OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[Balkman32]

Remember 10 million under this cap is like 16 million under next years cap. So if they pay Kanter 15 million it's about on par for the future. I think Thunder sit back and see if anyone gives an offer sheet. I found anyone would because the Thunder will match and trade @ the deadline.

I think Kanter wants to stay here. Utah didn't let him play back to the basket last year and really never because that is Favors strength and Utah already had him locked up.

[Balkman32]

At the end of the day, sure we can prepare for the most unlikely scenario, but why would we ignore needs based on the 1% chance that KD doesn't get healthy? That said, I still want a hybrid 2/3 because Waiters sucks, Lamb probably isn't the answer either, we need 2's who can keep up physically with Lebron, and as much as I love Robes getting a version of him that shoots 35% from three puts this team squarely ahead of everyone else. The only other need is backup point, and that's only because DJ may not be back after next season and you'd prefer not to have a rookie at that position.

Again, since this seems to be ultra hard for you to grasp.

No one would be ignoring anything.
The one position we do not have a legitimate two players deep in, is the 3.

Russ-DJ. Two legit players. One franchise. One starter quality.
Waiters-Roberson-Morrow. Three legit players. One potential sixth man type material. One starter quality defensive role player. One 3pt specialist.
KD-PJ3. One franchise. One.... kinda all over the place right now.
Ibaka-McGary. Two legit players. One franchise. One starter quality (at least by what we saw in his short period playing)
Kanter-Adams. Two legit players. One becoming franchise. One starter quality.

I want PJ3 to be our full time back up 3. I would love for him to start showing what he showed us in college and in the summer league. But until then, we need to bring in a full time back up 3 that is more reliable than "we dont really know how he's going to turn out".

You forgot Collison.

[stitches]

Remember 10 million under this cap is like 16 million under next years cap. So if they pay Kanter 15 million it's about on par for the future. I think Thunder sit back and see if anyone gives an offer sheet. I found anyone would because the Thunder will match and trade @ the deadline.

I think Kanter wants to stay here. Utah didn't let him play back to the basket last year and really never because that is Favors strength and Utah already had him locked up.

I think if he doesn't get max or close to max he will simply take the qualifying offer and become FA next season when everybody will have money and he will get paid... It doesn't make much sense for him to take 4x8M-10M in RFA after he's refused 4x8M extension already. That was one of the things we were worried about and one of the reasons we traded him - because we were going to lose him for nothing or have to overpay him + the whole disgruntled thing and the trade demand.

[tleikheen]

I think if he doesn't get max or close to max he will simply take the qualifying offer and become FA next season when everybody will have money and he will get paid..

Kanter just turned 23 and you have to take the money while you can,anybody who can put up 20 pt/13 rebound games as much as Kanter can is going to get the going rate ,,,,,be honest ,he didn't establish the going rate

Coming down the stretch when OKC was trying to make the playoffs,Kanter did the 20/13, five out of the last eight games
Obaka only did that twice the whole year and Adams didn't do any

[stitches]

Nobody has ever questioned two things about Kanter - scoring and rebounding, I don't know why you keep harping about his pts/reb numbers. Sure, it's valuable thing, but what's the point of scoring 20/13 games when you allow 30 on the other end. Last year somebody on the Jazz board posted a stat that opponents that Kanter guarded posted 27 PER on average against us, for the whole season. That's insane... for reference - average for the league is about 15, 20 is about all-star level, 25 is about hall of fame level... in other words - opponents post above hall of fame numbers on average for a full season against Kanter.

[Soonerule]

are you trying to say this will continue even with Durant coming back as well

The good teams play to their players strengths ,with Kanter ,OKC can lead the NBA in sc oring as well as rebounding...with a healthy Durant and the addition of Kanter.......Golden State would have had a hard time beating OKC and youd be singing a different tune

When KD returns, Kanters scoring opportunities will decrease, if his defense doesn't improve pretty dramatically, it could get worse.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/06/16/spurs-and-heat-help-prove-that-defense-wins-championships/

(If your not going to read that link there really is nothing more to talk about)

Key points from the article:
1.

Over the last 37 years (since the NBA started tracking turnovers in 1977-78), only three teams have won a championship after ranking outside the top 10 in defensive efficiency in the regular season. Twice as many champs have ranked outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency.

The last team to do, the 2001 Lakers, won that championship when Shaq decided it was time to play defense again once they got to the playoffs

2.

So the Spurs went back to the drawing board in the summer of 2012. And as a team that has embraced analytics, they dug into the numbers and realized that being a great defensive rebounding team (which they were) didn’t matter if you didn’t defend shots well enough (which they didn’t).
“What we found,” Spurs general manager R.C. Buford told NBA.com last week, “were that teams who weren’t as effective defensive rebounding were still ranking incredibly high in defensive efficiency. The areas that they were focused in appeared to us to be field goal percentage defense. So we felt like we needed to go back to parts of our system that would improve our defensive field goal percentage.”

Pop's mighty offense has never won a NBA Championship when the Spurs finished ranked lower than 4th during the regular season, including this year.

3. (From Pop's mouth to your ears)

“We thought that’s what was missing against Oklahoma City [in the 2012 conference finals],” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said a year ago, “that we couldn’t make stops when we needed to. We would call them ‘stops on demand.’ In fourth quarters and big games you have to be able to do it.”

4.

The Miami Heat have gone in the opposite direction in the last two years. After ranking in the top five defensively in their first two seasons together, the Heat ranked seventh last season and 11th this year.

The article was written in June, 2014, right after the Spurs beat the Heat for the Championship. Ironically the Heat beat the Spurs when their defense was top ten and lost the next year when they slipped just below it. Where did the Warriors finish defensively this year?

5.

“We were always trying to conjure something,” Shane Battier told Bleacher Report after Game 5. “But you can’t win a championship trying to conjure something. It has to be who you are, and it has to be pure, and that wasn’t the case for us this year.
“We just didn’t have the fundamentals to stop an offensive juggernaut like the Spurs. And we were exposed.”

So no, I wouldn't be singing a different tune. The Cavs were one put back from putting the Warriors in a 3-0 hole and they did it because Mozgov and Tristan Thompson shut the door to the paint and forced the Warriors to depend on jump shots. Dellavedova just didn't have enough in the tank to keep the pressure on Curry after being hospitalized for cramps after game 3. Kanter doesn't shut down the paint, he lays down a welcome mat, he would be "exposed".

The point is, all Kanter's defensive woes have to do is drop the Thunder out of the top 10 defensive rankings and the ship is sunk. To think he will suddenly step up his defense effort if there is something on the line was lost when he didn't step it up when OKC was battling for that last playoff spot.

You watched him in Utah, so I'll ask you. In his 26 games in OKC, Kanter did not take a single charge, playing starter minutes. McGary on the other hand took 3 in spot role player minutes. How many charges did Kanter take in his 340 games at Utah?

[Soonerule]

Letting him walk for nothing would be stupid. Even at 15 million per year there will be plenty of teams that want him after the cap goes up.

If someone could put that in writing I'd say take a chance. Pouring good money after bad hoping someone will bail you out when it goes south will usually get your tighty-whiteys in a wringer every time.

If we don't sign him we still don't have cap to sign anyone. Unless you think Kanter is literally worse than no-one, it makes no sense to let him walk. This isn't an investment, this is house money.

If Kanter's defense drops the Thunder out of the top ten defensive teams they have almost a zero shot at a championship.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/06/16/spurs-and-heat-help-prove-that-defense-wins-championships/

I think it will and so, yes, I think he is literally worse than no one. Thirty-seven years of defensive stats back it up. His offense is dazzling, but his defense is putrid. It's like whitewashing a turd. Looks good from a distance but just doesn't pass the up close sniff test.

[spearsy23]

If Kanter's defense drops the Thunder out of the top ten defensive teams they have almost a zero shot at a championship.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/06/16/spurs-and-heat-help-prove-that-defense-wins-championships/

I think it will and so, yes, I think he is literally worse than no one. Thirty-seven years of defensive stats back it up. His offense is dazzling, but his defense is putrid. It's like whitewashing a turd. Looks good from a distance but just doesn't pass the up close sniff test.

Nobody who plays 25 minutes per night is awful enough to single handedly drop a team's defense outside of the top ten. Kanter is a terrible defender, nobody is denying that. But you're overstating his negative impact.

[Zack M]

Resign kanter....for Westbrook sake

Westbrook averaged over 10 apg...since we acquired the center

[bondom34]

Well that's just an awful reason to keep him. Again, they need a backup big, but Westbrook's numbers are the least of the concerns.

[Marcus50]

At the end of the day, sure we can prepare for the most unlikely scenario, but why would we ignore needs based on the 1% chance that KD doesn't get healthy? That said, I still want a hybrid 2/3 because Waiters sucks, Lamb probably isn't the answer either, we need 2's who can keep up physically with Lebron, and as much as I love Robes getting a version of him that shoots 35% from three puts this team squarely ahead of everyone else. The only other need is backup point, and that's only because DJ may not be back after next season and you'd prefer not to have a rookie at that position.

Again, since this seems to be ultra hard for you to grasp.

No one would be ignoring anything.
The one position we do not have a legitimate two players deep in, is the 3.

Russ-DJ. Two legit players. One franchise. One starter quality.
Waiters-Roberson-Morrow. Three legit players. One potential sixth man type material. One starter quality defensive role player. One 3pt specialist.
KD-PJ3. One franchise. One.... kinda all over the place right now.
Ibaka-McGary. Two legit players. One franchise. One starter quality (at least by what we saw in his short period playing)
Kanter-Adams. Two legit players. One becoming franchise. One starter quality.

I want PJ3 to be our full time back up 3. I would love for him to start showing what he showed us in college and in the summer league. But until then, we need to bring in a full time back up 3 that is more reliable than "we dont really know how he's going to turn out".

Overly optimistic to think Kanter will ever become a franchise quality player. He is a one way player who may improve to a below average defender but franchise is way off the mark. For that matter nor is Serge going to be a franchise player. We have two franchise level players in Russ and KD and some very good role players to back them up.

[Marcus50]

Remember 10 million under this cap is like 16 million under next years cap. So if they pay Kanter 15 million it's about on par for the future. I think Thunder sit back and see if anyone gives an offer sheet. I found anyone would because the Thunder will match and trade @ the deadline.

I think Kanter wants to stay here. Utah didn't let him play back to the basket last year and really never because that is Favors strength and Utah already had him locked up.

When you do the maths even under the increased cap levels that are currently projected Kanter is expensive at over 10M-12M. People seem to be forgetting that we have to re sign KD, Russ and Serge in the next 3 years. 2 if not three are max contract players and the most important to keep in the franchise, everyone else is tradeable. I expect Presti to offer Kanter 4/48 (about the same as the rumored offer to Reggie Jackson) which leaves Kanter with a decision to make. I am not sure there are many other teams that will go after him and Presti retains the trump card so it will be interesting to watch.

Of more interest to Presti will be Kanters attitude if he is not signed straight away and/or he comes off the bench behind Adams, will we see some of the same issues that emerged at the Jazz or will Kanter really develop into a team first player. To me this is the most important issue because to win the Championship this team needs to all be on the same page. Kanter has great offensive tools and can be a significant contributor to the team so I hope he gets resigned but on realistic terms given his defensive frailty

[tleikheen]

With the rules having changed and every team looking to play with pace ....37 years of defensive statistics don't mean the same And maybe I look at OKC different because if you cant' stop OKC from scoring your in trouble with them. And if you can't keep them off the boards and keep giving Westbrook,Durant ,Kanter ,Obaka more scoring opportunities your in trouble.And it is too simplistic to lay the blame on one player .It's a team defense.
Now it was pointed out to you once before and was ignored .....Exum ,all of 19 years old replaced Trey Burke ,probably the worst defensive PG in the NBA and combined with Gobert led Utah's resurgence at defense.If you watched Burke on defense you wouldn't be pointing your finger squarely on Kanter.
All Kanter had to look up too was Hayward and Favors 23 and 24 last year ,not consensus All Stars like Durant and Westbrook.Kanter has respect for those guys. And as far as Durant ,I've never looked at him as selfish (can't always say that about Westbrook),will pass the ball and Kanter will have such a easy time playing one on one with guys who in all likely hood be focused on Durant and Westbrook.If you can't stop OKC from scoring and score with them (if they all stay healthy)then you won't beat them .37 years of basketball defensive statistics don't mean as much in this day and age of pace and the three ball.
San Antonio showed last year and Golden State showed the same this year.

[tleikheen]

This to me is totally stupid as well......if OKC signs Kanter as expected...for say $14 million a year/4 yrs ,it isn't to start behind Adams

[spearsy23]

This to me is totally stupid as well......if OKC signs Kanter as expected...for say $14 million a year/4 yrs ,it isn't to start behind Adams

Irregardless of who starts (and it should be Adams), they'll be splitting time almost evenly.

[Pillendreher]

Fun fact: Synergy Sports has Kanter as an at least decent defender in his time with the Thunder:

-80.8 percentile PnR Roll-Man defense (somehow only 10 % frequency)
-59,6 percentile Post-Up defense (19% frequency)
-91.4 percentile Spot-Up defense (16.8% frequency)
-25,6 percentile Isolation defense (10.8% frequency)

Give both the kid and the franchise some time. I'm sure they can talk some sense into him. Collison and Ibaka have all the time in the world to help him improve his defense. The whole last season was a mess. I want to see Kanter with Ibaka, Robes, Durant and Westbrook beside him (without Westbrook going after every steal like a maniac of course).

[Soonerule]

With the rules having changed and every team looking to play with pace ....37 years of defensive statistics don't mean the same And maybe I look at OKC different because if you cant' stop OKC from scoring your in trouble with them. And if you can't keep them off the boards and keep giving Westbrook,Durant ,Kanter ,Obaka more scoring opportunities your in trouble.And it is too simplistic to lay the blame on one player .It's a team defense.
Now it was pointed out to you once before and was ignored .....Exum ,all of 19 years old replaced Trey Burke ,probably the worst defensive PG in the NBA and combined with Gobert led Utah's resurgence at defense.If you watched Burke on defense you wouldn't be pointing your finger squarely on Kanter.
All Kanter had to look up too was Hayward and Favors 23 and 24 last year ,not consensus All Stars like Durant and Westbrook.Kanter has respect for those guys. And as far as Durant ,I've never looked at him as selfish (can't always say that about Westbrook),will pass the ball and Kanter will have such a easy time playing one on one with guys who in all likely hood be focused on Durant and Westbrook.If you can't stop OKC from scoring and score with them (if they all stay healthy)then you won't beat them .37 years of basketball defensive statistics don't mean as much in this day and age of pace and the three ball.
San Antonio showed last year and Golden State showed the same this year.

So now you want to argue with the best coach in the NBA? That's rich. Pops and the Spurs discovered that lack of rebounding was clearly not their problem. Do you think scoring was their problem? The key is reducing opposing team's shooting percentage first. That's tough to do when you have some deadbeat defensive center giving up layups like free samples on the frozen foods aisle.

Thirty-seven years of defensive statistics don't mean anything to you because they don't back you up. In this day and age of pace and the three ball they mean more than ever and your example of Exum over Burke proves it!

[Soonerule]

This to me is totally stupid as well......if OKC signs Kanter as expected...for say $14 million a year/4 yrs ,it isn't to start behind Adams

Exactly, that's why they shouldn't sign him.

[Soonerule]

Fun fact: Synergy Sports has Kanter as an at least decent defender in his time with the Thunder:

-80.8 percentile PnR Roll-Man defense (somehow only 10 % frequency)
-59,6 percentile Post-Up defense (19% frequency)
-91.4 percentile Spot-Up defense (16.8% frequency)
-25,6 percentile Isolation defense (10.8% frequency)

Give both the kid and the franchise some time. I'm sure they can talk some sense into him. Collison and Ibaka have all the time in the world to help him improve his defense. The whole last season was a mess. I want to see Kanter with Ibaka, Robes, Durant and Westbrook beside him (without Westbrook going after every steal like a maniac of course).

Time is a luxury the Thunder are running out of. Two years ago I may have felt differently.

I have thought about Kanter a lot and I can only come up with one scenario that may explain many of his problems on defense.... a language barrier.

I know he speaks English very well, but I think I see him translating some questions in his mind during interviews, especially complex questions. He still asks interviewers to repeat complex questions. Before I invested anything close to a max contract on him, I would test him. I would hire an expert translator and have him say things to Kanter in English and have him say it back in Turkish to find out how well he is processing information he receives in English.

Communicating is vital when playing defense, and complex at times. If he is out there guessing it could explain why he wanders around like a lost puppy most of the time.

Try an experiment. Use Google translate and write a semi complex sentence in English and have it translate it to Turkish. Then, copy/paste the translation and have it translate it back to English.... it will blow you away. It won't even be close. If Enes is having 10% of the problem Google Translate has translating English to Turkish or vice versa that very well could be the problem.

I would doggone sure find out before I invested an eight digit/yr contract on him because if that isn't the issue, then it's all on Kanter. He has said in every exit interview he has ever done that he would work on his defense and shown little or no improvement. If communication isn't the problem, what would make me believe next year will be any different? Fifth time is a charm?

[spearsy23]

We take things too far to one extreme or another here way too often. Kanter's defense isn't so bad that he can't be a quality player. His on/off last year is misleading in a couple of ways, first he had Gobert and Exum replace him and Burke in Utah, that's like switching from a Buick to a Ferrari defensively. Then, when he got here, we were without 5 of our 6 best defenders for lengthy stretches plus had traded Perkins.

Any way you spin it an 18/9 Center is going to have value, just letting him walk would be the stupidest thing you could do. Javale McGee got 10 million per year despite never being a positive on offense or defense, and you think nobody will trade for Kanter at 12 million?