2015 APM/RAPM/etc.

RebelWithACause · Post #141 » by **RebelWithACause** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:23 pm

SideshowBob wrote:2015 PI RAPM posted as well.

Isn't this multiyear again as well?!

Post #142 » by **bondom34** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:29 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
colts18 wrote:I'm guessing it's because of Durant. It's most likely due to his first 2 seasons where he was among the worst players in the league. His raw plus/minus numbers those years are atrocious. Since 2010, he has done fine in that area. Once he was moved from SG, he started to thrive.

Yeah him for sure, Westbrook too, Aldridge as well. Plus I never really realized how good Baron Davis was I think as well as Jeff Foster.

If you never realized how good Baron was you may not trust your eye-test anymore and maybe should really rely solely on numbers

Honestly never watched a ton of him either, so I suppose that's part of it too, but better than Wade....

RebelWithACause · Post #143 » by **RebelWithACause** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:36 pm

Baron in his prime, was basically the IQ version of Westbrook as far as playmaking is concerned.

Almost as athletic as Westbrook, never as good of a slasher though, same shot consistency issues as WB, better handle and a better passer/ playmaker.
Add to that that his defense was pretty consistent most of the time and he could guard 1-3s due to his insane strength, even 4s on switches (Dirk says hello) and it's understandable he ranks so high.

Higher than Wade:
Wade is dragged down by his recent years I presume, but even so, this is not a player-ranking stat, so I feel like you just want to stir things up again?!

Offense:
Wade 4.69
Baron 4.22
Westbrook 4.11

So yeah, this looks like I expected it. Wade shows inconsistent/worse defense than Baron, which makes sense , coasting/injuries/heavier load, but checks out better offensively.
Baron also checks out better than WB offensively and defensively, which is what I expected.
Offensively his superior playmaking seems to give him a small edge.

SideshowBob · Post #144 » by **SideshowBob** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:39 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:2015 PI RAPM posted as well.

Isn't this multiyear again as well?!

Perhaps, but fpliii requested PI RAPM so unless Engelmann says different I'll just assume its that (I asked him about it so we'll see). As of now I believe its 2015 PI RAPM with 2014 as a base year, so no influence from anything outside those two years.

Dr Spaceman · Post #145 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:51 pm

bondom34 wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Yeah him for sure, Westbrook too, Aldridge as well. Plus I never really realized how good Baron Davis was I think as well as Jeff Foster.

If you never realized how good Baron was you may not trust your eye-test anymore and maybe should really rely solely on numbers

Honestly never watched a ton of him either, so I suppose that's part of it too, but better than Wade....

Fun fact: Steve Nash says Baron Davis was the most difficult player he guarded in his career

RebelWithACause · Post #146 » by **RebelWithACause** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:52 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:2015 PI RAPM posted as well.

Isn't this multiyear again as well?!

Perhaps, but fpliii requested PI RAPM so unless Engelmann says different I'll just assume its that (I asked him about it so we'll see). As of now I believe its 2015 PI RAPM with 2014 as a base year, so no influence from anything outside those two years.

The spreadsheet says multiyear vanilla.

SideshowBob · Post #147 » by **SideshowBob** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 4:59 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:The spreadsheet says multiyear vanilla.

Updated the post. If that is the case, then it should be compared to this set from last year and this set from this year (from mid January).

Curry/James/Paul had some monster stretches in the 2nd half of the season.

RebelWithACause · Post #148 » by **RebelWithACause** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:00 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:
If you never realized how good Baron was you may not trust your eye-test anymore and maybe should really rely solely on numbers

Honestly never watched a ton of him either, so I suppose that's part of it too, but better than Wade....

Fun fact: Steve Nash says Baron Davis was the most difficult player he guarded in his career

May I ask what you think of Baron and how he compares to other point guards (like Westbrook for example)?

RebelWithACause · Post #149 » by **RebelWithACause** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:01 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:The spreadsheet says multiyear vanilla.

Updated the post. If that is the case, then it should be compared to this set from last year and this set from this year (from mid January).

Curry/James/Paul had some monster stretches in the 2nd half of the season.

Actually the results had me guessing and then I saw the spreadsheet saying multiyear.

SideshowBob · Post #150 » by **SideshowBob** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:03 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:The spreadsheet says multiyear vanilla.

Updated the post. If that is the case, then it should be compared to this set from last year and this set from this year (from mid January).

Curry/James/Paul had some monster stretches in the 2nd half of the season.

Actually the results had me guessing and then I saw the spreadsheet saying multiyear.

Yeah I saw it earlier and the results seemed similar to the earlier 15 MY set that he posted but I was hesitant to call it that because he responded to fpliii's request for PI RAPM. Perhaps after seeing my post he'll post an actual PI set.

ceiling raiser · Post #151 » by **ceiling raiser** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 6:20 pm

Thanks for sharing SSB. Not sure if that's an updated version of what we saw around the ASB or something else. Hopefully he responds to you (the one other set I wanted to ask him about was 07 since I believe his set had wonky results, hough maybe I'm misremembering). Maybe a playoffs possessions only 15-year RAPM would be interesting too?

Davis again looks good but not great. Some of it is him being held back by his prior/old possessions (as we've seen before, but I'm second-guessing putting him in my POY ballot again), since he looks terrific in NPI. Though, I guess Kawhi is no longer basically at the top of the league, so maybe leaving AD in is reasonable enough.

JLei · Post #152 » by **JLei** » Tue Jun 23, 2015 7:57 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:
Updated the post. If that is the case, then it should be compared to this set from last year and this set from this year (from mid January).

Curry/James/Paul had some monster stretches in the 2nd half of the season.

Actually the results had me guessing and then I saw the spreadsheet saying multiyear.

Yeah I saw it earlier and the results seemed similar to the earlier 15 MY set that he posted but I was hesitant to call it that because he responded to fpliii's request for PI RAPM. Perhaps after seeing my post he'll post an actual PI set.

Jeebus. Post break Bron must have been like a +10-11 lol. Which actually isn't a complete shock if you looked at his on-off. Or if you know watched him play. Most of this board didn't with their blatant disrespect until the Finals.

ceiling raiser · Post #153 » by **ceiling raiser** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 2:45 pm

J.E. posted NPI for each season from 01-15 earlier this morning:

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/11181n4avq5wefk/AAAZ4muMkVh3aNDYIzq_NNHEa?dl=0

SideshowBob · Post #154 » by **SideshowBob** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:07 pm

Different 2015 results for JE vs. Evan. May be the case that they're using different lambdas, also could be different weights on playoff games.

Post #155 » by **bondom34** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 3:20 pm

Yeah, again I'm coming to not trusting the NPI very much. Seeing massive swings in 2 versions of the same stat is not really giving me much assurance there's too much validity. Just an example using 2 that really stood out:
JE has Manu at 2.64, Westbrook 2.96

Evan has Manu at 8.22, Westbrook at 1.00

So, yeah.... :dontknow:

lorak · Post #156 » by **lorak** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:19 pm

bondom34 wrote:Yeah, again I'm coming to not trusting the NPI very much.

And I'm not trusting any version of RAPM at all

I wonder what PI results J.E. would have for '98-'00 so we can compare it with what accrossthecourt did. Or it would be good to see how RAPM for one season would change with adding more and more seasons to prior - so for example 2015 RAPM with '14 as prior vs 2015 RAPM with '13-'14 as prior and so on.

BTW, that new NPI RAPM has different results than what J.E. did some time ago :crazy:

Post #157 » by **bondom34** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 4:24 pm

lorak wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Yeah, again I'm coming to not trusting the NPI very much.

And I'm not trusting any version of RAPM at all

I wonder what PI results J.E. would have for '98-'00 so we can compare it with what accrossthecourt did. Or it would be good to see how RAPM for one season would change with adding more and more seasons to prior - so for example 2015 RAPM with '14 as prior vs 2015 RAPM with '13-'14 as prior and so on.

BTW, that new NPI RAPM has different results than what J.E. did some time ago

I'm trusting minimally, I think it gives a ballpark (very ballpark) estimate. I've become more a fan of RPM just because its more accessible, and mainly for defense. But honestly with results like this I'm just not seeing it being worth trusting at this point. If PI isn't going to give a real representation of only one season, and NPI is too small a sample that the results look like a half random assortment of names at times (that's an exaggeration obviously but the point stands) then I'm just not seeing it. Two people, same stat, huge difference in results.

lorak · Post #158 » by **lorak** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:07 pm

Best NPI ever? Lamar Odom in 2009: +8.1. 2011 Dirk is 2nd with +7.6, then Manu 2005, Curry 2015, KG 2003, LJx2 (09-10), Duncan 2005 (interesting, two GOAT level players at the same time played for SAS), Wade 2005 and KG 2008 as last of top 10.

colts18 · Post #159 » by **colts18** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:13 pm

lorak wrote:Best NPI ever? Lamar Odom in 2009: +8.1. 2011 Dirk is 2nd with +7.6, then Manu 2005, Curry 2015, KG 2003, LJx2 (09-10), Duncan 2005 (interesting, two GOAT level players at the same time played for SAS), Wade 2005 and KG 2008 as last of top 10.

It's not a huge surprise to me. Look at this list:

Top 5 in On court Net rating per 100 (Min. 1500 MP):
1. 05 Duncan +16.9
2. 96 Pippen +16.8
3. 96 Jordan +16.7
T4. 15 Curry +16.6
T4. 05 Ginobili +16.6

05 Duncan had a higher net rating than even 96 MJ. Manu was on the same level too (ironically the Spurs were better in the games he missed). When they both played, the Spurs were +20.6.

Ryoga Hibiki · Post #160 » by **Ryoga Hibiki** » Thu Jun 25, 2015 5:24 pm

Shaq seems to be the only center who's a clear positive on offence.