaces04]

Deja Vu.

[Indiana Jones]

Talk talk talk talk talk. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Sifu]

Yeah, we get zero edge re-signing him. Actually, trading for Cueto only increases his leverage, because he ceases to be eligible for arbitration and consequently will walk without compensation.

Really, no first round pick in compensation?

[Schad]

Yeah, we get zero edge re-signing him. Actually, trading for Cueto only increases his leverage, because he ceases to be eligible for arbitration and consequently will walk without compensation.

Really, no first round pick in compensation?

Can only get compensation if the player has been on your roster for the full season; guys traded mid-year cease to be eligible.

[Michael Bradley]

The Jays are in a bad spot because if they do nothing, then this roster probably maxes out at .500, which won't be good enough.

If they do something meaningful at the deadline, it increases their chances of making one of the playoff spots (East or one of the two WC's), but whether it succeeds or fails, it will be a blow long-term depending on who they trade. If it fails, then they not only lose the prospects but don't even get to enjoy the purpose of the short-term trade. At least with the Marlins/Dickey trades, the team was getting multiple years of control. In the the case of a rental, you better be in a damn good spot (leading a playoff spot by 4-5 games) to justify the dealing of assets (depending on which prospects are dealt).

The Jays pretty much have to hope there are teams looking to unload underachieving talent for nothing (i.e. McCarthy/Headley last season), but even then, will Rogers pick up the tab?

[Komodo]

6-10M available? I've heard this before. Next week it'll be 1-2M, then the week after we'll be told there's no $$$ available. F*** rogers!

[Kurtz]

And this team needs more than one starting pitcher. Who of the current five could you see starting an ALCS game against the opponent's best? Or Game 2? Or Game 3? Hutchison? Dickey? I respect what Buehrle is doing, but seriously, do you think he wins a Game 2. There is no one on our staff who can win a 1-0 game. Cueto solves Game 1, but Games 2 and 3 would be the biggest of crap shoots.

I think having a legit ace is the key here, because he can likely start 3/7 games. I can think of a number of teams that made the world series with a single ace - like last year for instance.

I'd be relatively comfortable with Hutch at #2 and the hotter of Dickey or Buehrle at 3, knowing that our offense would likely be far superior to our opponent's.

But if we have to face the other team's best guy 3 times with our current rotation...that'd be a very difficult proposition.

[Sifu]

If we make it to the playoffs then its Stroman and Hoffman as our 1 and 2. Domination!

[zilby]

Was I supposed to laugh at the line of Smoral being a sandwich pick?? Because it's ironic his name sounds like S'more?

Anyways, article pretty much nails it. We could 100% spend on arms at the deadline and be in good shape, given this offense continues to produce. If we're still in the thick of things, I don't see why not. Stro could be back in September if all goes well and we can push one of Estrada or Sanchez to the pen. A couple of good arms in there, we may be in better shape.

[dagger]

If we make it to the playoffs then its Stroman and Hoffman as our 1 and 2. Domination!

Stroman's talking a good fight but you never know until he pitches a game how long it will take him to hit stride. I'm not counting on him for this season, not as a top of the rotation guy. And forget about Hoffman until 2016 at least.

[Sifu]

If we make it to the playoffs then its Stroman and Hoffman as our 1 and 2. Domination!

Stroman's talking a good fight but you never know until he pitches a game how long it will take him to hit stride. I'm not counting on him for this season, not as a top of the rotation guy. And forget about Hoffman until 2016 at least.

Sorry, I was being sarcastic but maybe came across as serious
My bad

[North_of_Border]

Jays made the Dickey/Marlins trade because they assumed they were taking the next step in their road to contention... But they failed because it was it was all just a prediction. There was no proof the year before that they were ready step forward

This year though. The evidence is infront of them. This team can compete.... With the rite additions. Pitching to be more spacific

AA has his job on the line. EE and Jose possibly have just another season left signed. The offense is crazy lethal. The bullpen is respectable finally.

I think you have to go for it this point